## ppea2020022

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### Executive summary — Determination of global pandemic and CCRT response
- The global COVID-19 pandemic meets the criteria for a Qualifying Public Health Disaster (QPHD) under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) Window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT).
- Executive Board alternative QPHD test approved March 26 allows determination where a life-threatening global pandemic inflicts severe economic disruption across the Fund’s membership and creates balance of payments needs warranting substantial additional grant support and debt service relief.
- WHO assessments guide the QPHD determination:
  - March 11, 2020: WHO Director General declared COVID-19 a global pandemic; WHO reported 118,000 cases in 114 countries.
  - As of April 7, 2020: about 1.3 million reported cases in 173 member countries, with about 73,000 confirmed deaths.
- As of April 7, 2020, the Fund received about 70 requests for urgent balance of payments support through the RCF, RFI, or augmentations of existing Fund arrangements.
- Staff assesses balance of payments needs are of an exceptional scale, warranting substantial additional grant support and debt service relief for CCRT-eligible countries.

### Scope of CCRT relief, eligibility, and schedule
- Up to 29 IMF member countries can potentially qualify for CCRT debt service relief in connection with COVID-19; eligibility criteria include:
  - Per capita income below the IDA operational threshold (or twice that level for small states).
  - Debt outstanding to the Fund.
  - Not already covered by HIPC debt relief.
- Initial commitment: debt relief committed for a period of six months from April 14, 2020 (initial period runs April 14 through October 13, 2020) to allow immediate relief to all qualifying countries.
- Further tranches: committed only once sufficient resources secured, up to a cap of two years from the date of the Board determination that a global pandemic exists.
- Executive Board qualification for CCRT relief requires two determinations for each country:
  1. The country is experiencing an exceptional balance of payments need arising from the QPHD and the country’s response to it.
  2. The macroeconomic policy framework in a letter of intent is appropriate to address the balance of payments needs.
- A CCRT-eligible country that has qualified for relief under the CC window would not need to be requalified or re-apply for future tranches.

### Funding requirements and status of the CCRT
- Resource requirements:
  - Executive Board qualification of all 29 CCRT-eligible members would require about SDR 183 million in grant support to cover the first six months of debt service relief.
  - About SDR 680 million in grant resources would be needed to cover all CCRT-eligible debt service to the Fund falling due in the full two-year period (April 14, 2020 - April 13, 2022).
- Prior to the pandemic, the CCRT had only SDR 150 million in available financial resources for both the natural disaster and health crises windows and was severely underfunded.
- IMF launched an urgent fundraising effort to raise SDR 1 billion in new grants for the CCRT, with option for contingent contributions.
- Recent contributions and pledges cited:
  - United Kingdom commitment: a total of £150 million (SDR 136 million), half disbursed on April 8, 2020, and the other half contingent on need in September 2020.
  - Japan: US$100 million in grant support immediately available for debt service relief.
  - People's Republic of China and the Netherlands pledged additional grants; other IMF members indicated consideration of further contributions.
- Based on disbursements and pledges, staff recommends immediate approval of the first tranche of debt service relief for all qualifying members covering April 14 through October 13, 2020.

### Technical modifications proposed to the CCRT instrument
- Clarify timing of transfer of interest and charges to CCRT umbrella subaccounts:
  - Because interest and charges on eligible debt covered by CCRT grants are not known until the due date, grants to cover such interest and charges would be transferred to the CCRT umbrella subaccounts upon their due date and effective payment on the same day, rather than immediately as is done for repayments and repurchases.
- Corresponding change to the definition of eligible debt proposed.

### Requests and workflow for assistance under the CCRT
- Twenty-five countries are requesting CCRT grant assistance under the CC Window at this juncture; a further four countries are expected to request assistance in the coming weeks.
- For each requesting country:
  - Authorities submitted a letter of intent requesting CCRT assistance and outlining policy responses.
  - Staff provided an assessment of exceptional balance of payments need and appropriateness of macroeconomic policy response.
  - Each case is documented in separate attachments to the paper.
- Future tranches and requalification:
  - Pending available resources, the Executive Board will decide on possible new tranches toward end of initial six-month period.
  - Future tranches expected to be approved in six-monthly intervals, up to two years, subject to resource availability and consideration of other potentially qualifying members.
  - Future Executive Board decisions would be based on an umbrella Board paper with availability of CCRT resources and brief updates (1–2 pages) for each country.

### Key aggregate figures and tabled amounts (exact)
- CCRT-eligible country sample entries (GNI (USD per Capita, 2018) and Quota (SDR million)):
  - Afghanistan: 550; 324
  - Benin: 870; 124
  - Burkina Faso: 660; 120
  - Burundi: 280; 154
  - Central African Republic: 480; 111
  - Comoros: 1,320; 18
  - Congo, Democratic Republic of: 490; 1,066
  - Djibouti: 2,180; 32
  - Ethiopia: 790; 301
  - Guinea: 830; 214
  - Madagascar: 440; 244
  - Malawi: 360; 139
  - Mozambique: 440; 227
  - Nepal: 960; 157
  - Rwanda: 780; 160
  - São Tomé and Príncipe: 1,890; 15
  - Solomon Islands: 2,000; 21
  - Tajikistan: 1,010; 174
  - Tanzania: 1,020; 398
  - Yemen, Republic of: 960; 487
  - Total Quota (Table 1): ...; 6,623
  - Note: Small states eligible if GNI per capita is twice the prevailing IDA operational threshold.
- Eligible debt service for relief from the CCRT (Table 2, In SDR):
  - Total for 6 months (April 14-Oct 13, 2020): 183,114,769
  - Total for 24 months (April 14, 2020 - April 13, 2022): 679,385,892
- Selected country eligible amounts (6 months / 24 months, in SDR):
  - Afghanistan: 2,400,000 / 10,050,000
  - Benin: 7,428,000 / 23,343,000
  - Burkina Faso: 8,737,400 / 39,544,400
  - Burundi 1/: 5,480,000 / 17,960,000
  - Congo, D. R.: 14,847,900 / 29,695,800
  - Ethiopia 1/ 2/: 8,556,794 / 13,996,835
  - Guinea: 16,371,000 / 69,156,000
  - Liberia: 11,632,800 / 45,343,600
  - Mozambique: 10,886,667 / 39,286,668
  - Rwanda: 8,010,000 / 50,062,500
  - Sierra Leone: 13,364,500 / 58,249,000
  - Tanzania 1/: 10,277,889 / 18,566,777
  - Yemen: 14,441,500 / 47,329,000
  - Notes:
    - 1/ The request from these four countries is expected in coming weeks.
    - 2/ Eligible debt service includes estimates for the GRA charges.

### Country Annex Highlights — representative country summaries and staff views
- Afghanistan (Annex 1.A):
  - Economic impact: Output expected to contract by 3 percent in 2020 (revised from 3.5 percent growth); balance of payments need estimated at about $800 million (about 4.3 percent of GDP).
  - Fiscal measures: plan to allow fiscal deficit to rise to 4 percent of GDP in 2020; authorities allocated Af 1.9 billion for emergency health spending; health outlays grow by some 57 percent (or 0.55 percent of GDP) in 2020.
  - IMF/CCRT: Staff supports CCRT relief; debt service requested SDR 2,400,000 for April 14–Oct 13, 2020 and SDR 10,050,000 for 24 months from April 14, 2020.
  - Key projections (selected exact figures): Real GDP growth 2020 (proj.): -3.0; Nominal GDP 2020 (proj.): 18.9 (billion U.S. dollars); Consumer prices 2020 (proj.): 4.7 (period average).
- Benin (Annex 2.A):
  - Economic impact: 2020 real GDP growth estimated range 2.0 to 4.5 percent (pre-COVID forecast 6.7 percent); BoP needs due to COVID-19 at least 1.0 percent of GDP, combined with Nigeria border closure at least 1.7 percent of GDP.
  - Fiscal measures: contemplating expenditure package CFA 60 billion (0.7 percent of GDP); mobilized US$ 16 million (0.1 percent of GDP) from World Bank.
  - IMF/CCRT: Staff supports CCRT relief; GNI per capita US$870; debt service eligible SDR 7,428,000 (initial six months) and SDR 23,343,000 (24 months).
- Burkina Faso (Annex 3.A):
  - Economic impact: 2020 growth projected 2.0 (down ~4 percentage points); BoP needs estimated 1.9 percent of GDP.
  - Fiscal: health and related outlays 1.0 percent of GDP; fall-off in domestic revenues 2.1 percent of GDP.
  - IMF/CCRT: Staff supports CCRT relief; debt service SDR 8,737,400 (initial six months) and SDR 39,544,400 (24 months).
- Central African Republic (Annex 4.A):
  - Economic impact: expected 2020 growth 1.0 (down from 5 percent); pandemic response cost ~2 percent of GDP; estimated fiscal impact ~3¾ percent of GDP; external financing needs ~3½ percent of GDP.
  - IMF/CCRT: Staff supports CCRT relief; debt service SDR 2.96 million (initial six months) and SDR 12.98 million (24 months).
- Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and regional examples:
  - DRC: projected real GDP 2020 -2.2 percent; fiscal cost of pandemic in 2020 estimated 1.1 percent of GDP; BOP financing gap estimated US$637 million (1.3 percent of GDP); eligible debt service SDR 14,847,900 (initial period) and SDR 29,695,800 (24 months); staff supports CCRT relief; GNI per capita US$490.
  - The Gambia: immediate gross fiscal impact estimated about 3.5 percent of GDP; emerging BoP need about US$40 million (2 percent of GDP); approved amount 35.0 million (56.3 percent of quota) was approved on March 23, 2020; requested RCF disbursement SDR 15.55 million (25 percent of quota); eligible CCRT debt service SDR 2.10 million (initial six months) and SDR 7.93 million (24 months); staff supports CCRT relief.
- Haiti (Annex 11.A):
  - Economic impact: remittances drop estimated US$557 million; textile exports decline about US$178 million (2.0 percent of GDP); real GDP growth forecast FY2020 -4.0 percent; gross fiscal financing needs expected to reach 6.4 percent of GDP.
  - IMF/CCRT: Staff supports CCRT relief; debt service SDR 4.1 million (initial six months) and SDR 15.2 million (24 months).
- Liberia (Annex 12.A):
  - Economic impact: 2020 real GDP projected -2.5 percent; emerging BoP need projected US$161 million (5.5 percent of GDP and 51 percent of end-2019 gross official external reserves).
  - IMF/CCRT: Staff supports CCRT relief; eligible debt service SDR 11.6328 million (initial period) and SDR 45.3436 million (24 months).
- Madagascar (Annex 13.B):
  - Prior to RCF disbursement, balance of payments need estimated SDR194 million (1.8 percent of GDP); RCF disbursement SDR 122.2 million (50 percent of quota) approved April 3, 2020.
  - Authorities request CCRT grant assistance to cover IMF debt service in the 24-month period.
- Malawi, Mali, Niger, Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, São Tomé and Príncipe, Tajikistan, Togo (representative entries):
  - Each country submitted Letters of Intent documenting:
    - projected declines in real growth (country-specific),
    - estimated fiscal impacts (percent of GDP),
    - estimated balance of payments financing gaps (US$ and percent of GDP or months of reserves),
    - country-specific requests for CCRT grant assistance to cover IMF debt service falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022 (or the initial six-month tranche April 14–Oct 13, 2020), and
    - staff support for CCRT relief where eligibility and exceptional BOP needs are met.
  - Selected exact CCRT-eligible and program numbers appear in each annex (e.g., Nepal eligible SDR 2.85 million for April 14–Oct 13, 2020; Nepal 24-month eligible SDR 13.55 million; Rwanda initial SDR 8.0 million and 24-month SDR 50.0625 million; Togo initial SDR 3.74 million and 24-month SDR 6.93 million).

### Staff recommendations and operational notes
- Staff recommends immediate approval of the first tranche of debt service relief for all qualifying members covering the six months from April 14 through October 13, 2020, based on available disbursements and pledges.
- Future tranches to be approved subject to availability of CCRT resources; a qualifying country need not reapply for subsequent tranches.
- Executive Board decisions on future tranches to be informed by an umbrella Board paper with resource availability and brief country updates (1–2 pages).
- Technical instrument amendment to align transfer timing for interest and charges with due-date payment practice proposed.

*Source: Executive Summary, Annexes, and Letters of Intent (April 8, 2020) as provided in the supplied content unit.*

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### DETERMINATION OF GLOBAL PANDEMIC
- The global COVID-19 pandemic meets the criteria for a Qualifying Public Health Disaster (QPHD) under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) Window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT).
- The Executive Board approved an alternative QPHD test on March 26 that allows determination where a life-threatening global pandemic is inflicting severe economic disruption across the Fund’s membership and creating balance of payments needs on such a scale as to warrant a concerted international effort to support the poorest and most vulnerable countries through substantial additional grant support and debt service relief.
- The Fund will be guided by assessments of the World Health Organization (WHO) in making the QPHD determination.
- WHO declarations and case counts cited:
  - March 11, 2020: Director General of the WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic; WHO reported 118,000 cases in 114 countries.
  - As of April 7, 2020: about 1.3 million reported cases in 173 member countries, with about 73,000 confirmed deaths.
- As of April 7, 2020, the Fund received about 70 requests for urgent balance of payments support through the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI), or augmentations of existing Fund arrangements.
- Staff assesses that the balance of payments needs are of an exceptional scale, warranting substantial additional grant support and debt service relief for CCRT-eligible countries.

### SCOPE OF CCRT RELIEF AND ELIGIBILITY
- Up to 29 IMF member countries can potentially qualify for CCRT debt service relief in connection with COVID-19; eligibility criteria include:
  - Per capita income below the IDA operational threshold (or twice that level for small states).
  - Debt outstanding to the Fund.
  - Not already covered by HIPC debt relief.
- Initial commitment: debt relief is committed for a period of six months from April 14, 2020, to allow immediate relief to all qualifying countries.
- Further tranches: committed only once sufficient resources have been secured, up to a cap of two years from the date of the Board determination that a global pandemic exists.
- Resource requirements:
  - Executive Board qualification of all 29 CCRT-eligible members would require about SDR 183 million in grant support to cover the first six months of debt service relief.
  - About SDR 680 million in grant resources would be needed to cover all CCRT-eligible debt service to the Fund falling due in the full two-year period.

### FUNDING STATUS OF THE CCRT
- Prior to the pandemic, the CCRT had only SDR 150 million in available financial resources for both the natural disaster and health crises windows and was severely underfunded.
- The IMF launched an urgent fundraising effort to raise SDR 1 billion in new grants for the CCRT, with the option for contingent contributions.
- Recent contributions and pledges cited:
  - United Kingdom commitment: a total of £150 million (SDR 136 million), half disbursed on April 8, 2020, and the other half contingent on need in September 2020.
  - Japan: US$100 million in grant support immediately available for debt service relief.
  - People’s Republic of China and the Netherlands: pledged additional grants.
  - Other IMF members: indicated consideration of further contributions.
- Based on disbursements and pledges, staff recommends immediate approval of the first tranche of debt service relief for all qualifying members covering the six months from April 14 through October 13, 2020.

