## Figure 1.3. Growth-at-Risk Estimates

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 1.3. Growth-at-Risk Estimates](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch1data/charts/figure1-3.pdf)

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### Key observations and chart panels
- Title summary: Growth-at-Risk (GaR) estimates indicate that global financial conditions have tightened since the last GFSR, with near-term downside risks increased on net and medium-term risks remaining elevated.
- Final observation corresponds to 2019:Q1.
- Panels included:
  - 1. Global Financial Conditions Index (Standard deviations)
  - 2. Global Growth Forecast Densities (Probability density)
  - 3. Near- and Medium-Term Risks (Fifth percentiles [GaR] of forecast distributions)
  - 4. Near-Term GaR Forecasts (Percentile rank)
  - 5. Medium-Term GaR Forecasts (Percentile rank)

### Panel-specific details and numeric values
- Time labels appearing in the figure:
  - 2018:Q3
  - 2018:Q4
  - 2019:Q1
  - Multi-year axis points: 2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 (presented as 201213141516171819)
- Global Financial Conditions Index axis (Standard deviations) values shown:
  - –1.5
  - –1.0
  - –0.5
  - 0.0
  - 0.5
  - 1.0
- Global growth rate (percent) axis values shown:
  - –1.4
  - –0.9
  - –0.4
  - 0.1
  - 0.6
  - 1.1
  - 1.6
  - 2.1
  - 2.6
  - 3.1
- Percentile/rank axes presented as sequences:
  - 0
  - 100
  - 40
  - 20
  - 60
  - 80
- Quintile labeling for panel shading: Worst Best
- Additional numeric ticks or series markers (panel 4/5 probability or density scale):
  - 0
  - 0.1
  - 0.2
  - 0.3
  - 0.4
  - 0.5
  - 0.6
  - 0.7
  - 0.8
- Small numeric sequence shown near quintile legend: 0.8 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.8 5.8 (presented as 0.81.82.83.84.85.8)

### Interpretation and annotations from the figure
- Directionality:
  - In panel 1, upward movement reflects tightening of financial conditions.
- Forecast centering:
  - In panel 2, forecast density estimates are centered around the respective World Economic Outlook forecasts.
- Near- vs medium-term relationship:
  - In panel 3, the lines indicate the pairs of near- and medium-term forecasts, and do not assert a linear relationship between the two periods.
- Uncertainty depiction:
  - The shaded regions correspond to ±1 standard error bands around 2018:Q3 predictions.
- Percentile shading:
  - In panels 4 and 5, the color shading depicts the percentile rank for the 5th percentile threshold (GaR) of near-term and medium-term growth forecast densities.
- Reference for methods: See the April 2018 Global Financial Stability Report for details.
- Acronyms preserved:
  - GaR = growth-at-risk
  - GFSR = Global Financial Stability Report

*Source: IMF staff calculations.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch1data/charts/figure1-3.pdf_