## figure2-5

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [figure2-5](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-5.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-5.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-5.pdf.json)

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### Key finding
- "Variables related to financial conditions, real GDP growth, household leverage, and overvaluation are informative about sharp declines in real house prices."

### Figure layout and panels
- Figure title: "Figure 2.5. House Prices and Fundamentals: Quantile Regression Results"
- Four main figure groups:
  - 1. Advanced Economies: Impact of Four Factors on Real House Price Growth (One to 16 quarters ahead, 5th quantile coefficients)
  - 2. Emerging Market Economies: Impact of Four Factors on Real House Price Growth (One to 16 quarters ahead, 5th quantile coefficients)
  - 3. Advanced Economies: Impact of Four Factors on Future Real House Prices (One and three years ahead; 5th quantile and median coefficients)
  - 4. Emerging Market Economies: Impact of Four Factors on Future Real House Prices (One and three years ahead; 5th quantile and median coefficients)

### Variables and statistical details
- Variables analyzed:
  - Lagged house prices
  - Financial conditions (FCI = financial conditions index)
  - House price misalignment
  - Real GDP growth
  - Credit boom dummy (note: credit boom dummy is not standardized)
- Estimation approach:
  - Panel quantile regressions estimated at the 5th and 50th (median) quantiles.
  - Panels 1 and 2 show panel quantile coefficients for four standardized variables in regression with average real house price growth over different horizons, estimated at the 5th percentile.
  - Panels 3 and 4 (A–D) show coefficients from panel quantile regressions estimated at the 5th and 50th quantiles for one- and three-year real house price growth and the listed covariates.
- Standardization and interpretation:
  - All variables (except the credit boom dummy) are standardized so that magnitudes of coefficients indicate relative importance of variables.
- Significance notation:
  - Colored circles/bars indicate coefficients statistically significant at the 10 percent level or higher.
  - Black markers (panels 1 and 2) indicate insignificant coefficients.
  - Outlined bars indicate insignificant coefficients.

### Axes and coefficient ranges shown (as presented in figure)
- Panels showing quarterly horizons include axis ticks at: –1.2, –1.0, –0.8, –0.6, –0.4, –0.2, 0.0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6
- Panels A–D coefficient ranges include axis ticks at: –1.0, –0.8, –0.6, –0.4, –0.2, 0.0 and an alternative set at: –0.20, –0.15, –0.10, –0.05, 0.00, 0.05, 0.10, 0.15, 0.20
- Quantiles explicitly reported: 5th and 50th

### Interpretation summary (from figure annotations)
- Financial conditions, real GDP growth, household leverage, and overvaluation (house price misalignment) are informative predictors for sharp declines in real house prices.
- The analysis distinguishes results for Advanced Economies and Emerging Market Economies and for short (one year) and medium (three years) horizons.
- Statistical significance is flagged at the 10 percent level threshold; insignificant coefficients are outlined or marked in black depending on the panel.

*Source: IMF staff calculations.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-5.pdf_