## Figure 3.6. Waning Global Risk Appetite Signals Imminent Downside Risks to Growth

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**Canonical URL:** [Figure 3.6. Waning Global Risk Appetite Signals Imminent Downside Risks to Growth](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-6.pdf)

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### 1. Advanced Economies: One Quarter Ahead (External conditions = VIX)
- Depiction:
  - Coefficient estimates on the VIX index from pooled quantile regressions of one-quarter-ahead GDP growth for advanced economies.
  - Quantiles shown: 0.1, 0.2, 0.25, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.75, 0.8, 0.9.
  - Vertical axis ticks shown: –0.4, –0.3, –0.2, –0.1, 0.0, 0.1, 0.2.
- Interpretation and technical details:
  - Coefficients are standardized by centering and reducing (zero mean, unit variance) both the dependent variable and the regressors to enable comparison across quantiles, across time horizons, and between advanced and emerging market economies.
  - A coefficient estimate for a given quantile is the impact of a one standard deviation change in the VIX on the future quantile of GDP growth also expressed in terms of standard deviations.
  - The vertical lines in the green bars denote confidence intervals at 10 percent; where they cross the x-axis they correspond to absence of statistical significance of the regressor.
  - VIX = Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index.

### 2. Emerging Market Economies: One Quarter Ahead (External conditions = VIX)
- Depiction:
  - Coefficient estimates on the VIX index from pooled quantile regressions of one-quarter-ahead GDP growth for emerging market economies.
  - Quantiles shown: 0.1, 0.2, 0.25, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.75, 0.8, 0.9.
  - Vertical axis ticks shown: –0.4, –0.3, –0.2, –0.1, 0.0, 0.1, 0.2.
- Interpretation and technical details:
  - Coefficients are standardized by centering and reducing (zero mean, unit variance) both the dependent variable and the regressors to enable comparison across quantiles, across time horizons, and between advanced and emerging market economies.
  - A coefficient estimate for a given quantile is the impact of a one standard deviation change in the VIX on the future quantile of GDP growth also expressed in terms of standard deviations.
  - The vertical lines in the green bars denote confidence intervals at 10 percent; where they cross the x-axis they correspond to absence of statistical significance of the regressor.
  - VIX = Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index.

*Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Haver Analytics; IMF, Global Data Source and World Economic Outlook databases; Thomson Reuters Datastream; and IMF staff estimates.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-6.pdf_