## Figure 2.12. The Association of the Riskiness of Credit Allocation with Downside Risks to GDP Growth Depends on the Size of Credit Expansion

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 2.12. The Association of the Riskiness of Credit Allocation with Downside Risks to GDP Growth Depends on the Size of Credit Expansion](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-2/pdf/figure2-12.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-2/pdf/figure2-12.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-2/pdf/figure2-12.pdf.json)

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### Panel data and reported values
- 1. 20th Percentile
  - Reported numerical values: –2.5, 0.5
- 2. 50th Percentile
  - Reported numerical values: –2.5, 0.5, –2.0, –1.5, –1.0, –0.5, 0.0
- Axis labels / categories (as presented):
  - Low credit growth
  - Mean credit growth
  - High credit growth

### Key findings (as presented in the figure and note)
- The panels show the range of impact of a one unit increase in the riskiness of credit allocation on the 20th and 50th percentiles of the distribution of future cumulative GDP growth from year t to year t + 3 across the four measures.
- The four measures referenced are: leverage-, interest coverage ratio–, debt overhang–, and expected default frequency–based measures.
- The impact is conditional on high, mean, and low credit growth.
- High (low) credit growth is defined as one standard deviation above (below) mean credit growth.
- Dark-colored bars indicate that the effects are statistically significant at the 10 percent level or higher for four out of four measures.
- Light-colored bars indicate that the effects are statistically significant at the 10 percent level or higher for two out of four measures.
- An empty bar indicates no statistically significant impact of any of the four measures.

### Methodological note (as presented)
- The figure reports impacts on the distribution of future cumulative GDP growth from year t to year t + 3.
- Further details on the methodology are in Annex 2.3.

*Source: IMF staff estimates.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-2/pdf/figure2-12.pdf_