## Figure 3.2.1. Housing Return Predictability

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 3.2.1. Housing Return Predictability](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-3/csv/boxfigure3-2-1.csv)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-3/csv/boxfigure3-2-1.csv.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-3/csv/boxfigure3-2-1.csv.json)

---

### Dataset description
- Worksheet name: csv
- Row count: 6
- Column count: 11
- Content: Median R2 from forecasting equation using current price-to-rent ratio to predict future capital gains in housing assets for forecasting horizons from 1 year to 10 years.

### Methodology note (as provided)
- "The forecasting equation uses the current price-to-rent ratio to predict future capital gains in housing assets. The y?axis in this figure is the R2 from the forecasting equation"
- " that is"
- " the proportion of variance in the future housing return explained by the current price-to-rent ratio. The forecasting horizon ranges from 1 year to 10 years. The median R2 among countries in the sample is plotted in this figure."

### Key statistics — Median R2 by forecasting horizon (Year → Median R2)
- Year 1: 0.006
- Year 2: 0.019
- Year 3: 0.040
- Year 4: 0.059
- Year 5: 0.083
- Year 6: 0.126
- Year 7: 0.162
- Year 8: 0.177
- Year 9: 0.187
- Year 10: 0.181

*Source: IMF staff estimates.*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-3/csv/boxfigure3-2-1.csv_