## Figure 1.1. Global Market Developments

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1.1. Global Market Developments](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch1data/charts/figure1-1.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch1data/charts/figure1-1.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch1data/charts/figure1-1.pdf.json)

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### 1. Returns by Asset Class (Percent)
- Panel shows asset class returns for "2018" and "2019 year to date".
- Axis tick marks shown: –25, –20, –15, –10, –5, 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25.
- Asset categories listed (as presented):
  - Oil (Brent)
  - China equities
  - Commodities
  - S&P 500
  - Eurostoxx 50
  - EM equities
  - Topix
  - US corp HY
  - EM sov $
  - Euro corp HY
  - EM corp $
  - US corp IG
  - EM govts local
  - Euro corp IG
  - Gold
  - JGBs
  - US T-bills

### 2. Global Equity Prices and Forward EPS Forecasts (Index and annual percent changes)
- Time series spans Oct. 2018, Nov. 18, Dec. 18, Jan. 19, Feb. 19, Mar. 19.
- Index axis tick marks shown: 380, 400, 420, 440, 460, 480, 500, 520, 540, 560.
- Additional axis ticks shown: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11.
- Series presented in the panel:
  - MSCI World index
  - Forward global EPS growth (right scale)
  - Standard deviation of global EPS forecasts (right scale)
- Observations noted in the source text:
  - "After posting negative returns in 2018, asset prices rebounded this year ..."
  - "... despite continued downward revisions in corporate earnings forecasts."
  - "This has resulted in reduced market volatility and uncertainty around earnings forecasts ..."

### 3. Expected Federal Funds Rate versus FOMC Dots (End of period, percent)
- Dates/markers included in the panel:
  - Previous GFSR (September 30, 2018)
  - January 2019 FOMC (January 30, 2019)
  - Post March 2019 FOMC (March 26, 2019)
- Series and labels in the panel:
  - FOMC median dots (Mar. 2019)
  - FOMC median dots (Sep. 2018)
  - Federal funds rate futures (Mar. 2019)
  - Federal funds rate futures (Sep. 2018)
- Axis tick marks shown: 1.75, 2.00, 2.25, 2.50, 2.75, 3.00, 3.25, 3.50.
- Observations noted in the source text:
  - "After the dovish shift in US monetary policy, markets do not expect any further rate hikes ..."
  - "... and yields are expected to stay low for longer."
- Note in the figure: "In panel 3, the downward slope of the federal funds rate futures may in part reflect a negative term premium."

### 4. US Treasury Yield Curve (Percent)
- Maturities and scenarios shown in the panel:
  - 2019
  - 2020
  - Longer run
- Horizontal axis labeled "Maturity (years)" with ticks shown: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11.
- Vertical axis tick marks shown: 1.75, 2.00, 2.25, 2.50, 2.75, 3.00, 3.25, 3.50.
- Time series timeline: Oct. 2018, Nov. 18, Dec. 18, Jan. 19, Feb. 19, Mar. 19.

### 5. US VIX and Dispersion of Global EPS Forecasts (Percent and index)
- Time series spans Oct. 2018, Nov. 18, Dec. 18, Jan. 19, Feb. 19, Mar. 19.
- Axis tick marks shown for VIX/dispersion: 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, 75.
- Annotation repeated in panel: "Powell AEA speech Jan. 4, 2019."
- Observation: "This has resulted in reduced market volatility and uncertainty around earnings forecasts ..."

### 6. US MOVE and Term Premium (Percent and basis points)
- Time series spans Oct. 2018, Nov. 18, Dec. 18, Jan. 19, Feb. 19, Mar. 19.
- MOVE/term-premium axis tick marks shown: –0.75, –0.65, –0.55, –0.45, –0.35, –0.25, –0.15.
- Annotation repeated in panel: "Powell AEA speech Jan. 4, 2019."
- Observation in the source text: "... as well as reduced interest rate volatility and a compressed term premium."

### Key narrative points in the figure
- "After posting negative returns in 2018, asset prices rebounded this year ..."
- "… despite continued downward revisions in corporate earnings forecasts."
- "This has resulted in reduced market volatility and uncertainty around earnings forecasts ..."
- "… as well as reduced interest rate volatility and a compressed term premium."
- "After the dovish shift in US monetary policy, markets do not expect any further rate hikes ..."
- "… and yields are expected to stay low for longer."

*Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; ICE Data Indices, LLC; Moody’s; MSCI; Standard & Poor’s Leveraged Commentary and Data; Thomson Reuters Datastream; Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S; and IMF staff calculations.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch1data/charts/figure1-1.pdf_