## 3. The Future of Work in Sub-Saharan Africa

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---

### Key messages and policy implications
- Governments can facilitate and support the adjustment of economies and workers to the opportunities opened by the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
- Integration and connectivity are the key pillars of successful growth policies, including:
  - traditional and digital infrastructure;
  - an education system that keeps pace with changing skill requirements;
  - smart urbanization;
  - safety nets for a volatile labor market;
  - trade integration.

### The impact of technological change
- Nature of change:
  - The Fourth Industrial Revolution—automation, machine learning, and artificial intelligence—raises whether machines will replace workers.
  - Automation and falling prices of capital goods shift production toward capital and away from labor, particularly for routine tasks; artificial intelligence may take over high-skilled nonroutine jobs.
- Channels of effect for sub-Saharan Africa:
  - Direct: if automation takes hold in the region.
  - Indirect: via exports if automation leads to reshoring of production to advanced economies and mature emerging market economies.
- Historical perspective:
  - General-purpose technologies (steam engine, electricity, information and communication technologies) have reshaped work and production, producing large productivity gains and new employment opportunities after transition periods.
  - Transitions involved large-scale workforce movements across sectors (for example, agriculture to manufacturing, then to services in advanced economies).
- Uncertainty on job losses:
  - Estimates of job losses from AI, machine learning and robots range from 7 percent to 47 percent of the labor force (McKinsey Global Institute 2017; Frey and Osborne 2017; Nedelkoska and Quintini 2018; Borland and Coelli 2017).
- Starting conditions that matter:
  - Most countries lack a well-established manufacturing sector that provides job security and incomes.
  - Most employment is in agriculture and consumer services, often in the informal sector and characterized by income volatility.
  - Infrastructure typically falls short of growing economies’ needs.
  - The labor force is rapidly growing in sub-Saharan Africa, unlike advanced economies where labor force stabilization or decline provides an incentive to automate.

### Examples of technology adoption in sub-Saharan Africa
- Mobile networks have largely leapfrogged fixed lines due to low fixed costs and limited infrastructure needs.
- Use cases:
  - Mobile phones and smartphones in agriculture for weather, market information, seeding/fertilizing/harvesting advice, and pest identification/treatment.
  - Drones delivering critical medical supplies to rural health centers.
  - 3-D printers capable of building a house in a single day at low costs.
  - Ghana using GPS information to establish addresses where maps and street names or numbers are incomplete.
  - South Africa using biometric information and payment cards to deliver social grants.
  - Mobile money, developed and introduced in Kenya, providing access to financial services for millions previously excluded.

### Modeling the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (two-region model)
- Model setup:
  - World divided into two tradeable regions: an advanced economy region and a low-income region (such as sub-Saharan Africa).
  - Production uses traditional capital, labor, and “robots” (broadly defined to include automation, machine learning, and AI).
  - Advanced economy has higher overall productivity than sub-Saharan Africa, creating a per capita income gap.
- Core mechanism and counterfactual (doubling robot productivity):
  - If labor and robots are complements:
    - Increase in per capita GDP is larger in sub-Saharan Africa than in advanced economies (convergence).
    - Sub-Saharan Africa gains because lower wages make it profitable to invest in robots combined with relatively cheap labor.
    - Wages increase more than the stock of capital, leading to a higher labor share in both regions, with a larger increase for sub-Saharan Africa.
  - If labor and robots are substitutes:
    - Increase in per capita GDP is larger in advanced economies than in sub-Saharan Africa (divergence).
    - Investing in robots is most profitable where wages are high, inducing capital flows out of sub-Saharan Africa during the transition.
    - Capital and robot stock increase by more than wages, leading to a fall in labor share in both regions; the fall in labor share is larger in advanced economies.
    - Higher growth in advanced economies under substitution is likely associated with higher inequality.
- Additional insights:
  - Labor shares were broadly constant in advanced economies for decades despite large productivity gains, suggesting longer-term complementarity between technology and labor.
  - Labor shares in sub-Saharan Africa have remained stable since the 1950s, but many countries have seen labor shares decline since the 1980s, with part of the decrease associated with technological change.
  - Introducing overall productivity increases can have a bigger positive impact on incomes than improvements confined to robots alone.
  - Policies to improve infrastructure, education, access to finance, and the business environment—typically associated with increases in overall productivity—are important to offset possible adverse effects of automation.

