## Figure 1.3. Growth-at-Risk Estimates

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1.3. Growth-at-Risk Estimates](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch1data/ch1csv/figure1-3.csv)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch1data/ch1csv/figure1-3.csv.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch1data/ch1csv/figure1-3.csv.json)

---

### 1. Global Financial Conditions Index (Standard deviations)
- Column header: "FCI"
- Sample date-value pairs (as provided):
  - "3/1/2012": "0.1083"
  - "6/1/2012": "0.3606"
  - "9/1/2012": "-0.3913"
- Additional numeric entry in row 8, column labeled with "-1.00": "-1.00"
- Additional numeric entries in rows 8–10 under the same block: "-0.99", "-0.98"

### 2. Global Growth Forecast Densities (Probability density)
- Quarter columns present: "2018:Q3", "2018:Q4", "2019:Q1"
- Sample probability density values by quarter (rows 8–10):
  - For "2019:Q1": "0.0010773", "0.0042129", "0.0001060"
  - For "2018:Q4": "0.0010841", "0.0042445", "0.0001076"
  - For "2018:Q3": "0.0010910", "0.0042765", "0.0001092"

### 3. Near- and Medium-Term Risks (Fifth percentiles [GaR] of forecast distributions)
- Label for fifth percentiles: "Fifth percentiles [GaR] of forecast distributions"
- Sample association of quarters and GaR labels:
  - Row 8: quarter "2019:Q1" appears in the block for fifth percentiles.
  - Row 9: quarter "2018:Q4" appears in the block for fifth percentiles.
  - Row 10: quarter "2018:Q3" appears in the block for fifth percentiles.

### 4. Near-Term GaR Forecasts (Percentile rank)
- Column header: "Near term" under percentiles
- Sample numeric near-term GaR forecast values (rows 8–10, medium-term and near-term columns):
  - Row 8 near-term: "2.26"
  - Row 9 near-term: "1.55"
  - Row 10 near-term: "2.80"
- Associated small values in the same rows (following near-term values):
  - Row 8: "-0.16"
  - Row 9: "0.01"
  - Row 10: "-0.25"

### 5. Medium-Term GaR Forecasts (Percentile rank)
- Column header: "Medium term" under percentiles
- Sample medium-term percentile ranks and date markers:
  - Row 8 medium-term percentile: "-0.16" (paired with "2.26" in row 8 near-term block)
  - Row 9 medium-term percentile: "0.01" (paired with "1.55")
  - Row 10 medium-term percentile: "-0.25" (paired with "2.80")
- Sample percentile-rank date markers and values (rows 8–10, separate date/value pairs):
  - Row 8: date "3/1/2012" with percentile-rank value "41.8" (Near term block)
  - Row 8: date "3/1/2012" with percentile-rank value "66.3" (Medium term block)
  - Row 9: date "6/1/2012" with percentile-rank value "23.6" (Near term block)
  - Row 9: date "6/1/2012" with percentile-rank value "54.5" (Medium term block)
  - Row 10: date "9/1/2012" with percentile-rank value "68.1" (Near term block)
  - Row 10: date "9/1/2012" with percentile-rank value "20.0" (Medium term block)

*Dataset: figure1-3 (csv worksheet) — sample rows and column headers as provided.*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch1data/ch1csv/figure1-3.csv_