## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (ppea2020045)

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### Recent developments: COVID-19 pandemic and CCRT debt service relief
- On March 26, 2020, the Executive Board approved changes to the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) to enable the Fund to provide debt relief for its poorest and most vulnerable members in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Scope and prior action:
  - Support for all 29 CCRT-eligible member countries with eligible debt service has been approved; 28 countries benefitted from the first tranche covering all debt service to the Fund falling due during the ensuing six months.
  - Chad did not have eligible debt service falling due during the first period from April 14 to October 13, 2020.
  - At the time of issuance, approval of the second tranche is not proposed for Mali owing to lack of clarity as to whether the international community recognizes/deals with the current military regime as the government of Mali; Mali’s next payment to the Fund is due on December 9, 2020.
- Human and economic toll:
  - 29 CCRT-eligible members with debt to the Fund have cumulatively lodged over 254 thousand cases, and associated deaths have risen over 5,209 (data as of September 10, 2020).
  - Latest WEO projections: projected growth in CCRT-eligible countries in 2020 adjusted from +4.7 percent to -1.4 percent since January.
- First-tranche relief:
  - The Executive Board approved the first tranche of grant-based debt service relief for all CCRT-eligible countries with eligible debt service falling due during April 14–October 13, 2020.
  - The CCRT covered all debt service to the Fund of 28 eligible low-income countries falling due during April 14 - October 13, 2020, totaling about SDR 183 million.

### CCRT-eligible countries: policy response and staff assessment
- Macroeconomic impact and projections:
  - Real GDP growth in CCRT-eligible members is now expected to decline by 1.4 percent in 2020, with recovery in 2021 expected to be weak.
  - General government revenues (excluding grants) in 2020 have fallen, on average, by some 2.7 percentage points of GDP relative to pre-pandemic projections.
  - Fiscal deficits are expected, on average, to be some 2.3 percent of GDP higher than in pre-pandemic projections.
  - Projected gross financing needs and external debt in 2020 are estimated to increase by 3.5 and 3.7 percentage points of GDP, respectively (for the two thirds of countries for which GFNs worsen).
- Use of resources and fiscal priorities:
  - Countries have re-prioritized expenditures and reduced interest costs; on average projected 2020 priority spending boosted by some 1.2 percentage points of GDP relative to pre-COVID projections.
  - Outlays on health and social protection each increased, on average, by about 0.5 percentage points of GDP.
  - Other COVID-related spending is projected to reach 2.0 percent of GDP, led by support for households (support for households 0.9 percent of GDP; prevention & containment 0.8 percent of GDP; support for business 0.7 percent of GDP; note subcomponents may be missing for some countries).
- Governance and transparency measures:
  - Measures implemented include: monthly or quarterly COVID-19 expenditure reporting; periodic and ex post audit of COVID-19 spending and publication of results; publication of procurement information including beneficial ownership for COVID-19-related contracts above thresholds; establishment of oversight committees and dedicated accounts.
- IMF financial support beyond the CCRT:
  - Since the start of the pandemic, the IMF has provided SDR 2.8 billion in concessional lending to 25 CCRT-eligible countries: 23 received support through the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), and three countries (Benin, Sao Tome and Principe, and Togo) received augmented support under existing lending arrangements.
- Staff assessment:
  - Staff assesses that CCRT-eligible countries are generally pursuing sensible macroeconomic policies in response to the pandemic.
  - Staff assesses that resources freed by the initial tranche of Fund debt service relief under the CCRT are being used to help provide emergency health, social and economic support to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on life and livelihood.

### Funding status of the CCRT and proposal for second tranche of debt relief
- Fundraising progress and contributions (as of September 14, 2020):
  - The Fund has received grant pledges of just over one third of the SDR 1 billion fundraising target.
  - Thirteen members have pledged about SDR 360 million in grants, of which SDR 235 million had been disbursed as of September 14, 2020.
  - Notable contributions and status (pledge / currency):
    - United Kingdom: SDR 136.3 (£150) — Partially disbursed.
    - Japan: SDR 73.4 ($100) — Disbursed.
    - Germany: SDR 66.2 (€80) — Partially disbursed.
    - Netherlands: SDR 20.9 (€25) — Partially disbursed.
    - Switzerland: SDR 19.5 (CHF 25) — Disbursed.
    - Norway: SDR 14.5 (NOK 180) — Disbursed.
    - China: SDR 5.6 — Disbursed.
    - Mexico: SDR 2.9 ($4) — Disbursed.
    - Sweden: SDR 2.4 (SEK 30) — Disbursed.
    - Bulgaria: SDR 1.9 — Disbursed.
    - Luxembourg: SDR 1.7 (€2) — Disbursed.
    - Malta: SDR 0.6 ($0.8) — Pledge.
    - Other(s): SDR 12.4 ($17.6) — Pledge.
  - Total pledged: SDR 358.2 (target SDR 1 billion).
- Availability to cover second tranche and staff recommendation:
  - Staff assesses available resources and pledges to be sufficient to finance a second six-month tranche of debt service relief.
  - With total grant pledges (SDR 360 million) already disbursed or about to be disbursed covering both the first and second six-month debt relief periods (amounting to SDR 183 million and SDR 168 million respectively), staff considers overall resources adequate for the second CCRT tranche while maintaining a small resource cushion for other potential CCRT-qualifying shocks.
  - Cash-balance estimates:
    - The CCRT’s cash balances amounted to SDR 202 million as of September 14, 2020.
    - Barring additional CCRT requests and assuming full disbursement of all existing pledges, the CCRT’s cash balance is projected to be SDR 157 million at the end of a second six-month debt relief period, slightly above the pre-COVID balance of SDR 150 million.
    - This amount remains less than the original (pre-COVID) CCRT underfunding estimated at between SDR 200-275 million.
  - Staff recommends approval of the disbursement of a second 6-month tranche of CCRT debt service relief to 28 of the 29 members, covering the period October 14, 2020 through April 13, 2021, given staff’s assessment that sufficient financial resources are available.
- Limits and outlook:
  - Based on grant pledges to date, resources are not sufficient to extend CCRT relief beyond the proposed second six-month period.
  - Future tranches will be considered by the Executive Board, up to a maximum of two years from the original determination (April 14, 2020), taking into account the availability of CCRT resources and the likely need of other potentially qualifying members.
  - Significant additional grant pledges will be required to move close to the original funding target of SDR 1 billion and unlock a possible third tranche.

*Prepared by the Finance Department, the Legal Department, and the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department; approved by Andrew Tweedie, Rhoda Weeks-Brown, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.*

### Annex country updates — selected highlights and key statistics
- Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (Annex I):
  - Output: Staff expects output to contract by 5 percent in 2020 (pre-COVID projection: 3.5 percent growth).
  - Inflation: expected to moderate to an annual 5 percent by end-year.
  - Tax revenue fell by 18 percent through end-June 2020 vs. same period 2019.
  - Fiscal deficit expected to widen to 2.8 percent of GDP (pre-COVID: 0.8 percent).
  - Balance of payments deficit estimated at about US$570 million (3 percent of GDP) in 2020.
  - IMF support: RCF disbursement SDR 161.9 million (about US$220 million; 50 percent of quota); proposed ECF SDR 259 million (about US$364 million; 80 percent of quota).
  - Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service (Oct 14, 2020–Apr 13, 2021): SDR 2.4 million.
  - Selected key stats (preserved): Real GDP (2020 projection): -5.0; Pre-COVID projection: 3.5; Nominal GDP: 19.0 (billions of U.S. dollars); Consumer prices (end of period, 2020): 5.0 (percent); COVID-related spending through June: 1.3 percent of GDP; Total COVID-related expenditure in 2020: 2.9 percent of GDP; Donor grants in 2020: 3.2 percent of GDP.
- Burundi (Annex IV):
  - 2020 growth projection revised to -3.2 percent (down 5.3 percentage points).
  - Current account deficit including grants expected to grow to 20.7 percent of GDP.
  - Tax revenue expected to drop to 17.0 percent of GDP.
  - Spending projected to rise by 3.4 percent of GDP; fiscal deficit including grants expected to rise to 9.5 percent of GDP.
  - IMF CCRT grant covering July 21, 2020–October 13, 2020: SDR 5.48 million.
  - Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service (Oct 14, 2020–Apr 13, 2021): SDR 4.82 million.
  - Key indicator excerpt (preserved): Real GDP (2020 Proj.): -3.2; Overall balance (2020 Proj.): -9.5 (percent of GDP); Public gross nominal debt (2020 Proj.): 65.1 (percent of GDP).
- Union of the Comoros (Annex VII):
  - 2020 growth projection: -1.8 percent (from -1.2 percent).
  - Executive Board approved emergency support on April 22, 2020: RCF SDR2.97 million (16.7 percent of quota); RFI SDR5.93 million (33.3 percent of quota).
  - Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service (Oct 14, 2020–Apr 13, 2021): SDR 0.8 million.
  - Selected indicators preserved (examples): Real GDP (2020 projection): -1.8; Gross international reserves (Current 2020): 221.7 (millions of U.S. dollars).
- Ethiopia (Annex X):
  - Real GDP growth revised to 1.9 percent (2019/20) and 0 percent (2020/21).
  - COVID-19 related expenditures in FY2019/20: 1.6 percent of GDP.
  - RFI assistance approved: SDR 300.7 million (100 percent of quota).
  - Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service (Oct 14, 2020–Apr 13, 2021): SDR 4.489 million.
- Guinea (Annex XII):
  - 2020 growth expected to decelerate to 1.4 percent (from 5.8 percent pre-pandemic).
  - COVID-19 Response plan budgetary cost: US$203 million (about 1.5 percent of GDP); additional phase US$50 million (0.34 percent of GDP).
  - Health spending increase projected 0.8 percent of GDP in 2020.
  - Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service (Oct 14, 2020–Apr 13, 2021): SDR 16.4 million.
  - Key indicators preserved: Real GDP 2020 (prel.): 1.4; 2021 (proj.): 6.6.
- Liberia (Annex XV):
  - 2020 growth revised to -3.0 percent (from 1.4 percent).
  - FY2019/20 domestic revenue: 13.6 percent of GDP (down from pre-COVID 14.9 percent).
  - COVID-19 related expenditure increase in 2020: 5.1 percent of GDP; emergency food aid and cash transfers: 3.1 percent of GDP.
  - RCF disbursement: SDR 36.176 million (US$50 million).
  - Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service (Oct 14, 2020–Apr 13, 2021): SDR 11.19 million.
- Mozambique (Annex XVIII):
  - Real GDP: 2020 projected -0.5 percent; 2021 projected 2.1 percent.
  - Fiscal primary deficit projected to widen to 3.8 percent of GDP.
  - Fiscal package equivalent to 3.5 percent of GDP (Health 0.7; Transfers 1.6; SMEs 1.1).
  - RCF disbursement: US$309 million on April 24, 2020.
  - Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service (Oct 14, 2020–Apr 13, 2021): SDR 9.5 million.
  - Selected indicators preserved: Real GDP (2020 Proj. Current): -0.5; Nominal GDP (2020): 1,084 (billions of meticais).
- Niger (Annex XX):
  - 2020 real GDP growth likely 0.5 percent; 2021 expected 6.8 percent.
  - Fiscal deficit expected to widen to 4.8 percent of GDP in 2020.
  - Supplementary budget additional spending: 0.8 percent of GDP; credit promotion scheme of 1.9 percent of GDP backstopped by guarantees.
  - ECF arrangement in place: SDR118.44 million (90 percent of quota); RCF emergency assistance: SDR83.66 million.
  - Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service (Oct 14, 2020–Apr 13, 2021): SDR 5.64 million.
- São Tomé and Príncipe (Annex XXII):
  - Real GDP growth in 2020 projected to decline to –6.5 percent (pre-pandemic: +3.5 percent).
  - Fiscal need: $20.6 million (5.1 percent of GDP); balance of payments gap: $22.1 million (5.5 percent of GDP).
  - Total COVID-related fiscal measures revised to 3.1 percent of GDP.
  - ECF arrangement: SDR 13.32 million (90 percent of quota); RCF disbursement in April 2020.
  - Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service: initial period SDR 111,000; Oct 14, 2020–Apr 13, 2021: SDR 174,428.
- Solomon Islands (Annex XXIV):
  - Real GDP 2020 projected -5.5 percent; 2021 projected rebound 5.6 percent.
  - Fiscal deficit projected to widen to 5.8 percent of GDP.
  - Fiscal stimulus package: SI$319 million (2.6 percent of GDP); health and containment spending SI$137 million (1.1 percent of GDP).
  - RCF/RFI support approved June 1, 2020: SDR 20.8 million (about US$28.5 million, 100 percent of quota).
  - Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service (Oct 14, 2020–Apr 13, 2021): SDR 0.074 million.
  - Key indicators preserved: Cash balance post-COVID (2020 proj): 206 (SI$ millions); Current account balance (2020 proj): -271.1 (US$ millions).
- Togo (Annex XXVII):
  - Growth projections revised to 0 in 2020 (from 5.5 percent) and 3 percent in 2021.
  - Budget deficit in 2020 expected to widen to about 8 percent of GDP (from 2 percent pre-COVID).
  - Total COVID-related fiscal measures: Pre-Covid 6.2; Current 12.1; Change 5.9 (percent of GDP).
  - Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service (Oct 14, 2020–Apr 13, 2021): SDR 2.31 million.