### REQUESTS FOR ASSISTANCE UNDER THE CCRT
- Twenty-five countries are requesting CCRT grant assistance under the CC Window at this juncture; a further four countries are expected to request assistance in the coming weeks.
- Executive Board qualification for CCRT relief requires two determinations:
  1. The country is experiencing an exceptional balance of payments need arising from the QPHD and the country’s response to it, based on available information.
  2. The macroeconomic policy framework in a letter of intent is appropriate to address the balance of payments needs created by the global pandemic.
- Staff considers these conditions met for the CCRT-eligible members that have requested assistance. For each requesting country:
  - Authorities submitted a letter of intent requesting CCRT assistance and outlining policy responses.
  - Staff provided an assessment of exceptional balance of payments need and appropriateness of macroeconomic policy response.
  - Each case is documented in 25 separate attachments to the paper.
- Future tranches and requalification:
  - Pending available resources, the Executive Board will decide on possible new tranches toward the end of the initial six-month period.
  - Future tranches expected to be approved in six-monthly intervals, up to a cap of two years, subject to resource availability and consideration of other potentially qualifying members.
  - A CCRT-eligible country that has qualified for relief under the CC window would not need to be requalified or re-apply for future tranches.
  - Future Executive Board decisions would be based on an umbrella Board paper with availability of CCRT resources and brief updates (1–2 pages) for each country.

### TECHNICAL MODIFICATIONS TO THE CCRT DECISION
- Staff proposes technical amendments to the CCRT instrument to clarify timing of transfer of interest and charges to CCRT umbrella subaccounts.
- Because interest and charges on eligible debt covered by CCRT grants are not known until the due date, it is proposed that grants to cover such interest and charges be transferred to the CCRT umbrella subaccounts upon their due date and effective payment on the same day, rather than immediately as is done for repayments and repurchases.
- A corresponding change is made to the definition of eligible debt.

### KEY STATISTICS AND TABLED AMOUNTS
- CCRT-eligible countries (selected entries from Table 1, GNI (USD per Capita, 2018) and Quota (SDR million)):
  - Afghanistan: 550; 324
  - Benin: 870; 124
  - Burkina Faso: 660; 120
  - Burundi: 280; 154
  - Central African Republic: 480; 111
  - Comoros: 1,320; 18
  - Congo, Democratic Republic of: 490; 1,066
  - Djibouti: 2,180; 32
  - Ethiopia: 790; 301
  - Guinea: 830; 214
  - Madagascar: 440; 244
  - Malawi: 360; 139
  - Mozambique: 440; 227
  - Nepal: 960; 157
  - Rwanda: 780; 160
  - São Tomé and Príncipe: 1,890; 15
  - Solomon Islands: 2,000; 21
  - Tajikistan: 1,010; 174
  - Tanzania: 1,020; 398
  - Yemen, Republic of: 960; 487
  - Total Quota (Table 1): ...; 6,623
  - Note: Small states eligible if GNI per capita is twice the prevailing IDA operational threshold.
- Eligible debt service for relief from the CCRT (Table 2, In SDR):
  - Total for 6 months (April 14-Oct 13, 2020): 183,114,769
  - Total for 24 months (April 14, 2020 - April 13, 2022): 679,385,892
  - Selected country amounts (6 months / 24 months):
    - Afghanistan: 2,400,000 / 10,050,000
    - Benin: 7,428,000 / 23,343,000
    - Burkina Faso: 8,737,400 / 39,544,400
    - Burundi 1/: 5,480,000 / 17,960,000
    - Congo, D. R.: 14,847,900 / 29,695,800
    - Ethiopia 1/ 2/: 8,556,794 / 13,996,835
    - Guinea: 16,371,000 / 69,156,000
    - Liberia: 11,632,800 / 45,343,600
    - Mozambique: 10,886,667 / 39,286,668
    - Rwanda: 8,010,000 / 50,062,500
    - Sierra Leone: 13,364,500 / 58,249,000
    - Tanzania 1/: 10,277,889 / 18,566,777
    - Yemen: 14,441,500 / 47,329,000
  - Notes from Table 2:
    - 1/ The request from these four countries is expected in coming weeks.
    - 2/ Eligible debt service includes estimates for the GRA charges.

_Executive Summary, April 8, 2020._

### Annex 1.A. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Staff Appraisal—

### Annex 1.A. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Economic impact
- Afghanistan faces an exceptional balance of payments need from the impact of COVID-19 and has requested support under the Catastrophe Containment window of the CCRT.
- Vulnerabilities and shocks:
  - Large influx of Afghan migrants from neighboring countries, weak capacity in the context of fragility, and domestic conflict increase vulnerability to the pandemic.
  - Intermittent closures of the border with Pakistan have led to a significant drop in agricultural exports and disrupted imports, causing prices of essential goods to spike.
  - Inflows of remittances are expected to halve due to the return of Afghan workers from host countries, many of which are oil exporters whose economic prospects have weakened due to the pandemic and the sharp drop in oil prices.
  - Drastic social distancing measures, including placing Kabul and other large cities under lockdown, have inhibited domestic activity.
- Macro outcomes and projections:
  - Output is expected to contract by 3 percent in 2020, compared to 3.5 percent growth projected earlier.
  - The fiscal position is expected to worsen as domestic revenue plummets while the budget takes on large pandemic-related expenditure, including 0.55 percent of GDP for health.
  - The shock has opened a large balance of payment need, estimated at about $800 million (about 4.3 percent of GDP).

### Macroeconomic policies and authorities' response
- Fiscal:
  - Authorities are mobilizing efforts and financial resources, including from donors, to mitigate the economic fallout.
  - To ensure funding for the health sector and social relief, authorities are postponing non-priority spending, including some non-health capital projects.
  - Planning to allow the fiscal deficit to rise to 4 percent of GDP in 2020; committed to bring the deficit to within 1 percent of GDP over the next two years.
  - Authorities allocated Af 1.9 billion for emergency health spending; outlays for the health sector will grow by some 57 percent (or 0.55 percent of GDP) over the course of 2020.
  - Plan to roll out a social protection package to provide temporary and targeted relief and are assessing fiscal resources to support badly affected sectors.
- Monetary and financial sector:
  - Central bank will continue to focus on price stability and will limit foreign exchange interventions to addressing disorderly market conditions.
  - Central Bank stands ready to support financial sector resiliency, ensure adequate liquidity in banks, and, when justified, exercise forbearance as lenders are encouraged to forbear or reschedule loan repayments by otherwise solvent borrowers.
  - Central Bank sees monetary tightening as premature, but will use monetary policy measures and auctions of foreign exchange and capital notes to support price stability; will allow the exchange rate to adjust while limiting interventions to prevent disorderly market conditions.
  - Central Bank ready to provide liquidity to banks through its facilities in a predictable and transparent manner; ready to exercise forbearance on capital to prevent defaults by viable borrowers.
  - Authorities will ensure that the level of international reserves remains commensurate to elevated risks, including deeper-than-expected aid cuts over the medium term.

### IMF program status and financing requests
- IMF program status:
  - The sixth and final review under the ECF arrangement was concluded in December 2019.
  - Afghanistan requested emergency financing under the RCF in March 2020.
- CCRT request and justification:
  - Staff supports the authorities' request for debt relief under the CCRT.
  - With GNI per capita of $550, Afghanistan meets the CCRT income threshold of $1,175.
  - Staff assesses Afghanistan is facing an exceptional BOP need stemming from the impact of COVID-19, and the authorities are committed to pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies.
- Debt-service relief requested:
  - Afghanistan has debt service of SDR 2.4 million falling due in the initial period of debt service relief from April 14 to October 13, 2020.
  - The debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 (the maximum potential period of debt service relief, subject to availability of resources and decisions of the Executive Board) amounts to SDR 10.1 million.
  - Letter of Intent (April 8, 2020) specifies debt service of SDR 2,400,000 falling due from April 14 to October 13, 2020, and SDR 10,050,000 falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020.

### Key projections and tables (selected figures)
- Real GDP growth:
  - 2019: 3.0
  - 2020 (proj.): -3.0
  - 2021–2025 (proj.): 4.5, 4.5, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0
- Nominal GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars):
  - 2019: 19.6
  - 2020 (proj.): 18.9
  - 2021–2025 (proj.): 19.8, 21.8, 24.1, 26.5, 28.5
- Consumer prices (period average):
  - 2019: 2.3
  - 2020 (proj.): 4.7
  - 2021–2025 (proj.): 4.5, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0
- Fiscal (central government, in percent of GDP):
  - Domestic revenues and grants: 2019: 26.1; 2020 (proj.): 24.0; 2021–2025: 25.1, 26.2, 27.1, 26.6, 26.4
  - Domestic revenues: 2019: 13.6; 2020 (proj.): 9.4; 2021–2025: 11.8, 13.8, 15.4, 15.6, 15.9
  - Expenditures: 2019: 27.1; 2020 (proj.): 28.0; 2021–2025: 27.1, 27.2, 27.6, 27.1, 26.9
  - Overall balance (including grants): 2019: -1.0; 2020 (proj.): -4.0; 2021–2025: -2.0, -1.0, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
- External sector (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - Exports of goods: 2019: 853; 2020 (proj.): 641; 2021–2025: 831, 940, 1,039, 1,156, 1,273
  - Imports of goods: 2019: 6,381; 2020 (proj.): 6,408; 2021–2025: 6,506, 6,691, 6,869, 7,072, 7,253
  - Gross international reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2019: 8,573; 2020 (proj.): 8,179; 2021–2025: 8,074, 7,976, 7,876, 7,776, 7,682
  - Import coverage of reserves (months): 2019: 13.2; 2020 (proj.): 12.4; 2021–2025: 11.8, 11.3, 10.8, 10.4, 10.1
- Balance of payments (selected, in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - Current account (including official transfers): 2019: 1,681; 2020 (proj.): 923; 2021–2025: 1,142, 897, 785, 659, 603
  - Excluding official grants: 2019: -5,644; 2020 (proj.): -6,299; 2021–2025: -6,003, -6,121, -6,233, -6,358, -6,411
  - Overall balance: 2019: 296; 2020 (proj.): -821; 2021–2025: -105, -96, -95, -93, -85

### Staff view and authorization
- Staff supports CCRT debt relief for Afghanistan based on:
  - Afghanistan meeting the CCRT income threshold (GNI per capita of $550 versus threshold of $1,175).
  - Assessment that Afghanistan faces an exceptional balance of payments need from COVID-19.
  - Authorities' commitment to pursue appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the economic fallout.
- The authorities authorized IMF publication of the Letter of Intent and related Board documents.

*Source: Annex 1.A. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Staff Appraisal— (CCRT Request), as provided in the supplied content.*

### Annex 2.A. Benin: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Annex 2.A. Benin: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Economic impact of COVID-19
- Real GDP growth for 2020 is estimated within the range from 2.0 to 4.5 percent, down from a pre-COVID-19 forecast of 6.7 percent.
- Preliminary fiscal estimates for 2020:
  - Overall fiscal deficit (commitment basis, including grants) of at least 3.5 percent of GDP—compared to 1.8 percent of GDP pre-COVID-19.
  - Contribution of COVID-19 to the higher fiscal deficit estimated at 1.0 percent of GDP:
    - 0.4 percent of GDP corresponds to the expected revenue shortfall.
    - 0.7 percent of GDP corresponds to additional health-related spending.
- Balance-of-payments (BoP) needs:
  - BoP need due to the COVID-19 shock is estimated at, at least, 1.0. percent of GDP.
  - Combined with the effect of the border closure with Nigeria, the total BoP needs are estimated at, at least, 1.7 percent of GDP.
- Health case incidence (as reported in the Letter of Intent as of April 2):
  - 13 cases reported in Benin, compared to 3 cases a week before.
  - The 13 identified cases have been in contact with more than 300 people.

### Macroeconomic policies and emergency measures
- Containment and border measures implemented:
  - For a two-week period starting on March 31, 2020, a cordon sanitaire around ten cities most exposed to the pandemic.
  - Since March 19, 2020: (i) significant limitation of transit of people across land borders; (ii) restriction of issuance of entry visas; (iii) systematic and compulsory quarantine of all people coming to Benin by air; (iv) suspension of all public gatherings including conferences, funerals, festivals, political rallies, sporting events, and religious activities.
- Fiscal response and financing:
  - Authorities are contemplating a larger expenditure package of CFA 60 billion (0.7 percent of GDP).
  - Mobilized US$ 16 million (0.1 percent of GDP) from the World Bank for acquiring necessary medical equipment.
  - Plan to increase public health expenditure by CFA 60 billion (0.7 percent of GDP) over the course of 2020 to:
    - purchase medical equipment (ventilators, protective masks, drugs);
    - build temporary retention areas for quarantined people;
    - purchase special medical ambulances and electric incinerators.
  - Expectation to suspend or sharply curtail non-essential outlays (non-health capital expenditure and non-health related purchases of goods and services), but still expect an increase in the primary budget deficit on the order of 1.0 percent of GDP due to COVID-19.
  - Authorities are reaching out to donors and international institutions to finance the CFA 60 billion package; remaining financing expected from domestic sources if additional donor support is insufficient.
- Regional monetary response (BCEAO):
  - Raising the liquidity made available to banks.
  - Ensuring refinancing rates remain close to the floor of the monetary policy corridor of 2.5 percent.
  - Expanding collateral to access central bank refinancing.
  - Setting up a framework with the banking system to support firms with repayment difficulties.

### IMF program status, staff appraisal, and policy intentions
- Existing arrangement:
  - Benin’s three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for SDR 111.42 million (about US$158.1 million or 90 percent of the country’s quota at the time of approval) was approved on April 7, 2017.
  - The forthcoming sixth review, to be conducted in April, will mark the end of the ECF arrangement.
  - Preliminary information suggests that all end-December 2019 quarterly performance criteria and structural benchmarks under review have been met.
- Authorities’ planned IMF requests:
  - At the time of the sixth and final review, authorities will request an augmentation of access equivalent to 50% of quota (SDR 62 million) to meet fiscal financing and related BoP needs arising from COVID-19 and the prolonged border closure with Nigeria.
  - Authorities are aware of the possibility of requesting an RCF disbursement if additional BOP needs arise after the program expires.
- Staff appraisal and eligibility for CCRT:
  - Staff supports Benin’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
  - Benin meets the income threshold with GNI per capita of US$870, below the threshold of US$1,175.
  - Staff assesses Benin faces exceptional BOP needs stemming from the impact of COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies.

### Debt-service obligations and CCRT request
- Upcoming IMF debt service in the initial six-month relief period (April 14, 2020 to October 13, 2020):
  - Debt service of SDR 7.4 million (CFA 6 billion) falling due in the initial period.
- Debt service over the 24 months from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022:
  - Amounts to SDR 23.3 million (CFA 18.8 billion).
- Detailed schedule (as of February 29, 2020): total IMF debt service eligible for relief over the 24-month period:
  - Total: SDR 23,343,000 (all eligible for CCR Debt Relief).
- Benin’s formal request (Letter of Intent dated April 2, 2020):
  - Requests grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the CCRT to cover debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022 or as much as is available from resources.
  - Intends to submit a request for augmentation under the ECF arrangement on the order of SDR 62 million (50 percent of quota).

### Key economic and BoP indicators (selected figures from projections)
- Real GDP growth: pre-crisis forecast 6.7 percent; 2020 estimated range 2.0 to 4.5 percent.
- Fiscal balances:
  - Pre-COVID-19 overall fiscal deficit (2019): 1.8 percent of GDP (pre-COVID-19 reference).
  - Projected overall fiscal deficit (2020): at least 3.5 percent of GDP.
  - COVID-19 contribution to fiscal deficit: 1.0 percent of GDP (0.4 percent revenue shortfall; 0.7 percent higher health spending).
- Balance of payments and external indicators:
  - BoP need due to COVID-19: at least 1.0. percent of GDP.
  - Total BoP needs including Nigeria border closure: at least 1.7 percent of GDP.
  - Memorandum items (projections shown in source tables):
    - International price of cotton (Cotlook "A" Index, U.S. cents a lb.) projected at 70.4 for multiple years in the projection horizon.
    - International price of oil (U.S. dollars a barrel) projections: 39.1 (2020), 40.3 (2021), 44.1 (2022), 46.9 (2023), 48.8 (2024), 50.1 (2025).
    - Nominal GDP (CFAF billion) projections: 8,770 (2020 EBS/19/398 Est.), 9,322 (2021 Proj.), 10,129 (2022 Proj.), 11,046 (2023 Proj.), 12,006 (2024 Proj.), 13,049 (2025 Proj.).

