## dataset overview ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [dataset overview](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/october/english/data/gfsr-oct-2019-ch4.xlsx) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/october/english/data/gfsr-oct-2019-ch4.xlsx.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/october/english/data/gfsr-oct-2019-ch4.xlsx.json) --- ### Dataset description - Title present in workbook: "Chapter 4. Emerging and Frontier Markets: Mind the Debt". - Workbook contains multiple worksheets corresponding to figures and tables from GFSR Chapter 4 (Oct. 2019), including: - "GFSR Chapter 4 Oct. 2019" - "Table of Contents" - "Figure 4.1." - "Figure 4.2." - "Figure 4.3." - "Figure 4.4." - "Figure 4.5" ### Key figures and captions (as labeled in the dataset) - Figure 4.1. Portfolio Flows to Emerging and Frontier Markets - Subpanels and captions include: - "4. IMF WEO Growth Forecasts for EMs, excluding China" - "5. Estimated Contributions to EM Debt Portfolio Flows" - "6. Debt Portfolio Flows to EMs: Actual and Estimated Quantiles of Flows in the Medium Term as of Q2:2019" - Metric labels shown: "(Percent, year over year)"; "(Percent of EM GDP, excluding China)"; "(Four-quarter moving average, percent of EM GDP)" - Figure 4.2. Emerging Market Hard Currency Bond Markets - Subpanels and captions include: - "2. Cumulative Impact of External and Domestic Drivers of EMBIG Spreads" - "4. Distribution of Countries on the Valuation Spectrum, across Ratings" - "5. Distribution of Countries on the Valuation Spectrum, across Ratings" - "6. Coefficients of the Global Risk-Appetite Variable (US BBB spreads)" - Metric labels shown: "(Basis points)"; "(Percent; overvaluation is adjusted by the spread level)"; "(Percent)"; "Share of GDP" - Figure 4.3. Rising Debt in Emerging and Frontier Markets - Subpanels and captions include: - "1. External Debt to Exports" - "2. Sovereign Debt to GDP" - "3. Altman Z-Score for EM Corporations" - "4. Corporate Debt" - Metric labels shown: "(Percent)"; "(Index)"; "(Percent and percentage points)" - Figure 4.4. Emerging Market State-Owned Enterprises - Subpanels and captions include: - "1. Outstanding EM Hard Currency Bonds by Type" - "2. Return on Invested Capital (Net Operating Profit to Invested Capital) and Leverage (Debt to Assets), (Percent)" - "3. Average Ratings of Major SOEs and their Sovereigns" - "4. Spread to Sovereign versus Rating Uplift" - "5. Outward Spillovers between SOEs and Sovereigns" - "6. Debt of Major SOEs versus Government Debt" - Metric labels shown: "(As a share of total external debt)"; "(Index of outward spillovers, based on bond spreads, Jan. 2013 = 200)"; "(Percent, excluding China)" - Figure 4.5. Frontier Bond Valuations, Issuance, and Debt Vulnerabilities - Subpanels and captions include: - "1. Dollar Bond Yields of Frontier Borrowers" - "2. Hard Currency Debt Issuance for Frontiers" - "3. Composition of External Public Debt of Frontier Markets" - "4. Hard Currency Debt Redemptions of Frontier Markets" - "5. External Public Debt Service to the Private Sector" - "6. Countries with High Risk of Debt Distress or in Debt Distress" - Metric labels shown: "(Percent, secondary market)"; "(Billions of US dollars)"; "(Share of total, average percent of GDP, left scale; billions of US dollars, right scale)"; "(Percent of GDP)"; "(Share of total, percent)" ### Selected numeric values and sample data points (preserved exactly) - From Figure 4.1 (IMF WEO Growth Forecasts for EMs, excluding China): - Oct. 2019: 2018 = 3.58180783174591; 2019 = 2.8586533964520524; 2020 = 3.938318685233302; 2021 = 4.247974328257578 - Apr. 2019: 2018 = 3.613552827264841; 2019 = 3.4455585498751122; 2020 = 4.219496362106097; 2021 = 4.297748699940147 - Jan. 2019: 2018 = 3.7545408115225736; 2019 = 3.74698879409791; 2020 = 4.210570813347203; 2021 = 4.299552065468682 - Example regression components (Oct. 2019 row): Risk aversion = 0.1317599999999998; EM growth = 0.5891463697243435; 10-year Treasury yields = 0.0347858150000001; Constant = 0.398683; Total = 