## Figure 2.8. Perceptions of Likelihood of Bailout of Systemic Institutions

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 2.8. Perceptions of Likelihood of Bailout of Systemic Institutions](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch2/pdf/figure2-8.pdf)

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### 1. Changes in Perception of Government Support from 2007 to 2017 (Numerical ratings scales)
- Finding: Bank ratings suggest that it is now less likely for systemic institutions to be bailed out.
- Support rating definition: reflects a view on the likelihood that a bank will receive support from either a parent bank or the government, ranging from a likelihood of 1 (low) to 7 (high).
- Stand-alone banks: refer to banks without a parent.
- Statistical significance: Solid bars indicate that the differences are statistically significant at a 10 percent level.
- Reported group comparisons (difference in means between 2007 and 2017):
  - All banks
  - Non-BCBS countries
  - BCBS countries
  - Non-crisis countries
  - Crisis countries
  - Non–G-SIBs
  - G-SIBs

### 2. Implicit G-SIB (Too-Important-to-Fail) Subsidy (Basis points)
- Finding: There is a decline in market-based measures of the implicit subsidy that arises from possible bailout.
- Implicit subsidy calculation: difference between the “fair value” credit default swap (CDS) spread obtained from equity prices and the CDS spread on a bank’s bonds. A higher difference implies a higher implicit too-important-to-fail subsidy.
- Numeric markers shown in the figure:
  - –1.6
  - 0.0
  - –1.4
  - –1.2
  - –1.0
  - –0.8
  - –0.6
  - –0.4
  - –0.2
  - –50
  - 200
  - 0
  - 50
  - 100
  - 150
- Time series labels shown in the figure:
  - Oct. 2009
  - Apr. 10
  - Oct. 10
  - Apr. 11
  - Oct. 11
  - Apr. 12
  - Oct. 12
  - Apr. 13
  - Oct. 13
  - Apr. 14
  - Oct. 14
  - Apr. 15
  - Oct. 15
  - Apr. 16
  - Oct. 16
  - Apr. 17
  - Oct. 17
  - Apr. 18

Sources: Fitch Ratings; Moody’s CreditEdge; and IMF staff calculations.
Note: BCBS = Basel Committee on Banking Supervision; G-SIBs = global systemically important banks.

*Figure 2.8 from the source PDF.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2018/oct/ch2/pdf/figure2-8.pdf_