*Source: Annex 2.A. Benin: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request and Annex 2.B. Letter of Intent—CCRT Request (excerpts from the provided IMF document).*

### Annex 3.A. Burkina Faso: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Annex 3.A. Burkina Faso: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Summary and exceptional needs
- Burkina Faso faces exceptional balance of payments needs resulting from the impact of COVID-19 and has requested support under the Catastrophe Containment window of the CCRT.
- Real growth is projected to decline to 2 percent in 2020, about 4 percentage points lower than previously projected.
- Resulting balance-of-payments (BoP) needs are estimated at 1.9 percent of GDP.
- These macroeconomic projections are highly uncertain.

### Macroeconomic impact and key projections
- Real GDP growth:
  - 2018: 6.8
  - 2019: 6.0
  - 2020 (Proj.): 2.0
  - 2021 (Proj.): 5.8
  - 2022 (Proj.): 5.6
- Inflation / prices:
  - GDP deflator (2020 Proj.): 2.7
  - Consumer prices (annual average, 2020 Proj.): 3.2
- External sector and current account:
  - Current account (percent of GDP, 2020 Prel.): -4.3
  - Exports of goods (2020 Prel.): 2,242 (CFA francs)
  - Imports of goods (2020 Prel.): -2,136 (CFA francs)
- Public debt and fiscal indicators:
  - Overall fiscal balance, incl. grants (commitments) (2020 Prel.): -5.0 (percent of GDP)
  - Total public debt (2020 Prel.): 43.0 (percent of GDP)
  - Nominal GDP (CFAF billion, 2020 Prel.): 9,666
  - Nominal GDP per capita (US$, 2020 Prel.): 785

### Drivers of the shock and channels of impact
- Major sectors affected: agriculture, tourism, transport and mining (notably gold and cotton production and exports).
- External channels: disruptions in the global supply chain and transport networks leading to declines in production, exports and remittances.
- Fiscal pressures:
  - Health and related outlays: 1 percent of GDP
  - Fall-off in domestic revenues: 2.1 percent of GDP
  - Other mitigating measures: 0.7 percent of GDP
  - Combined impact on the budget around 3.0 percent of GDP (author estimate).
- Fiscal deficit impact: widening to 5.0 percent of GDP, compared to previous projection of 2.9 percent of GDP (at the time of the 3rd ECF review completed in December 2019).

### Macroeconomic policies and policy response
- Public-health and containment measures implemented: social distancing, nationwide curfew, closure of schools and universities, closure of terrestrial borders and main markets in major urban centers, cancellation of major public events, suspension of commercial flights, prohibition of interurban public transport, quarantine of affected cities.
- Economic support measures:
  - Support to health workers, frontline agents and impacted public sector employees as part of the national emergency response plan.
  - Tax relief for affected sectors, including lower rates for turnover-based taxes, delayed tax payments, waiving late payment penalties and accelerated depreciations for investment.
  - Plans to increase government outlays for the health sector by about 1.0 percent of GDP over 2020.
  - Increased expenditure on social protection for vulnerable workers and enhanced support to Internal Displaced Persons (IDPs) of near 800,000.
  - Suspension or curtailment of non-essential outlays (including non-health capital expenditure) to create budgetary space.
- Regional central bank (BCEAO) measures:
  - Raised liquidity at weekly and monthly auctions of March 23, allowing average refinancing rates to remain close to the floor of the monetary policy corridor of 2.5 percent.
  - Starting March 30, 2020 adopted a full allotment strategy at a fixed rate of 2.5 percent.
  - March 21, 2020 announcements: (i) extension of the collateral framework to include bank loans to prequalified 1,700 private companies; (ii) setting-up a framework with the banking system to support firms with repayment difficulties.

### IMF program status and requests
- Burkina Faso is implementing a 3-year ECF arrangement approved in March 2018, in the amount of SDR 108.36 million (90 percent of quota).
- Preliminary information indicates satisfactory implementation; all quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and all-but-one indicative targets for end-December 2019 were met.
- The mission for the fourth review was postponed due to uncertainty and difficulties of conducting a full review mission.
- Burkina Faso has requested support under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and has requested grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the CCRT to cover IMF debt service falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022 (amounting to SDR 39.5 million).

### Staff appraisal and eligibility
- Staff supports Burkina Faso’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
- Income threshold: GNI per capita of US$660, below the threshold of US$1,175.
- Staff assesses that Burkina Faso faces exceptional BOP needs stemming from COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the disaster.

### Upcoming IMF debt service and relief request
- Debt service falling due in the initial period of debt service relief (April 14 to October 13, 2020): SDR 8.7 million.
- Debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022: SDR 39.5 million.
- The Government requests CCRT grant assistance to cover debt service to the IMF falling due in that 24-month period (SDR 39.5 million) or as much as is available from resources.

*Source: Annex 3.A. Burkina Faso: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request (IMF).*

### Annex 4.A. Central African Republic: Staff Appraisal—CCRT

### Annex 4.A. Central African Republic: Staff Appraisal—CCRT

### Request
- The Central African Republic (C.A.R.) requests support under the Catastrophe Containment window of the CCRT to address exceptional balance of payments needs resulting from the impact of COVID-19.

### Economic impact
- Reported COVID-19 cases: 8 cases reported.
- Expected 2020 growth: 1 percent (down from previously envisaged 5 percent).
- Cost of the COVID-19 response plan: about 2 percent of GDP.
- Estimated overall fiscal impact of the pandemic: about 3¾ percent of GDP (additional outlays and substantial shortfall in domestic revenue).
- Additional external financing needs for 2020: about 3½ percent of GDP (stemming from lower commodity exports, remittances and financial flows, and higher imports of healthcare products).
- Fiscal and containment measures implemented:
  - Closing of borders, schools, and most public establishments.
  - Ban on meetings of more than 15 people.
  - Restrictions on movement of people from Bangui.
  - Response plan prepared in collaboration with WHO to strengthen national health system capacity.

### Macroeconomic policies
- Authorities intend to accommodate most of the fiscal impact of the pandemic while offsetting part of it (about ½ percent of GDP) by savings on non-priority spending.
- CEMAC regional support: monetary easing measures and possibility for banks to use capital conservation buffers.

### IMF program status
- New ECF arrangement approved on December 20, 2019: 75 percent of quota (SDR 83.55 million).
- Authorities have requested RCF support: 25 percent of quota (SDR 27.85 million).
- Requests for additional support from other donors, including the World Bank and the European Union, to assist urgent balance of payments needs.

### Staff appraisal
- Staff supports C.A.R.’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
- Income threshold: GNI per capita of US$480 (below threshold of US$1,175).
- Staff assessment: C.A.R. faces exceptional BOP needs from COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies.

### Upcoming debt service to IMF and CCRT treatment
- Debt service falling due in initial period of relief (April 14 to October 13, 2020): SDR 2.96 million.
- Debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 (maximum potential period of relief): SDR 12.98 million.
- Table of debt service due to the IMF over the 24 months from April 14, 2020: total SDR 12.98 million (cumulative % of quota 11.65). (Itemized loan-level amounts and dates listed in source.)

### Key economic and fiscal indicators (selected exact figures from tables)
- 2020 projections (ECF request, percent changes or percent of GDP unless indicated):
  - GDP at constant prices: 1.0 (annual percent change).
  - GDP per capita at constant prices: -0.7 (annual percent change).
  - GDP at current prices: 3.4 (annual percent change).
  - CPI (annual average): 1.2 (percent).
  - Broad money: 12.3 (annual percent change).
  - Credit to the economy: -2.0 (annual percent change).
  - Export volume of goods: -9.9 (annual percent change).
  - Import volume of goods: -1.3 (annual percent change).
  - Gross national savings: 10.5 (percent of GDP).
  - Gross domestic savings: -1.1 (percent of GDP).
  - Consumption (percent of GDP): 101.1.
  - Gross investment (percent of GDP): 16.2.
  - External current account balance with grants: -5.7 (percent of GDP).
  - Overall balance of payments (percent of GDP): -0.5.
  - Total revenue (including grants): 19.6 (percent of GDP).
  - Domestic revenue: 8.5 (percent of GDP).
  - Total expenditure: 21.7 (percent of GDP), of which capital spending: 8.7 (percent of GDP).
  - Overall fiscal balance excluding grants: -13.1 (percent of GDP); including grants: -2.1 (percent of GDP).
  - Domestic primary balance: -5.8 (percent of GDP).
  - Public sector debt: 47.1 (percent of GDP), of which domestic debt: 8.3 (percent of GDP) and external debt: 38.9 (percent of GDP).
  - GDP per capita (US dollars): 480.
  - Nominal GDP (CFAF billions): 1,380.

- Balance of payments (Billions of CFAF) 2020 estimates and selected items:
  - Current account (2020): -78.2 (billion CFAF).
  - Balance on goods (2020): -206.0 (billion CFAF).
  - Exports, f.o.b. (2020): 94.1 (billion CFAF).
    - Diamonds (2020): 2.8 (billion CFAF).
    - Wood products (2020): 58.0 (billion CFAF).
  - Imports, f.o.b. (2020): -300.1 (billion CFAF).
    - Petroleum products (2020): -91.3 (billion CFAF).
  - Services (net, 2020): -38.7 (billion CFAF).
  - Transfers (net, 2020): 180.9 (billion CFAF).
    - Private transfers (2020): 83.1 (billion CFAF).
    - Official transfers (2020): 99.5 (billion CFAF), of which program: 81.9 (billion CFAF).
  - Capital account (2020): 8.5 (billion CFAF).
  - Financial account (2020): 3.8 (billion CFAF).
  - Overall balance (2020): -9.3 (billion CFAF).
  - Identified financing (2020): 15.0 (billion CFAF).
  - Net IMF credit (2020): 11.1 (billion CFAF).
  - IMF purchase (2020): -18.5 (billion CFAF).
  - IMF repurchase (2020): 7.4 (billion CFAF).
  - Other reserves (increase = -) (2020): 3.9 (billion CFAF).
  - Exceptional financing (proposed CCRT) (2020): 0.0 (billion CFAF).
  - Residual financing need (2020): 0.0 (billion CFAF).

### Letter of Intent (summary of authorities' request and measures)
- Date of Letter: April 7, 2020.
- Authorities' assessment and requests:
  - Anticipated 2020 real output growth: 1 percent (vs pre-crisis projection of 5 percent).
  - Fiscal impact estimate: on the order of 3¾ percent of GDP.
  - Emerging balance of payments need projected at about US$80 million (3½ percent of GDP).
  - Plan to increase health sector outlays by some 77 percent (2 percent of GDP) in 2020.
  - Social distancing measures enacted: closing borders and most public and private education institutions; ban on meetings of more than 15 people; restrictions on movement from Bangui.
  - Expect an increase in the overall fiscal balance (excluding grants) in the order of 3¼ percent of GDP.
  - Request for grant assistance under CCRT to cover IMF debt service falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022, or as much as available.
  - Submitted RCF request of SDR 27.85 million (25 percent of quota).
  - Authorization for the IMF to publish the letter and related Board documents.

*Source: IMF staff appraisal and annexes as provided in the content unit.*

### Annex 5.B. Letter of Intent—CCRT Request

### Annex 5.B. Letter of Intent—CCRT Request

### Background and COVID-19 impact
- Ten cases have been declared so far but more cases have been reported in neighboring countries.
- We currently anticipate that:
  - real output will contract by 0.1 percent in 2020, compared with pre-crisis projections of 3.9 percent of positive growth;
  - the impact on the budget of rising health and related outlays and a fall-off in oil revenues will be about 3 percent of non-oil GDP; and
  - the emerging balance of payments need resulting from the crisis will be about 4 percent of non-oil GDP.

### Planned public health and social measures
- Increase health sector outlays by 0.3 percent of non-oil GDP over the course of 2020, with key measures already underway including:
  - training of medical and technical staff;
  - purchase of necessary medical equipment;
  - construction of seven health centers in remote areas and three mobile hospitals; and
  - securely managing entry points.
- Increase expenditure on social protection for workers who have lost income and on support for badly-affected sectors to mitigate the economic impact.

### Economic and fiscal relief measures
- Measures for small and medium-sized businesses:
  - reduction of the business license and of the presumptive tax to help enterprises, merchants, and public transport;
  - examination on a case by case basis of tax breaks such as allowing loss carry-over and late payment of taxes, potentially helping sectors including air transport, tourism and hospitality;
  - suspension from April of ad hoc tax audits and all general accounting verifications.
- Domestic debt clearance plan:
  - payment of CFAF 110 billion of debts owed to suppliers to the state will be made as soon as possible thanks to the mobilization of savings by Chadian banks.
- Measures in favor of populations:
  - State assumption of all water consumption billed by the Société Tchadienne des Eaux or by management committees (or at standpipes) to households for a period of six months;
  - State assumption of the invoices of the National company of Electricity for the domestic uses of the 1st social tranche capped at 150 KWh per month;
  - payment of all death benefits due to deceased civil and military agents, indemnities and ancillary wages owed to retirees and payment of medical expenses for civilian agents and defense and security forces in accordance with the domestic debt clearance plan adopted by the Council of Ministers;
  - speed up the establishment of the Youth Entrepreneurship Fund in agreement with Chadian banks for an amount of CFAF 30 billion, with a third of which reserved for young women.

### Fiscal space and financing needs
- The authorities are seeking to create budgetary space for these outlays, particularly in poorer areas, but still expect:
  - an increase in the primary non-oil budget deficit on the order of 1.5 percent of non-oil GDP.
- Hope that additional donor support will help meet part of this fiscal financing need, with the remaining financing expected to come from domestic sources.

### Request to the IMF and related financing plans
- Request for grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) to cover debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022:
  - SDR 10.2 million, or 7.1 percent of quota, or as much as is available from resources.
- Purpose of the requested debt relief:
  - free up budgetary resources to address public health needs and support economic activity in key sectors;
  - help contain the exceptional balance of payments need resulting from the pandemic.
- Additional IMF engagement:
  - actively seeking additional support by accessing the emergency financing facilities and will submit a request for support on the order of SDR 84.12 million (60 percent of quota).
- Ongoing commitments:
  - remain committed to the current ECF agreement which ends on June 29, 2020, with a final remaining drawing of SDR 28.04 million (20% of the quota).

### Publication authorization
- The authorities authorize the IMF to publish this letter and all staff Board documents related to this request for debt relief from the CCRT.

*Source: Annex 5.B. Letter of Intent—CCRT Request, Chad (N’Djamena, April 7, 2020).*

### 4.7 percent of GDP; and the emerging balance of payments need resulting from the crisis is

### ppea2020022 - 4.7 percent of GDP; and the emerging balance of payments need resulting from the crisis is

### Economic impact and projections
- Emerging balance of payments need from the crisis projected to be on the order of US$62 million (5.2 percent of GDP and 32 percent of our end-2019 official external reserves).
- Impacts determined by comparison with baseline projections in the 2019 Article IV consultation.
- Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) COVID-19 projections (Annex 7.A):
  - Real GDP in 2020 projected to contract to -2.2 percent, compared to a pre-virus baseline growth rate of 3.2 percent.
  - Fiscal cost of the pandemic in 2020 estimated at 1.1 percent of GDP, comprising:
    - Revenue losses of 0.9 percent of GDP
    - Public health expenditures of 0.2 percent of GDP
    - Shortfall in issuance of treasury bills of 0.1 percent of GDP
  - Balance of payments (BOP) financing gap estimated at about US$637 million or 1.3 percent of GDP.
  - Projections assume a temporary impact from the pandemic and are highly uncertain.