1.1543751847243433 - "Capital flows at risk" value shown: -0.196323952233079 (also appears as a repeat in that row) - From Figure 4.2 (coefficients and distribution samples): - 2010-03-01T00:00:00.000Z: Domestic = 0; External = 0 - 2010-06-01T00:00:00.000Z: Domestic = 0; External = 32.797620612030016 - Rating-group examples (2010-06-01 row): A rating bucket shows 5.787837749828512 (Overvalued share); distribution entries include 0.11851116276761245, -0.2163204807035795, 0.08310812367232234, 0.4635357787510478, 1.667233904391795, 2.6214366020650623 (coefficients/values listed in sample) - From Figure 4.3 (debt and leverage samples): - External Debt to Exports, 1995 median = 163.68270894710275; 50th-75th percentile = 89.9143117446254; 75th-90th percentile = 151.27745861302597 - Sovereign Debt to GDP, 1995 median = 49.06055091208522; 50th-75th percentile = 24.74320334489171; 75th-90th percentile = 6.940999925048459 - Altman Z-Score sample (2006) entries: 2.038387919932745; 2.1931410835710214; 3.1280952066927834; 2.7359493737339644; 3.495407500858749 - Corporate Leverage examples: "Change in Corporate Leverage since 2009" for "Latin America" = 16.6; example regional values include 1.700000000000001 and 5.5 and 26 (as listed in sample rows) - From Figure 4.4 (SOE and bond statistics): - Sovereign hard currency bonds: 2013 share = 0.0800852979504798; 2019 share = 0.1052927400468384 - SOE hard currency bonds: 2013 share = 0.07866366544248311; 2019 share = 0.0985480093676815 - Corporate hard currency bonds: 2013 share = 0.08470560360146902; 2019 share = 0.1102576112412178 - Example ROIC/leverage percentiles (2007): 25th = 8.913184371896795; Median = 12.60401016138816; 75th = 15.766955671671676 - Example country/SOE entries: "Mexico", "PEMEX", rating uplift from sovereign (notch) = 6; "Spread to sovereign (basis points)" = 216.7520309423942 - Example country/SOE entries: "Brazil", "Petrobras", rating uplift from sovereign (notch) = 2; "Spread to sovereign (basis points)" = 54.98035577403314 - From Figure 4.5 (Frontier bond and issuance samples): - Dollar Bond Yields of Frontier Borrowers sample (2012-01-06T00:00:00.000Z): Low = 6.11; Median = 8.01; High = 2.759999999999999 - Regional hard currency issuance examples: - Sub-Saharan Africa (2012-01-06T00:00:00.000Z): Bonds issuance series include 0, 1.4695900000000002, 0.73581, 3.6120400000000004, 7.01318, 6.67628, 0.75, 8.052069999999999, 17.21267, 8.863010000000001 - Europe and Central Asia (2012-01-13T00:00:00.000Z) example issuance series: 1.00207, 1.2911700000000002, 0, 0.6902, 1.22564, 0.48784, 0, 1.8909099999999999, 0.6, 2.4 - Frontiers, total (time series sample): 0.6077875233186634; 0.7810647122706853; 0.6030037763375153; 0.7949209807586208; 0.8074719178855482; 1.0208729419593516; 1.1292920977203098; 1.1463901974390682; 1.4361366821392223 - LIDCs percent-share examples across years: 35.18518518518518; 33.92857142857143; 28.57142857142857; 21.42857142857143; 21.05263157894737; 22.413793103448278; 26.785714285714285; 39.285714285714285; 42.85714285714286; 42.85714285714286 - "Frontiers, (of which) bonds" series sample: 0.23719553841035887; 0.45275766218372704; 0.324531785950172; 0.505665801067365; 0.41452674840326087; 0.7084891895421395; 0.72959009587931; 0.7881677618055006; 0.7817476926863293 ### Data characteristics and structure notes - Worksheets contain many time-stamped series entries using ISO timestamps (e.g., "2012-01-06T00:00:00.000Z", "2010-03-01T00:00:00.000Z"). - Numeric precision is high and preserved in cells (examples include many long decimal values such as 3.58180783174591). - Some cells contain error markers in the worksheet extract (e.g., {"error":"#N/A"}). - The workbook organizes figure panels with textual labels and metric units; numeric columns include medians, percentiles, shares, indexes, and time series. *Source: gfsr-oct-2019-ch4 (workbook containing worksheet samples and figure tables for Chapter 4: "Emerging and Frontier Markets: Mind the Debt")* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2019/october/english/data/gfsr-oct-2019-ch4.xlsx_