## GFSR Chapter 1 Oct. 2019 — dataset overview

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [GFSR Chapter 1 Oct. 2019 — dataset overview](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/october/english/data/gfsr-oct-2019-ch1.xlsx)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/october/english/data/gfsr-oct-2019-ch1.xlsx.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/october/english/data/gfsr-oct-2019-ch1.xlsx.json)

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### Dataset contents
- Worksheets included (names and table/figure focus):
  - "GFSR Chapter 1 Oct. 2019" — cover and metadata (rowCount: 32, columnCount: 10).
  - "Table of Contents" — references "Chapter 1. Global Financial Stability Overview: Lower for Longer" (rowCount: 43, columnCount: 12).
  - "Figure 1.1." — "Financial Market Developments" (rowCount: 489, columnCount: 31).
  - "Figure 1.2." — "Asset Valuations" (rowCount: 116, columnCount: 39).
  - "Figure 1.3." — "Global Financial Conditions" (rowCount: 242, columnCount: 122).
  - "Figure 1.4." — "Global Financial Vulnerabilities" (rowCount: 1574, columnCount: 21).
  - "Figure 1.5." — "Financial Sector Vulnerabilities" (rowCount: 2939, columnCount: 51).
  - "Figure 1.6." — "Nonfinancial Sector Vulnerabilities" (rowCount: 1111, columnCount: 54).
  - "Figure 1.7." — "Global Growth-at-Risk Estimates" (rowCount: 1609, columnCount: 38).
  - "Figure 1.8." — "Monetary and Macroprudential Policies" (rowCount: 46, columnCount: 16).
  - "Figure 1.1.1." — "Market Impact of the Recent Bank Intervention" (rowCount: 89, columnCount: 30).
  - "Figure 1.2.1." — "Financial Conditions and Financial Vulnerabilities in the Growth-at-Risk Model for the United States: A Counterfactual Scenario Analysis" (rowCount: 88, columnCount: 29).

### Major themes and analytical focus (by figure)
- Financial markets and asset valuations
  - Figure 1.1. — World equity price index series (Index, Jan. 1 2018 = 100) with daily entries (sample date "2018-01-01T00:00:00.000Z" value 100).
  - Figure 1.2. — Ten-year bond term premiums, drivers of US equity volatility, global equity markets price relative to fair value, and global bond spreads.
- Global financial conditions and capital flows
  - Figure 1.3. — Global Financial Conditions index (three-month averages and standard deviations), regional EM conditions, capital flows (billions of US dollars), and sovereign bond issuance (six-month rolling sums).
- Vulnerabilities across sectors
  - Figure 1.4. — Proportion of systemically important economies with elevated vulnerabilities (percent of countries; comparison to global financial crisis).
  - Figure 1.5. — Other nonbank financial sector vulnerabilities (percent of total vulnerability score), individual bank capitalization (2019:Q3), and Chinese banks' capital and profitability (2018).
  - Figure 1.6. — Corporate sector debt vulnerabilities (percent of GDP), government debt 2018:Q4 (percent of GDP), household debt and house price growth (household debt to GDP series and Delta real house prices).
- Growth-at-Risk (GaR) and scenario analysis
  - Figure 1.7. — Growth forecast densities (fifth percentiles of global growth distributions), forecast risks to growth, near-term and medium-term GaR forecasts.
  - Figure 1.2.1. — US GaR counterfactuals: baseline and impacts of changing vulnerabilities and tightening financial conditions.
- Policy space and macroprudential settings
  - Figure 1.8. — Countercyclical capital buffers (level, percent), average nonfinancial private sector vulnerability (quintile), central bank balance sheet (percent of GDP), current policy rate (percent).