*Prepared by the Finance Department, the Legal Department, and the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department; approved by Andrew Tweedie, Rhoda Weeks-Brown, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.*

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

### Recent developments: COVID-19 pandemic and CCRT debt service relief
- On March 26, 2020, the Executive Board approved changes to the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) to enable the Fund to provide debt relief for its poorest and most vulnerable members in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Scope and prior action:
  - Support for all 29 CCRT-eligible member countries with eligible debt service has been approved; 28 countries benefitted from the first tranche covering all debt service to the Fund falling due during the ensuing six months.
  - Chad did not have eligible debt service falling due during the first period from April 14 to October 13, 2020.
  - At the time of issuance, approval of the second tranche is not proposed for Mali owing to lack of clarity as to whether the international community recognizes/deals with the current military regime as the government of Mali; Mali’s next payment to the Fund is due on December 9, 2020.
- Human and economic toll:
  - 29 CCRT-eligible members with debt to the Fund have cumulatively lodged over 254 thousand cases, and associated deaths have risen over 5,209 (Figure 1, data as of September 10, 2020).
  - According to the latest WEO projections, projected growth in CCRT-eligible countries in 2020 has been adjusted downwards from +4.7 percent to -1.4 percent since January.
- First-tranche relief:
  - The Executive Board approved the first tranche of grant-based debt service relief for all CCRT-eligible countries with eligible debt service falling due during April 14–October 13, 2020.
  - The CCRT covered all debt service to the Fund of 28 eligible low-income countries falling due during April 14 - October 13, 2020, totaling about SDR 183 million.

### CCRT-eligible countries: policy response and staff assessment
- Macroeconomic impact and projections:
  - Real GDP growth in CCRT-eligible members is now expected to decline by 1.4 percent in 2020, with recovery in 2021 expected to be weak.
  - Current projections for general government revenues (excluding grants) in 2020 have fallen, on average, by some 2.7 percentage points of GDP relative to pre-pandemic projections.
  - Fiscal deficits are expected, on average, to be some 2.3 percent of GDP higher than in pre-pandemic projections.
  - On the external side, projected gross financing needs and external debt in 2020 are estimated to increase by 3.5 and 3.7 percentage points of GDP, respectively (for the two thirds of countries for which GFNs worsen).
- Use of resources and fiscal priorities:
  - CCRT-eligible members have re-prioritized expenditures and reduced interest costs; on average these countries have boosted projected 2020 (fiscal or calendar year) priority spending relative to pre-COVID projections by some 1.2 percentage points of GDP.
  - Outlays on health and social protection each increased, on average, by about 0.5 percentage points of GDP.
  - Spending on education increased on average for half the countries; in other countries education spending came under pressure.
  - Other COVID-related spending is projected to reach 2.0 percent of GDP, led by support for households (support for households 0.9 percent of GDP; prevention & containment 0.8 percent of GDP; support for business 0.7 percent of GDP; note subcomponents may be missing for some countries).
- Governance and transparency measures:
  - Countries have implemented measures including: monthly or quarterly COVID-19 expenditure reporting; periodic and ex post audit of COVID-19 spending and publication of results; publication of procurement information including beneficial ownership for COVID-19-related contracts above thresholds; and establishment of oversight committees and dedicated accounts.
  - Several countries use high-level steering committees to monitor COVID-19 spending; many are receiving technical assistance to upgrade emergency spending frameworks and PFM systems.
- IMF financial support beyond the CCRT:
  - Since the start of the pandemic, the IMF has provided SDR 2.8 billion in concessional lending to 25 CCRT-eligible countries: 23 received support through the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), and three countries (Benin, Sao Tome and Principe, and Togo) received augmented support under existing lending arrangements.
- Staff assessment:
  - Staff assesses that CCRT-eligible countries are generally pursuing sensible macroeconomic policies in response to the pandemic.
  - Staff assesses that resources freed by the initial tranche of Fund debt service relief under the CCRT are being used to help provide emergency health, social and economic support to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on life and livelihood.

### Funding status of the CCRT and proposal for second tranche of debt relief
- Fundraising progress and contributions (as of September 14, 2020):
  - The Fund has received grant pledges of just over one third of the SDR 1 billion fundraising target.
  - Thirteen members have pledged about SDR 360 million in grants, of which SDR 235 million had been disbursed as of September 14, 2020.
  - Notable contributions and status:
    - United Kingdom: SDR 136.3 (£150) — Partially disbursed.
    - Japan: SDR 73.4 ($100) — Disbursed.
    - Germany: SDR 66.2 (€80) — Partially disbursed.
    - Netherlands: SDR 20.9 (€25) — Partially disbursed.
    - Switzerland: SDR 19.5 (CHF 25) — Disbursed.
    - Norway: SDR 14.5 (NOK 180) — Disbursed.
    - China: SDR 5.6 — Disbursed.
    - Mexico: SDR 2.9 ($4) — Disbursed.
    - Sweden: SDR 2.4 (SEK 30) — Disbursed.
    - Bulgaria: SDR 1.9 — Disbursed.
    - Luxembourg: SDR 1.7 (€2) — Disbursed.
    - Malta: SDR 0.6 ($0.8) — Pledge.
    - Other(s): SDR 12.4 ($17.6) — Pledge.
  - Total pledged: SDR 358.2 (In millions of SDRs, total reported as SDR 358.2; target SDR 1 billion).
- Availability to cover second tranche and staff recommendation:
  - Staff assesses available resources and pledges to be sufficient to finance a second six-month tranche of debt service relief.
  - With total grant pledges (SDR 360 million) already disbursed or about to be disbursed covering both the first and second six-month debt relief periods (amounting to SDR 183 million and SDR 168 million respectively), staff considers overall resources adequate for the second CCRT tranche while maintaining a small resource cushion for other potential CCRT-qualifying shocks.
  - Specific cash-balance estimates:
    - The CCRT’s cash balances amounted to SDR 202 million as of September 14, 2020.
    - Barring additional CCRT requests and assuming full disbursement of all existing pledges, the CCRT’s cash balance is projected to be SDR 157 million at the end of a second six-month debt relief period, slightly above the pre-COVID balance of SDR 150 million.
    - This amount remains less than the original (pre-COVID) CCRT underfunding estimated at between SDR 200-275 million.
  - Staff recommends approval of the disbursement of a second 6-month tranche of CCRT debt service relief to 28 of the 29 members, covering the period October 14, 2020 through April 13, 2021, given staff’s assessment that sufficient financial resources are available.
- Limits and outlook:
  - Based on grant pledges to date, resources are not sufficient to extend CCRT relief beyond the proposed second six-month period.
  - Future tranches will be considered by the Executive Board, up to a maximum of two years from the original determination (April 14, 2020), taking into account the availability of CCRT resources and the likely need of other potentially qualifying members.
  - Significant additional grant pledges will be required to move close to the original funding target of SDR 1 billion and unlock a possible third tranche.