### Impact of automation on exports
- Two export vulnerability indices constructed using automatability measures mapped from occupations to industries to export goods:
  - Frey-Osborne-based index: sub-Saharan Africa’s exports, and those of low-income and developing countries generally, are relatively more vulnerable to automation.
  - Brynjolfsson, Mitchell, and Rock-based index: indicates the opposite—sub-Saharan Africa does not seem as vulnerable to automation.
- Reason for divergence:
  - Frey and Osborne focus on technologies that replace routine jobs typical of low-end manufacturing (bulk of noncommodity exports from sub-Saharan Africa, e.g., food manufacturing).
  - Brynjolfsson, Mitchell, and Rock emphasize machine learning that is more likely to replace nonroutine cognitive tasks used intensively in advanced economies’ exports (e.g., electronics and machinery).
- Implication:
  - High uncertainty in assessing automation’s impact; outcomes depend on the pace of technological progress and whether technology complements or substitutes different types of labor.

### Scenario analysis to 2040
- Purpose and method:
  - Scenario analysis constructs alternative plausible stories under Knightian uncertainty; approach follows the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach and involved expert interviews and a facilitated workshop.
- Main uncertainties shaping the next two decades:
  - Uncertainty 1: The impact of technological change (automation, machine learning, AI).
  - Uncertainty 2: The course of global economic integration.
  - Uncertainty 3: The speed and severity of climate change.
  - Underlying certainty: Sub-Saharan Africa’s growing population and labor force.
    - Population projection: nearly double in the next two decades, from approximately 900 million in 2015 to 1.7 billion in 2040.
    - Employment challenge: as the labor force increases, there is a need to create 20 million jobs each year.
- Scenario 1: "Africa Arisen"
  - Technological change is favorable and largely complementary to humans, including many low-skilled workers.
  - Global economy continues on a path of deeper integration.
  - Technological advances mitigate adverse impacts of climate change.
  - Sub-Saharan African entrepreneurs integrate firms into global value chains; services trade becomes the new goods trade.
  - Result: an emerging vibrant middle class but high job volatility in a gig economy.
  - Narrative highlights: transition from agricultural to urban living, technology-driven agricultural productivity gains, concentrated digital infrastructure, improved education quality aided by online materials, greater demand in science, technology, engineering, and math, and growing care economy jobs.
- Scenario 2: "Africa for Africa"
  - Technological change displaces workers in advanced and emerging economies, triggering inward-looking policies and reversal of global integration.
  - Sub-Saharan Africa is less affected directly by automation but faces reduced external demand and financing.
  - Governments implement the Continental Free Trade Agreement (established in 2023 in the scenario) and invest in regional infrastructure, creating a common market of more than 1.7 billion people by 2040.
  - Regional integration spurs growth; entrepreneurship grows via diaspora return and low-capital technologies (e.g., 3-D printing).
  - Result: gains in food self-sufficiency, small-scale manufacturing, and services innovation, but persistent poverty, high youth unemployment, informality, strained urban infrastructure, and limited fiscal resources.
- Scenario 3: "Africa Adrift"
  - Rapid automation reshapes advanced and emerging economies; reshoring reduces manufacturing opportunities in Africa.
  - Climate change hits harder and faster than expected; global cooperation fails to mitigate emissions.
  - Development strategies investing in infrastructure to attract manufacturing are thwarted, producing stranded assets, high debt, and low fiscal space.
  - Result: stagnation, dominance of informal subsistence agriculture and low-productivity services, strong incentives to migrate abroad, but limited absorption by automated advanced economies.
  - Narrative highlights: water shortages in cities in the 2020s, cocoa becoming unfeasible by 2030, rising crime and terrorism, private security as the largest employer.

