## Figure 2.6. Evolution of House Prices at Risk and Shifts in Riskiness

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 2.6. Evolution of House Prices at Risk and Shifts in Riskiness](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-6.pdf)

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### Description of panels and measures
- Panels 1–4 depict the one- and three-year-ahead HaR distribution across advanced and emerging market economies:
  - 1. Advanced Economies: One-Year-Ahead HaR (Cross-country interquartile dispersion)
  - 2. Emerging Market Economies: One-Year-Ahead HaR (Cross-country interquartile dispersion)
  - 3. Advanced Economies: Three-Year-Ahead HaR (Cross-country interquartile dispersion)
  - 4. Emerging Market Economies: Three-Year-Ahead HaR (Cross-country interquartile dispersion)
- Panels 5 and 6 show the one- and three-year-ahead HaR levels in 2007:Q4 and 2017:Q4 for advanced and emerging market economies (blue and green, respectively) relative to the overall median HaR.
- Bubble size indicates the country’s 2017 purchasing-power-parity-weighted GDP in US dollars.
- Estimates are based on the panel quantile regression model used in Figure 2.5.
- Acronyms:
  - AEs = advanced economies
  - EMEs = emerging market economies
  - HaR = house prices at risk

### Key quantitative axes and time references
- Vertical axis tick marks shown at: –20, –15, –10, –5, 0, 5
- Time series and comparison years indicated explicitly: 1990, 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017 (displayed concatenated as 199093969920020508111417 in the figure)
- Two comparison dates for country-level HaR: 2007:Q4 and 2017:Q4

### Findings and patterns reported in the figure
- "Countries that were more at risk from house price decline in 2007 seemed less vulnerable in 2017, but some remained at relatively high risk at both periods."
- "House prices at risk fluctuate substantially over time and across countries and display cyclical short-term comovement."
- Categorical risk groupings illustrated for country comparisons in panels 5 and 6:
  - High risk in 2007 and 2017
  - Low risk in 2007 and 2017
  - High risk in 2017 only
  - High risk in 2007 only

### Data and methodological note
- Source: IMF staff calculations.
- Note: Panels 1–4 depict the one- and three-year-ahead HaR distribution across advanced and emerging market economies. Panels 5 and 6 show the one- and three-year-ahead HaR levels in 2007:Q4 and 2017:Q4 for advanced and emerging market economies (blue and green, respectively) relative to the overall median HaR. Bubble size indicates the country’s 2017 purchasing-power-parity-weighted GDP in US dollars. Estimates are based on the panel quantile regression model used in Figure 2.5.

*Source: IMF staff calculations.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-6.pdf_