## 2022 APR infographic

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [2022 APR infographic](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2022/april/english/infographic.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2022/april/english/infographic.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2022/april/english/infographic.pdf.json)

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### Key messages
- Central banks should act decisively to prevent inflation pressure from becoming entrenched and avoid an unmooring of inflation expectations, while avoiding a disorderly tightening of financial conditions that would jeopardize the post-pandemic economic recovery.
- Policy normalization in emerging markets should continue based on country-specific assessment of inflation, economic outlook.
- Regulators should assess the implications of the elevated volatility in commodity markets on market functioning and risk management.
- Policymakers should intensify their efforts to implement the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) roadmap while taking appropriate steps to address energy security concerns.

### Inflation, commodity prices, and expectations
- Inflation expectations increasing (inflation breakeven, percent): series shown for US 5 year and Euro area 5 year with axis ticks 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and monthly labels Jan-21 through Mar-22.
- Commodity price volatility surging (percent): axis ticks 0.0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0 with timeline Jan-20 to Jan-22; US Treasury bonds and German bunds shown.
- Commodity shocks highlighted for Aluminum, Copper, Nickel, Coal, Oil, Gas with price-change axis from -160 to 200 and timeline Jan-20 to Jan-22.

### Financial conditions and spillovers
- Global financial conditions have tightened and downside risks to the economic outlook increased, though no material systemic event affecting financial institutions or markets has materialized so far.
- Financial conditions tightening, notably in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia (standard deviations from the mean).
- Bid-ask spreads of high-quality government bonds the widest since the peak of the COVID-19 crisis (basis points).
- Cross-currency basis spreads showing some strains (three-month, basis points) with currency series for Euro, Japanese yen, British pound; Feb. 23 marker present.
- Weekly percent change timeline with axis from -15 to 15 and labels Jan-62 through Jan-22 showing historical volatility.

### Direct and indirect exposures; transmission channels of the War in Ukraine
- Foreign banks and NBFIs’ gross claims on Russia and Ukraine (Billions of US dollars) shown.
- Transmission channels of the War in Ukraine illustrated across commodity prices, energy security vs energy transition, funding and liquidity stress, financial-condition tightening and spillovers to emerging markets, corporate exodus from Russia.
- Russia’s share in global production (percent) shown in context of commodity and energy exposures.

### Corporate exits and investment impacts
- Corporate exodus from Russia (number of large firms, by type of exit): plotted categories include Withdrawal, Suspension, Scaling back, No expansion, No change with a numerical series displayed: 65, 6, 312, 54, 8, 528, 0, 150, 300, 450, 600 (as presented in the infographic).
- Limited investment in renewable energy may put the transition at risk; total capacity in gigawatts shown with timeline 2010–26 and scenario labels: Actual, Main case, Net zero by 2050 (additional capacity), Accelerated case (additional capacity).

### Capital flows, outflows, and downside scenarios
- Capital outflows increasing, with risks to the downside.
- Capital flows at risk: probability of outflows and percent of GDP comparisons labelled "October 2021 GFSR", "Latest", and "Risk-off scenario".
- Specific probability and percent values shown: 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.5% and Probability of outflows 20%, 30%, 50%.

### Data sources and notes
- Sources listed: Bank for International Settlements; Bloomberg Finance L.P.; BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, July 2021; Haver Analytics; JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Morningstar; UN Comtrade; US Geological Survey; and IMF staff calculations.
- Note: GFSR = Global Financial Stability Report; NBFIs = Nonbank financial intermediaries.

*Infographic (PDF) content provided by IMF staff calculations and the listed data sources.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2022/april/english/infographic.pdf_