## Figure 3.16. House Price Synchronization Predicts a Downside Risk to Economic Growth at Short Horizons (Quantile regression coefficients, percentage points of GDP)

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 3.16. House Price Synchronization Predicts a Downside Risk to Economic Growth at Short Horizons (Quantile regression coefficients, percentage points of GDP)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-3/csv/figure3-16.csv)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-3/csv/figure3-16.csv.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-3/csv/figure3-16.csv.json)

---

### Dataset description
- Worksheet name: csv
- Row count: 15
- Column count: 1
- Caption/Title exactly as in file: "Figure 3.16. House Price Synchronization Predicts a Downside Risk to Economic Growth at Short Horizons (Quantile regression coefficients, percentage points of GDP)"
- Source note in file: "Source: IMF staff estimates."
- Additional note in file: "Note: Solid bars denote statistically significant quantile regression coefficients at a 10 percent confidence interval."

### One Quarter Ahead (reported variables)
- Columns reported:
  - Quantile
  - Direct effect
  - Interaction with leverage
- Observations (sample rows provided):
  - Quantile 0.10
    - Direct effect: -0.377912582
    - Interaction with leverage: -0.613776748
  - Quantile 0.25
    - Direct effect: -0.317693239
    - Interaction with leverage: -0.315759151

### Four Quarters Ahead (reported variables)
- Columns reported:
  - Quantile
  - Direct effect
  - Interaction with leverage
- Observations (sample rows provided):
  - Quantile 0.10
    - Direct effect: -0.294777442
    - Interaction with leverage: -0.399045621
  - Quantile 0.25
    - Direct effect: -0.241795622
    - Interaction with leverage: -0.283115552

### Notes and presentation details
- Empty or placeholder rows are present in the worksheet (rows with commas or empty strings).
- The dataset distinguishes short-horizon estimates: "One Quarter Ahead" and "Four Quarters Ahead".
- The file indicates statistical significance visually: "Solid bars denote statistically significant quantile regression coefficients at a 10 percent confidence interval."

*Source: IMF staff estimates.*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-3/csv/figure3-16.csv_