## Figure 1.2. Growth-at-Risk

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1.2. Growth-at-Risk](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/ch1/pdf/figure1-2.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/ch1/pdf/figure1-2.pdf.md)
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### 1. Percentiles of One-Year-Ahead Growth Forecast Densities (Percent)
- 5th percentile
- Median
- 95th percentile
- Quintiles
- WorstBest
- Axis range shown: –14, –12, –10, –8, –6, –4, –2, 0, 2, 4, 6
- Time labels shown: 1991 93 95 97 99 2001 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 18 Q1

### 2. Growth Forecast Densities at 2018:Q1 (Probability)
- Forecast path at 2018:Q1
- At 2017:Q3
- At 2016:Q4
- One year ahead
- Three years ahead
- Probability axis values shown: 0.0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 1.2
- Additional axis markers shown: –10 1 2 3 4 5 6 (displayed as –10123456)
- Percent label: Percent
- Numerical markers adjacent to horizon labels: –0.65, 0.35, 1.35, 2.35, 3.35 (associated with One year ahead, Two years ahead, Three years ahead formatting)

### 3. Severely Adverse Growth Outcomes (5th Percentile) at Different Future Horizons (Percent)
- 5th percentile
- One year ahead
- Three years ahead
- Text excerpts from figure captions:
  - "Growth-at-risk (GaR) refers to the set of outcomes that fall into the 5th percentile of (conditional) forecast densities of global growth."
  - "Panel 2 presents forecast densities for growth, one and three years ahead."
  - "But easy financial conditions also raise the odds of adverse growth outcomes in the medium term—the three-year-ahead growth distribution has a much fatter left tail than the one-year-ahead growth distribution."
  - "Medium-term risks to growth have increased in recent years ..."
  - "... and are well above historical norms, given the current financial conditions."

### 4. GaR Forecasts of Severely Adverse Growth Outcomes: Percentile Ranks
- "In panel 4, the color shading depicts the percentile rank for the 5th percentile threshold of densities for one-year- and three-year-ahead growth. Red denotes lower growth outcomes."
- One year ahead
- Three years ahead
- Time labels shown: 1991 92 93 94 95 96 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 97 98 99 2000 01 02 15 16 17 18 09 10 11 12 13 14 (as presented in the figure: 199192939495960304050607089798992000010215161718091011121314)

### Key interpretive points and statements displayed in the figure
- "Supportive financial conditions tend to dampen the near-term risks, with growth-at-risk forecasting the severely adverse outcome (for example, with 5 percent probability) for global growth at about 3 percent or less one year ahead."
- "One year ahead"
- "Three years ahead"

*Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff estimates.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/ch1/pdf/figure1-2.pdf_