## Figure 2.7. Predictive Distributions of House Price Risks

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 2.7. Predictive Distributions of House Price Risks](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-7.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-7.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-7.pdf.json)

---

### Distribution of Real House Price Growth One Year Ahead
- Panels 1 and 2: skewed-t predictive distributions of the one-year-ahead real house price growth before the global financial crisis of 2008 (2006:Q3 until 2007:Q3 and 2008:Q3).
- Separate distributions shown for:
  - Advanced Economies
  - Emerging Market Economies
- Horizontal axis tick values (as shown): –24 –12 –16 –20 –8 –40 4 8 12 16 20
- Vertical axis tick values (as shown in Panel 1 and Panel 2): 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
- Additional density-axis tick values (as shown): 0.00 0.40 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

### Short- and Medium-Term Risk (HaR)
- Panels 3 and 4: point estimates of HaR in the short term (one year ahead) and medium term (three years ahead).
- Periods and aggregations shown:
  - 2007:Q4
  - 2017:Q4
  - Median across the entire sample, based on the panel quantile regression model used in Figure 2.5, weighted by 2017 GDP in purchasing-power-parity terms.
- HaR definition: HaR = house prices at risk.
- Finding statements as shown:
  - "House price risk increased before the global financial crisis ..."
  - "... and was higher in the short term than in the medium term."
- Panels 3 and 4 display the 5th percentiles of HaR forecast distributions (labeled as "Short term" and "Medium term").

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-7.pdf_