### Policies to create future-proof jobs
- Overarching goal:
  - Maintain openness to alternative growth strategies and embrace opportunities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
- Get connected (digital and physical infrastructure):
  - Connectivity includes roads, railways, ports, digital infrastructure, and systems for data storage and exchange.
  - Digital infrastructure is critical to boosting agricultural productivity and climate mitigation efforts.
  - Public–private partnerships will be required given limited fiscal space.
  - Key statistics:
    - Internet penetration in sub-Saharan Africa is the lowest in the world—"less than half the global average" (2016 reference).
    - A few countries (Kenya, Nigeria, Seychelles) have made substantial progress with penetration levels "of close to 50 percent, slightly above the world average".
    - The cost of a fixed broadband connection is highest in sub-Saharan Africa compared to other regions; mobile broadband costs are comparable in US dollar terms.
    - Once costs are scaled by gross national income, sub-Saharan Africa has the "least affordable mobile broadband".
- Invest in flexible education systems:
  - Prioritize digital literacy, adaptability, and lifelong learning; place higher premium on secondary education.
  - Ensure full enrollment and introduce technology in every classroom.
  - Design education systems to be flexible given uncertainty over which specific skills will complement or develop technology.
  - Empirical context:
    - Sub-Saharan Africa has made important gains in increasing primary completion rates but has not kept up with other regions on secondary education.
    - Secondary enrollment rates "remain well below other regions".
- Smart urbanization:
  - Focus on urban planning and development to enable entrepreneurs to drive technological adaptation and innovation.
  - Functioning cities are essential given population pressures.
- Develop safety nets for a volatile labor market:
  - Expand safety nets that provide income security; leverage technology (biometric identification, fintech) for targeting and administration.
  - Revenue mobilization is key to create the fiscal space needed for effective safety nets.
- Deepen trade integration:
  - Implement the Continental Free Trade Agreement regionwide and move swiftly on trade facilitation and regional infrastructure.
  - A more integrated market can provide scale for local firms and attract foreign direct investment.
  - Regional trade context:
    - Trade integration in sub-Saharan Africa "has almost tripled since the 1980s but remains at low levels compared to other regions."
    - Physical distances and socioeconomic differences—including language and colonial history—are important barriers to trade in sub-Saharan Africa.

### Conclusion
- Overarching finding:
  - Technological disruptions throughout history have yielded dramatic improvements in living conditions, but transition periods were often difficult, in particular for those in the declining sectors and occupations.
  - The overarching policy challenge is to support the new and emerging sectors that drive growth.
  - If successful, sub-Saharan Africa can create the required 20 million good-quality jobs per year for its young and growing population and make progress toward meeting the Sustainable Development Goals.
- Uncertainty and policy timing:
  - While there are many uncertainties as to what the future of work will look like, today’s policy choices shape outcomes.
  - Development strategies must adapt to the demands and prospects of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
- Key pillars for successful growth policies:
  - Traditional and digital infrastructure.
  - An education system that keeps pace with changing skill requirements.
  - Smart urbanization.
  - Safety nets for a volatile labor market.
  - Trade integration.
- Export pattern statistics (Figure 3.11):
  - Numeric values associated with exports of goods to different regions, 2017: 21, 56, 55, 18, 70.
  - Legend/context labels: "Percent of exports of goods to the world" and "Intra-region SSA Asia America's MENA Europe".
  - Note: MENA = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = sub-Saharan Africa.

*Source: ssareo-10-18-ch3 - 3. THE FUTURE OF WORK IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA*

### 3. The Future of Work in Sub-Saharan Africa

### 3. The Future of Work in Sub-Saharan Africa

### Key messages and policy implications
- Governments can facilitate and support the adjustment of economies and workers to the opportunities opened by the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
- Integration and connectivity are the key pillars of successful growth policies, including:
  - traditional and digital infrastructure;
  - an education system that keeps pace with changing skill requirements;
  - smart urbanization;
  - safety nets for a volatile labor market;
  - trade integration.

### The impact of technological change: will machines replace workers?
- The Fourth Industrial Revolution—automation, machine learning, and artificial intelligence—raises the question of whether machines will replace workers.
- Automation and falling prices of capital goods shift production toward capital and away from labor, particularly for routine tasks; artificial intelligence may take over high-skilled nonroutine jobs.
- Sub-Saharan Africa can be affected:
  - directly if automation takes hold in the region;
  - indirectly via exports if automation leads to reshoring of production to advanced economies and mature emerging market economies.
- Historical perspective:
  - General-purpose technologies (steam engine, electricity, information and communication technologies) have reshaped work and production, producing large productivity gains and new employment opportunities after transition periods.
  - Transitions involved large-scale workforce movements across sectors (for example, agriculture to manufacturing, then to services in advanced economies).
- Uncertainty over job losses: estimates of job losses from AI, machine learning and robots range from 7 percent to 47 percent of the labor force (McKinsey Global Institute 2017; Frey and Osborne 2017; Nedelkoska and Quintini 2018; Borland and Coelli 2017).
- Starting conditions in sub-Saharan Africa differ markedly:
  - Most countries lack a well-established manufacturing sector that provides job security and incomes.
  - Most employment is in agriculture and consumer services, often in the informal sector and characterized by income volatility.
  - Infrastructure typically falls short of growing economies’ needs.
  - The labor force is rapidly growing in sub-Saharan Africa, unlike advanced economies where labor force stabilization or decline provides an incentive to automate.

