## Figure 1.2.1. Trade Tensions Scenario Analysis Using the Growth-at-Risk Approach

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1.2.1. Trade Tensions Scenario Analysis Using the Growth-at-Risk Approach](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/csv/box-figure-1-2-1.csv)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/csv/box-figure-1-2-1.csv.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/csv/box-figure-1-2-1.csv.json)

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### Dataset structure
- Worksheet name: csv
- Row count: 759
- Column count: 14
- Header row (column 1): "Figure 1.2.1. Trade Tensions Scenario Analysis Using the Growth-at-Risk Approach"

### Key table headings (as presented in the CSV)
- "Figure 1. Near-Term Impact of Trade Scenarios"
  - Subheading: "(Probability density)"
- "Figure 2. Medium-Term Impact of Trade"
  - Subheading: "(Probability density)"
- "3. Severely Adverse Outcomes (5th percentile) under Baseline and Trade Tensions Scenarios: Relative to Historical Norms"
  - Subcolumns: "Near term", "Medium term"

### Sample numeric entries (preserved exactly as in the dataset)
- Row with leftmost value "-1":
  - Baseline: "0.00108"
  - Trade scenario: "0.0066"
  - Medium-term Baseline (separate block): "0.01326"
  - Medium-term Trade scenario with persistent financial conditions shock: "0.0174"
  - "Near term" (Baseline): "2.8"
  - "Medium term" (Baseline): "-0.24"
- Row with leftmost value "-0.99":
  - Baseline: "0.00108"
  - Trade scenario: "0.00664"
  - Medium-term Baseline: "0.01334"
  - Medium-term Trade scenario with persistent financial conditions shock: "0.01751"
  - "Near term" (Trade scenario with persistent financial conditions shock): "1.35"
  - "Medium term" (Trade scenario with persistent financial conditions shock): "-0.93"
- Row with leftmost value "-0.98":
  - Baseline: "0.00109"
  - Trade scenario: "0.00668"
  - Medium-term Baseline: "0.01341"
  - Medium-term Trade scenario with persistent financial conditions shock: "0.01761"

### Observations from the sample rows
- Probability-density style values for near-term Baseline scenarios are on the order of "0.00108"–"0.00109".
- Probability-density style values for near-term Trade scenarios are on the order of "0.0066"–"0.00668".
- Medium-term Baseline probability-density values in the sample are "0.01326", "0.01334", and "0.01341".
- Medium-term Trade scenario with persistent financial conditions shock values in the sample are "0.0174", "0.01751", and "0.01761".
- Severely adverse outcomes (5th percentile) are reported as:
  - Near term, Baseline: "2.8"
  - Near term, Trade scenario with persistent financial conditions shock: "1.35"
  - Medium term, Baseline: "-0.24"
  - Medium term, Trade scenario with persistent financial conditions shock: "-0.93"

*Canonical source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/csv/box-figure-1-2-1.csv*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/csv/box-figure-1-2-1.csv_