## annexfigures1-4

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [annexfigures1-4](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/annexfigures1-4.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/annexfigures1-4.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/annexfigures1-4.pdf.json)

---

### Annex Figure 3.1.1. Conditional Densities of Growth with High and Low Asset Prices—One-Period-Ahead Forecasts (Frequency)
- Panel labels:
  - 1. High Asset Prices
  - 2. Low Asset Prices
  - 3. Unconditional
- Horizontal axis label repeated across panels: One-period-ahead output (Normalized; steady state = 1.0)
- Numeric axis tick values shown in figure text:
  - 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05
- Vertical axis tick values shown in figure text:
  - 0, 1, 2, 3, (and 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 in other panels)
  - Multipliers indicated: × 10^4 (appearing three times)
- Source: IMF staff estimates.

### Annex Figure 3.1.2. One-Period-Ahead GDP and Financial Conditions (Normalized; steady state = 1.0)
- Panel 1. Risk Premium
  - Caption: Increasing risk premiums signal a more pessimistic growth outlook ...
  - Numeric axis tick values shown in figure text for output scale:
    - 0.90 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.06
  - Numeric axis tick values shown in figure text for risk premium:
    - 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08
  - Additional numeric values in figure text: 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14
- Panel 2. Credit-to-Output Ratio
  - Caption continuation: ... as does elevated leverage.
  - Credit-to-output numeric tick values shown: 0.080.100.120.14 (presented without separators in source)
- Repeated horizontal label: One-period-ahead output
- Source: IMF staff estimates.

### Annex Figure 3.1.3. Asset Prices and Credit Aggregates before and after a Financial Crisis
- Note from figure:
  - The crisis happens in period 5 (t) in the figures.
  - The crisis is defined as a period in which output declines by more than 3 percent.
  - The red dashed lines denote steady-state values.
- Caption summary: Severe economic contractions are preceded by several periods of excessive leverage and, shortly before the crisis, by sharply rising risk premiums.
- Panel 1. Output (Normalized; steady state = 1.0)
  - Time axis labels shown: t – 4 t – 3 t – 2 t – 1 t t + 1 t + 2 t + 3 t + 4
  - Output numeric tick values shown in figure text: 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00
- Panel 2. Credit-to-Output Ratio (Normalized; steady state = 1.0)
  - Time axis labels shown: t – 4 t – 3 t – 2 t – 1 t t + 1 t + 2 t + 3 t + 4
  - Credit-to-output numeric tick values shown in figure text: 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05
- Panel 3. Risk Premium (Percent)
  - Time axis labels shown: t – 4 t – 3 t – 2 t – 1 t t + 1 t + 2 t + 3 t + 4
  - Risk premium numeric tick values shown in figure text: 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10
- Additional numeric series or markers in figure text: 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2
- Source: IMF staff estimates.

### Annex Figure 3.1.4. Simple Debt Tax Ameliorates Risk of Leverage-Induced Recessions
- Panel descriptions and labels:
  - 1. Output (Normalized; steady state = 1.0)
  - 2. Asset Prices (Normalized; steady state = 1.0)
  - 3. Credit-to-Output Ratio (Normalized; steady state = 1.0)
  - 4. Inflation (Percent)
- Comparative series label appearing in figure text: Baseline Simple
- Output and asset-price numeric tick values shown in figure text:
  - 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00
  - Additional output scale: 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10
- Time axis labels shown: t – 4 t – 3 t – 2 t – 1 t t + 1 t + 2 t + 3 t + 4
- Source: IMF staff estimates.

*Source: IMF staff estimates.*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/annexfigures1-4.pdf_