## Figure 3.16. House Price Synchronization Predicts a Downside Risk to Economic Growth at Short Horizons

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 3.16. House Price Synchronization Predicts a Downside Risk to Economic Growth at Short Horizons](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-3/pdf/figure3-16.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-3/pdf/figure3-16.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-3/pdf/figure3-16.pdf.json)

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### Description
- Quantile regression coefficients reported in percentage points of GDP.
- Two horizons shown:
  - One Quarter Ahead
  - Four Quarters Ahead
- Two coefficient types reported:
  - Direct effect
  - Interaction with leverage
- Quantiles displayed: 0.10, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 0.90.

### Findings (reported values)
- One Quarter Ahead:
  - Direct effect: –0.7
  - Interaction with leverage: 0.0
- Four Quarters Ahead:
  - Direct effect: –0.7
  - Interaction with leverage: 0.0

### Statistical significance and visualization notes
- Solid bars denote statistically significant quantile regression coefficients at a 10 percent confidence interval.
- Coefficients are plotted across quantiles 0.10, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 0.90 with vertical axis range showing values from –0.6 to 0.1 (in percentage points of GDP).

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/april/chapter-3/pdf/figure3-16.pdf_