## Box 1. El Niño and Its Expected Impact

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### Overview
- El Niño: warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- World Meteorological Organization declared the onset of El Niño conditions in July 2023.
- U.S. Climate Prediction Center (September 2023) advisory: El Niño event persisting throughout the 2023/24 winter with a greater-than 95 percent probability and 71 percent odds of the event being “strong.”

### Typical regional impacts
- Western and southern Africa, Australia, Southeast Asia, and Central America: typically drier conditions with adverse effects on crop yields.
- Significant world supplies of wheat and rice particularly at risk.
- Warmer ocean surface waters along South America’s western coastline: disrupted marine ecosystem, negative effects on fish output, increased hurricane activity.
- Parts of southern South America, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia: increased precipitation could boost agricultural output (barring damaging floods).
- Energy demand and production impacts, particularly from hydroelectric dams, due to shifting temperatures and precipitation patterns.

### Historical effects on markets and food security
- Presence of El Niño conditions increases likelihood of food shortages, price spikes, or severe weather events but does not necessarily cause them.
- Impact on global food markets depends on strength and duration of El Niño and countries’ policy responses.
- Stockpiling by importers and export restrictions by exporters could destabilize global markets and cause large fluctuations in commodity prices.
- IMF staff estimate: previous El Niño episodes have raised global food prices by an average of 5 percent in the course of a year (IMF, 2023c).

### Policy recommendations and preparedness
- Activate early warning and response plans; prepare temporary and targeted contingency measures for droughts, landslides, flooding.
- Maintain open trade to ensure steady flow of food staples to vulnerable countries; focus on:
  - removing trade barriers for food staples, fertilizers, and other agricultural inputs,
  - phasing out export bans by food producers,
  - avoiding market-distorting subsidies,
  - facilitating food transportation,
  - addressing supply bottlenecks.
- International community should mobilize assistance to the most vulnerable countries and facilitate food market integration and information-sharing, notably on climate-related risks and global food supply conditions.
- Long-term efforts: support transforming food production and distribution; accelerate climate adaptation and mitigation, including investments in climate-resilient agriculture.
- Enhance support for countries impacted by compounding effects of fragility and conflict.

### IMF responses and financing measures
- IMF coordination with international partners including WB, WTO, WFP, FAO to ensure timely, tailored, efficient, and coordinated responses.
- Policy advice and capacity development: strengthen social safety nets, trade policy, and broader macroeconomic frameworks to protect vulnerable groups, reduce inflation and macroeconomic instability risks, and avoid export restrictions.
- IMF intensified efforts to strengthen resilience to climate change and facilitate donor engagement; IMF strategy for FCS countries envisages significant scaling up of capacity development assistance to countries with fragilities (IMF, 2022b).
- Deployed and created financial assistance tools:
  - Twenty-nine countries assessed as particularly affected by the food shock have received financing from the Fund, in addition to several precautionary arrangements.
  - Upper Credit Tranche (UCT) Arrangements: As of September 2023, 25 UCT-quality programs are in place with countries strongly affected by the food shock. Of these, 14 countries have benefited from new programs since the start of the war in Ukraine (Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic, Honduras, Mauritania, Mozambique, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Ukraine, and Zambia). Moreover, the IMF has approved five augmentations of existing programs.
  - Food Shock Window (FSW) under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) and the concessional Rapid Credit Facility (RCF): Approved by the IMF Executive Board in September 2022—initially for 12 months, with a subsequent additional 6-month extension until end-March 2024—to make available emergency financing for urgent balance of payments needs associated with the global food shock where a UCT-quality program is either not feasible or not necessary.
    - As of September 2023, six requests (Burkina Faso, Guinea, Haiti, Malawi, South Sudan, and Ukraine) for financing under the new FSW have been approved in the amount of SDR1.4 billion (US$1.8 billion).
    - Two beneficiary countries, Ukraine and Burkina Faso, have since transitioned to UCT-quality programs.
  - Ongoing discussions on new IMF financing for several of the 45 countries particularly affected by the food crisis; some do not face a balance-of-payments need, a necessary condition for Fund financing. In a few countries, IMF financing is currently not possible due to recognition issues or severe governance and debt challenges.
  - Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST): Since inception, 11 countries have benefitted from RST financing totaling SDR4.4 billion (US$5.7 billion) to strengthen resilience to climate change, including climate-resilient agriculture. Examples: water management reforms in Senegal; incentives for land and water management in Kenya; disaster risks management in Barbados, Rwanda and Bangladesh; early warning system for floods and climate-related events in Kenya.