### Examples of technology adoption in sub-Saharan Africa
- Mobile networks have largely leapfrogged fixed lines due to low fixed costs and limited infrastructure needs.
- Use cases highlighted:
  - Mobile phones and smartphones in agriculture for weather, market information, seeding/fertilizing/harvesting advice, and pest identification/treatment.
  - Drones delivering critical medical supplies to rural health centers.
  - 3-D printers capable of building a house in a single day at low costs.
  - Ghana using GPS information to establish addresses where maps and street names or numbers are incomplete.
  - South Africa using biometric information and payment cards to deliver social grants.
  - Mobile money, developed and introduced in Kenya, providing access to financial services for millions previously excluded.

### Modeling the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (two-region model)
- Model setup:
  - World divided into two tradeable regions: an advanced economy region and a low-income region (such as sub-Saharan Africa).
  - Production uses traditional capital, labor, and “robots” (broadly defined to include automation, machine learning, and AI).
  - Advanced economy has higher overall productivity than sub-Saharan Africa, creating a per capita income gap.
- Core mechanism:
  - The nature of technological change—whether robots and labor are substitutes or complements—crucially determines whether sub-Saharan Africa achieves income convergence or falls further behind.
  - Examples:
    - Substitution: robots replace workers in routine tasks (e.g., assembly line robots installing headlights).
    - Complementarity: robots augment workers (e.g., digital agriculture apps improving farmer productivity).
- Model counterfactual: doubling robot productivity leads firms to invest in robots and physical capital and increases production; both regions see higher per capita GDP in the long run, but outcomes differ by complementarity vs. substitution.
  - If labor and robots are complements:
    - Increase in per capita GDP is larger in sub-Saharan Africa than in advanced economies (convergence).
    - Sub-Saharan Africa gains because lower wages make it profitable to invest in robots combined with relatively cheap labor.
    - Wages increase more than the stock of capital, leading to a higher labor share in both regions, with a larger increase for sub-Saharan Africa.
  - If labor and robots are substitutes:
    - Increase in per capita GDP is larger in advanced economies than in sub-Saharan Africa (divergence).
    - Investing in robots is most profitable where wages are high, inducing capital flows out of sub-Saharan Africa during the transition.
    - Capital and robot stock increase by more than wages, leading to a fall in labor share in both regions; the fall in labor share is larger in advanced economies.
    - Higher growth in advanced economies under substitution is likely associated with higher inequality.
- Historical and empirical notes:
  - Labor shares were broadly constant in advanced economies for decades despite large productivity gains, suggesting longer-term complementarity between technology and labor.
  - Labor shares in sub-Saharan Africa have remained stable since the 1950s, but many countries have seen labor shares decline since the 1980s, with part of the decrease associated with technological change.
- Other model insights:
  - Introducing overall productivity increases can have a bigger positive impact on incomes than improvements confined to robots alone.
  - Policies to improve infrastructure, education, access to finance, and the business environment—typically associated with increases in overall productivity—are important to offset possible adverse effects of automation.

### Impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on exports from sub-Saharan Africa
- Two export vulnerability indices to automation were constructed using automatability measures from Frey and Osborne (2017) and Brynjolfsson, Mitchell, and Rock (2018), mapped from occupations to industries to export goods.
- Results diverge:
  - Frey-Osborne-based index indicates sub-Saharan Africa’s exports, and those of low-income and developing countries generally, are relatively more vulnerable to automation.
  - Brynjolfsson, Mitchell, and Rock-based index indicates the opposite: sub-Saharan Africa does not seem as vulnerable to automation.
- Reason for divergence:
  - Frey and Osborne focus on technologies that replace routine jobs typical of low-end manufacturing (bulk of noncommodity exports from sub-Saharan Africa, e.g., food manufacturing).
  - Brynjolfsson, Mitchell, and Rock emphasize machine learning that is more likely to replace nonroutine cognitive tasks used intensively in advanced economies’ exports (e.g., electronics and machinery).
- Implication: High uncertainty in assessing automation’s impact; outcomes depend on the pace of technological progress and whether technology complements or substitutes different types of labor.