### Key sampled statistics and exact values (preserved verbatim)
- Dates and indices:
  - "2018-01-01T00:00:00.000Z" — index value 100 (Figure 1.1. sample).
  - "2018-01-02T00:00:00.000Z" — sample index 101.20849071601941 (Figure 1.1.).
- Asset valuation / model outputs:
  - Ten-year bond term premium deviations: September 2019 values include -78.68675 (United States), -61.42700000000001 (Italy), -54.967999999999996 (United Kingdom), -54.64800000000001 (Germany).
  - Model-fitted and observed VIX-related values: example "April 2019 GFSR" 0.11195839324282109.
- Global Financial Conditions / flows:
  - Sample index entries: 2016-03-31T00:00:00.000Z — 0.03849433580632436 (US component), 2016-03-31T00:00:00.000Z — 0.9476658058818731 (Latin America index sample).
  - Portfolio flows sample: "2015-02-01T00:00:00.000Z" — 10.05583 and 42.26204.
- Vulnerabilities and sector metrics:
  - Proportion with elevated household vulnerabilities: 40.781393431341925 (Figure 1.4. sample).
  - Financial sector vulnerability components (selected): Liquidity mismatch — 15.716931317727386 (Apr. 2019 China); Maturity mismatch — 9.92876283455426 (Apr. 2019 China).
  - Individual bank capitalization sample: "Big 5" capital indicator 1.11915158132522 and 11.54 (Figure 1.5. sample).
- Nonfinancial sector / household and government metrics:
  - China corporate sector sample: 2009 entry for "China" and debt-at-risk 19.18839459867731; "19E" entry 34.69540470033211 (Figure 1.6.).
  - Household debt to GDP sample series entries: 48.8, 60.8, 60.1, 52.9, 43.2, 40.3, 66.3, 102, 66.4, 58.9, 120.3, 100.7, 72.2, 115.4, 58.1, 97.7, 99.9, 54.7, 88.6, 128.7, 87.1, 76.3.
  - Delta real house prices sample entries include 43.34, 3.260000000000005, -4.530000000000001, 24.22, -12.930000000000007, -28.190000000000012, 37.3, -9.060000000000002, 5.010000000000005, -29.10000000000001, 25.840000000000003, 43.459999999999994, 101.18, -0.06999999999999318, 6.409999999999997, 2.989999999999995, 28.64999999999999, 3.3499999999999943, 51.25999999999999, 29.89, 5.400000000000006, 20.72.
- Growth-at-Risk and scenario numbers:
  - Baseline GaR as of 2019:Q3 — Near term 1.56, Medium term -1.24 (Figure 1.2.1. and Figure 1.7.).
  - Counterfactual scenario samples: "High vulnerabilities" — Near term 1.09, Medium term -2.38; "Low vulnerabilities" — Near term 2.1, Medium term 0.27; "Tight financial conditions and low vulnerabilities" — Near term 0.42939362837839745, Medium term 0.2664650673350129; "Tight financial conditions and high vulnerabilities" — Near term -0.54, Medium term -2.08.
  - Global growth distribution sample: -4.000000000000085 (fifth percentile value), with associated tiny probabilities 0.000001727114875653126 and 0.003486212453262466 for density components (Figure 1.7.).
- Monetary and macroprudential policy samples:
  - Countercyclical capital buffers sample levels: 5.01 and 5.02 (Figure 1.8.).
  - Central Bank Balance Sheet (percent of GDP) sample: "AUS" 9.64783334694912; Current Policy Rate sample: "ECB" -0.4.

### Structure and file-level metadata (sampled)
- Worksheet sample row/column counts:
  - "GFSR Chapter 1 Oct. 2019": rowCount 32, columnCount 10.
  - "Table of Contents": rowCount 43, columnCount 12.
  - "Figure 1.5.": rowCount 2939, columnCount 51 (largest rowCount in sample).
- Timestamps in metadata rows:
  - "2019-10-11T00:00:00.000Z" appears in worksheet header metadata.

*Dataset: gfsr-oct-2019-ch1 (extract of worksheet names, figure titles, and sampled numeric values).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/october/english/data/gfsr-oct-2019-ch1.xlsx_