---

### Box 2. Recent Activities of the Food and Agriculture Organization, World Food Programme, World Bank Group, and World Trade Organization to Combat the Global Food Crisis (concluded)

### WTO engagement and operational activities
- Participation in the Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance; involvement in work on fertilizers.
- WTO Director-General coordinating joint responses with other international agency principals, including joint statements on the global food crisis.
- Despite lapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, WTO supports UN efforts, with Türkiye, to ease exports of food and fertilizers from the Black Sea region.
- WTO working with partners on research and analysis to inform policy responses.
- Building on MC12 outcomes: members agreed to pursue two work programmes focusing on:
  - The food security challenges faced by Net Food-Importing Developing Countries and Least Developed Countries.
  - Sanitary and Phytosanitary issues raised under the MC12 declaration.
- Monitoring restrictions: As of August 25, out of 110 export restrictions imposed since the start of the war in Ukraine, 44 were phased out, bringing the total number down to 66.
- Strengthening transparency: WTO committees provide forums to address issues and improve predictability; in May, WTO launched the wheat maritime trade and food security dashboard developed with the International Grains Council to monitor short-term trends in international maritime wheat trade flows.
- Negotiating reforms ahead of the thirteenth ministerial conference in Abu Dhabi in February 2024; senior officials meeting scheduled for end-October 2023. Key topics: updating WTO rules on domestic support to the farm sector, impacts on developing countries’ ability to procure food at administered prices for public stocks, access to agricultural markets, and export restrictions on food.

### IMF program responses to the food shock (Table 1: New programs and augmentations)
- Total commitments: US$ 32.1 billions
- Selected country commitments and objectives (entries preserve original text and numeric values):
  - Honduras (September 2023) — 822: New Program: preserve macroeconomic stability; build well-targeted and wide-reaching social safety net; build resilience to climate change.
  - Burkina Faso (September 2023) — 302: New Program: create fiscal space for priority spending; strengthen resilience to shocks while reducing poverty; bolster fiscal discipline, transparency and governance.
  - Burundi (July 2023) — 271: New Program: address protracted external imbalances; strengthen inclusive economic growth and resilience; reduce fragility and tackle poverty and inequality.
  - Pakistan (July 2023) — 3,019: New Program: stabilize the economy and rebuild buffers after floods, commodity shock from the war in Ukraine, and tightening financing conditions.
  - Kenya (July 2023) — 551: Program Augmentation: address high cost of living, exchange rate pressures, mobilizing budgeted resources; augmentation of access under EFF/ECF arrangements.
  - Central African Republic (April. 2023) — 190: New Program: free up fiscal space and catalyze donor support; framework for domestic reforms.
  - Ukraine (March 2023) — 15,600: New Program: sustain economic and financial stability; restore debt sustainability; promote reforms supporting recovery and EU accession path.
  - Sri Lanka (March 2023) — 3,062: New Program: restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability; strengthen social safety nets; safeguard financial sector stability; strengthen governance.
  - Bangladesh (January 2023) — 3,300: New Program: preserve macroeconomic stability; prevent disruptive adjustments; protect the vulnerable; support strong, inclusive, and environmentally sustainable growth.
  - Mauritania (January 2023) — 86: New Program: preserve macroeconomic stability; strengthen fiscal and monetary frameworks; consolidate foundations for sustainable and inclusive growth.
  - The Gambia (December 2022) — 21: Program Augmentation: meet urgent financing gap in 2022; maintain adequate forex reserves ahead of large increase in debt service obligations from 2025.
  - Kenya (December 2022) — 216: Program Augmentation: respond to multi-season drought and elevated food prices; ease pressures on reserves and ensure budget continuity.
  - Pakistan (September 2022) — 936: Program Augmentation: guide policy implementation amid domestic and external imbalances and high food and fuel prices.
  - Zambia (August 2022) — 1,272: New Program: reestablish sustainability through fiscal adjustment and debt restructuring; create fiscal space for social spending; strengthen governance.
  - Benin (July 2022) — 637: New Program: address financing needs related to security, COVID-19 scars, and war in Ukraine; support national development plan and catalyze donor support.
  - Tanzania (July 2022) — 1,046: New Program: assist economic recovery; address spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; preserve macroeconomic stability and support structural reforms.
  - Cabo Verde (June 2022) — 60: New Program: mitigate impact of COVID-19 and spillover effects of war in Ukraine; reduce fiscal deficit; protect vulnerable groups.
  - Mozambique (May 2022) — 455: New Program: support economic recovery; reduce public debt and financing vulnerabilities; create space for investments in human capital, climate adaptation, and infrastructure.
  - Moldova (May 2022) — 260: Program Augmentation: address spillovers from the war in Ukraine including energy price spikes, trade disruptions, and confidence effects.

