## Figure 3.7. Probability Densities of GDP Growth for the Depths of the Global Financial Crisis

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 3.7. Probability Densities of GDP Growth for the Depths of the Global Financial Crisis](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-7.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-7.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-7.pdf.json)

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### Description
- Title reproduced: "Figure 3.7. Probability Densities of GDP Growth for the Depths of the Global Financial Crisis (Probability)"
- Time reference in caption: one-quarter-ahead conditional forecast density (at 2008:Q4) predicting growth in 2009:Q1.
- Series shown:
  - One-quarter-ahead conditional forecast density (at 2008:Q4): without FCI
  - One-quarter-ahead conditional forecast density (at 2008:Q4): with FCI
  - Realized value (black vertical line)
- Color coding described:
  - Blue density = model with single regressor (one-quarter-lagged GDP growth)
  - Red density = model with two regressors (one-quarter-lagged GDP growth and one-quarter-lagged FCI)
- Sources listed: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Haver Analytics; IMF, Global Data Source and World Economic Outlook databases; Thomson Reuters Datastream; and IMF staff estimates.

### Methodology (as stated)
- The figure displays conditional probability distributions of one-quarter-ahead GDP growth based on a parametric, T-skew density, fitted over quantile regression estimates as described in Annex 3.3.
- It includes two conditional distributions of growth based on two forecasting models that use either growth or growth and financial conditions indices (FCIs) to predict future growth (in 2009:Q1).
- The figure also includes the realized values of GDP growth (black vertical line).

### Key statistics and axis values (preserved exactly as in the source)
- Vertical probability axis tick values shown: 0.05, 0.10, 0.00, 0.00, 0.15, 0.20
- Horizontal GDP growth (quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change) axis tick values shown: –15.0–12.5–10.0–7.5–5.0–2.50.02.55.07.510.012.515.0
- Secondary vertical axis tick values shown: 0.02, 0.04, 0.06, 0.08, 0.10, 0.12, 0.14
- Secondary horizontal GDP growth axis tick values shown (repeated): –15.0–12.5–10.0–7.5–5.0–2.50.02.55.07.510.012.515.0

### Findings highlighted in the figure caption
- 1. United States: "Accounting for financial conditions generates a more pessimistic outlook for risks to growth one quarter before 2009:Q1."
- 2. Chile (label present; no additional text provided in the figure content)

*Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Haver Analytics; IMF, Global Data Source and World Economic Outlook databases; Thomson Reuters Datastream; and IMF staff estimates.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-7.pdf_