## Figure 1.4. The Growth-at-Risk Estimates

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**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1.4. The Growth-at-Risk Estimates](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/pdf/figure1-4.pdf)

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### Global Financial Conditions Index
- Index units: Standard deviations.
- Time labels shown: 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018.
- Axis values shown: –1.5, –1.0, –0.5, 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5.
- Direction: An upward movement reflects tightening of financial conditions.
- Observation from the figure: Global financial conditions have tightened somewhat since 2018:Q1.
- Note: In addition to the price-of-risk components (shown in Figure 1.2), the global financial conditions index used to estimate GaR includes two additional variables—credit growth and the ratio of credit to GDP.

### Growth Forecast Densities
- Panel label: (Probability density, as of 2018:Q3).
- Time labels shown: 2012–2018.
- Horizontal axis for growth: Global growth rate (percent).
- Vertical axis: Probability density scale shown from 0 to 1.0 (with intermediate ticks at 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8).
- Observation: Near-term forecast densities (as of 2018:Q3) and medium-term forecast densities are plotted; shading indicates percentile ranks for GaR thresholds.

### Near- and Medium-Term Risks
- Panel label: (Fifth percentiles [GaR] of growth forecast distributions as of 2018:Q1 and 2018:Q3).
- Markers/lines indicate pairs of near- and medium-term forecasts; lines do not assert a linear relationship between the two periods.
- Shaded regions correspond to ±1 standard error bands around 2018:Q1 predictions.
- Quintile notation present: Worst — Best (quintiles indicated).
- Observation: Near-term downside risks have increased modestly, while medium-term risks remain elevated compared with six months ago.

### Near-Term GaR Forecasts
- Panel label: (Percentile rank).
- Relevant periods referenced explicitly: 2018:Q1 and 2018:Q3.
- Threshold displayed: 5th percentile (GaR).
- Statement from figure: The latest near-term GaR forecast is still near historical highs.
- Percentile axis presented from 0 to 100 with intermediate ticks at 20, 40, 60, 80.

### Medium-Term GaR Forecasts
- Panel label: (Percentile rank).
- Threshold displayed: 5th percentile (GaR).
- Statement from figure: The medium-term GaR forecast is close to historic lows.
- Percentile axis presented from 0 to 100 with intermediate ticks at 20, 40, 60, 80.

### Key methodological and interpretive notes
- GaR = growth-at-risk.
- The global financial conditions index used to estimate GaR includes: price-of-risk components (shown in Figure 1.2), credit growth, and the ratio of credit to GDP.
- In panel 3, the lines indicate the pairs of near- and medium-term forecasts and do not assert a linear relationship between the two periods.
- Shaded regions correspond to ±1 standard error bands around 2018:Q1 predictions.
- In panels 4 and 5, the color shading depicts the percentile rank for the 5th percentile threshold (GaR) of near-term and medium-term forecast growth densities.
- Reference for methodology: See the April 2018 GFSR for details.

*Source: IMF staff estimates.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch1/pdf/figure1-4.pdf_