### IMF Emergency Lending Support through the Food Shock Window (Table 2)
- Total disbursements: US$ 1.8 billions
- Country disbursements and objectives (entries preserve original text and numeric values):
  - Burkina Faso (March 2023) — 80.9: Use disbursed resources to provide urgent financial and direct food support (cash transfers, free food, subsidized cereal sales); improve clean water supply and sell key agricultural inputs such as fertilizers at subsidized prices; gradually lift temporary food-related export restrictions.
  - South Sudan (March 2023) — 113.8: Disbursement for budget support will enable authorities to avoid premature fiscal contraction and allocate immediately US$15 million to the WFP and US$5 million to the International Organization for Migration; remainder to finance education spending.
  - Haiti (January 2023) — 110.6: Support to address urgent balance-of-payment needs attributable to acute food insecurity and higher food import costs; emergency financing to increase cash transfers and food rations, begin school feeding programs and provide hot meals, and waive school fees.
  - Guinea (December 2022) — 71.4: Emergency financing to address urgent balance-of-payment needs; about 30 percent for in-kind food distribution managed by WFP, about 40 percent for cash transfers, rest to help import fertilizers.
  - Malawi (November 2022) — 91.1: Emergency financing to address urgent balance-of-payment needs and mitigate the food shock, including strengthening cash transfer programs for vulnerable households.
  - Ukraine (October 2022) — 1,290.1: Rapid Financing Instrument purchase provided critical support to mitigate shock to the export base and catalyzed financing from other partners to close the external financing gap.

### Annex: Countries vulnerable to food and fertilizer price increases (selected entries and indicators)
- Selected entries with indicators (entries preserve numeric values exactly):
  - Afghanistan — Yes ... ...
  - Angola — Yes 0.03 0.03
  - Bangladesh — Yes 0.05 -0.01
  - Burkina Faso — Yes 0.03 0.01
  - Burundi — Yes 0.05 0.04
  - Gambia, The — No 0.34 0.30
  - Guinea — Yes 0.16 0.14
  - Haiti — Yes 0.05 0.04
  - Honduras — Yes 0.19 0.12
  - Madagascar — Yes 0.15 0.13
  - Malawi — Yes -0.10 -0.22
  - Mozambique — Yes 0.14 0.11
  - Pakistan — Yes -0.08 ...
  - Sierra Leone — Yes 0.37 0.34
  - Ukraine — Yes -0.27 ...
  - Yemen — Yes 0.16 0.14
  - Zambia — Yes -0.07 -0.10
  - Zimbabwe — Yes 0.33 0.18
- Annex notes:
  - Sources: WEO, UN Comtrade, USDA, World Bank and IMF Staff calculations.
  - 1/ As determined by the FSIN GRFC 2023 report and FAO-WFP Hunger Hotspots June–November 2023 Outlook.
  - 2/ See IMF 2022a for details on methodology and commodities analyzed. Impacts equal to or above 0.3 percent of GDP are in red, those below are in green.

*Source: insea2023002-s001 - Box 1. El Niño and Its Expected Impact; Box 2. Recent Activities of the Food and Agriculture Organization, World Food Programme, World Bank Group, and World Trade Organization to Combat the Global Food Crisis (concluded).*

### Box 1. El Niño and Its Expected Impact

### Box 1. El Niño and Its Expected Impact

### Overview
- El Niño is a climatic phenomenon characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- In July 2023, the World Meteorological Organization declared the onset of El Niño conditions.
- In September 2023, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center issued an advisory of an El Niño event persisting throughout the 2023/24 winter with a greater-than 95 percent probability and 71 percent odds of the event being “strong.”

### Typical regional impacts
- Vast swaths of western and southern Africa, Australia, Southeast Asia, and Central America typically experience drier conditions with adverse effects on crop yields.
- Significant sources of world supply of wheat and rice are particularly at risk.
- Warmer ocean surface waters along South America’s western coastline disrupt the marine ecosystem—with negative effects on fish output—and increase hurricane activity.
- By contrast, barring damaging floods, increased precipitation in parts of southern South America, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia could boost agricultural output.
- Shifting temperatures and precipitation patterns can also be expected to have varied impact on energy demand and production, particularly from hydroelectric dams.

