## figure3-8

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [figure3-8](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-8.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-8.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-8.pdf.json)

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### Coverage and purpose
- Figure 3.8. In-Sample and Recursive Out-of-Sample Quantile Forecasts: One Quarter Ahead (Percent)
- This figure shows the estimates of the 5th (bottom), 50th (middle), and 95th (top) quantiles of GDP growth based on the quantile regression model where one-quarter-ahead GDP growth is regressed on current date financial conditions index and GDP growth.
- Estimation modes shown: In-sample estimation and Real-time estimation.

### Countries illustrated (legend mapping)
- 1. Germany
- 2. Brazil
- 3. United Kingdom
- 4. Chile
- 5. Sweden
- 6. Turkey
- 7. United States
- 8. South Africa

### Axis and scale markers (preserved exactly as shown)
- Vertical axis markers appearing across panels include: –40, –30, –20, –15, –10, –5, 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40
- Time axis ticks (quarters) appearing across panels include exact labels such as:
  - 1973:Q1 75:Q2 77:Q3 79:Q4 82:Q1 84:Q2 86:Q3 88:Q4 91:Q1 93:Q2 95:Q3 97:Q4 2000:Q1 02:Q2 04:Q3 06:Q4 09:Q1 11:Q2 13:Q3 15:Q4
  - 1991:Q1 92:Q2 93:Q3 94:Q4 96:Q1 97:Q2 98:Q3 99:Q4 2001:Q1 02:Q2 03:Q3 04:Q4 06:Q1 07:Q2 08:Q3 09:Q4 11:Q1 12:Q2 13:Q3 14:Q4 16:Q1
  - 1981:Q1 83:Q3 86:Q1 88:Q3 91:Q1 93:Q3 96:Q1 98:Q3 2001:Q1 03:Q3 06:Q1 08:Q3 11:Q1 13:Q1 16:Q1
  (Panels contain variations of these quarter labels as shown.)

### Key methodological note (preserved verbatim)
- Note: This figure shows the estimates of the 5th (bottom), 50th (middle), and 95th (top) quantiles of GDP growth based on the quantile regression model where one-quarter-ahead GDP growth is regressed on current date financial conditions index and GDP growth.

### Data sources (preserved exactly)
- Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Haver Analytics; IMF, Global Data Source and World Economic Outlook databases; Thomson Reuters Datastream; and IMF staff estimates.

*Figure 3.8 (PDF figure content).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-8.pdf_