### Scenario analysis: exploring the future of work in sub-Saharan Africa
- Rationale:
  - Scenario analysis constructs alternative plausible stories of the future under Knightian uncertainty where quantifiable probabilities cannot be attached.
  - Scenarios help identify early warning signs and design timely policy responses; they can reveal policies that are robust across multiple futures (“future-proof” policies).
- Methodology note:
  - The approach follows the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach and involved expert interviews and a facilitated workshop.
- Main uncertainties and one underlying trend shaping the future over the next two decades:
  - Uncertainty 1: The impact of technological change (automation, machine learning, AI).
    - Will robots replace humans in some, many, or most jobs? Will robots complement humans and enable reduced work hours and more leisure?
    - What happens to exports if advanced and emerging economies reshore manufacturing with automation?
  - Uncertainty 2: The course of global economic integration.
    - Will globalization continue, enabling deeper integration and interconnectedness?
    - Or will a backlash lead to global economic disintegration, restricting access to global markets and export-driven growth?
  - Uncertainty 3: The speed and severity of climate change.
    - IMF estimates suggest higher temperatures in tropical low-income countries have a long-lasting impact, particularly through agricultural and manufacturing sectors, while services are impacted less.
    - Key questions: How fast will adverse impacts hit? Will certain regions become uninhabitable, leading to large-scale migration? What mitigation policies will countries implement?
  - Underlying certainty: Sub-Saharan Africa’s growing population and labor force.
    - Population projection: nearly double in the next two decades, from approximately 900 million in 2015 to 1.7 billion in 2040.
    - Employment challenge: as the labor force increases, there is a need to create 20 million jobs each year.

*Prepared by Aidar Abdychev, Cristian Alonso, Emre Alper, Dominique Desruelle, Siddharth Kothari, Yun Liu, Mathilde Perinet, Sidra Rehman, Axel Schimmelpfennig, and Preya Sharma.*

### 3. THE FUTURE OF WORK IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

### 3. THE FUTURE OF WORK IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

### Scenarios of development to 2040
- Scenario 1: "Africa Arisen"
  - Technological change is favorable and largely complementary to humans, including many low-skilled workers.
  - Global economy continues on a path of deeper integration.
  - Technological advances mitigate adverse impacts of climate change.
  - Sub-Saharan African entrepreneurs integrate firms into global value chains; services trade becomes the new goods trade.
  - Result: an emerging vibrant middle class but high job volatility in a gig economy.
  - Narrative highlighted: transition from agricultural to urban living, technology-driven agricultural productivity gains, concentrated digital infrastructure, improved education quality aided by online materials, greater demand in science, technology, engineering, and math, and growing care economy jobs.

- Scenario 2: "Africa for Africa"
  - Technological change displaces workers in advanced and emerging economies, triggering inward-looking policies and reversal of global integration.
  - Sub-Saharan Africa is less affected directly by automation but faces reduced external demand and financing.
  - Governments implement the Continental Free Trade Agreement (established in 2023 in the scenario) and invest in regional infrastructure, creating a common market of more than 1.7 billion people by 2040.
  - Regional integration spurs growth; entrepreneurship grows via diaspora return and low-capital technologies (e.g., 3-D printing).
  - Result: gains in food self-sufficiency, small-scale manufacturing, and services innovation, but persistent poverty, high youth unemployment, informality, strained urban infrastructure, and limited fiscal resources.

- Scenario 3: "Africa Adrift"
  - Rapid automation reshapes advanced and emerging economies; reshoring reduces manufacturing opportunities in Africa.
  - Climate change hits harder and faster than expected; global cooperation fails to mitigate emissions.
  - Development strategies investing in infrastructure to attract manufacturing are thwarted, producing stranded assets, high debt, and low fiscal space.
  - Result: stagnation, dominance of informal subsistence agriculture and low-productivity services, strong incentives to migrate abroad, but limited absorption by automated advanced economies.
  - Narrative highlighted: water shortages in cities in the 2020s, cocoa becoming unfeasible by 2030, rising crime and terrorism, private security as the largest employer.

### What policies are needed to create future-proof jobs?
- Overarching goal:
  - Maintain openness to alternative growth strategies and embrace opportunities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
  - Common themes across scenarios point to a few key policy areas.