*Prepared by the Finance Department, the Legal Department, and the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department; approved by Andrew Tweedie, Rhoda Weeks-Brown, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.*

### Annex I. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Update for CCRT Debt

### Annex I. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Recent Economic Developments
- COVID-19 led to a collapse in economic activity in the second quarter; with easing of containment measures in late May, activity is regaining footing and "could return close to the pre-pandemic level in the fourth quarter" assuming no resurgence of infections.
- Staff expects output to contract by 5 percent in 2020, as opposed to 3½ percent growth projected pre-pandemic.
- Job and income losses are "pushing thousands of Afghan families into poverty" and threaten to reverse social gains.
- Inflation spiked in the first half of 2020 due to border closures and panic buying but is expected to moderate to an annual 5 percent by end-year thanks to the re-opening of borders in early June and a good harvest.
- Tax revenue fell by 18 percent through end-June compared to the same period of 2019 due to the economic downturn and the extension of first quarter tax filing and payment deadlines.
- Revenue losses and COVID-related spending are worsening the fiscal deficit, which is expected to widen to 2.8 percent of GDP (compared to a deficit of 0.8 percent of GDP projected pre-COVID).
- Disruption of exports and a projected fall in remittances—with thousands of Afghan migrants returning—are opening a balance of payments deficit estimated at about US$570 million (3 percent of GDP) in 2020, below April projections due to a larger decline in imports.

### Public health and macroeconomic policy response
- Monetary policy effectiveness is limited; fiscal measures were mobilized.
- Through June, authorities allocated about 1.3 percent of GDP spending for COVID-related needs.
- Total COVID-related expenditure in 2020 is expected to amount to 2.9 percent of GDP, including:
  - Health package, including building hospitals: 0.4 percent of GDP
  - Social package, including the now concluded bread distribution program and the social distribution program financed by the World Bank approved on August 4: 1.6 percent of GDP
  - Package to support agriculture (under implementation): 0.4 percent of GDP
- Donor support (new and reallocated grants) is expected to amount to 3.2 percent of GDP in 2020.
- Authorities are also curtailing lower priority spending and introducing nontax measures to contain deficit deterioration.

### Governance safeguards
- Authorities are commencing preparation of quarterly reports on pandemic-related spending.
- The Supreme Audit Council will undertake audits of selected COVID-19 spending in FY2020 and publish its reports by a revised deadline of June 2021.
- Authorities plan to amend procurement procedures to publish beneficial ownership information of all entities contracting with the government on the online portal of the National Procurement Agency.

### IMF support
- In April, the Executive Board approved a disbursement of SDR 161.9 million (about US$220 million; 50 percent of quota) under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF).
- On August 12, 2020, IMF staff reached a staff-level agreement with the Afghanistan authorities on a three-and-half year Extended Credit Facility arrangement of SDR 259 million (about US$364 million; 80 percent of quota). Executive Board consideration of this request is expected by late October.

### Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service
- Afghanistan has debt service of SDR 2.4 million falling due during the six-month interval from October 14, 2020 to April 13, 2021, the maximum period covered by the second tranche of debt service relief under the CCRT.

### Staff assessment
- Authorities have rightly focused on mitigating the social and economic fallout and preparing the ground for a durable recovery.
- Allowing fiscal loosening in 2020 is appropriate; authorities have sought donor grants to accommodate revenue shortfalls and fund critical health and social mitigation spending while putting in place governance safeguards.
- Resources freed by Fund debt service relief under the CCRT and other Fund support are helping create room for emergency health, social, and support-to-economy measures.

### Selected key statistics (from source)
- Real GDP (2020 projection): -5.0 (annual percentage change)
- Pre-COVID projection for 2020 real GDP: 3.5 (annual percentage change)
- Nominal GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars): 19.0 (2020 proj)
- Consumer prices (end of period, 2020): 5.0 (percent)
- Tax revenue fall through end-June 2020 vs. same period 2019: 18 percent
- Fiscal deficit (overall balance including grants, 2020 projection): -2.8 (percent of GDP)
- COVID-related spending through June: 1.3 percent of GDP
- Total COVID-related expenditure in 2020: 2.9 percent of GDP
- Donor grants (new and reallocated) in 2020: 3.2 percent of GDP
- COVID spending breakdown (percent of GDP): Health 0.4; Social 1.6; Agriculture support 0.4
- Balance of payments deficit (2020 estimate): US$570 million (3 percent of GDP)
- RCF disbursement: SDR 161.9 million (about US$220 million; 50 percent of quota)
- Proposed ECF arrangement: SDR 259 million (about US$364 million; 80 percent of quota)
- CCRT-eligible debt service in Oct 14, 2020–Apr 13, 2021 window: SDR 2.4 million

*International Monetary Fund*

### Annex IV. Burundi: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Annex IV. Burundi: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Recent economic developments
- Economic growth projections have been revised down by 5.3 percentage points to -3.2 percent in 2020.
- The pandemic has created large external financing needs from lower exports, elevated imports in part related to pandemic-related fiscal spending, and reduced remittances inflows.
- The current account deficit including grants is expected to grow to 20.7 percent of GDP, putting pressure on already low reserves.
- Tax revenue is expected to drop to 17.0 percent of GDP (from 17.4 percent of the higher pre-pandemic GDP projection).
- Spending is projected to rise by 3.4 percent of GDP.
- As a result the fiscal deficit including grants is expected to rise to 9.5 percent of GDP.
- Several adverse pandemic effects are expected to persist in 2021.

### Public health and macroeconomic policy response
- Border and testing measures:
  - Authorities quarantined travelers from affected countries and closed the borders except for merchandise trade, humanitarian, and medical travel and transport.
  - Since July, they have stepped up COVID testing, building on a renewed close collaboration with the WHO.
- Pandemic response plan:
  - Focuses on strengthening the health care system, the social safety net, and parts of the road network to facilitate access to sick people.
  - Cost: US$150 million (4.7 percent of GDP).
- Targeted sector support:
  - Authorities intend to provide targeted support to hard-hit sectors.
  - Cost: US$12 million (0.4 percent of GDP).
- Financing of measures:
  - To be financed in part by cutting back on public investment and external support.
  - So far, COVID-related financial support comprises a US$5 million grant from the World Bank and IMF CCRT grants.
  - A lack of external support has constrained implementation of the authorities’ COVID response plans.

### Governance safeguards
- Authorities committed, in the context of the original CCRT request, to making the best possible use of the funds provided in the context of COVID-19.
- The Court of Auditors, in consultation with the development partners concerned, will undertake and publish an ex post audit of expenses related to COVID-19 on the government’s website within 9 months after the end of the fiscal year.
- With the first tranche of CCRT grants having been provided only in late July 2020, it is too early to assess implementation.

### IMF support status
- The Executive Board approved on July 20, 2020, a grant under the IMF’s Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) to cover Burundi’s debt service falling due to the IMF from July 21, 2020 to October 13, 2020, the equivalent of SDR 5.48 million.
- In April 2020 the authorities requested emergency assistance through the Rapid Credit Facility.
- Burundi currently has no Fund-supported program.

### Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service
- Burundi has debt service of SDR 4.82 million falling due to the Fund during the 6-month interval from October 14, 2020 to April 13, 2021, the maximum period covered by the 2nd tranche of debt service relief under the CCRT.

### Staff assessment
- Staff assesses that Burundi is pursuing broadly appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the impact of the pandemic.
- The authorities have appropriately committed to use the resources freed by Fund debt service relief under the CCRT to help provide emergency health, social and economic support to the economy to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on life and livelihood of the population.

### Key economic indicators (selected figures preserved exactly as in source)
- Real GDP (annual percent): 2018: 1.6, 2019: 1.8, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 2.1, 2020 (Proj.): -3.2, 2021 (Proj.): 3.1, 2022 (Proj.): 2.0, 2023 (Proj.): 2.1, 2024 (Proj.): 2.3, 2025 (Proj.): 2.6
- GDP deflator (annual percent): 2018: -2.9, 2019: -0.7, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 5.7, 2020 (Proj.): 8.0
- CPI (period average, annual percent): 2018: -2.8, 2019: -0.7, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 5.6, 2020 (Proj.): 7.6
- Terms of trade ( - = deterioration): 2018: 2.1, 2019: 6.5, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 5.9, 2020 (Proj.): 17.6
- Broad Money (M2) (annual percent): 2018: 21.0, 2019: 27.9, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 20.9, 2020 (Proj.): 16.4
- Credit to non-government sector (annual percent): 2018: 13.0, 2019: 11.1, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 7.8, 2020 (Proj.): 3.5
- M2/GDP (percent): 2018: 25.6, 2019: 32.3, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 37.4, 2020 (Proj.): 36.0
- Central government revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2018: 19.0, 2019: 21.8, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 21.9, 2020 (Proj.): 21.9
  - of which: grants (percent of GDP): 2018: 4.3, 2019: 4.4, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 4.5, 2020 (Proj.): 4.9
  - of which: revenue (percent of GDP): 2018: 14.7, 2019: 17.4, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 17.4, 2020 (Proj.): 17.0
- Expenditure (percent of GDP): 2018: 25.8, 2019: 30.0, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 28.0, 2020 (Proj.): 31.4
- Net acquisition of non-financial assets (percent of GDP): 2018: 6.7, 2019: 9.9, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 9.0, 2020 (Proj.): 8.3
- Primary balance (percent of GDP): 2018: -6.1, 2019: -7.8, 2020 (Pre-Covid): -3.3, 2020 (Proj.): -6.6
- Overall balance (percent of GDP): 2018: -6.8, 2019: -8.3, 2020 (Pre-Covid): -6.1, 2020 (Proj.): -9.5
- Public gross nominal debt (percent of GDP): 2018: 50.5, 2019: 57.4, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 59.7, 2020 (Proj.): 65.1
- Exports (goods and services, percent of GDP): 2018: 9.0, 2019: 9.9, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 9.9, 2020 (Proj.): 9.5
- Imports (goods and services, percent of GDP): 2018: 30.6, 2019: 36.8, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 35.6, 2020 (Proj.): 38.8
- Trade balance (goods and services, percent of GDP): 2018: -21.6, 2019: -26.8, 2020 (Pre-Covid): -25.7, 2020 (Proj.): -29.3
- Current account balance (incl. grants, percent of GDP): 2018: -14.5, 2019: -17.9, 2020 (Pre-Covid): -16.9, 2020 (Proj.): -20.7
- Gross international reserves (in millions of US$): 2018: 70.3, 2019: 113.4, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 113.4, 2020 (Proj.): 113.4
- Gross international reserves (in months of next year imports): 2018: 0.7, 2019: 1.1, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 1.1, 2020 (Proj.): 1.1
- GDP at current market prices:
  - In billions of Burundi Francs: 2018: 5,679, 2019: 5,741, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 6,191, 2020 (Proj.): 5,999, 2021 (Proj.): 6,488, 2022 (Proj.): 6,857, 2023 (Proj.): 7,262, 2024 (Proj.): 7,699, 2025 (Proj.): 8,191
  - In billions of US$: 2018: 3.2, 2019: 3.1, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 3.2, 2020 (Proj.): 3.1, 2021 (Proj.): 3.3, 2022 (Proj.): 3.4, 2023 (Proj.): 3.5, 2024 (Proj.): 3.7, 2025 (Proj.): 3.9
- GDP per capita (Nominal US$): 2018: 285, 2019: 270, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 273, 2020 (Proj.): 264, 2021 (Proj.): 267, 2022 (Proj.): 270, 2023 (Proj.): 273, 2024 (Proj.): 277, 2025 (Proj.): 282
- Population (million): 2018: 11.2, 2019: 11.5, 2020 (Pre-Covid): 11.9, 2020 (Proj.): 11.9, 2021 (Proj.): 12.2, 2022 (Proj.): 12.6, 2023 (Proj.): 13.0, 2024 (Proj.): 13.4, 2025 (Proj.): 13.8

