## boxfigure1-2-1

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [boxfigure1-2-1](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/pdf/boxfigure1-2-1.pdf)

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### Figure title and purpose
- Figure 1.2.1. Trade Tensions Scenario Analysis Using the Growth-at-Risk Approach
- Purpose: Illustrates near-term and medium-term probability density impacts of trade tensions on global growth and compares severely adverse outcomes (5th percentile) under Baseline and Trade Tensions scenarios relative to historical norms.

### 1. Near-Term Impact of Trade Tensions (Probability density)
- Displayed probability density values (as shown): 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
- Global growth rate (percent) axis values shown: –10.5002.54.5
- Scenario labels present: Baseline; Trade scenario; Trade scenario with persistent financial conditions shock
- Quintiles indicated from Worst to Best

### 2. Medium-Term Impact of Trade Tensions (Probability density)
- Displayed probability density values (as shown): 0.0 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
- Global growth rate (percent) axis values shown: 6.5–10.52.54.56.5
- Near term / Medium term pairing indicated with a line connecting corresponding forecasts
- Numerical marker for comparison between near and medium term: –2 3 –1 0 1 2

### 3. Severely Adverse Outcomes (5th percentile) under Baseline and Trade Tensions Scenarios: Relative to Historical Norms
- Key numeric comparison highlighted: 1.45 percentage points
- 5th percentile indicated for both near term and medium term (labels: 5th percentile 5th percentile)

### Notes and methodology
- Source: IMF staff estimates.
- Note: The bands are based on the interquartile range of GaR predictions (near and medium term), based on historical data since 1990:Q1.
- Baseline distributions correspond to the latest GaR assessment, as of 2018:Q3, presented in Figure 1.3 of the main text.
- The lines indicate the pairs of near- and medium-term forecasts and do not assert a linear relationship between the two periods.
- GaR = growth-at-risk.

*Source: IMF staff estimates.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/pdf/boxfigure1-2-1.pdf_