## Figure 2.4. The Riskiness of Credit Allocation Is Cyclical at the Global Level

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 2.4. The Riskiness of Credit Allocation Is Cyclical at the Global Level](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-2/pdf/figure2-4.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-2/pdf/figure2-4.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-2/pdf/figure2-4.pdf.json)

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### Overview
- The figure presents four measures of the riskiness of credit allocation at the global median level:
  - 1. Leverage-Based Measure
  - 2. Interest Coverage Ratio–Based Measure
  - 3. Expected Default Frequency–Based Measure
  - 4. Debt Overhang–Based Measure
- Index values plotted for each measure show cyclical patterns across the sample period.
- Shaded areas indicate periods during which global real GDP growth was less than 2.5 percent.

### Data and Methodology Notes
- Sources: Worldscope; and IMF staff estimates.
- The panels show the simple two-year moving average of the median country in the unbalanced subsample.
- See Annex 2.1 for the list of economies included in the analysis.

### Time axis and index ticks (as shown)
- Year labels shown repeatedly: 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
- Index tick marks displayed: –0.8, –0.6, –0.4, –0.2, 0.0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8

### Key presentation points (visual)
- Each panel uses the same index scale with ticks at the values listed above.
- The four panels are aligned to permit comparison of cyclical behavior across different risk measures.
- Shaded recessionary/low-growth periods (global real GDP growth < 2.5 percent) are overlaid on the panels.

*Source: Figure 2.4 from the provided PDF (Worldscope; and IMF staff estimates).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-2/pdf/figure2-4.pdf_