### Historical effects on markets and food security
- While the presence of El Niño conditions does not necessarily lead to food shortages, price spikes, or severe weather events, their likelihood is increased.
- The impact on global food markets will depend on the strength and duration of El Niño, as well as countries’ policy responses.
- Stockpiling by food importers and a proliferation of export restrictions by food exporters could contribute to a destabilization of global markets by causing large fluctuations in commodity prices.
- The IMF staff estimates previous El Niño episodes to have raised global food prices by an average of 5 percent in the course of a year (IMF, 2023c).

### Policy recommendations and preparedness
- Countries at risk of adverse El Niño effects need to activate early warning and response plans and prepare temporary and targeted contingency measures to protect their populations should risks such as droughts, landslides, and flooding materialize.
- Maintaining open trade is crucial for ensuring a steady flow of food staples to vulnerable countries. Efforts should focus on:
  - removing trade barriers for food staples, fertilizers, and other agricultural inputs,
  - phasing out export bans by food producers,
  - avoiding market-distorting subsidies,
  - facilitating food transportation,
  - addressing supply bottlenecks.
- The international community needs to continue mobilizing assistance to the most vulnerable countries and facilitate international food market integration and information-sharing, notably on climate-related risks and global food supply conditions.
- Long-term efforts to address food insecurity should include support for transforming food production and distribution and accelerating climate adaptation and mitigation efforts, including investments in climate-resilient agriculture.
- Enhancing support for the most vulnerable countries, especially those impacted by the compounding effects of fragility and conflict, will be required.

### IMF responses and financing measures
- The IMF has been working closely with international partners, including the World Bank (WB), World Trade Organization (WTO), WFP, FAO, and others, to ensure timely, tailored, efficient, and coordinated responses.
- Policy advice and capacity development assistance have focused on strengthening social safety nets and on trade policy, as well as broader macroeconomic policy frameworks to protect vulnerable groups, reduce inflation and macroeconomic instability risks, and identify sustainable ways to tackle food insecurity without recourse to export restrictions.
- The IMF intensified efforts to help countries strengthen resilience to climate change and facilitate donor engagement, and the IMF’s strategy for FCS countries envisages significant scaling up of capacity development assistance to countries with fragilities (IMF, 2022b).
- Since the onset of the food crisis, the IMF has deployed existing financial assistance tools and put in place new ones:
  - Twenty-nine countries that were assessed as particularly affected by the food shock have received financing from the Fund, in addition to several precautionary arrangements approved for countries without immediate financing needs.
  - Upper Credit Tranche (UCT) Arrangements: As of September 2023, 25 UCT-quality programs are in place with countries strongly affected by the food shock. Of these, 14 countries have benefited from new programs since the start of the war in Ukraine (Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic, Honduras, Mauritania, Mozambique, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Ukraine, and Zambia). Moreover, the IMF has approved five augmentations of existing programs.
  - Food Shock Window (FSW) under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) and the concessional Rapid Credit Facility (RCF): Approved by the IMF Executive Board in September 2022—initially for 12 months, with a subsequent additional 6-month extension until end-March 2024—to make available emergency financing for urgent balance of payments needs associated with the global food shock where a UCT-quality program is either not feasible or not necessary.
    - As of September 2023, six requests (Burkina Faso, Guinea, Haiti, Malawi, South Sudan, and Ukraine) for financing under the new FSW have been approved in the amount of SDR1.4 billion (US$1.8 billion).
    - Two of the beneficiary countries, Ukraine and Burkina Faso, have since transitioned to UCT-quality programs.
  - Discussions on new IMF financing are ongoing for several other of the 45 countries particularly affected by the food crisis; some do not face a balance-of-payments need, a necessary condition for Fund financing. In a few countries, IMF financing is currently not possible due to recognition issues or severe governance and debt challenges.
  - Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST): Since its inception, 11 countries have benefitted from RST financing totaling SDR4.4 billion (US$5.7 billion) in support of efforts to strengthen resilience to climate change, including through more climate-resilient agriculture in rural areas. Examples include reforms to improve water management in Senegal, and to incentivize land and water management in Kenya. Adaptation reforms include strengthening disaster risks management in Barbados, Rwanda and Bangladesh, and building an early warning system against floods and climate-related events in Kenya.