*Sources: Burundi authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.*

### Annex VII. Union of the Comoros: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Annex VII. Union of the Comoros: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Recent Economic Developments
- COVID-19 continues to have a severe economic impact on Comoros despite low officially reported infections and deaths.
- Growth projection for 2020 was lowered to -1.8 percent from -1.2 percent due to a longer-than-anticipated airport closure and reduced visitor arrivals.
- Fiscal projections have remained largely unchanged, reflecting revenue performance so far and that the authorities have maintained earlier spending plans.
- Projections for financial support from donors have been maintained.
- External projections: staff projects a smaller current account deficit on account of better than anticipated terms of trade and remittances inflows.

### Public health and macroeconomic policy response
- Public health measures: airport closure and various forms of social distancing.
- Authorities intend to use Fund financing under the RCF and RFI (April 2020) to boost health, social and economic support to those most impacted.
- Health spending has not yet been raised substantially, reflecting the small number of COVID-19 cases and receipt of in-kind donations for COVID-19 testing.
- Fiscal/administrative measures: lowered customs duties for certain imports and delayed certain tax filing deadlines.
- Monetary measures: central bank lowered obligatory reserve requirements to address liquidity tensions.

### Governance safeguards
- Commitments in the RCF/RFI request:
  - (i) report quarterly on pandemic-related spending;
  - (ii) commission an independent and robust third-party audit of this spending in about a year’s time and publish its results;
  - (iii) publish regularly on the government’s website public procurement documentation on large public procurement projects, together with ex-post validation of delivery along with the name of awarded companies and the name of their beneficial owner(s).
- Capacity development is being provided to enhance accounting and recording of fiscal spending.
- Authorities are preparing a supplementary budget to strengthen transparency.

### IMF support status
- Executive Board approved emergency support on April 22, 2020:
  - Rapid Credit Facility equivalent to SDR2.97 million (16.7 percent of quota);
  - Rapid Financing Instrument purchase equivalent to SDR5.93 million (33.3 percent of quota).
- Purpose: meet urgent balance of payments needs from the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Authorities recently expressed interest in resuming discussions towards a deeper engagement with the IMF.

### Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service
- Comoros has debt service of SDR 0.8 million (including estimates for GRA charges on the CCRT-eligible debt) falling due to the Fund during the 6-month interval from October 14, 2020 to April 13, 2021 — the maximum period covered by the 2nd tranche of debt service relief under the CCRT.

### Staff assessment
- Staff assesses that Comoros is pursuing broadly appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the pandemic’s impact.
- Resources freed by the initial tranche of Fund debt service relief and other Fund support leave authorities ready to provide emergency health, social and economic support to mitigate the pandemic’s impact in the face of lower revenues.

### Selected economic and financial indicators (highlights from table)
- Real GDP (annual percentage change): 2018: 3.6; 2019: 1.9; Pre-Covid 2020: 4.4; April 2020 projection: -1.2; Current 2020 projection: -1.8; 2021: 2.9; 2022: 3.6; 2023: 3.7; 2024: 3.8; 2025: 3.8.
- Consumer price index (annual average): 2018: 1.7; 2019: 3.7; Pre-Covid 2020: 1.4; April 2020: 3.0; Current 2020: 2.5; 2021: 2.1; 2022–2025: 2.0 each year.
- Total revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2018: 13.9; 2019: 16.1; Pre-Covid 2020: 17.5; April 2020: 19.4; Current 2020: 19.4; 2021: 18.4; 2022: 16.8; 2023: 16.8; 2024: 16.7; 2025: 16.7.
- Total expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP): 2018: 14.9; 2019: 18.3; Pre-Covid 2020: 19.7; April 2020: 23.3; Current 2020: 23.3; 2021: 21.0; 2022: 19.1; 2023: 19.0; 2024: 18.7; 2025: 18.7.
- Overall balance (cash basis, percent of GDP): 2018: -0.4; 2019: -2.2; Pre-Covid 2020: -2.2; April 2020: -3.8; Current 2020: -3.9; 2021: -2.6; 2022: -2.3; 2023: -2.2; 2024: -2.0; 2025: -2.0.
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2018: -2.8; 2019: -3.8; Pre-Covid 2020: -5.5; April 2020: -5.7; Current 2020: -3.8; 2021: -5.0; 2022: -4.5; 2023: -3.9; 2024: -3.4; 2025: -2.4.
- Private remittances, net (percent of GDP): 2018: 12.3; 2019: 12.1; Pre-Covid 2020: 12.1; April 2020: 9.0; Current 2020: 11.2; 2021: 10.8; 2022: 10.3; 2023: 9.9; 2024: 10.0; 2025: 10.2.
- External debt (percent of GDP): 2018: 19.6; 2019: 23.7; Pre-Covid 2020: 27.0; April 2020: 29.7; Current 2020: 27.8; 2021: 29.8; 2022: 30.4; 2023: 30.9; 2024: 31.2; 2025: 31.4.
- Gross international reserves (end of period, in millions of U.S. dollars): 2018: 198.4; 2019: 196.4; Pre-Covid 2020: 197.7; April 2020: 182.2; Current 2020: 221.7; 2021: 222.4; 2022: 226.8; 2023: 229.4; 2024: 236.7; 2025: 249.7.
- Public sector debt (percent of GDP, memorandum): 2018: 19.6; 2019: 23.9; Pre-Covid 2020: 27.1; April 2020: 30.1; Current 2020: 30.1; 2021: 32.8; 2022: 33.5; 2023: 34.0; 2024: 34.5; 2025: 34.8.
- GDP (nominal, in billions of CF, memorandum): 2018: 491.0; 2019: 523.1; Pre-Covid 2020: 550.4; April 2020: 527.9; Current 2020: 523.7; 2021: 549.5; 2022: 580.2; 2023: 613.0; 2024: 648.3; 2025: 685.6.
- GDP per capita (nominal, in US Dollars, memorandum): 2018: 1,386; 2019: 1,362; Pre-Covid 2020: 1,397; April 2020: 1,333; Current 2020: 1,356; 2021: 1,491; 2022: 1,533; 2023: 1,570; 2024: 1,604; 2025: 1,635.

*IMF staff; Annex VII. Union of the Comoros: Update for CCRT Debt Relief*

### Annex X. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Update for

### Annex X. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Recent economic developments
- Real GDP growth:
  - Revised down from around 6 percent for both 2019/20 and 2020/21 prior to the crisis, to 1.9 percent and zero respectively.
- Fiscal developments:
  - Fiscal deficit in FY2019/20 estimated to have widened, mainly driven by underperformance in tax revenues and higher COVID-19 related expenditures.
  - COVID-19 related expenditures in FY2019/20 amounted to 1.6 percent of GDP.
  - Net monetary financing of the general government deficit exceeded the pre-pandemic target, largely due to the on-lending of the RFI disbursement for budget support.
- External sector and reserves:
  - Sharply lower imports and higher-than-projected merchandise exports offset a decline in services exports (primarily from air travel and tourism) and remittances, leading to a narrower-than-projected current account deficit of around 4 percent of GDP.
  - Shortfalls in foreign direct investment, including due to a delay in the privatization of the Ethio-Telecom, led to an underperformance in reserve accumulation.

Note: Ethiopia’s fiscal years run July 8 – July 7.

### Public health and macroeconomic policy response (including use of resources freed by debt relief)
- Budgetary actions:
  - In May 2020, authorities approved supplementary budget allocations of around 0.5 percent of GDP to cover COVID-related healthcare spending needs, and 1 percent of GDP to meet humanitarian needs (primarily emergency food distribution and sanitation).
  - These measures led to only a 1 percent of GDP widening of the deficit relative to pre-pandemic projections, amid significant scaling back of planned capital expenditure and modest external COVID-related grant financing of 0.1 percent of GDP.
- Tax and liquidity measures:
  - Authorities introduced temporary tax relief measures aimed at alleviating pressures on businesses, mainly in the form of deferral of tax liabilities.
- FY2020/21 budget:
  - Authorities approved a budget envisaging a 3.1 percent-of-GDP deficit (relative to the ECF-EFF program approval deficit target of 2.5 percent), as COVID-related spending needs are expected to remain significant through the first half of the fiscal year.

### Governance safeguards and transparency
- Procurement and contracting:
  - All tenders for public contracts (primarily for healthcare supplies and humanitarian support goods) have been carried out through a competitive bidding process, in accordance with national procurement law, and bidding documents are published online.
- Fiscal transparency and oversight:
  - Limited tax relief provided to businesses was enacted transparently through a published regulation by the Council of Ministers and a directive by the Ministry of Finance, with the impact fully reflected in the budget.
  - All funds secured from donors in 2019/20 were included in the approved supplementary budget, and a directive was issued to ensure that all mobilized resources (including the government’s own sources) are accounted for and managed transparently.
  - Monitoring of COVID-19 spending is led by a steering committee chaired by the deputy Prime Minister; a technical committee chaired by the Ministry of Finance has been established to monitor all budgetary processes from allocation to audit.
  - Authorities committed under the RFI to provide information on how emergency relief funds are spent to internal auditors and to use independent auditors to conduct an ex-post audit.

