## Figure 3.4. Higher Price of Risk is a Significant Predictor of Downside Growth Risks within One Year

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 3.4. Higher Price of Risk is a Significant Predictor of Downside Growth Risks within One Year](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-4.csv)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-4.csv.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-4.csv.json)

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### Data context
- Worksheet: csv
- Subsample/title within sheet: 1. Advanced Economies: One Quarter Ahead
- Model output: (Quantile Regression Coefficients)
- Quantiles reported: 0.10, 0.20, 0.25, 0.40, 0.50, 0.60, 0.75, 0.80, 0.90

### Key statistics (Quantile -> Coefficient / High / Low)
- 0.10 -> Coefficient: -0.300058133; High: -0.269284221; Low: -0.330832045
- 0.20 -> Coefficient: -0.249003847; High: -0.224888934; Low: -0.273118761
- 0.25 -> Coefficient: -0.25075567; High: -0.228382272; Low: -0.273129069
- 0.40 -> Coefficient: -0.156320101; High: -0.136231277; Low: -0.176408925
- 0.50 -> Coefficient: -0.151067726; High: -0.131466292; Low: -0.170669159
- 0.60 -> Coefficient: -0.130366767; High: -0.111150708; Low: -0.149582826
- 0.75 -> Coefficient: -0.059468774; High: -0.037897286; Low: -0.081040261
- 0.80 -> Coefficient: -0.045438833; High: -0.021851009; Low: -0.069026657
- 0.90 -> Coefficient: -0.054388599; High: -0.022045277; Low: -0.086731922

### Substantive findings
- Coefficients are negative across all reported quantiles (0.10 through 0.90), indicating that a higher price of risk is associated with downside growth outcomes one quarter ahead for advanced economies.
- The magnitude of negative coefficients is larger at lower quantiles (e.g., -0.300058133 at 0.10) and declines toward higher quantiles (e.g., -0.045438833 at 0.80), consistent with stronger predictive power for downside risks.
- High and Low rows provide upper and lower bounds for each quantile coefficient, e.g., at 0.10 the range is between -0.269284221 (High) and -0.330832045 (Low).

*Source: figure3-4 (CSV dataset), https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-4.csv*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-4.csv_