### Activities by international partners (high-level highlights)
- FAO:
  - In 2022, reached at least 36 million people with direct emergency and resilience assistance in 77 countries; main interventions supported crop production (19 million people assisted) and livestock/animal health (14.5 million people assisted).
  - Delivered US$67 million worth of cash and voucher assistance to 3.2 million beneficiaries in 34 countries; trained 1.4 million people including farmers, partners and government staff.
  - Implemented the FAO Ukraine Rapid Response Plan (RRP) for May-December 2022 to assist nearly 1 million rural people; assessed Ukraine’s agricultural reconstruction and recovery investment needs at US$29.7 billion over a ten-year period.
  - Intensified market intelligence services and co-leads work on food in the UN Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance (GCRG).
- WFP:
  - In 2022, reached 160 million people with food, cash, and commodity vouchers; in the first two quarters of 2023 assisted an estimated 120 million people—8 million more than a year earlier; plans to assist upwards of 170 million people in 2023.
  - Reports, according to the WFP methodology, 345 million people acutely food insecure in 2023—more than double the number in 2020.
  - Current funding forecast for 2023 stands at US$10 billion, leaving a 60 percent gap; almost half of WFP country operations have already cut—or plan to cut—the size and scope of assistance.
  - Emphasizes prioritizing humanitarian action while investing in long-term programmes that build communities’ resilience to shocks.
- World Bank Group (WBG):
  - Has made available US$45 billion within 15 months by combining US$22 billion in new lending with US$23 billion from the existing portfolio—exceeding the Bank’s initial US$30 billion commitment.
  - Allocated US$20 billion towards short-term responses and US$25 billion towards resilience.
  - Committed US$8.8 billion (40 percent of new commitments) in food and nutrition security “hotspots.”
  - The Crisis Response Window Early Response Financing (CRW ERF) has allocated US$898 million to 23 countries and is nearly depleted with about US$100 million remaining for the remainder of the IDA20 cycle (through June 30, 2025).
  - The WBG’s FNS response is expected to reach over 335 million people, of which about half will be women; so far almost 90 million people have been reached.
- World Trade Organization (WTO):
  - At MC12 in June 2022, adopted a Ministerial Declaration on the Emergency Response to Food Insecurity and decisions on humanitarian food aid and export restrictions, and a Fisheries Subsidies Agreement.
  - WTO members committed to take concrete steps to facilitate trade and improve the functioning and long-term resilience of global markets for food and agriculture.
  - Continued engagement includes monitoring trade restrictions, strengthening transparency, and negotiating reforms.

*Source: insea2023002-s001 - Box 1. El Niño and Its Expected Impact*

### Box 2. Recent Activities of the Food and Agriculture Organization, World Food Programme,

### Box 2. Recent Activities of the Food and Agriculture Organization, World Food Programme, World Bank Group, and World Trade Organization to Combat the Global Food Crisis (concluded)

### WTO engagement and operational activities
- Engagement with partners:
  - The WTO is participating actively in the Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance set up by the UN Secretary-General, including its work on fertilizers.
  - The WTO Director-General is working with principals of other international agencies to articulate joint responses, including through a series of joint statements on the global food crisis.
  - Despite the lapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, the WTO continues to support the UN’s efforts, with Türkiye, to ease exports of food and fertilizers from the Black Sea region.
  - The WTO continues to work with partners on research and analysis to help inform policy responses.
- Building on MC12 outcomes:
  - WTO members agreed to pursue two work programmes focusing on:
    - 1). The food security challenges faced by Net Food-Importing Developing Countries and Least Developed Countries.
    - 2). Sanitary and Phytosanitary issues (concerning food safety, and plant and animal health) raised under the MC12 declaration on this topic.
- Monitoring restrictions:
  - The WTO closely monitors trade restrictions, including export restrictions, imposed by its members on food, feed, and fertilizers, and issues regular reports.
  - As of August 25, out of 110 such export restrictions imposed since the start of the war in Ukraine, 44 were phased out, bringing the total number down to 66.
- Strengthening transparency:
  - WTO committees provide a forum for members to address issues and improve predictability of global markets for food and agriculture.
  - In May, the WTO launched the wheat maritime trade and food security dashboard, developed jointly with the International Grains Council, to monitor short-term trends in international maritime wheat trade flows.
- Negotiating reforms:
  - WTO members are prioritizing food security in agricultural trade negotiations ahead of the thirteenth ministerial conference in Abu Dhabi in February 2024.
  - A meeting of senior officials scheduled for end-October 2023 is an important steppingstone toward the conference.
  - Key negotiation topics include updating WTO rules on domestic support to the farm sector, impacts on developing countries’ ability to procure food at administered prices for public stocks, access to agricultural markets, and export restrictions on food.