### IMF support status and Fund operations
- Program approvals and access:
  - Ethiopia’s 3-year program under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangements, with a total access of 700 percent of quota, was approved by the Board on December 20, 2019.
  - Ethiopia’s request for assistance from the Fund under the RFI in the amount of 100 percent of quota (SDR 300.7 million or about US$411 million) and debt relief under the CCRT were approved by the Board on April 30.
  - Along with RFI approval, there was a reduction in EFF access by 50 percent of quota to comply with then applicable annual access limit policies.
  - The first review under the ECF/EFF arrangements is scheduled to be discussed at the Board in the coming weeks.

### Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service
- Ethiopia has debt service of SDR 4.489 million (which includes estimates for the GRA charges on the CCRT-eligible debt) falling due during the 6-month interval from October 14, 2020 to April 13, 2021, the maximum period covered by the 2nd tranche of debt service relief under the CCRT.

### Staff assessment
- Staff assesses that Ethiopia is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies as it responds to the health and economic impacts of the global pandemic.
- Staff also assesses that the resources freed by the initial tranche of Fund debt service relief under the CCRT, and other support from the Fund, are being used to help provide emergency health, social and economic support to the economy to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on life and livelihood of the population.

*Annex X. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Update for CCRT Debt Relief*

### Annex XII. Guinea: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Annex XII. Guinea: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Recent Economic Developments
- The COVID-19 pandemic has deteriorated Guinea’s growth outlook since approval of the first tranche of CCRT debt service relief in April 2020.
- Economic growth:
  - 2020 is expected to decelerate to 1.4 percent (compared to 2.9 percent projected at the time of the CCRT request, and 5.8 percent expected before the pandemic).
  - Growth is projected to recover to 6.6 percent in 2021, supported by a resilient mining sector and a recovery in the services sector.
- Sectoral dynamics:
  - A more severe local outbreak led to a more pronounced slowdown in non-mining growth; commerce, services, and transport activities were particularly affected.
- Balance of payments and financing:
  - Developments in global commodity markets have strained the balance of payments.
  - A large increase in external financial support from the international community reduced residual financing needs to about US$36 million in 2020 (over 0.2 percent of GDP).
- Fiscal impacts:
  - Tax revenues are projected to be 1.9 percent of GDP lower than anticipated before the pandemic.
  - Health-related spending is projected to increase by 0.8 percent of GDP in 2020.
  - The overall fiscal deficit is projected at 3.1 percent of GDP in 2021.

### Public health and macroeconomic policy response
- Authorities’ comprehensive plan objectives:
  - Scale-up health spending.
  - Protect the most vulnerable.
  - Support the private sector.
- Budgetary costs:
  - The budgetary cost of the plan is estimated at US$203 million (about 1.5 percent of GDP).
  - A second phase estimated at about US$50 million (0.34 percent of GDP) was announced in June, extending measures until end-September 2020.
- Guinea: COVID-19 Response plan (Percent of GDP)
  - Initial Response Plan / Additional measures
  - Health spending: 0.81 / 0.02
    - Of which:
      - Health Infrastructure: 0.26
      - Operational Costs: 0.22
      - Medical Equipment: 0.14
      - Medical Treatment & Diagnostics: 0.09
      - Surveillance: 0.08
  - Protecting the Most Vulnerable: 0.42 / 0.22
    - Of which:
      - Cash Transfers and High-intensity Works: 0.21 / 0.01
      - Payment of Electricity Bills for Social Tariff Consumers: 0.09 / 0.09
      - Food Stock Reserve: 0.08 / 0.06
  - Supporting the Private Sector: 0.27 / 0.10
    - Of which:
      - Tax Relief to firms in tourism and hotels and SMEs: 0.19 / 0.05
      - Support to the agricultural sector (cotton and cashew nut): 0.02
  - Total: 1.50 / 0.34
- Health statistics (as of 8 September):
  - 9,816 people reported infected (75 per 100,000 people).
  - 62 reported deaths (0.63% of the infected population).
  - New cases relatively stable, daily new cases oscillating between 50 and 100.

### Governance safeguards
- Fiscal and transparency measures:
  - Authorities preparing a supplementary budget that identifies COVID-related financing and expenditure.
  - Created a budgetary fund to account for all earmarked external and domestic resources for the pandemic to ensure traceability of spending.
  - Established a dedicated account at the central bank to receive and disburse COVID-19 funds.
  - Agreed to publish monthly reports on the execution of COVID-19 spending and to publish all procurement contracts awarded for COVID-19 related projects.
  - Conduct ex-post control of high-risk expenditures.
  - A third-party audit of the use of COVID-19 spending will be conducted and published online by June 2021.
  - Authorities receiving technical assistance to enhance management of COVID-19 response funds.

### IMF support status
- Existing arrangements and recent actions:
  - A three-year ECF arrangement was approved by the IMF Executive Board on December 11, 2017 for SDR 120.488 million (56.25 percent of quota).
  - The fourth review under the ECF arrangement was completed on April 1, 2020.
  - On June 19, 2020, the IMF Executive Board approved a disbursement of SDR 107.1 million (about US$148 million) under the Rapid Credit Facility.
  - The authorities have expressed interest in completing the ECF program; discussions for the fifth and sixth reviews expected to begin remotely in end-September.

### Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service
- Guinea has eligible debt service of SDR 16.4 million falling due in the second period of debt service relief from October 14, 2020 to April 13, 2021.

### Staff appraisal
- Staff assesses that Guinea is pursuing adequate macroeconomic policies to address the effects of COVID-19.
- Based on available information, staff believes resources freed by the initial tranche of CCRT debt service relief are being used to respond to the health and socio-economic crisis and mitigate the pandemic’s impact on lives and livelihoods.

### Key economic and financial indicators (selected extracts from Table 1)
- Real GDP at constant prices (annual percentage change):
  - 2017: 10.3
  - 2018: 6.2
  - 2019: 5.6
  - 2020 (pre-COVID): 5.8
  - 2020 (prel.): 1.4
  - 2021 (proj.): 6.6
- Sectoral GDP growth (annual percentage change):
  - Mining 2020 (prel.): -3.5; 2021 (proj.): 14.5
  - Non-mining 2020 (prel.): 2.5; 2021 (proj.): 5.0
- Consumer prices (average):
  - 2017: 8.9
  - 2018: 9.8
  - 2019: 9.5
  - 2020 (prel.): 9.1
  - 2021 (proj.): 8.0
- Exports, f.o.b. (US$ terms, annual percent change):
  - 2017: 68.7
  - 2018: -4.3
  - 2019: 3.1
  - 2020 (prel.): -1.2
  - 2021 (proj.): 20.3
- Imports, f.o.b. (US$ terms, annual percent change):
  - 2017: -6.6
  - 2018: 18.5
  - 2019: -5.5
  - 2020 (prel.): 13.7
  - 2021 (proj.): 8.9
- Central government finances (percent of GDP):
  - Total revenue and grants 2020 (prel.): 13.6; 2021 (proj.): 14.9
  - Revenue 2020 (prel.): 12.3; 2021 (proj.): 13.8
  - Grants 2020 (prel.): 1.3; 2021 (proj.): 1.0
  - Total expenditure and net lending 2020 (prel.): 17.3; 2021 (proj.): 18.0
  - Current expenditure 2020 (prel.): 12.4; 2021 (proj.): 11.2
  - Capital expenditure and net lending 2020 (prel.): 4.9; 2021 (proj.): 6.7
  - Overall budget balance including grants 2020 (prel.): -3.7; 2021 (proj.): -3.1
- Current account balance (including official transfers, percent of GDP):
  - 2020 (prel.): -20.5
  - 2021 (proj.): -15.7
- Memorandum items:
  - Exports, goods and services (US$ millions) 2020 (prel.): 4,051.2; 2021 (proj.): 4,861.1
  - Imports, goods and services (US$ millions) 2020 (prel.): 6,189.3; 2021 (proj.): 6,711.7
  - Overall balance of payments (US$ millions) 2020 (prel.): -383.2; 2021 (proj.): 147.4
  - Net foreign assets of the central bank (US$ millions) 2020 (prel.): 949.9; 2021 (proj.): 1,151.5
  - Gross available reserves (months of imports) 2020 (prel.): 3.8; 2021 (proj.): 3.9
  - External public debt, incl. IMF (percent of GDP) 2020 (prel.): 30.8; 2021 (proj.): 33.7
  - Total public debt, incl. IMF (percent of GDP) 2020 (prel.): 45.0; 2021 (proj.): 45.7
  - Nominal GDP (GNF billions) 2020 (prel.): 139,446; 2021 (proj.): 160,903

*Source: Guinean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.*

### Annex XV. Liberia: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Annex XV. Liberia: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Recent Economic Developments
- Growth forecasts revised:
  - 2020: from 1.4 percent to -3.0 percent.
  - 2021: from 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent.
- FY2019/20 domestic revenue ended in June at 13.6 percent of GDP, down from the pre-COVID projection of 14.9 percent of GDP.
- Balance of payments need for 2020: US$150 million (5.1 percent of GDP).

### Public health and macroeconomic policy response
- Authorities measures and fiscal priorities:
  - Introduced an excise tax on fuel to increase tax revenue by 1.2 percent of GDP in FY2021.
  - COVID-19 related expenditure set to increase by 5.1 percent of GDP in 2020 and is highly prioritized.
  - 3.1 percent of GDP allocated to emergency food aid and cash transfers.
  - Working with development partners to finalize a comprehensive off-budget COVID-19 response plan.
  - Execution of planned COVID spending to date: about 20 percent.
  - Liberia has not participated in the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative.