### Policy response (authorities’ measures)
- Health and containment:
  - Implemented travel restrictions, quarantines, and social distancing.
  - Plan to implement pandemic preparedness plan.
  - Plan to increase health sector outlays by 2 percent of GDP over the course of 2020 (in one letter reference) and elsewhere increase health sector outlays by some $138 million (0.3 percent of GDP) over 2020 (DRC letter).
  - Procurement of essential food and provision of free clean water and electricity for urban poor affected by confinement orders (DRC letter).
- Fiscal policy:
  - Direct fiscal policy at mitigating negative effects of COVID-19.
  - Plans to delay deadlines for tax filings and temporarily lower customs duties for certain imports.
  - Considering support to the most vulnerable if resources are available.
  - May lower investment spending slightly to limit fiscal impacts; further spending reprioritization if resources fall short.
  - Curtailed non-essential spending and re-directed resources to COVID-19 outlays.
  - Anticipated fiscal financing gap examples:
    - US$531 million or 1.1 percent of GDP (DRC letter).
    - Immediate gross fiscal impact for The Gambia estimated at about 3.5 percent of GDP (Annex 8.A).
- Monetary and financial sector policies:
  - Gear monetary policy to maintaining the exchange rate peg to the euro while ensuring sufficient banking system liquidity (first section).
  - Central Bank of Congo (BCC) measures:
    - Reduced policy rate by 150 basis points to 7.5 percent (Annex 7.A).
    - Eliminated reserve requirements for sight deposits in local currency.
    - Established emergency liquidity facility for banks.
    - Postponed mandatory adoption of new capital requirements.
    - Allowed banks to exceptionally restructure outstanding loans of affected borrowers.
    - Agreed to limit foreign exchange market interventions given very low foreign reserves.
  - Central Bank measures to support economic activity: provide additional liquidity beyond existing facilities, ease loan repayment conditions, reduce charges related to electronic transactions, and allow orderly exchange rate adjustment (DRC letter).
  - The Gambia: CBG reduced policy rate by 50 basis points to 12 percent and increased standing deposit facility rate to 3 percent (Annex 8.A).

### IMF assistance requests and debt relief
- Request for grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) to cover IMF debt service falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022, or as much as available from resources.
- Anticipated uses of debt relief:
  - Free up budgetary resources to address public health needs and support economic activity in key sectors.
  - Help contain exceptional BOP need resulting from the pandemic.
- DRC specific requests and intended IMF support:
  - Request for support under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) of SDR 8.9 million equivalent to 50 percent of quota (first section).
  - Actively seeking additional support from IMF; will submit a request for support under RCF and RFI.
  - DRC also indicated it is seeking RCF financing on the order of SDR 266.5 million (25 percent of quota) to address urgent BOP needs (DRC letter).
  - The World Bank has committed to provide financial support for the COVID-19 response plan and mobilize a DPO on an emergency basis (DRC letter).

### IMF program status and staff appraisal
- IMF program status (DRC):
  - On December 16, 2019 the Board approved a Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of SDR 266.5 million, or 25 percent of quota, coupled with a Managing Director’s approval of a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) through end-May 2020.
  - Authorities have requested a disbursement under the exogenous shock window of the RCF equivalent to 25 percent of quota (SDR 266.5 million).
  - Performance under the SMP satisfactory as of end-2019, though end-March targets likely to be missed based on available information.
- Staff appraisal (DRC):
  - Staff supports DRC’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
  - DRC meets the income threshold with GNI per capita of US$490 (below threshold of US$1,175).
  - Staff assesses DRC faces exceptional BOP needs from COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies.
- Upcoming IMF debt service (DRC):
  - Debt service of SDR 14.9 million falling due in the initial period of debt service relief from April 14 to October 13, 2020.
  - Debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 amounts to SDR 29.7 million (maximum potential period subject to availability of resources and Executive Board decisions).

### Key statistics and table highlights (selected exact figures)
- From first section:
  - Emerging BOP need projected: US$62 million (5.2 percent of GDP and 32 percent of end-2019 official external reserves).
- From Annex 7.A (DRC projections and indicators, 2020 projections unless otherwise indicated):
  - Real GDP 2020: -2.2 percent.
  - Fiscal cost of pandemic in 2020: 1.1 percent of GDP (revenue losses 0.9 percent; public health expenditures 0.2 percent; treasury bill issuance shortfall 0.1 percent).
  - BOP financing gap: US$637 million (1.3 percent of GDP).
  - Central bank policy rate reduced by 150 basis points to 7.5 percent.
  - GNI per capita: US$490.
  - Scheduled debt service over 24 months from April 14, 2020: SDR 29.7 million.
- From DRC letter (April 8, 2020):
  - As of April 6: 161 infected people identified with 18 deaths.
  - Anticipated real output growth swing in 2020 of 5.4 percentage points to -2.2 percent.
  - Fiscal financing gap: US$531 million or 1.1 percent of GDP (DRC letter).
  - International reserves could decline to less than 4 weeks of import coverage.
  - Planned increase in health sector outlays of some $138 million (0.3 percent of GDP) over 2020.
- From Annex 8.A (The Gambia):
  - 2020 growth outlook revised from 6.3 to 2.5 percent.
  - 2020 BOP outlook weakened by at least US$40 million (2 percent of GDP).
  - Immediate gross fiscal impact estimated at about 3.5 percent of GDP (domestic revenue shortfalls ~1.0 percent of GDP; emergency spending 1.5 percent of GDP).
  - Combined mitigating measures reduce immediate financing needs to about 1.7 percent of GDP.
  - CBG policy rate reduced by 50 basis points to 12 percent; standing deposit facility rate increased to 3 percent.

_Italic: International Monetary Fund, Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust / Annexes and Letters as presented in the supplied content unit._

### 35.0 million (56.3 percent of quota) was approved on March 23, 2020. All end-March indicative

### Annex 8.A. The Gambia: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Program approvals, financing requests, and modifications
- An amount of 35.0 million (56.3 percent of quota) was approved on March 23, 2020.
- The authorities requested disbursement under the RCF in the amount of SDR 15.55 million (25 percent of quota).
- To accommodate the worsened BOP outlook, the authorities requested to alter the end-June and end-December performance criteria for:
  - net usable international reserves of the CBG by US$27 million; and
  - net domestic assets of the CBG by the same amount in dalasi.

### Staff appraisal and eligibility for CCRT relief
- Staff supports The Gambia’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
- The Gambia meets the income threshold with GNI per capita of US$700, below the threshold of US$1,175.
- Staff assesses that The Gambia faces exceptional BOP needs stemming from the impact of COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the disaster.
- Staff recommends that the funds freed by this debt relief be available to supplement the budget.

### Upcoming debt service to the IMF and CCRT coverage
- The Gambia’s debt service to the IMF falling due in the initial period of debt service relief from April 14, 2020 to October 13, 2020 amounts to SDR 2.10 million.
- The debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 (the maximum potential period of debt service relief, subject to availability of resources and decisions of the Executive Board) amounts to SDR 7.93 million.

### Economic impact of COVID-19 and fiscal/balance-of-payments needs (authorities' assessment)
- Health and epidemiological situation (as of April 3):
  - 4 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including one fatality; two patients recovered.
  - More than 245 people quarantined (mostly recent arrivals); over 200 discharged after testing negative and completing 14 days quarantine.
  - Elevated risk of rapid spread due to high population density in greater Banjul and fragility of the health system.
- Macroeconomic and fiscal projections and estimates:
  - Real output growth in 2020 anticipated to decline to 2.5 percent, compared with pre-crisis projections of 6.3 percent.
  - Impact on the budget from rising health and related outlays, fall-off in tax revenues, and delayed public investment estimated at about 3.5 percent of GDP.
  - Urgent balance-of-payments need resulting from the crisis projected to be about US$40 million (2 percent of GDP and about 18 percent of our end-2019 official external reserves).

### Measures taken and additional financing actions by the authorities
- Health and immediate support spending:
  - Increased spending on health sector by GMD 0.5 billion (0.5 percent of GDP) per the Ministry of Health COVID-19 action plan.
  - Spending on security, logistics to enforce containment, and support to the neediest estimated at about 1 percent of GDP.
  - These outlays address only immediate pressures; further steps being costed with development partners.
- Mitigating revenue and budgetary measures:
  - Gradual adjustment of domestic fuel prices.
  - Reallocation of budgetary resources from non-essential spending.
  - Locked-in savings on energy subsidies, travel, and vehicle expenses.
  - Combined effect reduces immediate financing needs to about 1.7 percent of GDP.
- Monetary and financial sector measures:
  - The CBG reduced its policy rate by 50 basis points in February 2020 to 12 percent.
  - The CBG increased the standing deposit facility rate by 50 basis points to 3 percent.
  - The CBG has stepped up monitoring of banks’ liquidity and financial health and will rely on exchange-rate flexibility as a shock absorber.
- Financing strategy:
  - The authorities requested grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the CCRT to cover debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022 or as much as available resources permit.
  - The authorities intend to transfer the funds freed by debt relief to the budget to help cover COVID-19-related fiscal needs, prevent deeper reallocation of spending, and help protect planned social programs.
  - The authorities have requested emergency financing under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) in the amount of SDR 15.55 million (25 percent of quota) and are seeking additional grant support from other partners.

### Transparency commitment
- The authorities authorize the IMF to publish the letter of intent and all staff Board documents related to the CCRT request.

*Source: IMF staff estimates, projections, and The Gambia authorities as presented in the CCRT documentation.*

### Annex 9.B. Letter of Intent—CCRT Request

### Annex 9.B. Letter of Intent—CCRT Request

### Context and immediate impact
- The Covid-19 pandemic is having severe effects on health prospects and economic activity globally.
- Guinea is experiencing an exceptional balance of payments need arising from the pandemic and the country’s response.
- Health and economic shocks described:
  - "So far, more than 100 Covid-19 cases have been confirmed, which will likely worsen."
  - Containment measures implemented: closure of borders, banning of large gatherings and public events, and social distancing—these measures have started to hit commerce, services, and transport activities.
  - Slowdown in China, Guinea’s main trading partner, is weakening demand for Guinea’s bauxite and is expected to delay foreign direct investments in the mining sector.

### Macroeconomic projections and fiscal impact
- Key projections and estimates for 2020 relative to pre-crisis expectations:
  - Real output growth in 2020 could decelerate to 2.9 percent, compared with pre-crisis projections of 5.8 percent.
  - The budgetary impact from scaling-up health-related spending and lower tax revenues is estimated to be about 1 percent of GDP.
    - This leads to a basic fiscal deficit of about 0.5 percent of GDP, against an anticipated basic fiscal surplus of 0.6 percent of GDP before the pandemic.
  - The balance of payments financing need resulting from the pandemic is currently estimated to be US$103 million (about 0.7 percent of GDP or about 8 percent of end-2019 international reserves).

### Policy response and measures
- Health sector and preparedness:
  - A National Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan to a COVID-19 outbreak was prepared in March 2020 with technical support from WHO, the World Bank, and other development partners.
  - Under the COVID-19 Emergency Plan, Guinea will scale-up health-related spending by an additional 0.3 percent of GDP in 2020 to:
    - reinforce capacity for COVID-19 detection;
    - expand treatment facilities and acquire medical equipment;
    - conduct a communication campaign for prevention.
  - Discussions with donors have started to mobilize financing for the plan; authorities are also seeking to re-allocate non-priority budgeted spending towards health-related expenditures.
- Monetary, exchange rate, and liquidity stance:
  - Despite larger short-term budgetary financing needs, the authorities will continue limiting central bank’s lending to the government in order to contain inflation.
  - The authorities will ensure liquidity provision as needed to the banking sector.
  - The exchange rate will be allowed to adjust, while avoiding large volatility, to support the balance of payments and preserve international reserves.

### Request for CCRT assistance
- Given the pandemic-induced balance of payments need, Guinea requests grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the CCRT to cover debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24-month period from 14 April, 2020 to 13 April, 2022 or as much as is available from resources.
- Purpose of debt relief:
  - Free up budgetary resources to address public health needs and support economic activity in key sectors.
  - Help contain the exceptional balance of payments need resulting from the pandemic.

### Commitment and authorization
- Authorities’ commitments:
  - Continue working closely with IMF staff to maintain broad macroeconomic stability during the pandemic and in the post-pandemic recovery period.
  - If needed, seek additional financial support from the IMF.
  - Continue strong macroeconomic policies in the post-pandemic recovery period.
- Publication authorization:
  - The authorities authorize the IMF to publish this letter and all staff Board documents related to this request for debt relief from the CCRT.

### Signatories
- Mamadi Camara — Minister of Economy and Finance
- Lounceny Nabé — Governor of the Central Bank of Guinea

*Annex 9.B. Letter of Intent—CCRT Request, Guinea (Conakry, April 5, 2020).*

### Annex 11.A. Haiti: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Annex 11.A. Haiti: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Request summary
- Haiti requested support under the Catastrophe Containment window of the CCRT.
- Haiti also requested a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), to be considered separately by the Executive Board on April 17, 2020.
- Haiti requested grant assistance to cover debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022, “or as much as can be provided from available resources.”

### Economic impact of Covid-19
- Major channels and estimated impacts:
  - Remittances: a drop estimated at US$557 million compared to the previous fiscal year; remittances exceeded US$3 billion in FY2019.
  - Textile exports to the U.S.: a decline of about US$178 million, or 2.0 percent of GDP.
  - Foreign direct investment (FDI): a drop of about 0.4 percent of GDP.
- Fiscal effects:
  - Additional direct health, medical, security, and social expenditures to address virus-related impact.
  - Expected decline in fiscal revenues as a share of GDP by 0.6 percentage points, to a level 3.0 percent of GDP below the FY2016-FY2018 average.
- Output and financing:
  - Real GDP growth is forecast to contract by 4.0 percent in FY2020 compared to a 1.2 percent drop estimated for FY2019 and a pre-Covid-19 baseline of -0.4 percent.
  - Gross fiscal financing needs expected to reach 6.4 percent of GDP, including new Covid-19-related spending, up some 3 percent of GDP from the pre-Covid baseline.
  - Associated overall balance of payments financing needs have increased by over US$300 million compared to the pre-Covid baseline projections.
- Memorandum indicators (selected from tables):
  - Nominal GDP (2018): US$9.7 billion
  - GDP per capita (2018): $890
  - Population (2016): 10.847 million
  - Percent of population below poverty line (2012): 58

### Immediate policy response by authorities
- Public health and containment measures (announced March 20):
  - Declared a state of emergency; instituted a curfew; shut all borders to persons (not freight); closed schools, factories, and places of worship; cancelled public gatherings.
- Social and sectoral support measures:
  - Paying some salaries (teachers, professors, and textile workers), providing cash transfers and food rations to households, providing subsidies to the transport and sanitation sectors.
  - Together with additional planned spending on healthcare and security, extra spending is estimated at 1.6 percent of GDP.
- Central bank (BRH) measures to cushion financial sector:
  - Reduced the refinance and reference rates.
  - Lowered reserve requirements on domestic currency deposits.
  - Allowed 20 percent of treasury certificates held to count against reserves.
  - Eased loan repayment obligations for three months.
  - Suspended fees on interbank transactions (noted in Letter of Intent).