### IMF program responses to the food shock (Table 1: New programs and augmentations)
- Total commitments (listed as Total): US$ 32.1 billions
- Selected country commitments and key program objectives (entries preserve text and numeric values exactly):
  - Honduras (September 2023) — 822: New Program: The authorities’ economic program supported by a Fund arrangement seeks to preserve macroeconomic stability and begin to address these challenges to foster more robust and inclusive growth. The program will also support the authorities’ efforts to build a well-targeted and wide-reaching social safety net to reach the most vulnerable groups. the program also aims to support the authorities’ efforts to build resilience to climate change.
  - Burkina Faso (September 2023) — 302: New Program: Burkina Faso faces protracted balance of payments problems, reflecting large development needs and the impact of shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, adverse weather conditions, deteriorating domestic security, the food insecurity crisis, and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine. The ECF will help create fiscal space for priority spending, strengthen resilience to shocks while reducing poverty, and bolster fiscal discipline, transparency and governance.
  - Burundi (July 2023) — 271: New Program: Burundi faces a widening current account deficit and low foreign reserves, large development needs, and macroeconomic challenges triggered by spillovers from the war in Ukraine, domestic climate shocks and livestock sanitary crisis. Higher spending needs, including on fertilizers, social programs, and vaccines have raised fiscal financing needs. The 38-month arrangement aims to address Burundi’s protracted external imbalances and strengthen inclusive economic growth and resilience, while being attuned to reducing fragility and tackling poverty and inequality.
  - Pakistan (July 2023) — 3,019: New Program: Pakistan’s economy was buffeted by significant shocks over the past year. The severe impact of the floods, the commodity shock from the war in Ukraine, and the tightening of external and domestic financing conditions together with policy backsliding aggravated economic conditions and halted the post-pandemic recovery. Policies under the new program aim to support the authorities’ immediate efforts to stabilize the economy and rebuild buffers.
  - Kenya (July 2023) — 551: Program Augmentation: The authorities are facing several near-term issues related to the high cost of living; exchange rate pressures; difficulties in mobilizing budgeted resources—including due to worsened outlook for external commercial financing since the 4th EFF/ECF reviews and underperformance in revenue collection. As part of a comprehensive strategy to address challenges posed by continued disruptions in global markets and untested market access for over a year, the authorities are requesting augmentation of access under the EFF/ECF arrangements, supported by more robust and mutually reinforcing policies to achieve the program’s objectives and underpin market confidence.
  - Central African Republic (April. 2023) — 190: New Program: The Central African Republic has been affected by a confluence of shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic, internal security upheavals, and Russia’s war in Ukraine. As a result, its humanitarian needs have spiked, and food insecurity has continued to deteriorate with up to 3 million inhabitants affected. The ECF arrangement will help free up fiscal space and catalyze donor support for essential public services, as well as provide a framework for implementing domestic reforms.
  - Ukraine (March 2023) — 15,600: New Program: The overarching goals of the authorities’ program are to sustain economic and financial stability at a time of exceptionally high uncertainty, restore debt sustainability on a forward-looking basis in both a baseline and downside scenario, and promote reforms that support Ukraine’s recovery on the path toward EU accession in the post-war period.
  - Sri Lanka (March 2023) — 3,062: New Program: Sri Lanka has been hit hard by a catastrophic economic and humanitarian crisis. The EFF-supported program aims to restore Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, mitigate the economic impact of the crisis on the poor and vulnerable by strengthening social safety nets, safeguard financial sector stability, and strengthen governance and growth potential.
  - Bangladesh (January 2023) — 3,300: New Program: The robust economic recovery from the pandemic has been interrupted by Russia’s war in Ukraine, leading to a sharp widening of the current account deficit, depreciation of the Taka, and a decline in reserves. The ECF/EFF arrangements will help preserve macroeconomic stability and prevent disruptive adjustments to protect the vulnerable while laying the foundations for strong, inclusive, and environmentally sustainable growth.
  - Mauritania (January 2023) — 86: New Program: A confluence of shocks, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and regional tensions, have reverted the trend accumulation of reserves in 2022 and narrowed the space for policy intervention, while surging international commodity prices have led to inflationary pressures and food insecurity. Mauritania’s program supported by the IMF arrangement aims to preserve macroeconomic stability, strengthen the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, consolidate the foundations for sustainable and inclusive growth, and reduce poverty.
  - The Gambia (December 2022) — 21: Program Augmentation: Balance-of-payments financing needs are significant, with a wide current account deficit stemming from the exogenous shocks. Forex shortages are also causing international reserves to decline. The augmentation aims to help meet the urgent financing gap in 2022 while maintaining adequate forex reserves to prepare for the large increase in debt service obligations from 2025 after the expiration of the debt rescheduling period.
  - Kenya (December 2022) — 216: Program Augmentation: The multi-season drought has worsened food insecurity for vulnerable populations in arid and semiarid regions and has kept food prices elevated. The augmentation aims to ease pressures on official foreign exchange reserves and ensure continuity in budget financing, including to respond to the ongoing drought and food security needs.
  - Pakistan (September 2022) — 936: Program Augmentation: The domestic and external imbalances reflect large fiscal policy slippages, a delayed monetary response to inflationary pressures, and high food and fuel prices as a consequence of the war in Ukraine. The augmentation intends to help guide policy implementation in the face of persisting macroeconomic vulnerabilities as well as external and domestic risks.
  - Zambia (August 2022) — 1,272: New Program: Zambia has been dealing with the legacy of years of economic mismanagement, with an especially inefficient public investment drive. Growth has been too low to reduce rates of poverty, inequality, and malnutrition that are among the highest in the world. The ECF-supported program seeks to help reestablish sustainability through fiscal adjustment and debt restructuring, create fiscal space for social spending to cushion the burden of adjustment, and strengthen economic governance and public financial management.
  - Benin (July 2022) — 637: New Program: Benin faces significant headwinds from a deteriorating security situation at its northern borders, pandemic-induced scars, and a higher cost of living amid the war in Ukraine, which could affect hard-won macroeconomic gains and cause hardship. The program seeks to help address pressing financing needs (related to security, COVID-19 scars, and the war in Ukraine), support implementation of the national development plan centered on achieving sustainable development goals, and catalyze donor support.
  - Tanzania (July 2022) — 1,046: New Program: The 40-month financing package will assist the economic recovery and address the spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, help preserve macroeconomic stability, and support structural reforms toward sustainable and inclusive growth, drawing on the government’s priorities.
  - Cabo Verde (June 2022) — 60: New Program: Cabo Verde’s economy has faced significant challenges associated with the lingering effects of the global pandemic, as well as rising food and fuel prices because of the war in Ukraine and the impact of the ongoing five-year drought. The financing package will help mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the spillover effects of the war in Ukraine, reduce the fiscal deficit and preserve debt sustainability, protect vulnerable groups, and support a reform agenda that leads to higher and more inclusive growth.
  - Mozambique (May 2022) — 455: New Program: Mozambique has been hit by a series of severe shocks that risk intensifying vulnerabilities and worsening socioeconomic conditions, including a growing food security crisis in the north that has left up to 900,000 people at risk. The three-year arrangement will help support the economic recovery and policies to reduce public debt and financing vulnerabilities, thus creating space for priority investments in human capital, climate adaptation, and infrastructure while supporting the recovery from COVID-19. It will also alleviate constraints on addressing the humanitarian and security crisis in the north.
  - Moldova (May 2022) — 260: Program Augmentation: Spillovers from the war in Ukraine are affecting the Moldovan economy through a variety of channels, including a spike in energy prices, trade disruptions, adverse confidence effects and the indirect impact of sanctions.