### Get connected (digital and physical infrastructure)
- Findings and imperatives:
  - Connectivity extends beyond roads, railways, and ports to include digital infrastructure and systems for data storage and exchange.
  - Where adequate digital infrastructure and supportive business environments exist, new businesses increase efficiency, especially in services.
  - Digital infrastructure is likely critical to boosting agricultural productivity and climate mitigation efforts.
  - Public–private partnerships will be required given limited fiscal space.

- Key statistics preserved from the source:
  - Internet penetration in sub-Saharan Africa is the lowest in the world—"less than half the global average" (2016 reference).
  - A few countries (Kenya, Nigeria, Seychelles) have made substantial progress with penetration levels "of close to 50 percent, slightly above the world average".
  - The cost of a fixed broadband connection is highest in sub-Saharan Africa compared to other regions; mobile broadband costs are comparable in US dollar terms.
  - Once costs are scaled by gross national income, sub-Saharan Africa has the "least affordable mobile broadband".

### Invest in flexible education systems
- Policy focus:
  - Prioritize digital literacy, adaptability, and lifelong learning; place higher premium on secondary education.
  - Ensure full enrollment and introduce technology in every classroom.
  - Design education systems to be flexible given uncertainty over which specific skills will complement or develop technology.

- Empirical context from the source:
  - Sub-Saharan Africa has made important gains in increasing primary completion rates but has not kept up with other regions on secondary education.
  - Secondary enrollment rates "remain well below other regions".

### Smart urbanization
- Rationale and policy actions:
  - The hotbeds of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are situated in cities; sub-Saharan African cities currently often lack sufficient infrastructure and are oriented more toward local consumer services.
  - Strong focus on urban planning and development is needed to enable entrepreneurs to drive technological adaptation and innovation.
  - Functioning cities are essential given population pressures.

### Develop safety nets for a volatile labor market
- Observations and recommendations:
  - Frequent job transitions and income volatility may characterize a gig-style world of work; many in sub-Saharan Africa already face such volatility.
  - Expand safety nets that provide income security; leverage technology (biometric identification, fintech) for targeting and administration.
  - Revenue mobilization is key to create the fiscal space needed for effective safety nets.

### Deepen trade integration
- Rationale and policy steps:
  - Further regional trade integration would be a driver of development, especially if the global environment becomes less conducive.
  - Implement the Continental Free Trade Agreement regionwide and move swiftly on trade facilitation and regional infrastructure.
  - A more integrated market can provide scale for local firms and attract foreign direct investment.

- Regional trade context:
  - Trade integration in sub-Saharan Africa "has almost tripled since the 1980s but remains at low levels compared to other regions."
  - Physical distances and socioeconomic differences—including language and colonial history—are important barriers to trade in sub-Saharan Africa.

*Source: ssareo-10-18-ch3 - 3. THE FUTURE OF WORK IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA*

### CONCLUSION

### CONCLUSION

### Overarching finding
- Technological disruptions throughout history have yielded dramatic improvements in living conditions, but transition periods were often difficult, in particular for those in the declining sectors and occupations.
- The overarching policy challenge is to support the new and emerging sectors that drive growth.
- If successful, sub-Saharan Africa can create the required 20 million good-quality jobs per year for its young and growing population and make progress toward meeting the Sustainable Development Goals.

### Uncertainty and policy timing
- While there are many uncertainties as to what the future of work will look like, today’s policy choices shape outcomes.
- Development strategies must adapt to the demands and prospects of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

### Key pillars for successful growth policies
- Integration and connectivity are the key pillars of successful growth policies. This includes:
  - Traditional and digital infrastructure.
  - An education system that keeps pace with changing skill requirements.
  - Smart urbanization.
  - Safety nets for a volatile labor market.
  - Trade integration.

### Export pattern statistics (Figure 3.11)
- The figure lists numeric values associated with exports of goods to different regions, 2017: 21, 56, 55, 18, 70.
- Legend/context labels shown: "Percent of exports of goods to the world" and "Intra-region SSA Asia America's MENA Europe".
- Source noted on figure: Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS). Note: MENA = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = sub-Saharan Africa.

*CONCLUSION — Chapter 3, The Future of Work in Sub-Saharan Africa (excerpt provided).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2018/october/pdf/ssareo-10-18-ch3.pdf_