### Macroeconomic policy framework and reform commitments
- Authorities committed to implement a reform program with support of a staff monitored program (SMP) including:
  - Strengthening fiscal and monetary policy frameworks.
  - Improving tax administration and public finance management.
  - Tackling governance weaknesses and corruption.
  - Building a coherent social safety net.
  - Reforming the energy sector.
- Authorities are monitoring balance of payments and will allow the exchange rate to adjust if warranted while remaining alert to destabilizing expectations.

### IMF program status and staff appraisal
- IMF exposure and requests:
  - Haiti does not currently have an IMF arrangement and has outstanding debt to the IMF of SDR 54.6 million, or 33 percent of quota (March 2020).
  - The country has requested emergency financing support under the RCF and also requested an SMP.
- Staff assessment and recommendation:
  - Staff support Haiti’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
  - Haiti meets the income threshold with GDP per capita of US$890 (below the threshold of US$1,175).
  - Staff assess that Haiti faces exceptional balance of payments needs stemming from the impact of Covid-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the disaster.

### Upcoming IMF debt service and relief eligibility
- Debt service due in the initial period of debt service relief (April 14 to October 13, 2020): SDR 4.1 million.
- Debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 (maximum potential period of debt service relief): SDR 15.2 million.
- Detailed debt service schedule (selected totals):
  - Table 3 lists multiple PRGT Repayment (ECF) entries totaling individual SDR amounts and cumulative percent-of-quota impacts; entries include amounts such as 819,000; 163,800; 491,400; 982,800; 702,000 (see table for full schedule and dates).

### Key macroeconomic projections (selected figures from Tables 1 and 2)
- Real GDP (annual percent change): FY2018: 1.5; FY2019: -1.2; FY2020: -4.0; FY2021: 1.2; FY2022: 1.0; FY2023: 1.1; FY2024: 1.2; FY2025: 1.4.
- Consumer prices (period average): FY2018: 12.9; FY2019: 17.3; FY2020: 22.2; FY2021: 21.3; FY2022: 18.3; FY2023: 15.3; FY2024: 12.9; FY2025: 10.9.
- Remittances (valued in U.S. dollars, percent change): FY2018: 21.1; FY2019: 8.5; FY2020: -18.3; FY2021: 12.7; FY2022: 7.3; FY2023: -3.0; FY2024: -2.8; FY2025: -0.9.
- Overall balance (including grants, percent of GDP): FY2018: -1.7; FY2019: -2.4; FY2020: -5.2; FY2021: -2.9; FY2022: -2.8; FY2023: -2.4; FY2024: -2.5; FY2025: -2.6.
- External current account balance (including official grants, percent of GDP): FY2018: -3.9; FY2019: -1.4; FY2020: -3.7; FY2021: -0.6; FY2022: -0.4; FY2023: -1.4; FY2024: -2.0; FY2025: -2.6.
- Gross international reserves (millions of U.S. dollars): FY2018: 2,086; FY2019: 2,100; FY2020: 1,872; FY2021: 1,885; FY2022: 1,977; FY2023: 2,069; FY2024: 2,140; FY2025: 2,190.
- Overall balance of payments financing need cited in Letter of Intent: about US$338 million (3.9 percent of GDP and 16.0 percent of end-2019 official external reserves).

*Source: Annex 11.A. Haiti: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request (IMF).*

### Annex 12.A. Liberia: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Annex 12.A. Liberia: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Economic impact
- COVID-19 projected effects:
  - Real GDP growth for 2020 is projected at -2.5 percent, a 3 percentage-point downward revision compared to pre-COVID-19 projection.
  - Terms of trade shock is positive as fuel prices declined much more than those of Liberia’s main export commodities (iron ore, rubber, gold).
  - General lockdown abroad and suspension of aid-related travel are projected to adversely affect the tourism and related service sector.
- Fiscal and external impacts:
  - The cumulative fiscal deficit over FY20 and FY21 (fiscal year ends in June) is expected to deteriorate by 3 percentage points of GDP, largely due to a revenue shortfall but also to some increase in spending.
  - A decline in net remittance inflows and delays in capital inflows are expected to more than offset the positive term-of-trade effects, increasing the balance of payments need by 5.5 percentage points of GDP over 2020-22.
  - Authorities estimate the emerging balance of payments need resulting from the crisis is projected to be on the order of US$161 million (5.5 percent of GDP and 51 percent of our end-2019 gross official external reserves).

### Policy responses and measures
- Public health and containment measures:
  - February 28: travel advisory requiring a precautionary observation period for those traveling back from COVID-19-affected countries.
  - March 21: declaration enforcing severe social distancing, including closure of all schools, night clubs, cinemas, beaches, spas, mosques and churches; banning of all street selling and gatherings; limits on admittance to banks and restaurants; mandatory washing with soap and clean water at public and private establishments; hotline established for reporting COVID-19 symptoms.
- Fiscal measures:
  - Legislature approved emergency spending of US$3 million on health and social protection, as part of a recast budget for FY2020.
  - Authorities plan to further ramp up health sector outlays and expenditure on social protection for workers who have lost income, in collaboration with donors.
  - Exploring measures to safeguard revenue and reduce non-priority spending; suspending or sharply curtailing outlays not essential to tackling the immediate crisis (including non-health capital expenditure).
  - Expect an increase in the primary budget deficit on the order of 0.9 and 1.8 percentage points of GDP in FY2020 and FY2021, respectively.
- Monetary and financial sector measures:
  - Authorities committed to allow the exchange rate to adjust as needed while monitoring risks of destabilizing expectations and runs on the Liberian dollar.
  - Monitoring the banking sector which was already suffering from high non-performing loans and reduced liquidity; issued regulations to ensure access and affordability of electronic payment services for retail customers during the pandemic.
- Governance and transparency:
  - Intend to ensure all crisis-mitigation funds are spent transparently and plan a post-crisis audit by an independent auditor.

### IMF program status and requests
- Existing program:
  - On December 11, 2019, the Executive Board approved a four-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) in an amount equivalent to SDR 155 million (60 percent of quota).
  - Discussions for the first review started on March 27, 2020, but were postponed due to logistical difficulties of conducting a full ECF review.
  - Preliminary data and discussions suggest program performance has been weak; most end-December fiscal targets were met but the monetary program went off track by a large margin due to an acute shortage of Liberian dollar banknotes and U.S. dollar liquidity assistance to financial institutions with overdrawn balances at the CBL.
  - Authorities are planning to request support under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF).
- CCRT request:
  - Liberia has requested grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) to cover IMF debt service falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022 or as much as is available from resources.

### Staff appraisal and eligibility
- Staff supports Liberia’s request for debt relief under the CCRT:
  - Liberia meets the income threshold with GNI per capita of US$600, below the threshold of US$1,175.
  - Staff assesses that Liberia faces exceptional balance of payments needs stemming from the impact of COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the disaster.

### Upcoming IMF debt service and relief figures
- Debt service falling due in the initial period of debt service relief (April 14 to October 13, 2020):
  - SDR11.6328 million.
- Debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 (maximum potential period of relief, subject to availability of resources and decisions of the Executive Board):
  - SDR45.3436 million.
- Table of outstanding scheduled payments to the IMF (selected totals):
  - Total outstanding payments in the upcoming 24 months: 45,343,600 (SDR).
  - Debt Relief as Cum. % of Quota shown in schedule reaches 17.55 percent at total SDR45,343,600.

### Key statistics and indicators (selected from staff tables and letter of intent)
- COVID-19 epidemiological snapshot:
  - 10 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with the first detected on March 16, 2020; three fatalities; three cases could not be traced to the first known case.
- Macro and fiscal projections and ratios (selected):
  - Real GDP: 2020 projection -2.5 percent (pre-COVID projection +0.5 percent).
  - Cumulative fiscal deficit deterioration over FY20–FY21: 3 percentage points of GDP.
  - Balance of payments need increase over 2020-22: 5.5 percentage points of GDP.
  - Emerging balance of payments need (authorities’ estimate): US$161 million (5.5 percent of GDP and 51 percent of end-2019 gross official external reserves).
  - Emergency spending approved by Legislature: US$3 million.
  - Projected increase in primary budget deficit: 0.9 percentage points of GDP in FY2020 and 1.8 percentage points of GDP in FY2021.
  - GNI per capita: US$600 (below CC eligibility threshold US$1,175).
  - Selected reserve and external figures from staff tables:
    - Gross official reserves (millions of U.S. dollars): 297 (2018), 292 (2019), 317 (2020 Pre-COVID), 316 (2020 Projected).
    - Months of imports of goods and services: 2.3 (2018), 2.5 (2019), 2.5 (2020 Pre-COVID), 2.5 (2020 Projected).
    - Current account balance including grants (percent of GDP): -22.4 (2018), -22.3 (2019), -20.8 (2020 Pre-COVID), -20.8 (2020 Projected).
    - Public external debt (percent of GDP): 31.3 (2018), 33.2 (2019), 41.4 (2020 Pre-COVID), 41.6 (2020 Projected).
- Authorities’ commitments:
  - Will allow exchange rate to adjust as needed.
  - Will submit a request for support under the Rapid Credit Facility.
  - Authorize the IMF to publish the Letter of Intent and all staff Board documents related to the CCRT request.

*Source: Annex 12.A. Liberia: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request (IMF).*

### Annex 13.B. Letter of Intent—CCRT Request

### Annex 13.B. Letter of Intent—CCRT Request

### Context and economic impact
- Date and addressee: April 7, 2020; addressed to Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund.
- Epidemiological and economic situation: "The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Madagascar hard." Number of confirmed cases "relatively small but rising at a fast pace, and the impact on our economy is already severe."
- Growth outlook: "Our preliminary estimates suggest that real output growth in 2020 will decline to 1.6 percent compared to pre-crisis projections of more than 5 percent due to a dramatic decline in tourism, and disruptions to manufacturing and extractive industry exports, as well as to transport, communications, and services."

### Balance of payments need and prior IMF support
- Exceptional BOP need: The authorities state they are "experiencing an exceptional balance of payments need arising from the pandemic and our response to it."
- Earlier estimate (before RCF disbursement): "the balance of payments need was estimated, before the disbursement under the RCF, at SDR194 million, equivalent to 1.8 percent of GDP in 2020."
- RCF disbursement: Request and approval: "Our request for emergency financing under the RCF in the amount of SDR 122.2 million, equivalent to 50 percent of quota, has been approved by the IMF Executive Board on April 3, 2020."

### Policy priorities and measures undertaken
- Immediate priorities: "to ensure the health of the population and preserve macroeconomic stability."
- Health and social protection measures:
  - "Increasing health spending and use targeted investments to strengthen the health system with the support of development partners;"
  - "increasing expenditures on social protection to support the most vulnerable, contain the epidemic, and mitigate its financial consequences (with first measures including distribution of food staples and postponing of payments on mortgages and credit)."
- Support to the private sector and financial stability:
  - "Supporting the private sector with several tax measures, including deadline extensions for certain declarations and payments,"
  - "taking measures to preserve the stability of the financial sector, including through liquidity injection into the banking sector."
- Exchange rate and reserve policy: "Maintaining a flexible exchange rate to act as a shock absorber and using reserves only to finance any unfilled financing gap while maintaining an adequate level."

### CCRT request and intended use
- Scope of request: The authorities "hereby request grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) to cover our debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022 or as much as is available under the Trust."
- Purpose of debt relief: "This debt relief will free up budgetary resources to address public health needs and support economic activity in key sectors; it will also help contain the exceptional balance of payments need resulting from the pandemic."

### Coordination with partners and follow-up
- Ongoing engagement: "We continue to work closely with IMF staff to maintain broad macroeconomic stability during the current global pandemic and will continue to do so in the post-pandemic recovery period."
- Catalyzing external support: The RCF disbursement "has already helped catalyze wider support from other development partners, and additional project and budget support discussions are advancing well, including for the augmentation of an existing Development Policy Loan with a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO) co-financed by the World Bank and the Agence Francaise de Development, and for additional support from the European Union and the African Development Bank."

### Administrative authorizations and signatories
- Publication authorization: "We authorize the IMF to publish this letter and all staff Board documents related to this request for debt relief from the CCRT."
- Signatories:
  - Mr. Richard Randriamandrato — Minister of Economy and Finance
  - Mr. Henri Rabarijohn — Bank of Madagascar Governor

*Republic of Madagascar — Letter of Intent (April 7, 2020) requesting CCRT Catastrophe Containment grant to cover IMF debt service for April 14, 2020–April 13, 2022, referencing prior RCF approval of SDR 122.2 million on April 3, 2020 and an earlier estimated BOP need of SDR194 million (1.8 percent of GDP).*

### 11.7 percent of GDP in 2018 while financial account balance including net errors and omission decreased from 16.5 percen

### ppea2020022 - 11.7 percent of GDP in 2018 while financial account balance including net errors and omission decreased from 16.5 percen

### Malawi — Debt service to the IMF (24 months from April 14, 2020)
- Request: grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the CCRT to cover debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022.
- Projected exceptional balance of payments need: US$150 million during 2020-21 (1.8 percent of GDP and 18.3 percent of our end-2019 official external reserves).
- Macroeconomic projections and fiscal impact (Malawi):
  - Real output growth in 2020: 2 percent (compared with pre-crisis projections of around 5 percent).
  - Impact on the budget from rising health and related outlays and fall-off in tax revenues in FY 2019/20: on the order of 1.5 percent of GDP.
  - Increased health sector outlays: 0.2 percent of GDP in 2020H1 (FY 2019/20) and budgeted another 0.3 percent of GDP in 2020H2 (FY 2020/21).
  - Increased expenditure on social assistance: 0.1 percent of GDP in 2020H1 and planned another 0.1 percent of GDP in 2020H2.
  - Expected domestic primary deficit widening in the last quarter of FY 2019/20: about at least 1.7 percent of GDP.
  - FY 2020/21 domestic primary balance expected to worsen on the order of 1.7 percent of GDP relative to end-2019 expectations.
- Policy response measures (Malawi):
  - Preparation and response plan supported by WHO and development partners.
  - Develop testing capabilities, equip treatment centers, import medical equipment and supplies, hire additional medical staff, raise public awareness.
  - Delay spending on goods and services and development projects (non-health) to create budgetary space.
  - RBM (Reserve Bank of Malawi) to enhance monitoring of financial sector risks and inject liquidity as needed.
  - Allow exchange rate to adjust to help narrow the financing gap.
- Donor support reported committed: US$28 million by World Bank, DFID, and GAVI, UN, Irish Aid, Giz, and KfW.
- Malawi authorization: IMF may publish the letter and staff Board documents related to the CCRT request.

