## Figure 3.2. Risk of Severe Recessions Is Especially Sensitive to a Tightening of Financial Conditions in Major Advanced and Emerging Market Economies

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 3.2. Risk of Severe Recessions Is Especially Sensitive to a Tightening of Financial Conditions in Major Advanced and Emerging Market Economies](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-2.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-2.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-2.pdf.json)

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### Key message
- One-year-ahead density forecasts indicate that downside and upside risks (5th and 95th percentiles) around the median GDP growth forecast are strongly affected by tightening financial conditions in major advanced and emerging market economies.
- Left scale = percent; right scale = standard deviations.

### Presentation details and axes (preserve original ticks and date labels)
- Vertical ticks / labels shown in panels (examples preserved exactly as presented):
  - –9, –6, –3, 0, 3, 6, 9
  - –15, –10, –5, 0, 5, 10, 15
  - –10, –5, 0, 5, 10, 15
  - –6, –4, –2, 0, 2, 4, 6, 8
  - –5, 0, 5, 10, 15
  - –8, –4, 0, 4, 8
  - –8, –4, 0, 4, 8, 12
  - –4, 0, 4, 8, 12
  - –20, –10, 0, 10, 20
  - –18, –12, –6, 0, 6, 12, 18
  - –10, –5, 0, 5, 10
  - –4, 0, 4, 8, 12
- Horizontal date/time labels preserved exactly as shown:
  - 1991:Q1
  - 93:Q1
  - 95:Q1
  - 97:Q1
  - 99:Q1
  - 2001:Q1
  - 03:Q1
  - 05:Q1
  - 07:Q1
  - 09:Q1
  - 11:Q1
  - 13:Q1
  - 15:Q1
  - 16:Q4
  - 1973:Q1
  - 75:Q1
  - 77:Q1
  - 79:Q1
  - 81:Q1
  - 83:Q1
  - 85:Q1
  - 87:Q1
  - 89:Q1
  - 91:Q1
  - 93:Q1
  - 95:Q1
  - 97:Q1
  - 99:Q1

### Forecast components (methodology notes preserved)
- Country-specific financial conditions indices (FCIs) are constructed using the methodology described in Annex 3.2.
- The median (red) line at each point in time denotes the forecast of the 50th quantile of GDP growth made four quarters earlier using the methodology described in Annex 3.3.
- The shaded area is bound at the top and bottom by, respectively, the forecasts of the 95th and 5th quantiles of GDP growth made four quarters earlier.

### Legend elements shown on the figure
- Downside and upside risks (5th and 95th percentiles)
- Median
- FCI (right scale)

### Countries illustrated (panel order)
- 1. Brazil
- 2. Australia
- 3. South Africa
- 4. Sweden
- 5. Turkey
- 6. United States

### Data sources
- Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Haver Analytics; IMF, Global Data Source and World Economic Outlook databases; Thomson Reuters Datastream; and IMF staff estimates.

*Figure 3.2 (figure3-2).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-2.pdf_