## boxfigure2-2-1

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [boxfigure2-2-1](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/boxfigure2-2-1.pdf)

## Other formats

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### Panels and measures shown
- Panel 1: Downside Risks to House Prices across US Cities (Five percent HaR, four quarters ahead). Displays the 10th percentile and 90th percentile of the cross-sectional city distribution in each period.
- Panel 2: Downside Risks to House Prices across Canadian Cities (Five percent HaR, four quarters ahead). Displays the 10th percentile and 90th percentile of the cross-sectional city distribution in each period.
- Panel 3: House Prices at Risk and Valuations across US Cities. One-year-ahead estimates of 5 percent HaR refer to 2019:Q1 and 2009:Q1. City-level house-price-to-income ratios refer to 2008 and 2018.
- Panel 4: House Prices at Risk and Valuations across Canadian Cities. One-year-ahead estimates of 5 percent HaR refer to 2019:Q1 and 2009:Q1. City-level house-price-to-income ratios refer to 2008 and 2018.
- Panel 5: Capital Flows as Drivers of HaR in the United States (Selected American cities; coefficients: 10th percentile; HaR four quarters ahead).
- Panel 6: Capital Flows as Drivers of HaR in Canada (Selected Canadian cities; coefficients: 10th percentile; HaR four quarters ahead).

### Key findings and patterns
- Housing downside risks across US cities are more volatile, with a large drop around the GFC.
- On average, cycles of downside risks across Canadian cities are relatively stable.
- Valuations came down for most US cities in 2018 compared with 2008, partially mitigating tail risks.
- Amid stretched valuations, several Canadian cities were particularly vulnerable to downside risks in 2018.
- FDI inflows have a positive role in mitigating risk, whereas other capital inflows are a negative driver.
- One-year-ahead estimates of 5 percent HaR are reported for 2019:Q1 and 2009:Q1.
- City-level house-price-to-income ratios are reported for 2008 and 2018.
- Coefficients shown in Panels 5 and 6 correspond to the 10th percentile for HaR four quarters ahead; dark green and red bars indicate coefficients significant at the 10 percent level.

### Notation and acronyms used
- HaR = house prices at risk
- FDI = foreign direct investment
- GFC = global financial crisis
- "Other capital flows" refers to capital flows other than foreign direct investment or portfolio capital flows.

*Source: IMF staff calculations.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/boxfigure2-2-1.pdf_