## Figure 1.15. Emerging Market Vulnerabilities to Portfolio Flow Reversals

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1.15. Emerging Market Vulnerabilities to Portfolio Flow Reversals](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/csv/figure1-15.csv)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/csv/figure1-15.csv.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/csv/figure1-15.csv.json)

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### 2. Estimated Cumulative Impact of External Factors on Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets
- Units: (Billions of U.S. dollars)
- Components and example observations:
  - Federal Reserve policy rate expectations:
    - 2017:Q4: -3.11
    - 2018:Q1: -9.86
    - 2018:Q2: -16.26
  - Federal Reserve balance sheet:
    - 2017:Q4: -1.82
    - 2018:Q1: -5.47
    - 2018:Q2: -10.94
  - Risk aversion:
    - 2017:Q4: 5.09
    - 2018:Q1: 7.29
    - 2018:Q2: -2.15

### 3. Model Estimates for Debt Portfolio Flows under a Severely Adverse Scenario
- Metric: (Fifth percentile of probability distribution, percent of EM GDP)
- Reference periods and example baseline/benchmark entries:
  - Before taper tantrum (2013:Q1)
  - Year ago (2017:Q2)
  - Latest (2018:Q2)
- Example model inputs for near-term and medium-term:
  - Near term:
    - Before taper tantrum (2013:Q1): -0.2621
    - Year ago (2017:Q2): 0.0202
    - Latest (2018:Q2): -0.0982
  - Medium term:
    - Before taper tantrum (2013:Q1): -0.3304
    - Year ago (2017:Q2): -0.5042
    - Latest (2018:Q2): -0.5814

### 4. Medium-Term Debt Portfolio Flows Forecast Densities
- Metric: (Debt portfolio inflows, percent of EM GDP)
- Historical reference points shown in dataset:
  - 2011:Q4
  - 2018:Q2
- Example baseline/scenario markers (as presented):
  - 2011:Q4 baseline: -0.9
  - 2018:Q2 baseline: -0.898
  - 2011:Q4 scenario: 0.0273
  - 2018:Q2 scenario: 0.0273

### 5. Risk-Aversion Scenario: Near-Term Debt Portfolio Flows Forecast Densities
- Example labels and values:
  - Baseline: -1.5
  - Scenario: 0
  - Year markers associated in dataset:
    - 2011:Q4: -0.9 (baseline), 0.0273 (scenario)
    - 2018:Q2: -0.898 (baseline), 0.0273 (scenario)
  - Additional near-term example entries:
    - Baseline: 0
    - Scenario: 0

### 6. Risk-Aversion Scenario: Medium-Term Debt Portfolio Flows Forecast Densities
- Example labels and values (as presented):
  - Baseline: -1.5
  - Scenario: 0
  - Medium-term numeric entries mirror near-term scenario markers:
    - Baseline: -0.9
    - Scenario: 0.0273

*Dataset: figure1-15 (csv worksheet) — IMF Global Financial Stability Report dataset overview*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/csv/figure1-15.csv_