- Selected entries from Table 3. Malawi: Debt service due to the IMF over the 24 months from April 14, 2020 (all amounts in SDR and percent of quota as shown):
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 4/16/2020 — 1,301,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 0.9%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 6/22/2020 — 694,000 — 0.5% — Cumulative 1.4%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 6/26/2020 — 1,302,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 2.4%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 7/27/2020 — 1,301,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 3.3%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 7/31/2020 — 1,302,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 4.3%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 9/30/2020 — 1,302,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 5.2%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 10/16/2020 — 1,301,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 6.1%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 12/22/2020 — 694,000 — 0.5% — Cumulative 6.6%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 12/23/2020 — 1,302,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 7.6%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 1/27/2021 — 1,301,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 8.5%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 1/29/2021 — 1,302,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 9.4%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 3/30/2021 — 1,302,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 10.4%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 4/16/2021 — 1,301,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 11.3%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 6/25/2021 — 1,302,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 12.3%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 7/27/2021 — 1,301,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 13.2%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 7/30/2021 — 1,302,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 14.1%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 9/30/2021 — 1,302,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 15.1%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 10/15/2021 — 1,301,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 16.0%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 12/27/2021 — 1,302,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 16.9%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 12/28/2021 — 5,422,000 — 3.9% — Cumulative 20.8%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 1/27/2022 — 1,301,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 21.8%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 1/31/2022 — 1,302,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 22.7%
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 3/30/2022 — 1,302,000 — 0.9% — Cumulative 23.7%

### Mali — Request under the CCRT and macroeconomic assessment
- Statement: Mali faces exceptional balance of payments and fiscal needs from COVID-19 and requested support under the Catastrophe Containment window of the CCRT.
- Economic impact (Mali):
  - Growth expected to slow to 0.9 percent in 2020 (compared to 5.1 percent at time of first review of the ECF arrangement).
  - Fiscal deficit could deteriorate by about 2.6 percentage points of GDP (to 6.1 percent), opening a fiscal financing gap of 2 percent of GDP unless additional grants are identified.
  - External financing pressures: improved terms-of-trade will narrow current account deficit, but lower FDI and private inflows will open an external financing gap of 2.3 percent of GDP.
  - Measures considered: strengthen medical care capacity, income support estimated at 0.8 percent of GDP, reprioritize non-essential spending, accommodate revenue shortfalls estimated at 2.2 percent of GDP.
- Regional central bank actions (BCEAO):
  - Raised liquidity available to banks at weekly and monthly auctions.
  - Revised auction strategies to allow banks to satisfy liquidity needs fully at a lower rate.
  - Extended collateral framework to include bank loans to prequalified private companies.
  - Set up framework with the banking system to support firms with repayment difficulties.
- IMF program status (Mali):
  - Existing three-year ECF arrangement approved August 28, 2019; access level 75 percent of quota (SDR 139.95 million).
  - First review completed January 8, 2020. Following review, 10.7 percent of quota (SDR 20 million) was disbursed, bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 40 million (0.3 percent of 2019 GDP).
  - Discussions under the second review are unfeasible under current circumstances; will resume when possible.
- Staff appraisal (Mali):
  - Mali meets income threshold with GNI per capita of US$830 (below threshold of US$1,175).
  - Staff assesses Mali faces exceptional BOP needs from COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies.
- Upcoming debt service (Mali):
  - Debt service of SDR 7.3 million falling due in the initial period of debt service relief from April 14 to October 13, 2020.
  - Debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 amounts to SDR 30.0 million.

### Mali — Selected economic indicators and balance of payments highlights (selected figures)
- Growth and inflation:
  - Real GDP: 2017 = 5.0; 2018 = 5.2; projections include 2020 = 0.9; 2021 = 5.0; 2022 = 4.0; 2023 = 6.0; 2024 = 5.0; 2025 = 5.0.
  - GDP deflator: 2017 = 2.1; 2018 = 0.4; 2019 = 2.5; projected 2020 = 1.8.
  - Consumer price inflation (average): 2017 = 1.8; 2018 = 1.7; 2019 = -0.4; projected 2020 = 0.6.
- Central government finance (percent of GDP):
  - Revenue: 2017 = 18.4; 2018 = 14.4; 2019 = 19.5; projected 2020 = 18.4; 2021 = 20.7.
  - Tax revenue: 2017 = 15.2; 2018 = 11.9; 2019 = 14.6; projected 2020 = 13.7; 2021 = 15.7.
  - Grants: 2017 = 1.6; 2018 = 1.2; 2019 = 2.4; projected 2020 = 2.5.
  - Total expenditure and net lending: 2017 = 22.9; 2018 = 20.4; 2019 = 24.8; projected 2020 = 27.1.
  - Overall balance (commitment basis, including grants): 2017 = -2.9; 2018 = -4.8; 2019 = -2.9; projected 2020 = -6.1.
- External sector (percent of GDP):
  - Current account balance, including official transfers: 2017 = -7.3; 2018 = -4.9; 2019 = -4.8; projected 2020 = -3.6.
  - Current account balance, excluding official transfers: 2017 = -12.1; 2018 = -9.3; 2019 = -9.4; projected 2020 = -7.1.
  - Exports of goods and services: 2017 = 22.5; 2018 = 24.7; 2019 = 23.6; projected 2020 = 24.4.
  - Imports of goods and services: 2017 = 36.2; 2018 = 35.8; 2019 = 34.6; projected 2020 = 31.5.
- Public debt (end period, percent of GDP):
  - External and Domestic public debt: 2017 = 36.0; 2018 = 37.7; 2019 = 38.3; projected 2020 = 44.3.
  - External public debt: 2017 = 25.0; 2018 = 24.9; 2019 = 26.3; projected 2020 = 27.6.
  - Domestic public debt: 2017 = 11.0; 2018 = 12.8; 2019 = 12.0; projected 2020 = 16.7.
- Debt service and debt indicators:
  - External debt service to exports of goods and services ratio: 2017 = 4.4; 2018 = 3.8; 2019 = 4.0; projected 2020 = 6.6.
  - Debt service (percent of GDP): 2017 = 6.3; 2018 = 5.2; 2019 = 4.8; projected 2020 = 7.2.

### Mali — Balance of payments (selected figures, Billions of CFAF)
- Current account balance (excluding official transfers): 2017 = -1,079; 2018 = -879; 2019 = -958; projected 2020 = -744; 2021 = -994.
- Current account balance (including official transfers): 2017 = -650; 2018 = -465; 2019 = -490; projected 2020 = -376; 2021 = -544.
- Trade balance: 2017 = -415; 2018 = -213; 2019 = -256; projected 2020 = 136; 2021 = -268.
- Exports, f.o.b.: 2017 = 1,686; 2018 = 1,991; 2019 = 2,073; projected 2020 = 2,252.
  - Gold (component of exports): 2017 = 1,176; 2018 = 1,388; 2019 = 1,492; projected 2020 = 1,868.
- Imports, f.o.b.: 2017 = -2,101; 2018 = -2,204; 2019 = -2,329; projected 2020 = -2,116.
- Services (net): 2017 = -808; 2018 = -840; 2019 = -864; projected 2020 = -878.
- Transfers (net): 2017 = 864; 2018 = 871; 2019 = 940; projected 2020 = 693.
  - Private transfers (net): 2017 = 435; 2018 = 457; 2019 = 472; projected 2020 = 325.
  - Official transfers (net): 2017 = 429; 2018 = 414; 2019 = 468; projected 2020 = 367.
- Capital and financial account: 2017 = 698; 2018 = 544; 2019 = 512; projected 2020 = 278.
  - Financial account (net): 2017 = 548; 2018 = 411; 2019 = 292; projected 2020 = 67.
  - Official (net): 2017 = 153; 2018 = 144; 2019 = 307; projected 2020 = 224.
  - Disbursements: 2017 = 206; 2018 = 97; 2019 = 364; projected 2020 = 252.
  - Amortization due on public debt: 2017 = -70; 2018 = -72; 2019 = -99; projected 2020 = -122.
- Overall balance (Billions of CFAF): 2017 = -41; 2018 = 105; 2019 = -138; projected 2020 = -309.
- Financing gap and prospective financing:
  - Financing gap: 2020 (projection) = 243 (memo line indicates prospective financing from CCRT and additional donors).
  - Prospective financing from CCRT (memo): 3 = 10 in 2020; 13 in 2021.

### Mali — Debt service and outstanding credit to the IMF (selected schedule, In SDR)
- Table 3 (selected entries):
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 9-Jun-20 — 800,000 — Eligible for CCR Debt Relief 800,000 — Debt Relief as % of Quota 0.4 — Cum. % of Quota 0.4
  - PRGT Repayment (RCF) 18-Jun-20 — 1,000,000 — Eligible for CCR Debt Relief 1,000,000 — Debt Relief as % of Quota 0.5 — Cum. % of Quota 1.0
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 22-Jun-20 — 600,000 — Eligible for CCR Debt Relief 600,000 — Debt Relief as % of Quota 0.3 — Cum. % of Quota 1.3
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 26-Jun-20 — 2,100,000 — Eligible for CCR Debt Relief 2,100,000 — Debt Relief as % of Quota 1.1 — Cum. % of Quota 2.4
  - PRGT Repayment (RCF) 5-Aug-20 — 1,200,000 — Eligible for CCR Debt Relief 1,200,000 — Debt Relief as % of Quota 0.6 — Cum. % of Quota 3.9
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 28-Dec-20 — 2,100,000 — Eligible for CCR Debt Relief 2,100,000 — Debt Relief as % of Quota 1.1 — Cum. % of Quota 6.9
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 28-Jun-21 — 2,100,000 — Eligible for CCR Debt Relief 2,100,000 — Debt Relief as % of Quota 1.1 — Cum. % of Quota 11.1
  - PRGT Repayment (RCF) 4-Feb-22 — 1,200,000 — Eligible for CCR Debt Relief 1,200,000 — Debt Relief as % of Quota 0.6 — Cum. % of Quota 16.1
- SDR Assessments line shown: 44681.0 139500000 0.0 (as presented in table).

*Source: IMF staff reports and annexes in the CCRT publication material as provided in the source content.*

### Annex 15.B. Letter of Intent— CCRT Request

### Annex 15.B. Letter of Intent— CCRT Request

### Pandemic impact and current situation
- As of April 6, 2020 there were 47 confirmed cases and five deaths.
- The government anticipates:
  - real output growth in 2020 will decline to 0.9 percent, compared with pre-crisis projections of 5.1 percent;
  - the impact on the budget of rising health and related outlays and a fall-off in revenues will be on the order of 2.6 percentage points of GDP;
  - the emerging balance of payments need resulting from the crisis is projected to be on the order of US$416 million (2.3 percent of GDP).

### Fiscal and health-sector measures
- Planned increases in health sector outlays:
  - increase health sector outlays by some 31 percent (0.4 percentage points of GDP) over the course of 2020.
  - key measures already underway include:
    - strengthening testing capacities, stepping up health campaigns, and mass distribution of gel, hydroalcoholic solutions, sanitizers and masks;
    - expanding quarantine and hospitalization facilities;
    - improving medical care capacities.
- Social protection and sector support:
  - plan to increase expenditure on social protection for workers who have lost income and on support for badly affected sectors (0.4 percentage points of GDP).

### Budgetary strategy and financing
- To create budgetary space for crisis outlays:
  - suspend or sharply curtail outlays not seen as essential to tackling the immediate crisis (including non-health capital expenditure).
  - still expect an increase in the primary budget deficit on the order of 2.6 percent of GDP.
- External and domestic financing expectations:
  - hope that additional donor support will help meet part of the fiscal financing need, with the remaining financing expected to come from domestic sources.
- Monetary and exchange rate policy:
  - monetary and exchange rate policies are conducted at the level of the West African Economic and Monetary Union by the regional central bank (BCEAO).

### Request for IMF CCRT assistance and related IMF support
- Request:
  - grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) to cover Mali’s debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022 or as much as is available from these resources.
  - rationale: this debt relief will free up budgetary resources to address public health needs and support economic activity in key sectors and help contain the exceptional balance of payments need resulting from the pandemic.
- Additional IMF financing:
  - actively seeking additional support from the IMF by accessing the emergency financing facilities (Rapid Credit Facility) and have submitted a request for support on the order of at least SDR93.3 million (at least 50 percent of quota).
  - confidence expressed that strong IMF support will help catalyze wider support from other development partners.

### Institutional and publication authorizations
- The authorities state they are working closely with IMF staff to maintain broad macroeconomic stability during the pandemic and in the post-pandemic recovery period.
- Authorization:
  - the government authorizes the IMF to publish this letter and all staff Board documents related to this request for debt relief from the CCRT.

*Letter signed by Dr. Boubou Cissé, Prime Minister, Head of Government, Minister of Economy and Finance, Bamako, Mali, April 7, 2020.*

### 5.      Against this backdrop, and given the large balance of payments needs created by the impact

### ppea2020022 - 5. Against this backdrop, and given the large balance of payments needs created by the impact

### Request for CCRT assistance
- Authorities request grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) to cover debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020, or as much as is available from resources.
- Purpose: free up budgetary resources to address public health needs and support economic activity in key sectors, with focus on the most vulnerable in society.
- Authorities authorize the IMF to publish the letter and all staff Board documents related to the CCRT request.

### Economic impact of COVID-19 on Nepal
- FY2019/20 (July 16, 2019 to July 15, 2020): staff expects growth to be 3.5 percent lower than the pre-pandemic baseline.
- Channels of impact: decline in remittances (mainly from GCC countries, India, and Malaysia), contraction in tourism, drop in domestic activities due to containment measures (nationwide lockdown and border closures).
- Fiscal impact estimates for FY2019/20 relative to pre-pandemic baseline:
  - Extra healthcare spending: 0.6 percent of GDP.
  - Targeted support to the most vulnerable: 0.2 percent of GDP.
  - Revenue shortfalls: 0.7 percent of GDP.
  - Expected widening of overall fiscal deficit: 1.5 percent of GDP.
- Balance of payments impact (current baseline compared to pre-pandemic baseline):
  - Projected current account deficit: 6.5 percent of GDP (compared to 5.2 percent of GDP pre-pandemic).
  - Projected capital and financial account surplus: 4.8 percent of GDP (compared to 5.1 percent pre-pandemic).
  - Resulting balance of payments gap: 1.7 percent of GDP.
- Staff notes: before the pandemic the balance of payments was expected to be in balance, allowing for a stable level of gross official reserves.

### Macroeconomic measures and policies adopted
- Health and social measures:
  - Increase health spending (setting up dedicated hospitals and quarantine centers; removing import tariffs on medical goods).
  - Increase social assistance: discounts on food and utility payments (electricity, internet); extensions of utility payment deadlines; in-kind food provision from local governments for vulnerable individuals.
- Liquidity and banking sector measures:
  - Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) lowered cash reserve ratio from 4 to 3 percent.
  - NRB reduced the interest rate on the standing liquidity facility from 6 to 5 percent.
  - NRB suspended requirement for banks to build up the 2 percent countercyclical capital buffer due in July 2020.
  - NRB announced measures to help borrowers facing temporary cashflow difficulties and to support access to credit for businesses in the most affected sectors.
- Exchange rate policy: credibility of the exchange rate peg preserved by maintaining an adequate level of gross official reserves.
- Budgetary response: authorities plan to reprioritize budgeted expenditure where possible and seek additional support from development partners; remaining financing expected from domestic sources.

### IMF engagement and financing requests
- Nepal has outstanding credit equivalent to 22.7 percent of quota (remainder of previous RCF disbursements in 2010 and 2015).
- Nepal has requested Fund financing under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) to support its COVID-19 response.
- Authorities’ specific CCRT request (Letter of Intent, April 4, 2020):
  - Request grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the CCRT to cover debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 10, 2022, or as much as is available from resources.
  - Anticipated impacts stated in the Letter of Intent:
    - Real output growth in FY2019/20 will decline by 2 to 4 percent, compared to the pre-COVID outlook.
    - Budget impact of rising health and related outlays and shortfall in tax revenues: on the order of 1.5 to 2 percent of GDP.
    - Emerging balance of payments need projected to be on the order of US$400 to US$600 million (1.2 to 1.8 percent of GDP).

### Staff appraisal and eligibility
- Staff supports Nepal’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
- Eligibility criteria and assessment:
  - Nepal meets the income threshold with GNI per capita of US$960 in 2018, below the threshold of US$1,175.
  - Staff assesses that Nepal faces exceptional balance of payments needs stemming from the impact of COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the disaster.

