## Figure 1.4. Market Interest Rates, Central Bank Balance Sheets, and US Financial Indicators

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1.4. Market Interest Rates, Central Bank Balance Sheets, and US Financial Indicators](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/ch1/pdf/figure1-4.pdf)

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### 1. Change in Central Banks’ Balance Sheet Assets
- Panel label: (Trillions of US dollars)
- Time labels shown: 2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
- Series annotation: Aggregate stock as a share of GDP (percent, right scale)
- Numeric axis markers visible: 0, 4, 8, 12, 16, 10, 20, 30, 40
- Summary statement from figure: "Easy global financial conditions are underpinned by advanced economy central banks’ large asset holdings."

### 2. Estimated Average Short-Term Interest Rates through Two Years
- Panel label: (Percent)
- Time labels shown: 2014 15 16 17 18
- Numeric axis markers visible: 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, –0  .4, 0.0, 0.4, 0.8, 1.2, 1.6
- Series referenced: United States; United Kingdom; Euro area; Japan; Aggregate stock; United States (left scale); Euro area (left scale); Japan (right scale)
- Summary statement from figure: "Policy rate expectations still point to gradual rate hikes."

### 3. Estimated 10-Year Term Premiums
- Panel label: (Percent)
- Note: "Panel 3 is based on IMF staff estimates of four-factor term structure models based on the Adrian, Crump and Moench (2013) model, using underlying Bloomberg fitted yield curve series from the early 1990s."
- Time labels shown: Mar. 1983, Feb. 1988, Feb. 1994, Jun. 1999, Jun. 2004, Dec. 2015
- Series referenced: United States (left scale); Euro area (left scale); Japan (right scale)
- Summary statement from figure: "Term premiums have remained compressed in major economies and are near historic lows."

### 4. Financial Conditions and US Federal Funds Rate
- Panel label: Index (month of first hike = 100) / Months relative to first hike
- Axis markers visible: –6–30 36 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
- Series and markers: Index (month of first hike = 100); Months relative to first hike
- Time markers shown: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
- Numeric axis markers visible: –1.0, –0.5, 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0
- Summary statements from figure: "US financial conditions have continued to ease despite policy rate hikes ..." and "Tightening of financial conditions" / "Rate hikes"
- Series referenced in caption: Financial conditions index; Federal funds rate (percent)

### 5. US Real Effective Exchange during Federal Reserve Hiking Cycles
- Panel label: (Index)
- Index markers visible: 85, 90, 95, 100, 105, 110, 115
- Period labels shown: 1993–94, 1999–2000, 2004–06, 2015–present
- Summary statement from figure: "... while the US dollar has weakened ...... and measures of inflation compensation have remained relatively muted."

### 6. Five-Year, Five-Year-Ahead Inflation Swaps
- Panel label: (Percent)
- Time labels shown: 2014 15 16 17 18
- Numeric axis markers visible: –1.0, –0.8, –0.6, –0.4, –0.2, 0.0
- Summary statement from figure: "measures of inflation compensation have remained relatively muted."

*Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Panel 3 is based on IMF staff estimates of four-factor term structure models based on the Adrian, Crump and Moench (2013) model, using underlying Bloomberg fitted yield curve series from the early 1990s.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/ch1/pdf/figure1-4.pdf_