## Figure 2.5. Effects of Household Debt on GDP Growth and Consumption

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 2.5. Effects of Household Debt on GDP Growth and Consumption](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-5.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-5.pdf.md)
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### 1. Impact on Real GDP Growth (Regression coefficients)
- Vertical axis ticks shown: –0.3, –0.2, –0.1, 0.1, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2
- Horizontal axis horizon labels: tt + 1t + 2t + 3t + 4t + 5t + 6
- Grouping labels: AllAEsEMEs

### 2. Impact on Real Consumption Growth (Regression coefficients)
- Vertical axis ticks shown: –0.3, –0.2, –0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3
- Horizontal axis horizon labels: tt + 1t + 2t + 3t + 4t + 5t + 6
- Grouping labels: AllAEsEMEs

### 3. Impact on Unemployment (Regression coefficients)
- Vertical axis ticks shown: –0.1, 0.1, 0.2
- Horizontal axis horizon labels: tt + 1t + 2t + 3t + 4t + 5t + 6
- Grouping labels: tt + 1t + 2t + 3t + 4t + 5t + 6 and AllAEsEMEs

### 4. Quantile Regression of Real GDP Growth (Regression coefficients, 15th, 50th, and 85th quantiles)
- Vertical axis ticks shown: –0.2, –0.1, 0.1, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2, 0.3
- Repeated numeric sequence shown: 0.150.500.850.150.500.850.150.500.850.150.500.850.150.500.850.150.500.850.150.500.850.150.500.85
- Grouping labels: AllAEsEMEsAllAEsEMEsAllAEsEMEs
- Specific horizon label indicated: tt + 2 and t + 4
- Unit label: Percent

### 5. Demand and Supply Effects (Regression coefficients)
- Vertical axis ticks shown: –0.5, –0.4, –0.3, –0.2, –0.1
- Alternative vertical axis ticks shown: –0.5, –0.3, –0.1, 0.1, 0.0, 0.3, 0.5
- Horizontal axis ticks shown as a percentage-like sequence: <10102030405060708090100
- Panel title: JointSupplyDemand

### 6. Real GDP Growth Threshold Effects (Regression coefficients at various household debt-to-GDP levels)
- Depicts coefficient estimates from a panel regression conditioning effects on changes in household debt, interacted with various debt thresholds.
- Colored bars indicate statistical significance at the 10 percent level or higher.
- Note: Panels 1, 2, and 3 are from panel regressions of rolling three-year real GDP growth (consumption and unemployment, respectively) up to six years ahead, on lagged changes in household and corporate debt-to-GDP ratios (over a three-year period), controlling for lags of the dependent variable, and country and time fixed effects.
- Panel 4 shows quantile regression coefficient estimates for changes in the household debt ratio, using the same specification as the panel regression model.
- Panel 5 breaks down changes in household debt-to-GDP ratios into supply and demand factors, where local financial conditions are assumed to signal supply-side factors, and the residual to reflect other (demand) factors.
- Panel 6 shows coefficient estimates from a panel regression estimation, conditioning the effect on changes in household debt, and interacted with various debt thresholds.

*Sources: Bank for International Settlements; CEIC Data Co. Ltd.; Economic Cycle Research Institute; Haver Analytics; IMF, World Economic Outlook database; Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database; Penn World Table; and IMF staff calculations.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-5.pdf_