## Figure 2.8. Factors Affecting House Prices at Risk in the United States and China

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 2.8. Factors Affecting House Prices at Risk in the United States and China](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-8.pdf)

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### Decomposition and definitions
- The figure shows the decomposition of the estimated one-year-ahead HaR at the 5th percentile into contributions of:
  - past house prices
  - financial conditions (FCI)
  - real GDP growth
  - house price misalignment
  - credit boom
- The (negative) constant term is not shown.
- FCI = financial conditions index; HaR = house prices at risk.
- Units: (Annual percent change)

### Time and axis values shown
- Horizontal axis time markers (as presented): 19909396992002050811141719969920020508111417
- Vertical axis tick values (as presented): –12, –10, –8, –6, –4, –2, 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12

### Key findings highlighted in the figure
- United States (Panel 1): Contributions to One-Year HaR
  - Since late 2016, US HaR appears to have deteriorated gradually ...... 
- China (Panel 2): Contributions to One-Year HaR
  - HaR was more volatile in China and was driven mainly by financial conditions.

### Notes on interpretation
- The plotted contributions are additive components of the estimated one-year-ahead 5th percentile HaR.
- The negative constant term that shifts the overall level is omitted from the plotted contributions.

*Source: IMF staff calculations.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/charts/figure2-8.pdf_