## figure1-15-092718

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [figure1-15-092718](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/pdf/figure1-15-092718.pdf)

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- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/pdf/figure1-15-092718.pdf.md)
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### Overview
- Title: Emerging Market Vulnerabilities to Portfolio Flow Reversals (Figure 1.15)
- Scope: Sample comprises all emerging market and developing countries for which quarterly portfolio debt flows data are available (about 60 countries). China is excluded.
- Time horizons: “Near-term” refers to the period from the current quarter to two quarters into the future; “medium-term” refers to the period five to eight quarters ahead.
- Metrics shown across panels: portfolio flows in percent of EM GDP; billions of U.S. dollars (three-month rolling sum); probability densities for debt portfolio inflows; model fifth percentile (severely adverse scenario) estimates.

### Key findings on portfolio flows
- Recent trend:
  - "Portfolio flows to emerging market economies have been under pressure in recent months."
  - "Portfolio flows are expected to remain subdued given the external backdrop."
- Investor composition (panel 1):
  - Series labeled: Total flows, Institutional flows, Retail flows.
  - Time series span 2013–2018 (labeled 20131415161718).
- Historical reference points (panel 1 labels):
  - Before taper tantrum (2013:Q1)
  - Year ago (2017:Q2)
  - Latest (2018:Q2)

### Model estimates and scenarios
- Model output headline: "Downside risks to debt portfolio flows in the medium term have increased ... suggesting that there would be large outflows under a severely adverse outcome."
- Model metric: "Third: Model Estimates for Debt Portfolio Flows under a Severely Adverse Scenario (Fifth percentile of probability distribution, percent of EM GDP)."
- Specific percentile framing:
  - "5th percentile"
  - Text: "The fifth percentile estimates reported in the text and panel 3 are obtained from the empirical densities and may be somewhat different from the fitted densities shown in panels 4 to 6."
- Density and forecast panels:
  - Panel 4: Medium-Term Debt Portfolio Flows Forecast Densities (Debt portfolio inflows, percent of EM GDP)
  - Panel 5: Risk-Aversion Scenario: Near-Term Debt Portfolio Flows Forecast Densities
  - Panel 6: Risk-Aversion Scenario: Medium-Term Debt Portfolio Flows Forecast Densities

### Risk-aversion scenario effects
- Qualitative result:
  - "Under a scenario of a sharp rise in risk aversion, near-term risks to capital flows increase significantly ... while medium-term risks to capital flows ease."
- Probability density axes shown in panels 4–6 with scales preserving original labels:
  - Probability density axes range from 0.0 to 1.2 in panel 4 (labels shown: 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2)
  - Probability density axes range from 0.0 to 1.0 in panels 5 and 6 (labels shown: 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0)
- Portfolio flows axis labels (as shown):
  - Ranges and ticks: –1.5–1.0–0.50.00.51.01.52.0 and –0.9–0.6–0.300.30.60.91.21.51.8 and 0.60.91.21.51.82.1 (these sequences appear as original axis tick label groupings)
- Example numeric markers shown in figure:
  - Values listed: –120, –90, –60, –30, 0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150 (panel scale)
  - Specific small-number ticks shown: –0.6, –0.5, –0.4, –0.3, –0.2, –0.1, 0.0, 0.1
  - A string of values appearing in figure text: –0.9–0.6–0.300.3 and 0.60.91.21.51.82.1 and –1.5–1.0–0.50.00.51.01.52.0–0.9–0.6–0.300.30.60.91.21.51.8 and 2.1

### External factor contributions to flows
- Panel 2: "Estimated Cumulative Impact of External Factors on Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets (Billions of U.S. dollars)"
  - Event labels (as presented): Renminbi devaluation, U.S. election, EM sell-off, Taper tantrum
  - Time coverage labeled: 2017:Q4 18:Q2 18:Q4 19:Q2 19:Q4  Estimates through 2018:Q3
  - Vertical scale example (panel 2): –140, –120, –100, –80, –60, –40, –20, 0, 20

### Notes on methodology and sample
- Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations.
- Methodological note: "For more details on the methodology, see Online Annex 1.1."
- Abbreviation: EM = emerging market.

*Source: figure1-15-092718 (figure from IMF staff calculations)*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/pdf/figure1-15-092718.pdf_