- COVID-19 Related Fiscal Measures (Percent of GDP) — 2020 projections:
  - Priority expenditures: Pre-COVID 16.5; Current 20.4; Change 3.9
  - of which:
    - Health: Pre-COVID 9.1; Current 10.0; Change 0.9
    - Education: Pre-COVID 4.2; Current 4.0; Change -0.1
    - Social: Pre-COVID 3.3; Current 6.4; Change 3.1
  - Other COVID-19-related spending: Pre-COVID 1.2; Current 1.2
    - COVID prevention, containment & mgmt: Pre-COVID 0.7; Current 0.7
    - Transfers to HHs: Pre-COVID 0.1; Current 0.1
    - Transfers to businesses, SOEs, govt. entities: Pre-COVID 0.4; Current 0.4

### Governance safeguards
- Steps to improve fiscal transparency and accountability:
  - Publishing weekly fiscal reports starting in June 2020 on the authorities’ website.
  - From FY2020/21, requiring all institutions to use the Integrated Financial Management Information System for all purchases under the central government’s budget.
  - Publishing all procurement contracts paid from the budget above specified thresholds.
  - Committing the General Audit Commission to conduct a postcrisis audit of all crisis-related spending by June 2021 and to publish the results online within two weeks of its finalization.

### IMF support status
- Executive Board approvals:
  - December 11, 2019: Four-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Liberia in an amount equivalent to SDR 155 million (60 percent of quota or about US$ 213.6 million). Preparations for the first and second reviews are underway.
  - June 5, 2020: Disbursement of SDR 36.176 million (US$50 million) under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) to support the authorities’ COVID-19 response.

### Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service
- Liberia has debt service of SDR 11.19 million falling due during the 6-month interval from October 14, 2020 to April 13, 2021, the maximum period covered by the 2nd tranche of debt service relief under the CCRT.

### Staff assessment
- Staff assesses that Liberia is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the global pandemic.
- Staff assesses that resources freed by the initial tranche of Fund debt service relief under the CCRT, and other support from the Fund, are being used to help provide emergency health, social and economic support to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on life and livelihood of the population.

*Source: Annex XV. Liberia: Update for CCRT Debt Relief (IMF).*

### Annex XVIII. Republic of Mozambique: Update for CCRT Debt

### Annex XVIII. Republic of Mozambique: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Recent economic developments
- Real GDP fell 3.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter.
- Real GDP growth is expected to be -0.5 percent in 2020 and recover to 2.1 percent in 2021 (6.5 and 1.9 percentage points below the pre-virus baseline of October 2019 respectively).
- The primary deficit is projected to widen to 3.8 percent of GDP due to lower revenue and higher crisis spending.
- The current account deficit is projected to widen to 60 of GDP owing mainly to a decline in commodities export receipts of 8.6 percentage points.
- On current expectations, US$700 million in external financing needs this year will be covered with international support and a decline in international reserves.
- Downside risks to these projections are significant.

### Policy response
- Fiscal package equivalent to 3.5 percent of GDP announced:
  - Health: 0.7 percent of GDP
  - Transfers to the poorest households: 1.6 percent of GDP
  - Support for small and micro-enterprises: 1.1 percent of GDP
  - Part of the package has been executed.
- Authorities have received 54 percent of their requested US$700 million (4.8 percent of GDP) in grants and concessional financing from development partners.
- Central bank reduced the policy rate by 250 basis points to 10.25 percent since April.
- The metical has depreciated by almost 10 percent against the U.S. dollar.
- COVID-related fiscal measures (2020 projections, change Pre-Covid to Current, in percent of GDP):
  - Priority expenditure: Pre-Covid 2.6, Current 3.2, Change 0.7
  - Education: Pre-Covid 6.6, Current 6.6, Change 0.0
  - Social: Pre-Covid 0.9, Current 0.9, Change 0.0
  - Cash transfers to at-risk poor families: Current 1.6
  - Support to microbusinesses and SMEs: Current 1.1
  - Revenue losses (Memorandum): Current 1.4

### Governance safeguards
- Authorities committed to reforms to strengthen governance, transparency and accountability in line with recommendations of the Government’s diagnostic report published in August 2019.
- For crisis mitigation measures, government committed to:
  - Publishing an independent audit of spending and procurement processes once the crisis abates.
  - Publishing on the government’s website large public procurement contracts including the names and beneficial owners of the companies awarded contracts, and ex-post validation of delivery (has not started yet).
- Authorities plan to submit a revised budget to parliament in September to fully account for COVID measures and financing.
- Monthly reporting by the Health Ministry of funds received and their allocation has been put in place.
- Earmarked accounts at the central bank have been opened for spending on health and support to households.

### IMF program status
- IMF Executive Board approved a US$309 million disbursement (100 percent of quota) under the Rapid Credit Facility on April 24, 2020.
- Authorities have requested an ECF, and discussions are expected to start later in the year.

### Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service
- Mozambique has debt service of SDR 9.5 million falling due during the 6-month interval from October 14, 2020 to April 13, 2021, the maximum period covered by the 2nd tranche of debt service relief under the CCRT.

### Staff appraisal
- Staff assesses that Mozambique is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the global pandemic.
- Staff assesses that the resources freed by the initial tranche of Fund debt service relief under the CCRT, and other support from the Fund, are being used to help provide emergency health, social and economic support to the economy to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on life and livelihood of the population.

### Key economic and financial indicators (selected, as reported)
- Real GDP: 2017 3.7; 2018 3.4; 2019 2.3; 2020 (Prel./WEO 2019) 6.0; 2020 (Proj. Current) -0.5; 2021 2.1; 2022 4.7; 2023 8.6; 2024 10.9; 2025 11.1
- Real GDP, excl. extractive industries: 2017 2.1; 2018 2.9; 2019 2.8; 2020 5.8; 2020 Current 0.4; 2021 2.1; 2022 4.7; 2023 4.0; 2024 4.0; 2025 4.0
- Nominal GDP (billions of meticais): 2017 841; 2018 896; 2019 957; 2020 1,084; 2021 999; 2022 1,077; 2023 1,189; 2024 1,373; 2025 1,626; 2025 1,929
- Nominal GDP (billions of US dollars): 2017 13.2; 2018 14.7; 2019 15.2; 2020 16.7; 2021 14.6; 2022 14.1; 2023 15.1; 2024 16.8; 2025 19.3; 2025 22.1
- Total revenue (Percent of GDP): 2017 25.1; 2018 23.8; 2019 28.9; 2020 25.1; 2021 21.0; 2022 24.1; 2023 25.5; 2024 26.1; 2025 24.8; 2025 23.2
- Total expenditure and net lending (Percent of GDP): 2017 30.0; 2018 32.6; 2019 30.0; 2020 34.7; 2021 31.7; 2022 31.7; 2023 30.6; 2024 29.2; 2025 26.9; 2025 24.8
- Overall fiscal balance, before grants (Percent of GDP): 2017 -5.1; 2018 -9.2; 2019 -1.1; 2020 -9.7; 2021 -10.6; 2022 -7.5; 2023 -5.1; 2024 -3.1; 2025 -2.1; 2025 -1.6
- Overall fiscal balance, after grants (Percent of GDP): 2017 -3.2; 2018 -7.2; 2019 -0.1; 2020 -4.8; 2021 -7.1; 2022 -5.3; 2023 -3.4; 2024 -1.5; 2025 -1.0; 2025 -0.7
- Primary fiscal balance, after grants (Percent of GDP): 2017 -0.2; 2018 -2.8; 2019 3.1; 2020 -1.0; 2021 -3.8; 2022 -2.1; 2023 -0.5; 2024 1.1; 2025 1.3; 2025 1.3
- Nominal stock of total public debt (Percent of GDP): 2017 106.6; 2018 109.1; 2019 106.3; 2020 111.4; 2021 124.7; 2022 128.7; 2023 128.5; 2024 121.7; 2025 109.8; 2025 97.0
- External debt (Percent of GDP): 2017 87.4; 2018 91.6; 2019 87.7; 2020 96.3; 2021 105.6; 2022 107.9; 2023 108.6; 2024 104.1; 2025 94.2; 2025 83.7
- Gross international reserves (millions of US dollars, end of period): 2017 3,338; 2018 3,081; 2019 3,884; 2020 299; 2021 13,368; 2022 3,175; 2023 3,221; 2024 3,405; 2025 3,728; 2025 4,081
- Net international reserves (millions of US dollars, end of period): 2017 3,114; 2018 2,885; 2019 3,605; 2020 275; 2021 63,167; 2022 2,974; 2023 3,020; 2024 3,204; 2025 3,527; 2025 3,880
- Policy rate (percent): 2017 19.5; 2018 14.3; 2019 12.8; 2020 12.8; 2020 Current 10.3; (latest as of August 2020)
- Meticais per US dollar, end of period: 2017 59.3; 2018 61.6; 2019 62.4
- Meticais per US dollar, period average: 2017 63.9; 2018 60.9; 2019 63.1

*International Monetary Fund staff summary based on Annex XVIII. Republic of Mozambique: Update for CCRT Debt Relief*

### Annex XX. Niger: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Annex XX. Niger: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Recent economic developments
- Updated outlook close to April projections: real GDP growth likely set back to 0.5 percent in 2020 and expected expansion of 6.8 percent in 2021.
- Comparison to pre-pandemic projections: 6.0 percent for 2020 and 5.6 percent for 2021.
- Main causes of slowdown: reduced exports, implementation delays of large-scale foreign projects, and domestic containment measures.
- Partial mitigants: limited involvement in international value chains and large informal agricultural sector.
- Fiscal impact:
  - Fiscal deficit expected to widen from a pre-pandemic estimate of 2.7 percent of GDP to 4.8 percent of GDP in 2020.
  - Reasons: revenue shortfalls from economic slowdown, difficulties in tax collection under pandemic conditions, and higher health and social support spending.
- Current account:
  - Expected at 16.8 percent of GDP in 2020, above pre-pandemic estimate of 15.9 percent of GDP.
  - Note: Nigeria’s unilateral decision in August 2019 to close its border to trade affects outcomes.
- Financing gaps:
  - A large financing gap for 2020 of some 3 percent of GDP that had emerged in April seems largely filled thanks to stepped-up donor support, including past and prospective CCRT debt service relief.
  - A financing gap could emerge in 2021 if downside risks to recovery and donor support materialize.

### Public health and macroeconomic policy response
- State of emergency declared on March 27; comprehensive containment measures gradually lifted from mid-May; by August only closure of land borders to travel and obligation to wear masks in public remained.
- COVID-19 related deaths remained below 100 at end-August.
- Supplementary budget authorizes additional spending of 0.8 percent of GDP to mitigate health and social fallout; most of which has meanwhile been spent.
- Credit promotion scheme of 1.9 percent of GDP put in place, backstopped by government guarantees, without immediate fiscal costs.
- Only marginal tax policy measures taken; large revenue shortfall expected.
- Government prepared a broader COVID-19 response plan, implementation contingent on availability of additional donor financing.