### Outstanding debt service eligible for relief
- Nepal has eligible debt of SDR 2.85 million for the period from April 14 to October 13, 2020.
- Eligible debt falling due:
  - 12 months from April 14, 2020: SDR 6.42 million.
  - 24 months from April 14, 2020: SDR 13.55 million.
- Staff supports authorities’ request for debt service relief for amounts falling due to the Fund up to October 13, 2020, amounting to SDR 2.85 million.

### Key baseline projections and selected indicators (highlights from tables)
- Real GDP growth:
  - 2017/18: 6.7
  - 2018/19: 7.1
  - Article IV 2020: 6.0
  - Current baseline 2020 (Est.): 2.5
- Headline CPI (period average):
  - 2019/20 Article IV baseline: 6.0
  - Current baseline 2020 (Est.): 6.7
- Fiscal indicators (central government, in percent of GDP):
  - Total revenue and grants: 2019/20 Article IV baseline 25.8; current baseline 2020 (Est.) 25.3.
  - Expenditure: 2019/20 Article IV baseline 30.4; current baseline 2020 (Est.) 31.2.
  - Net lending/borrowing: 2019/20 Article IV baseline -4.5; current baseline 2020 (Est.) -6.0.
- Balance of payments:
  - Current account (in percent of GDP): 2019/20 Article IV baseline -5.2; current baseline 2020 (Est.) -6.5.
  - Workers' remittances (in percent of GDP): 2019/20 Article IV baseline 24.7; current baseline 2020 (Est.) 22.6.
  - Gross official reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars): 2019/20 Article IV baseline 8,536; current baseline 2020 (Est.) 7,998.
  - Reserves in months of prospective imports: 2019/20 Article IV baseline 6.6; current baseline 2020 (Est.) 6.3.
- Memorandum items:
  - Public debt (in percent of GDP): 2019/20 Article IV baseline 33.7; current baseline 2020 (Est.) 36.3.
  - Nominal GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars): 2019/20 Article IV baseline 34.1; current baseline 2020 (Est.) 32.6.

*Source: Excerpts from Annex 17.A and Annex 17.B of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust materials in the provided IMF document.*

### Annex 18.A. Niger: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Annex 18.A. Niger: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Economic impact
- Real GDP growth: cut to just 1 percent in 2020, from 6 percent previously projected.
- Fiscal outlook:
  - Fiscal deficit could widen to 5.0 percent of GDP (compared to a budgeted 2.7 percent of GDP).
  - Revenue shortfall of 2.2 percent of GDP.
  - Health care related outlays could rise by as much as 2 percent of GDP.
  - Net expenditure increase expected to be 0.3 percent of GDP after re-prioritization, reshuffling donor projects, and in-kind support.
- Balance of payments:
  - The economic shock opens a financing gap equivalent to 3 percent of GDP.

### Macroeconomic policies and measures
- Comprehensive response plan with three pillars:
  - Health measures (mainly prevention and containment).
  - Social protection (food and cash distributions and free utilities).
  - Business support (predominantly temporary tax relief).
- Fiscal stance: eases in 2020 despite efforts to identify savings in the 2020 budget; authorities committed to fiscal consolidation in 2021 and 2022.
- Regional central bank (BCEAO) measures:
  - Raising the liquidity made available to banks.
  - Ensuring refinancing rates remain close to the floor of the monetary policy corridor of 2.5 percent.
  - Expanding collateral to access central bank refinancing.
  - Setting up a framework with the banking system to support firms with repayment difficulties.

### IMF program status and financing requests
- Existing arrangement: An ECF arrangement (SDR118.44 million or 90 percent of quota) in place since January 2017 and scheduled to expire at end-July 2020.
- The 5th program review: completed on January 8, 2020; broadly satisfactory overall program performance.
- 6th review: not timely due to unsettled macro outlook.
- Emergency request: authorities requested emergency financial assistance under the Rapid Credit Facility (SDR83.66 million, 63.6 percent of quota).
- CCRT request: Niger requests grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the CCRT to cover debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022 (or as much as is available from resources).

### Staff appraisal and eligibility
- Staff supports Niger’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
- Income threshold: Niger meets the income threshold with GNI per capita of some US$600 (below the threshold of US$1,175).
- Staff assessment: Niger faces exceptional balance of payments needs stemming from the impact of COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the disaster.

### Upcoming debt service and relief amounts
- Debt service falling due in the initial period of debt service relief (April 14 to October 13, 2020): SDR 5.64 million.
- Debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 (maximum potential period): SDR 31.595 million.
- Table 3 (Debt Service to the IMF, April 14, 2020 – April 13, 2022) selected entries (as of February 29, 2020, in SDR):
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 29-Jun-20: Total Amount 1,128,000; Eligible for CCR Debt Relief 1,128,000; Debt Relief as % of Quota 0.9; Cum. % of Quota 0.9.
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 28-Sep-20: Total Amount 1,128,000; Eligible for CCR Debt Relief 1,128,000; Debt Relief as % of Quota 0.9; Cum. % of Quota 1.7.
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 7-Oct-20: Total Amount 1,128,000; Eligible for CCR Debt Relief 1,128,000; Debt Relief as % of Quota 0.9; Cum. % of Quota 2.6.
  - PRGT Repayment (ECF) 7-Oct-20: Total Amount 2,256,000; Eligible for CCR Debt Relief 2,256,000; Debt Relief as % of Quota 1.7; Cum. % of Quota 4.3.
  - (Further scheduled PRGT repayments listed through 11-Apr-22, with cumulative Debt Relief as Cum. % of Quota reaching 24.0 by 11-Apr-22.)

### Key points from the Letter of Intent (April 7, 2020)
- First recorded COVID-19 infection in Niger: March 19, 2020.
- Authorities’ anticipations:
  - Real output growth in 2020 will decline to 1 percent (compared with pre-crisis projections of 6 percent).
  - Impact on the budget from rising health and related outlays and a fall-off in fiscal revenues: on the order of 2.4 percent of GDP.
  - Emerging balance of payments need projected to be on the order of US$400 million (3 percent of GDP and 2.3 percent of the BCEAO’s pooled official external reserves).
- Crisis response dimensions:
  - Increase health sector outlays by up to 100 percent (2 percent of GDP) over 2020 (purchase of equipment and test kits; establishment of isolation centers; hiring additional health workers).
  - Increase expenditure on social protection and support for badly-affected sectors.
  - Create budgetary space by suspending or sharply curtailing non-essential outlays (including non-health capital expenditure); still expect an increase in the primary budget deficit on the order of 2.3 percent of GDP.
  - Monetary and exchange rate policies are conducted at the WAEMU level by the BCEAO.
- IMF engagement:
  - Request for SDR 83.66 million (63.6 percent of quota) under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF).
  - Request that the IMF publish the letter and related staff Board documents.

*Source: Annex 18.A. Niger: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request (provided content).*

### 1.5 percent of GDP, respectively, over the next two fiscal years. Economic growth in 2020 is revised

### ppea2020022 - 1.5 percent of GDP, respectively, over the next two fiscal years. Economic growth in 2020 is revised

### Economic impact and outlook
- Economic growth in 2020 is revised down from a pre-pandemic projection of 8 percent by 3 percentage points to 5.1 percent.
- The pandemic created an external financing need of 2 percent of GDP in 2020.
- Fiscal financing needs of 3.7 percent of GDP in the current and next fiscal year, of which 27 percent have been filled by an RCF disbursement.
- Selected projections from Table 1:
  - Real GDP: 2018: 8.6; 2019: 10.1; 2020: 5.1; 2021: 6.7; 2022: 8.0; 2023: 8.6; 2024: 7.1 (Annual percentage change).
  - CPI (period average): 2018: 1.4; 2019: 2.4; 2020: 6.9; 2021: 5.4; 2022: 5.0; 2023: 5.0; 2024: 5.0.
  - Current account balance (incl grants) (percent of GDP): 2018: -8.0; 2019: -9.2; 2020: -16.0; 2021: -10.2; 2022: -9.8; 2023: -9.3; 2024: -8.8.
  - Gross international reserves (In millions of US$): 2018: 1,319; 2019: 1,440; 2020: 1,011; 2021: 1,208; 2022: 1,389; 2023: 1,601; 2024: 1,911.
  - Reserves in months of next year's imports: 2018: 4.7; 2019: 5.4; 2020: 3.0; 2021: 3.1; 2022: 3.5; 2023: 3.8; 2024: 4.1.

### Macroeconomic policies and measures
- Authorities are introducing measures to support affected households and firms.
  - Periodic distribution of basic food staples to vulnerable households has started.
  - Subsidized loans and debt restructuring to hard-hit sectors and SMEs are under consideration.
- Central bank measures:
  - Announced measures allowing banks to ease loan repayment conditions to distressed borrowers.
  - Created a new extended lending facility for banks.
  - Modified existing Treasury bonds rediscounting window.
  - Reduced the reserve requirement ratio.

### IMF program status and financing actions
- Rwanda has a PCI arrangement since June 2019. The next (second) review is expected by June 2020, but timely completion is uncertain given the current outlook.
- Authorities requested an RCF in the amount of US$109.4 million (50 percent of quota), which was approved on April 2 and disbursed on April 6, 2020.
- Net credit from the IMF (Table 2, Financing): IMF disbursement in 2020: 109 (the amount in 2020 corresponds to the RCF disbursement that is transferred to the budget).

### Debt relief, CCRT request, and staff appraisal
- Staff supports Rwanda’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
- At US$780, Rwanda’s GNI per capita is below the IDA income threshold of US$1,175.
- Staff assesses that the country faces urgent balance of payments needs stemming from the severe impact of COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the disaster.
- Authorities have committed to transfer the benefits of the debt relief to the budget.
- Outstanding debt service and amount of grants for debt relief:
  - Rwanda has a debt service of SDR 8.0 million in the initial period of debt service relief from April 14 to October 13, 2020.
  - The debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 (the maximum potential period of debt service relief) amounts to SDR 50.1 million.
- Letter of Intent (Annex 19.B) requests grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the CCRT to cover debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022, or as much as is available from resources.

### Key balance-of-payments figures (Table 2, Millions of U.S. Dollars)
- Current account balance (incl. official transfers): 2018: -756; 2019: -935; 2020: -1,728; 2021: -1,191; 2022: -1,243; 2023: -1,305; 2024: -1,360.
- Trade balance: 2018: -915; 2019: -1,072; 2020: -1,165; 2021: -1,359; 2022: -1,479; 2023: -1,446; 2024: -1,523.
- Exports (f.o.b.): 2018: 1,126; 2019: 1,167; 2020: 1,028; 2021: 1,370; 2022: 1,645; 2023: 1,757; 2024: 1,928.
  - Of which: coffee and tea: 2018: 159; 2019: 156; 2020: 140; 2021: 198; 2022: 229; 2023: 259; 2024: 295.
  - Of which: minerals: 2018: 142; 2019: 98; 2020: 60; 2021: 115; 2022: 129; 2023: 141; 2024: 156.
- Imports (f.o.b.): 2018: 2,041; 2019: 2,239; 2020: 2,193; 2021: 2,728; 2022: 3,124; 2023: 3,203; 2024: 3,451.
- Services (net): 2018: -186; 2019: -123; 2020: -538; 2021: -59; 2022: -31; 2023: -25; 2024: 40.

*Sources: Rwandan authorities and IMF staff estimates.*

### Annex 20.B. Letter of Intent—CCRT Request

### Annex 20.B. Letter of Intent—CCRT Request

### Context and purpose
- Date: April 6, 2020.
- Recipient: Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund.
- Purpose: Request for grant assistance under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) to cover Sierra Leone’s IMF debt service falling due in the 24-month period from April 14, 2020 to April 13, 2022, or as much as is available from resources.
- Authorization: The authorities authorize the IMF to publish this letter and all staff Board documents related to the request for debt relief from the CCRT.

### Economic impact and key quantitative projections
- Projected change in real GDP growth for 2020:
  - Decline by more than 6½ percentage points to almost -2½ percent.
- Fiscal and revenue effects:
  - Fall in tax revenues, together with additional critical health and social outlays, could be in the order of 2¼ percent of GDP.
  - Overall fiscal financing need could be around 2 percent of GDP.
- Balance of payments and reserves:
  - Emerging balance of payments need during 2020-2022 would be around US$120 million, or more than one-fifth of end-2019 official external reserves.
- External development partner support noted:
  - US$ 7.5 million World Bank support for the Covid-19 Preparedness and Response Project.

### Health sector response and containment measures
- Health expenditures planned:
  - Increase health sector outlays by some US$7-13 million (or 0.2-0.3 percent of GDP) over the course of 2020, depending on the spread of the virus.
- Public-health actions and preparedness:
  - Sierra Leone’s index case was confirmed last week; tracking is ongoing.
  - Activated Public Health Emergency Operations Center to Level 2.
  - Established dedicated call centers, contact tracing and disease surveillance, and pre-positioned testing, isolation, and treatment facilities.
- Containment and social measures:
  - Presidential declaration of a national state of emergency.
  - Measures include suspending incoming and outgoing regular passenger flights; closing land borders; discouraging gatherings of more than 100 people; and closing education institutions.
  - Plans to increase expenditure on social protection and support for the worst-affected sectors.

### Macro and financial measures
- Fiscal management:
  - Seeking to create budgetary space by suspending or curtailing outlays not essential to tackling the immediate crisis; reprioritization aims to support economic activity, particularly in the poorest areas.
  - Expectation that additional support from development partners will meet part of the fiscal financing need, with remaining financing from domestic sources.
- Monetary and banking sector measures:
  - Bank of Sierra Leone measures include a reduction in the monetary policy rate, creation of a special credit facility in support of importation of essential goods, and extension of the reserve requirement maintenance period.
- Intended use of IMF CCRT relief:
  - Debt relief would free up budgetary resources to enable addressing public health needs and supporting economic activity in key sectors, and help contain the exceptional balance of payments need resulting from the pandemic.

### Policy stance and further IMF engagement
- Commitment to macroeconomic stability:
  - Authorities will endeavor to maintain broad macroeconomic stability during the pandemic and in the post-pandemic recovery period.
- Potential additional IMF support:
  - Authorities are actively considering additional IMF support and indicate they will likely soon submit a request for support from the IMF’s emergency financing facilities based on further analysis.

### Signatories
- Jacob J. Saffa — Minister of Finance.
- Kelfala M. Kallon — Governor of Bank of Sierra Leone.

*Annex 20.B. Letter of Intent—CCRT Request, Sierra Leone; April 6, 2020.*

### 2020. Staff now project the tourism sector to decline by 65 percent and GDP by 6 percent in 2020,

### ppea2020022 - 2020. Staff now project the tourism sector to decline by 65 percent and GDP by 6 percent in 2020,

### Economic impact and projections
- Tourism sector: decline by 65 percent in 2020.
- Real GDP growth: projected to decline to -6.0 percent in 2020 (compared with pre-crisis projection of 3.5 percent).
- Sectoral effects:
  - Lowering demand for services such as transportation.
  - Construction affected by delays in externally financed projects.
- Balance of payments (BOP) impact:
  - BOP gap estimated at $24 million (close to 6 percent of GDP).
- Fiscal impact:
  - A large fiscal gap of $17 million, 4.2 percent of GDP, emerging from expected drop in fiscal revenue and increased health and social spending.
- National income and price projections (selected entries from Table 1):
  - GDP at constant prices (selected years): 3.5 (2019), -6.0 (2020), 5.5 (2021), 3.5 (2022), 4.0 (2023), 4.5 (2024).
  - GDP deflator (selected years): 3.5 (2019), 3.5 (2020), 3.0 (2021), 3.0 (2022), 2.9 (2023), 2.8 (2024).
  - Consumer prices, end of period (selected years): 10.0 (2019), 8.0 (2020), 6.0 (2021), 4.0 (2022), 3.0 (2023), 3.0 (2024).
  - Current account balance (percent of GDP) including official transfers: -12.5 (2019), -9.0 (2020), -11.8 (2021), -9.1 (2022), -8.7 (2023), -7.5 (2024).
  - Exports of goods and nonfactor services (annual percent change): -44.0 (2019), 62.7 (2020), 8.6 (2021), 12.4 (2022), 10.7 (2023).

