## Figure 2.7. Predictive Distributions of House Price Risks

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Figure 2.7. Predictive Distributions of House Price Risks](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/csv/figure27.csv)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/csv/figure27.csv.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/csv/figure27.csv.json)

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### Dataset description
- Worksheet name: "csv"
- Row count: 127
- Column count: 20
- Contains four panel headings present in the file:
  - "1. AEs: Distribution of Real House Price Growth One-Year Ahead (Probability density function)"
  - "2. EMEs: Distribution of Real House Price Growth One-Year Ahead (Probability density function)"
  - "3. AEs: Short- and Medium-Term Risk (5th percentiles of HaR forecast distributions)"
  - "4. EMEs: Short- and Medium-Term Risk (5th percentiles of HaR forecast distributions)"
- Time points explicitly included in sample rows: "2006:Q3", "2007:Q3", "2008:Q3", "2007:Q4", "2017:Q4", and "Median"

### AEs: One-year-ahead probability density function (selected values)
- For house-price-growth value "-24":
  - 2006:Q3: 0.001834371
  - 2007:Q3: 0.002540908
  - 2008:Q3: 0.004010374
- For house-price-growth value "-23.6":
  - 2006:Q3: 0.0019485
  - 2007:Q3: 0.002704099
  - 2008:Q3: 0.004259062
- For house-price-growth value "-23.2":
  - 2006:Q3: 0.002071507
  - 2007:Q3: 0.002880353
  - 2008:Q3: 0.004528437
- For house-price-growth value "-22.8":
  - 2006:Q3: 0.00220422
  - 2007:Q3: 0.003070916
  - 2008:Q3: 0.004820662
- For house-price-growth value "-22.4":
  - 2006:Q3: 0.002347556
  - 2007:Q3: 0.003277176
  - 2008:Q3: 0.005138169

### EMEs: One-year-ahead probability density function (selected values)
- For house-price-growth value "-24":
  - 2006:Q3: 0.001298302
  - 2007:Q3: 0.000817433
  - 2008:Q3: 0.002706432
- For house-price-growth value "-23.6":
  - 2006:Q3: 0.001365249
  - 2007:Q3: 0.000876813
  - 2008:Q3: 0.002884761
- For house-price-growth value "-23.2":
  - 2006:Q3: 0.001436505
  - 2007:Q3: 0.000941334
  - 2008:Q3: 0.003076935
- For house-price-growth value "-22.8":
  - 2006:Q3: 0.001512403
  - 2007:Q3: 0.001011512
  - 2008:Q3: 0.003284178
- For house-price-growth value "-22.4":
  - 2006:Q3: 0.001593303
  - 2007:Q3: 0.00108792
  - 2008:Q3: 0.003507839

### AEs: Short- and medium-term risk (5th percentiles of HaR forecast distributions)
- 2007:Q4
  - Short term: -11.1321766
  - Medium term: -6.817613452
- 2017:Q4
  - Short term: -8.183486346
  - Medium term: -4.915472369
- Median
  - Short term: -7.187722081
  - Medium term: -3.740927658

### EMEs: Short- and medium-term risk (5th percentiles of HaR forecast distributions)
- 2007:Q4
  - Short term: -5.590204324
  - Medium term: -4.847860221
- 2017:Q4
  - Short term: -8.474050926
  - Medium term: -6.064786509
- Median
  - Short term: -9.40432498
  - Medium term: -5.190933617

*Dataset: figure27 (csv worksheet from the provided file) — sample rows and column headings as included in the CSV.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/april/english/ch2data/csv/figure27.csv_