### IMF Emergency Lending Support through the Food Shock Window (Table 2)
- Total disbursements (listed as Total): US$ 1.8 billions
- Country disbursements and key objectives (entries preserve text and numeric values exactly):
  - Burkina Faso (March 2023) — 80.9: Food access for poor households deteriorated significantly, and at present, about 3.4 million Burkinabés (out of a population of 21.5 million) experience food crisis. The authorities committed to use the disbursed resources under the Food Shock Window to provide urgent financial and direct food support to the most vulnerable households, including through the provision of well-targeted cash transfers and the distribution of free food as well as sales of cereals at subsidized prices. Furthermore, they committed to use the disbursed resources to improve clean water supply and distribution and to sell key agricultural inputs such as fertilizers at subsidized prices. Finally, they also committed to gradually lift temporary food-related export restrictions.
  - South Sudan (March 2023) — 113.8: About two-thirds of South Sudan’s population is experiencing severe food insecurity, the highest level since the country’s independence. This is a result of multiple compounding factors, including severe multiyear floods due to climate shocks, intercommunal violence in parts of the country, and the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine that is contributing to high global food and fuel prices. The disbursement designated for budget support will enable the authorities to avoid a premature fiscal contraction and to allocate immediately US$15 million to the WFP and US$5 million to the International Organization for Migration to bolster their humanitarian operations and to help address food insecurity in South Sudan during 2023. The remainder will be used predominantly to finance education spending.
  - Haiti (January 2023) — 110.6: Haiti has been hit hard by the global food price shock. In September 2022, food inflation reached 44 percent, with rice inflation accelerating to nearly 70 percent. With more than half of the population already below the poverty line, Haiti faces a dire humanitarian crisis. Food Shock Window support will help address urgent balance of payment needs attributable to acute food insecurity and higher food import costs. The authorities will use emergency financing to support spending allocated in the budget for mitigating the impact of the food price shock on the population. Measures, among others, include increasing cash transfers and food rations for poor households, beginning school feeding programs and providing hot meals for vulnerable households and community restaurants, and waiving school fees.
  - Guinea (December 2022) — 71.4: Guinea faces chronic food insecurity, but the global price shock exacerbated difficulties. The WFP estimates that 0.7 million people, 6 percent of the population excluding Conakry, are affected by acute food insecurity. Emergency financing support will help address urgent balance-of-payment needs and mitigate the food shock. About 30 percent of the resources will be used for direct in-kind food distribution, managed by the WFP. About 40 percent would be used for cash transfers, and the rest would help import fertilizers.
  - Malawi (November 2022) — 91.1: Food insecurity in Malawi has increased dramatically under the impact of multiple tropical storms, below-average crop production, and increasing prices for food and agricultural inputs such as fertilizer and seeds. As a result of these factors, about 20 percent of the population is projected to be acutely food insecure during the upcoming 2022–23 lean season (October 2022–March 2023), almost 50 percent up from 2021. Emergency financing support will help address urgent balance-of-payment needs and mitigate the food shock, including by strengthening cash transfer programs for vulnerable households.
  - Ukraine (October 2022) — 1,290.1: The Ukrainian authorities requested financial assistance under the new Food Shock Window of the Rapid Financing Instrument in the context of persistent urgent balance-of-payment needs, including due to a large shortfall in cereal exports. The purchase under the Rapid Financial Instrument has provided critical support to mitigate the serious consequences of this shock to the export base and has played a catalytic role for financing from other partners to close the external financing gap.

