## Figure 2.11. House Prices at Risk and Financial Stability

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**Canonical URL:** [Figure 2.11. House Prices at Risk and Financial Stability](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-11.pdf)

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### Key relationships and overall message
- The house-prices-at-risk estimate used in this chapter significantly helps predict future growth at risk and the largest downside risks to house prices substantially raise the probability of a financial crisis.
- Panels 1 and 2 depict a positive and significant association between GaR and HaR, at the 5th quantile and at the median over different projection horizons.
- Panels 3 and 4 show marginal probabilities of real house price declines (HaR) at given values on the occurrence of a financial (banking) crisis from a model with fixed effects, output growth, the financial conditions index, credit-to-GDP gap, and HaR.

### Regression coefficients of HaR in GaR model (1 to 16 quarters ahead)
- 1 to 16 quarters ahead regression specification reported.
- Coefficients depicted for:
  - 5th percentile
  - Median
- Visual markers: black markers indicate insignificant coefficients; colored circles denote coefficients significant at the 10 percent level or higher.
- Horizontal indexing/labels shown in the figure: 1. Regression Coefficients of HaR in GaR Model (1 to 16 quarters ahead)
  - Sequence text present in figure: 14 3 256789  1014151112131614
  - Repeated sequence text present in figure: 3 256789  10141511121316

### Marginal probability of real house price risks on a financial crisis
- Panels labeled:
  - 3. Marginal Probability of Real House Price Risks on a Financial Crisis (Estimated effect and confidence bounds for given house price at risk, two-year-ahead annualized growth rate)
  - 4. Marginal Probability of Real House Price Risks on a Financial Crisis (Estimated effect and confidence bounds for given house price at risk, two-year-ahead annualized growth rate)
- Vertical lines delineate the 95 percent confidence bounds around the point estimates.
- Probability axis ticks and values shown in the figure: 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6
- Effect/probability values illustrated include: 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and 0.0, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.4 (as depicted in panels)
- House-price-at-risk axis labels shown in the figure: –12–10–8–6–4–202–12–10–8–6–4–202 (as presented in the figure)

### Notes, definitions, and statistical significance
- GaR = growth at risk; HaR = house prices at risk.
- Significance conventions in the figure:
  - Black markers: insignificant coefficients.
  - Colored circles: coefficients significant at the 10 percent level or higher.
- Confidence interval depiction: 95 percent confidence bounds shown with vertical lines.

*Source: IMF staff calculations.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-11.pdf_