### Government safeguards
- COVID-19 related spending is channeled through the budget and subject to usual safeguards, including auditing by the Court of Audit.
- No extra-budgetary funds except a very small one that collects private donations.
- Progress in governance: establishment and successive strengthening of the anti-corruption agency HALCIA.

### COVID-19 related fiscal measures (percent of projected GDP)
- Priority expenditures:
  - Original: 8.6
  - Supplementary: 9.1
  - Change: 0.6
- Of which: health:
  - Original: 1.8
  - Supplementary: 2.1
  - Change: 0.3
- Of which: education:
  - Original: 2.9
  - Supplementary: 3.0
  - Change: 0.0
- Of which: social protection:
  - Original: 3.8
  - Supplementary: 4.0
  - Change: 0.2
- Other COVID-19-related spending (in addition to health and social protection): 0.3
- Pandemic management, prevention, etc.: 0.1
- Transfers to households: 0.2
- Transfers to businesses: ...
- Total COVID-19 related expenditure (supplementary): 0.8
- Memorandum:
  - Tax measures: minimal
  - 2020 Budgets note: Credit support scheme of 1.9 percent of GDP back-stopped by government guarantees without immediate budgetary costs.
  - Original budget adopted in December 2019, ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak.
  - Other COVID-19 spending indicated is in addition to what is already captured under health and social protection priority spending.

### IMF support status
- ECF arrangement (SDR118.44 million or 90 percent of quota) in place since January 2017.
- Mission for the 6th and final program review planned for September; if successful could allow completion before the arrangement expires at end-October 2020.
- 5th program review completed on January 8, 2020, attesting to broadly satisfactory overall program performance.
- Emergency financial assistance under the Rapid Credit Facility (SDR83.66 million, 63.6 percent of quota) approved on April 14, 2020.

### Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service
- Niger has debt service of SDR 5.64 million falling due during the 6-month interval from October 14, 2020 to April 13, 2021, the maximum period covered by the 2nd tranche of debt service relief under the CCRT.

### Staff appraisal
- Staff assesses that Niger is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the global pandemic.
- Staff assesses that resources freed by the initial tranche of Fund debt service relief under the CCRT, and other support from the Fund, are being used to help provide emergency health, social and economic support to mitigate the pandemic’s impact on life and livelihood of the population.

### Selected economic and financial indicators (highlights from tables, 2017–25)
- Real GDP growth (annual percent):
  - 2017: 5.0
  - 2018: 7.2
  - 2019: 6.3
  - 2020 (est.): 0.5
  - 2021 (proj.): 6.8
  - 2022: 12.8
  - 2023: 11.4
  - 2024: 6.6
  - 2025: 6.0
- Oil production (thousand barrels per day):
  - 2017: 18
  - 2018: 17
  - 2019: 20
  - 2020: 18
  - 2021: 20
  - 2022: 17
  - 2023: 18
  - 2024: 50
  - 2025: 98
  - (table contains additional yearly values)
- Overall balance (commitment basis, incl. grants, percent of GDP):
  - 2017: -4.1
  - 2018: -3.0
  - 2019: -2.8
  - 2020 (pre-pandemic): -3.6
  - 2020 (current): -2.7
  - 2020 (supplementary estimate): -4.8
  - 2021: -4.7
  - 2022: -3.2
  - 2023: -2.5
  - 2024: -2.5
  - 2025: -2.5
- Total public and publicly-guaranteed debt (percent of GDP):
  - 2017: 39.5
  - 2018: 38.9
  - 2019: 40.3
  - 2020: 41.7
  - 2021: 39.7
  - 2022: 45.7
  - 2023: 46.5
  - 2024: 43.7
  - 2025: 41.1
- External current account balance (incl. grants, percent of GDP):
  - 2017: -11.4
  - 2018: -12.6
  - 2019: -14.1
  - 2020 (pre-pandemic): -12.6
  - 2020 (current): -15.9
  - 2021: -16.8
  - 2022: -19.2
  - 2023: -11.6
  - 2024: -7.8
  - 2025: -6.9
- Debt-service ratio as percent of exports of goods and services:
  - 2017: 5.0
  - 2018: 7.1
  - 2019: 7.2
  - 2020: 7.7
  - 2021: 8.3
  - 2022: 11.9
  - 2023: 15.2
  - 2024: 11.5
  - 2025: 9.5
  - 2026: 7.8
  - 2027: 6.6
- GDP at current market prices (billions of CFA francs):
  - 2017: 6,497
  - 2018: 7,136
  - 2019: 7,621
  - 2020: 7,565
  - 2021: 8,240
  - 2022: 7,785
  - 2023: 8,490
  - 2024: 9,772
  - 2025: 11,100
  - 2026: 12,067
  - 2027: 13,049

*International Monetary Fund — Annex XX. Niger: Update for CCRT Debt Relief*

### Annex XXII. Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Principe:

### Annex XXII. Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Principe

### Update for CCRT Debt Relief — Key findings
- São Tomé and Príncipe faces exceptional balance of payments needs resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and has requested support under the Catastrophe Containment window of the CCRT.
- Real GDP growth in 2020 projected to decline to –6.5 percent compared to a pre-pandemic growth projection of positive 3.5 percent.
- The tourism sector is expected to plummet by over 70 percent, and remittances are expected to decline in 2020, further depressing foreign exchange receipts.
- An expected drop in fiscal revenue and increased health and social expenditures have led to a large fiscal need of $20.6 million, 5.1 percent of GDP.
- With the collapse of the tourism sector and a large fall in FDI, the balance of payments gap is estimated at $22.1 million (5.5 percent of GDP).
- Since the RCF approval in April, estimated costs of the pandemic in terms of health, unemployment, and social expenses have been revised from 1.6 percent of GDP to 3.1 percent.

### COVID-related fiscal measures (FY2020 projections)
- COVID prevention, containment, & management: 1.5 percent of GDP
- Transfers to households: 1.1 percent of GDP
- Transfers to businesses, SOEs, government entities: 0.5 percent of GDP
- Total COVID-related fiscal measures: 3.1 percent of GDP

### Macroeconomic policies and fiscal stance
- Under the ECF arrangement, fiscal targets for 2020 have been relaxed to accommodate the impact of the pandemic.
- The authorities revised the end-2020 domestic primary deficit projection from 1.7 percent of GDP to 6.3 percent of GDP.
- Policy measures implemented:
  - Expanded health and social programs.
  - Incentives for businesses to retain workers and support for the unemployed.
  - A solidarity contribution from public and private workers who were relatively unaffected by the pandemic.
  - Temporary deferment of some tax payments.
  - Retail fuel prices kept unchanged to generate revenue from lower international oil prices.
  - Central Bank measures: lowered minimum reserve requirements and a six-month moratorium on credit repayments.
  - A World Bank supported cash transfer program has doubled the number of households receiving payments.

### Governance safeguards
- As part of the ECF arrangement, the authorities have begun publishing public procurement contracts and monthly COVID-19-related expenditure reports on the Ministry of Finance website.
- Authorities committed to releasing information on beneficiary ownership of firms awarded public contracts.
- Plans include an ex-post validation of contract delivery and an independent audit of spending after the crisis, with publication of results to confirm funds were used for their intended purpose.

### IMF program status and financing support
- A 40-month ECF arrangement was approved on October 2, 2019 in the amount of SDR 13.32 million (90 percent of quota).
- An RCF disbursement (61 percent of quota) was approved in April 2020.
- The Board approved the first review of the ECF arrangement and an augmentation (10 percent of quota) in July 2020.
- Staff notes that resources freed under the initial tranche of Fund debt service relief under the CCRT, the RCF, and the ECF arrangement are contributing to finance additional health services, protect the most vulnerable, and support the economy in the short-term.

### Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service
- Debt service for the initial period of debt service relief from April 14 to October 13, 2020: SDR 111,000.
- Debt service falling due from October 14, 2020 through April 13, 2021: SDR 174,428.

### Staff appraisal and recommendation
- Staff supports São Tomé and Príncipe’s request for debt relief under the CCRT.
- Rationale: the authorities are pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the immediate impacts of the pandemic while maintaining commitment to medium-term structural reforms under the ECF arrangement.
- Resources freed by CCRT debt service relief and other Fund support are being used to provide additional health services, protect vulnerable populations, and support the economy in the short term.

*Source: Annex XXII. Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Principe*

### Annex XXIV. Solomon Islands: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Annex XXIV. Solomon Islands: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Recent economic developments
- Real GDP growth:
  - Pre-virus baseline for 2020: 2.5 percent
  - Projected 2020: -5.5 percent
  - Projected 2021 rebound: 5.6 percent (pre-virus baseline for 2021: 2.7 percent)
- Drivers of the 2020 contraction: reduced global demand for commodity exports, sharp contraction in tourism, and containment measures’ impact on domestic activity.
- Fiscal and external positions:
  - Fiscal deficit projected to widen to 5.8 percent of GDP (compared to 3.3 percent in the pre-virus baseline).
  - Government cash balance falling well below staff recommended minimum of two months of spending.
  - Total external financing gap (before RCF/RFI disbursement and additional ADB budget support): US$38.8 million (about 2.5 percent of GDP) at time of RCF/RFI program request.

### Public health and macroeconomic policy response
- Public health status and prevention spending:
  - No confirmed COVID-19 cases as of September 8.
  - Authorities announced health and containment spending of about SI$137 million (1.1 percent of GDP).
- Fiscal stimulus and direct support:
  - Fiscal stimulus package of SI$319 million (2.6 percent of GDP), targeted at protecting jobs and incomes and stabilizing the domestic economy.
  - A supplemental 2020 budget appropriation bill was approved by parliament to reflect the fiscal response.
- National Provident Fund measures:
  - Exceptional early NPF withdrawals expected to reach SI$200 million (1.6 percent of GDP).
  - As of end-June, SI$95 million disbursed through the NPF.

### Governance safeguards
- Oversight arrangements:
  - An Oversight Committee established to oversee COVID-19 stimulus spending and guard against misuse.
  - Authorities committed to publication of an audit of COVID-19 related expenditures (before December 2021) and related procurement information.

