## Figure 3.3. In Emerging Market Economies, Changes in Financial Conditions Also Affect Upside Risks (Quantile regression estimates for selected emerging market economies: four quarters ahead)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 3.3. In Emerging Market Economies, Changes in Financial Conditions Also Affect Upside Risks (Quantile regression estimates for selected emerging market economies: four quarters ahead)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-3.pdf)

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- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-3.pdf.md)
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### Summary description
- The panels depict estimated coefficients on the current quarter financial conditions index (FCI) from quantile regressions of four-quarters-ahead GDP growth on current quarter FCI and GDP growth.
- The coefficients are standardized to depict the impact of a one standard deviation increase in current quarter FCIs on four-quarters-ahead GDP growth (also expressed in standard deviations).

### Quantile and axis values shown in the figure
- Vertical axis tick values (upper-left style): –0.8, –0.6, –0.4, –0.2, 0.0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6
- Vertical axis tick values (second column style): –1.6, –1.4, –1.2, –1.0, –0.8, –0.6, –0.4, –0.2, 0.0
- Percentile markers shown: 5th25th50th75th95th (repeated across panels)
- Vertical axis tick values (third column style): –2.5, –2.0, –1.5, –1.0, –0.5, 0.0, 0.5, 1.0
- Vertical axis tick values (fourth column style): –1.0, –0.5, 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5

### Panels / Economies covered
- 1. Brazil
- 2. Chile
- 3. Mexico
- 4. Korea
  - Note: In line with Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) markets classification criteria, Korea is classified as an emerging market economy in panel 4.

### Interpretative findings implied by the figure
- Quantile regression coefficients vary across percentiles (5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th), indicating heterogeneity in how current quarter FCIs affect four-quarters-ahead GDP growth across the distribution of GDP outcomes.
- Standardization implies coefficients measure the impact of a one standard deviation increase in current quarter FCI on four-quarters-ahead GDP growth expressed in standard deviations.
- The range of axis values (from –2.5 up to 1.5 across panels) indicates that estimated impacts differ in magnitude and sign across economies and percentiles.

*Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Haver Analytics; IMF, Global Data Source and World Economic Outlook databases; Thomson Reuters Datastream; and IMF staff estimates.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-3.pdf_