### Annex: Countries vulnerable to food and fertilizer price increases (selected entries and indicators)
- Annex lists countries identified as Major Food Crisis/Hunger Hotspot and Terms-of-Trade Shock impacts for 2023 and 2024. Selected entries (preserve numeric values exactly):
  - Afghanistan — Yes ... ...
  - Angola — Yes 0.03 0.03
  - Bangladesh — Yes 0.05 -0.01
  - Burkina Faso — Yes 0.03 0.01
  - Burundi — Yes 0.05 0.04
  - Gambia, The — No 0.34 0.30
  - Guinea — Yes 0.16 0.14
  - Haiti — Yes 0.05 0.04
  - Honduras — Yes 0.19 0.12
  - Madagascar — Yes 0.15 0.13
  - Malawi — Yes -0.10 -0.22
  - Mozambique — Yes 0.14 0.11
  - Pakistan — Yes -0.08 ...
  - Sierra Leone — Yes 0.37 0.34
  - Ukraine — Yes -0.27 ...
  - Yemen — Yes 0.16 0.14
  - Zambia — Yes -0.07 -0.10
  - Zimbabwe — Yes 0.33 0.18
- Notes from annex:
  - Sources: WEO, UN Comtrade, USDA, World Bank and IMF Staff calculations.
  - 1/ As determined by the FSIN GRFC 2023 report and FAO-WFP Hunger Hotspots June–November 2023 Outlook.
  - 2/ See IMF 2022a for details on methodology and commodities analyzed. Impacts equal to or above 0.3 percent of GDP are in red, those below are in green.

*Source: insea2023002-s001 - Box 2. Recent Activities of the Food and Agriculture Organization, World Food Programme, World Bank Group, and World Trade Organization to Combat the Global Food Crisis (concluded).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/imf-notes/2023/english/insea2023002-s001.pdf_