### IMF support status and recent financing
- RCF/RFI emergency support:
  - Approved on June 1, 2020: SDR 20.8 million (about US$28.5 million, 100 percent of quota).
  - Disbursement used to provide balance of payments support; made to the Central Bank of Solomon Islands.
- Role of Fund support:
  - RCF/RFI and Fund debt service relief under the CCRT expected to maintain macroeconomic stability and catalyze budget financing from development partners.

### Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service
- Solomon Islands has Fund debt service of SDR 0.074 million falling due during the 6-month interval from October 14, 2020 to April 13, 2021 (maximum period covered by the 2nd tranche of CCRT debt service relief).

### Staff assessment
- Macro policy assessment:
  - Staff assesses that Solomon Islands is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the domestic impact of the pandemic.
  - Fund debt service relief under the CCRT and RCF/RFI support will be used to maintain macroeconomic stability, safeguard public health, support livelihoods, and aid the economic recovery.
  - Fund support is playing a catalytic role with development partners for emergency budget financing.

### Key indicators and fiscal/financial metrics (selected, preserving source values)
- Per capita GDP (2017): US$2,375
- Population (2017): 613,712
- Nominal GDP (in SI$ millions): end-2019: 12,992; pre-COVID: 13,640; post-COVID (2020 proj): 12,384
- Central government (in percent of GDP, selected):
  - Total revenue and grants: end-2019: 39.2; pre-COVID: 40.0; post-COVID: 32.5
  - Revenue: end-2019: 30.2; pre-COVID: 30.1; post-COVID: 26.5 (post-COVID revenue for 2020 proj: 21.4)
  - Grants: end-2019: 9.0; pre-COVID: 9.9; post-COVID: 6.8 (post-COVID grants for 2020 proj: 10.9)
  - Overall balance: end-2019: -3.4; pre-COVID: 0.8; post-COVID: -1.7 (2020 proj: -5.8)
- Cash and reserve metrics (SI$ millions):
  - Cash balance (in SI$ millions): end-2019: 343; pre-COVID: 311; post-COVID (2020 proj): 206 (2021: 129; 2022: 47)
  - Cash balance in months of recurrent spending: end-2019: 1.5; pre-COVID: 1.2; post-COVID (2020 proj): 0.8 (2021: 0.5; 2022: 0.3)
  - SIG Deposit Account (SI$ millions): 140 (consistent across years shown); Broader cash balance examples: end-2019: 483; pre-COVID: 451; post-COVID (2020 proj): 346
- Balance of payments and reserves:
  - Current account balance (in US$ millions): 2020 proj: -271.1
  - Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2020 proj: -17.8
  - Gross official reserves (in US$ millions, end of period): 2020 proj: 465.9; 2021 proj: 426.5
  - Reserves (in months of next year's imports of GNFS): 2020 proj: 7.0; 2021 proj: 5.7
- Monetary and credit (annual percent change):
  - Credit to private sector: 2020 proj: -4.1
  - Broad money: 2020 proj: -15.6
  - Reserve money: 2020 proj: -13.8

*Source: Annex XXIV. Solomon Islands: Update for CCRT Debt Relief (IMF).*

### Annex XXVII. Togo: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Annex XXVII. Togo: Update for CCRT Debt Relief

### Recent Economic Developments
- COVID-19 continues to have a severe economic impact on Togo.
- Growth projections revised from 5.5 percent to 0 in 2020 and from 5.5 percent to 3 percent in 2021.
- The budget deficit in 2020 is expected to widen from 2 percent of GDP before COVID-19 to about 8 percent of GDP under the authorities’ supplementary budget.
- Revenue is falling (by more than 2 percent of GDP) due to slower economic growth and tax relief measures; expenditure is increasing due mostly to COVID measures.
- External financing needs widened by 1.6 percent of GDP relative to the last ECF program review; the remaining gap is 1.3 percent of GDP.

### Public health and macroeconomic policy response
- Authorities are implementing a comprehensive response plan focused on:
  - (i) containment and mitigation measures;
  - (ii) upgrade of the health system;
  - (iii) support to vulnerable households; and
  - (iv) tax measures to support the private sector and reduce the cost of imported medical equipment.
- Measures are authorized in a supplementary budget that reduced some non-priority outlays to create space for COVID-related spending.
- Staff estimate total COVID related spending amounted to about 1 percent of GDP by end-July.
- Togo has implemented stronger COVID measures relative to peer countries, which may have contributed to the lower COVID cases.

### Governance safeguards
- Financial contributions from donors are deposited in a special account at the central bank (BCEAO).
- Authorities reportedly restricted the use of some financing items in the supplementary budget to COVID actions.
- Discussions underway for an audit of COVID spending by the Auditor General and/or tracing of COVID spending through dedicated budget codes.

### IMF support status
- Togo had an ECF-supported program during 2017-20.
- The last review was completed in April 2020, which included an augmentation of access to address the impacts of COVID-19.
- The authorities plan to request emergency support under the RCF in 2020 to address immediate financing needs and allow sufficient time to prepare for an ECF in 2021.

### Upcoming CCRT-eligible debt service
- Togo has debt service of SDR 2.31 million falling due during October 14, 2020 to April 13, 2021, the maximum period covered by the 2nd tranche of debt service relief under the CCRT.

### COVID Related Fiscal Measures (percent of GDP) — FY2020 projections / Change
- Priority expenditures, of which: Pre-Covid 6.2; Current 7.2; Change 1.0
  - Health: Pre-Covid 2.4; Current 3.4; Change 1.0
  - Education & Social: Pre-Covid 3.8; Current 3.8; Change 0.0
- Other Covid-related spending: Pre-Covid 0.0; Current 2.8; Change 2.8
  - Covid prevention, containment & mgmt: Pre-Covid 0.0; Current 0.6; Change 0.6
  - Transfers to households: Pre-Covid 0.0; Current 0.5; Change 0.5
  - Contingent COVID spending: Pre-Covid 0.0; Current 1.7; Change 1.7
- Memorandum items:
  - Revenue measures for businesses: Pre-Covid 0.0; Current 2.0; Change 2.1
  - Revenue & expenditure impacts of weaker GDP: Pre-Covid 0.0; Current 1.5; Change 1.5
  - Additional security spending: Pre-Covid 0.0; Current 1.1; Change 1.1
  - Tax & duty exemptions for medical equipment: Pre-Covid 0.0; Current 0.2; Change 0.2
  - Additional grants from donors: Pre-Covid 0.0; Current -1.6; Change -1.6
- Total: Pre-Covid 6.2; Current 12.1; Change 5.9

### Staff assessment
- Staff assesses that Togo is pursuing appropriate macroeconomic policies to address the global pandemic.
- Staff assesses that the resources freed by the initial tranche of Fund debt service relief under the CCRT, and other support from the Fund, are being used to provide emergency health, and social and economic support to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the lives and livelihoods of people.

### Selected Economic and Financial Indicators (highlights, 2018–25)
- Real GDP: 2018 4.9; 2019 5.3; Pre-Covid 5.5; 2020 Proj. 0.0; 2021 Proj. 3.0; 2022 Proj. 4.5; 2023 Proj. 5.0; 2024 Proj. 5.5; 2025 Proj. 5.5
- Real GDP per capita: 2018 2.4; 2019 2.8; Pre-Covid 2.9; 2020 Proj. -2.4; 2021 Proj. 0.5; 2022 Proj. 2.0; 2023 Proj. 2.5; 2024 Proj. 3.0; 2025 Proj. 3.0
- GDP deflator (annual): 2018 1.7; 2019 2.1; Pre-Covid 2.8; 2020 Proj. 4.6; 2021 Proj. 4.4; 2022–2025 Proj. 2.9 each year
- Consumer price index (average): 2018 0.9; 2019 0.7; Pre-Covid 2.0; 2020 Proj. 1.4; 2021 Proj. 1.5; 2022 Proj. 2.2; 2023–2025 Proj. 2.0 each year
- GDP (CFAF billions): 2018 2,975; 2019 3,199; Pre-Covid 3,469; 2020 Proj. 3,346; 2021 Proj. 3,598; 2022 Proj. 3,869; 2023 Proj. 4,181; 2024 Proj. 4,539; 2025 Proj. 4,928
- Broad money (M2) (percent change): 2018 9.0; 2019 4.5; Pre-Covid 9.3; 2020 Proj. 9.3; 2021 Proj. 7.1; 2022 Proj. 8.9; 2023 Proj. 9.9; 2024 Proj. 10.3; 2025 Proj. 9.8
- Government: Total revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2018 23.9; 2019 23.4; Pre-Covid 24.0; 2020 Proj. 23.7; 2021 Proj. 23.7; 2022 Proj. 23.8; 2023 Proj. 24.1; 2024 Proj. 24.2; 2025 Proj. 24.8
- Government: Total expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP): 2018 24.7; 2019 24.5; Pre-Covid 26.0; 2020 Proj. 31.6; 2021 Proj. 27.2; 2022 Proj. 26.8; 2023 Proj. 26.0; 2024 Proj. 26.2; 2025 Proj. 26.7
- Overall balance (commitment basis, incl. grants) (percent of GDP): 2018 -0.8; 2019 -1.2; Pre-Covid -1.9; 2020 Proj. -7.9; 2021 Proj. -3.5; 2022 Proj. -3.0; 2023 Proj. -2.0; 2024 Proj. -1.9; 2025 Proj. -2.0
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2018 -3.5; 2019 -4.3; Pre-Covid -4.9; 2020 Proj. -6.1; 2021 Proj. -4.4; 2022 Proj. -4.7; 2023 Proj. -4.4; 2024 Proj. -4.2; 2025 Proj. -3.8
- External public debt (percent of GDP)2: 2018 20.5; 2019 23.7; Pre-Covid 23.1; 2020 Proj. 32.1; 2021 Proj. 30.8; 2022 Proj. 29.7; 2023 Proj. 28.2; 2024 Proj. 26.6; 2025 Proj. 25.1
- Total public debt (percent of GDP)4: 2018 76.2; 2019 70.9; Pre-Covid 66.0; 2020 Proj. 74.2; 2021 Proj. 71.7; 2022 Proj. 69.4; 2023 Proj. 66.0; 2024 Proj. 62.6; 2025 Proj. 59.6

*International Monetary Fund. Annex XXVII. Togo: Update for CCRT Debt Relief.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/pp/2020/english/ppea2020045.pdf_