### Fiscal and external financing gaps
- Fiscal gap: $17 million, 4.2 percent of GDP.
- BOP gap: $24 million (close to 6 percent of GDP).
- Domestic primary balance: projected to reach -5.6 percent of GDP in 2020 (compared with pre-COVID-19 projection of -1.7 percent).
- Financing needs and gaps (Table 2 / narrative):
  - Overall balance (commitment basis) moved from -0.3 to -4.5 percent of GDP in 2020 in staff projections.
  - Financing gap entries in balance of payments table show a financing gap of -24.2 (millions of U.S. dollars) for 2020 in one presentation.

### Macroeconomic policy response and measures
- Fiscal measures:
  - Implement COVID-19 contingency plan costed at $3 million (0.7 percent of GDP).
  - Expand a current WB-supported targeted cash-transfer program to cover additional vulnerable families.
  - Introduce countercyclical measures: incentives for businesses to retain workers, support for the unemployed, facilitate access to credit.
  - Keep retail fuel prices unchanged to generate revenue from lower international oil prices.
  - Introduce a small solidarity contribution on public servants.
  - Publish COVID-19 related spending monthly.
- Monetary and financial sector measures:
  - Monetary policy aims to safeguard the peg to the euro while alleviating liquidity pressures.
  - Possible reduction of reserve requirements.
  - Encourage banks to prudently restructure loans while ensuring loan reporting, classification, and provisioning standards are maintained.
- Fiscal transparency: fiscal transparency measures are being considered.

### IMF program status and requests
- Existing program: new 40-month ECF-supported program approved on October 2, 2019 in the amount of SDR 13.32 million (90 percent of quota).
- First review of the ECF program will commence once the crisis situation stabilizes.
- Country has requested support under the RCF in the amount of SDR 9.028 million (61 percent of quota).
- Request for CCRT grant assistance:
  - Request to cover debt service to the IMF falling due in the 24 months from April 14 to October 13, 2020 (amounts cited elsewhere: debt service of SDR 111,000 falling due in the initial period; debt service falling due in the 24 months amounts to SDR 697,712).
  - Staff supports the country’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
  - Country meets income threshold with GNI per capita of US$1890 in 2018 (below threshold of US$2350 for small states).
  - Staff assesses the country faces exceptional BOP needs stemming from COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies.

### Debt service, CCRT and debt relief details
- Outstanding debt service (initial period of debt service relief, April 14 to October 13, 2020): SDR 111,000.
- Debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 (maximum potential period): SDR 697,712.
- Table 3 (Debt Service to the IMF, as of March 30, 2020) shows cumulative eligible amounts up to SDR 998,996 across scheduled PRGT Repayments through 2022 (selected cumulative entries: 111,000; 248,428; 422,856; 697,712; 998,996).
- Letter of Intent (April 7, 2020) key numbers and statements:
  - Four initial COVID-19 cases confirmed on April 4.
  - BOP gap: US$24 million (6 percent of GDP and 60 percent of end-2019 official foreign reserves).
  - Domestic primary budget deficit expected to reach 5.6 percent of GDP in 2020 compared with pre-COVID-19 projections of 1.7 percent of GDP.
  - Requested CCRT CC window grant to cover debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14 to October 13, 2020.
  - Requested RCF support on the order of SDR 9.028 million (61 percent of quota).
  - Authorization for IMF to publish the letter and related staff Board documents.

### Key balance of payments and reserves indicators (selected figures)
- Exports, f.o.b. (US$ millions): 14.1 (2019), 19.7 (2020), 14.3 (2021), 18.6 (2022), 19.3 (2023), 21.6 (2024).
- Exports of nonfactor services (US$ millions): 100.9 (2020), 39.6 (2021), 69.2 (2022), 76.0 (2023), 85.6 (2024), 94.2 (2024 in another table layout).
- Of which: travel and tourism (US$ millions): 89.5 (2019), 23.3 (2020), 50.0 (2021), 55.8 (2022), 64.2 (2023), 71.5 (2024) (table entries reflect severe tourism contraction).
- Gross international reserves (Millions of U.S. dollars, excluding NOA and commercial bank deposits): 40.4 (2020), 40.0 (2021), 40.4 (2022), 45.8 (2023), 51.4 (2024), 53.7 (2024 alternative entry), 57.2 (later projection).
- Months of imports of goods and nonfactor services (selected): 4.7 (2020), 3.6 (2021), 4.1 (2022), 4.3 (2023), 4.6 (2024), 4.5 (2024 alternative).

### Staff appraisal and recommendations
- Staff supports debt relief under the CCRT given the country’s income level and exceptional BOP needs from COVID-19.
- Recommended policy mix:
  - Use CCRT debt relief to free up budgetary resources for public health needs and support economic activity, particularly tourism and informal sectors.
  - Combine donor support, domestic financing, and IMF instruments (ECF, RCF, CCRT) to meet fiscal and external financing needs.
  - Maintain program engagement with ECF and proceed with first review once crisis stabilizes.

*Source: São Tomé and Príncipe authorities' data and IMF staff estimates and projections.*

### Annex 23.A. Republic of Tajikistan: Staff Appraisal—CCRT

### Annex 23.A. Republic of Tajikistan: Staff Appraisal—CCRT

### Request and context
- Tajikistan has requested support under the Catastrophe Containment window of the CCRT due to exceptional balance of payments needs resulting from the impact of COVID-19.
- The authorities have also requested a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) to help cover the financing gap.

### Economic impact of COVID-19
- Border closures and disruption of transportation links have severely affected foreign trade and remittances, leading to a decline in economic activity and loss of fiscal revenues.
- Growth projection:
  - Pre-COVID-19 baseline: 4¾ percent.
  - Expected 2020 growth: between 1 and -4 percent.
- Fiscal impact:
  - Expected increase in the primary budget deficit: of the order of 2-5 percent of GDP.
  - Deterioration in external and fiscal positions has led to a large fiscal and external financing gap in 2020, with preliminary estimates ranging between $150 - $400 million.
- Exchange rate and external pressures:
  - Exchange rate pressures have intensified.
  - NBT depreciated the official exchange rate by 5 percent.

### Macroeconomic policy response
- National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) actions:
  - Hiked the policy rate by 50 basis points to 12.75 percent in February.
  - Provided FX liquidity to banks.
  - Depreciated the official exchange rate by 5 percent.
- Fiscal and administrative measures under consideration or underway:
  - Action plan to mitigate the impact of the virus.
  - Considering tax relief to small and medium businesses.
  - Stepping up social transfers.
  - Cuts to non-priority spending are under consideration.
  - Various international partners approached for emergency financing support.
- Authorities’ plans (from Letter of Intent):
  - Increase health sector and other vulnerable sector outlays by some 1.9 percent of GDP over the course of 2020.
  - Key measures including expenditures of 130 m USD on preparation of health care facilities, disinfection facilities, and procurement of personal protective equipment and medicines.
  - Increase expenditure on social protection, unemployment benefits, and support for vulnerable and badly affected sectors.
  - Suspend or sharply curtail outlays not essential to tackling the immediate crisis (including non-health capital expenditure).
  - Expect an increase in the primary budget deficit on the order of 2-5 percent of GDP.
  - Preliminary discussions on possible support underway with the World Bank Group, the Eurasian Fund for Stability and Development, and the Asian Development Bank.
  - Monetary policy stance: maintain a tightening bias; allow exchange rate adjustment if warranted while using FX intervention to prevent excessive depreciation.

### IMF program status and conditions for RCF disbursement
- Tajikistan requested RCF support (request on the order of SDR 140 million (80 percent of quota) as per Letter of Intent).
- Tajikistan’s public debt was assessed as unsustainable on current policies during the 2019 Article IV consultation.
- Policy discussions with the authorities on the RCF are underway.
- RCF access level subject to further clarification as estimates of the potential financing gap remain wide and likely contributions from other external partners are being clarified.
- Credible and specific commitments on fiscal consolidation measures sufficient to restore a sustainable debt trajectory are being sought by staff to proceed with RCF disbursement.

### Staff appraisal and eligibility for CCRT relief
- Staff supports Tajikistan’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
- Eligibility criteria met:
  - GNI per capita: US$1,010 (below the threshold of US$1,175).
  - Staff assesses that the country faces exceptional BOP needs stemming from COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the disaster.

### Upcoming debt service to the IMF and CCRT support recommended
- Eligible debt to the Fund for the period April 14 to October 13, 2020: SDR 7.8 million.
- Eligible debt falling due in the 12 months from April 14, 2020: SDR 13 million.
- Debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 (maximum potential period): SDR 19.6 million.
- Staff supports authorities’ request for debt service relief for amounts falling due to the Fund up to October 13, 2020, amounting to SDR 7.8 million.

### Key quantitative indicators and projections (selected)
- Real GDP growth (annual percent change):
  - 2019: 7.5
  - 2020: 1.0 (Est.)
  - 2021: 5.5 (Proj.)
  - 2022–2025: 4.5; 4.0; 4.0; 4.0 (Proj.)
- Headline CPI inflation (period average):
  - 2019: 7.8
  - 2020: 8.1
  - 2021–2025: 6.9; 6.5; 6.5; 6.5; 6.5
- General government revenue and grants (percent of GDP):
  - 2019: 27.4
  - 2020: 26.3
  - 2021–2025: 26.6; 27.0; 27.1; 27.3; 27.2
- General government expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP):
  - 2019: 29.5
  - 2020: 32.7
  - 2021–2025: 29.6; 29.4; 29.6; 29.7; 29.6
- Overall balance (incl. PIP and stat. discrepancy) (percent of GDP):
  - 2019: -2.1
  - 2020: -6.4
  - 2021–2025: -3.0; -2.5; -2.5; -2.4; -2.4
- Total public and publicly-guaranteed debt (percent of GDP):
  - 2019: 44.6
  - 2020: 51.8
  - 2021–2025: 51.3; 50.8; 50.7; 50.5; 50.3
- Current account balance (percent of GDP):
  - 2019: -3.3
  - 2020: -7.7
  - 2021–2025: -4.5; -4.4; -4.2; -4.1; -4.0
- Gross official reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - 2019: 1,464
  - 2020: 1,246
  - 2021–2025: 1,235; 1,245; 1,255; 1,277; 1,317
- Exports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - 2019: 1,272
  - 2020: 1,158
  - 2021–2025: 1,309; 1,437; 1,546; 1,661; 1,783
- Imports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - 2019: -3,322
  - 2020: -3,227
  - 2021–2025: -3,391; -3,602; -3,800; -4,003; -4,211
- Current account balance (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - 2019: -271
  - 2020: -622
  - 2021–2025: -378; -393; -392; -398; -409
- Nominal GDP (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - 2019: 8,110
  - 2020: 8,076
  - 2021–2025: 8,396; 8,857; 9,305; 9,783; 10,315
- Remittances, inflows (in millions of U.S. dollars):
  - 2019: 2,305
  - 2020: 2,011
  - 2021–2025: 2,218; 2,312; 2,435; 2,567; 2,679

*Sources: Data provided by the Tajikistan authorities, and Fund staff estimates; Annex 23.A and Annex 23.B (Letter of Intent).*

### Annex 24.A. Togo: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Annex 24.A. Togo: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request

### Economic impact
- Togo faces exceptional balance of payments needs resulting from the impact of COVID-19 and has requested support under the Catastrophe Containment window of the CCRT.
- Vulnerabilities noted: position as a regional logistical hub, strong trade ties with China and the European Union, and low preparedness.
- Economic activity affected on supply and demand sides: airport and port activities most affected; containment measures and uncertainty weighing on consumption and investment.
- Growth and fiscal/BOP implications:
  - Economic growth in 2020 is projected to decelerate to 3 percent, compared with a projection of 5.5 percent before COVID-19.
  - Budgetary implications of higher healthcare costs and lower revenue collection are estimated at about 1.7 percent of GDP.
  - Balance of payments financing need is projected at about US$130 million (or about 2 percent of GDP).

### Macroeconomic policies and response
- Authorities plan to increase health sector outlays by about 1.5 percent of GDP over the course of 2020, with key measures already underway.
- Considerations include reprioritizing spending to address rapidly rising needs and supporting hard-hit sectors facing income losses; suspending or curtailing outlays not seen as essential to tackling the immediate crisis.
- Regional central bank (BCEAO) actions:
  - Raised liquidity made available to banks, allowing average refinancing rates to remain relatively close to the floor of the monetary policy corridor.
  - Adopted a full allotment strategy allowing banks to satisfy liquidity needs fully at a lower rate.
  - Extended the collateral framework to access central bank refinancing to include bank loans to prequalified private companies.
- Authorities are also discussing support from other development partners.

### IMF program status
- A three-year ECF arrangement was approved in May 2017 with total disbursements of SDR 176.16 million (120 percent of quota at the time of approval).
- The sixth and last review was approved on April 3, 2020, together with an augmentation of access to address the impact of COVID-19 amounting to 48.7 percent of quota or SDR 71.49 million.
- The authorities expressed interest in discussing a successor IMF-supported program.

### Staff appraisal
- Staff supports Togo’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
- Eligibility and assessment:
  - Togo meets the income threshold with GNI per capita of US$650, below the threshold of US$1,175.
  - Staff assesses that Togo faces exceptional balance of payments needs stemming from the impact of COVID-19 and is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the disaster.

### Upcoming debt service
- Debt service falling due in the initial period of the debt service relief from April 14 to October 13, 2020: SDR 3.74 million.
- Debt service falling due in the 24 months from April 14, 2020 (the maximum potential period of debt service relief, subject to availability of resources and decisions of the Executive Board): SDR 6.93 million.

### Selected economic and external indicators (highlights from tables)
- Real GDP (percent change): 2019 5.3, 2020 3.0, 2021 4.0, 2022 5.5.
- GDP deflator (percent): 2019 2.1, 2020 4.6, 2021 4.4, 2022 2.9.
- Consumer price index (average): 2019 0.7, 2020 2.0, 2021 2.0, 2022 2.0.
- GDP (CFAF billions): 2019 3,199; 2020 3,446; 2021 3,742; 2022 4,062.
- Total revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2019 23.4, 2020 23.8, 2021 24.1, 2022 24.3.
- Total expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP): 2019 24.5, 2020 27.4, 2021 25.4, 2022 25.5.
- Overall balance (commitment basis, incl. grants) (percent of GDP): 2019 -1.2, 2020 -3.6, 2021 -1.5, 2022 -1.4.
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2019 -4.2, 2020 -4.9, 2021 -4.3, 2022 -4.4.
- Exports (goods and services) (percent of GDP): 2019 31.8, 2020 28.4, 2021 28.4, 2022 28.5.
- Imports (goods and services) (percent of GDP): 2019 -43.5, 2020 -41.3, 2021 -40.7, 2022 -40.8.
- External public debt (percent of GDP): 2019 23.7, 2020 25.2, 2021 24.5, 2022 23.8.
- Total public debt (percent of GDP): 2019 70.9, 2020 67.1, 2021 63.1, 2022 59.3.

*Source: IMF staff and Togolese authorities as presented in Annex 24.A. Togo: Staff Appraisal—CCRT Request.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/pp/2020/english/ppea2020022.pdf_