## Regional Economic Outlook (MCD) — Dataset overview (mreost1016) ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Regional Economic Outlook (MCD) — Dataset overview (mreost1016)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/mreost1016.xlsx) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/mreost1016.xlsx.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/mreost1016.xlsx.json) --- ### Coverage and key assumptions - Dataset covers 31 MCD countries and territories: "Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, the Kyrgyz Republic, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, the West Bank and Gaza, and Yemen." - "Somalia is excluded from all regional aggregates due to a lack of reliable data." - "2011 data for Sudan exclude South Sudan after July 9; data for 2012 onward pertain to the current Sudan." - "All data for Syria are excluded for 2011 onward due to the uncertain political situation." - Calendar vs fiscal year notes: All data refer to calendar years except: Afghanistan, Iran, Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan (with an exception for inflation). - Projections are based on information "available through early September 2016" and assume "established policies of national authorities will be maintained." - Working assumptions explicitly reported: - Oil price will average "US$43.0 a barrel in 2016 and US$50.6 in 2017." - Six-month LIBOR on U.S.-dollar deposits will average "1.0 percent in 2016 and 1.3 percent in 2017." - "The 2016 and 2017 data in the figures and tables are projections." ### Real GDP growth (Table 1 — annual change; percent) - MENAP (regional aggregate) growth: - Average 2000–12: 5.187575735251948 - 2013: 2.374008771932373 - 2014: 2.736534906053295 - 2015: 2.33913650933881 - 2016 (projection): 3.380278715875527 - 2017 (projection): 3.366141299600649 - Selected country projections: - Iran, I.R. of: 2016: 4.47164561407415; 2017: 4.0658577499027375 - Iraq: 2016: 10.299781082151876; 2017: 0.46515228916170065 - Kuwait: 2016: 2.4937575459843613; 2017: 2.6214497834504566 - Algeria: 2016: 3.574072131252168; 2017: 2.912282190805106 - Bahrain: 2016: 2.102024925282235; 2017: 1.7684976678804687 ### Nominal GDP (Table 2 — Billions of U.S. dollars) - MENAP totals: - Average 2000–12: 1944.6117142184823 - 2013: 3393.7792584966437 - 2014: 3470.0983552369535 - 2015: 3133.4287424489894 - 2016 (projection): 2536.8823114176726 - 2017 (projection): 2757.5239124455074 - Selected countries (2016 / 2017): - Iran: 412.3040137035663 / 438.33405388636226 - Iraq: 156.32310735715677 / 173.58904857574746 - Kuwait: 110.45503534197255 / 124.8694267729717 - Algeria: 168.31827608232692 / 178.43068586857663 - Bahrain: 31.8231163794102 / 33.917856939312955 ### Oil and non-oil dynamics (Tables 3–5) - Non-Oil Real GDP growth for MENAP oil exporters: - Average 2000–12: 7.116309525399706 - 2013: 5.19310212452739 - 2014: 4.010390089975331 - 2015: 0.5553150771761602 - 2016 (projection): 1.4296774991748182 - 2017 (projection): 3.0621203204310703 - Crude oil production (millions of barrels per day) — MENAP oil exporters: - Average 2000–12: 23.97515485900262 - 2013: 24.850713999980286 - 2014: 24.699195734246576 - 2015: 25.68873432802836 - 2016 (projection): 27.274331123936197 - 2017 (projection): 27.98180256972421 - Crude oil exports (millions of barrels per day) — MENAP oil exporters: - Average 2000–12: 17.729015101338685 - 2013: 18.939425622896625 - 2014: 17.81215738279023 - 2015: 18.56054034994976 - 2016 (projection): 19.92279491248156 - 2017 (projection): 20.305257387318616 - Country examples, crude oil production (2016 / 2017): - Iran, I.R. of: 3.63166666666667 / 3.7769333333333304 - Iraq: 4.21866599426907 / 4.2486659942690705 - Kuwait: 2.91312 / 2.9713824 ### Breakeven oil prices (Table 6 — U.S. dollars per barrel; Fiscal Breakeven Oil Price) - Algeria: 2013: 108.13565800107; 2014: 135.327321971475; 2015: 111.161882039193; 2016 (projection): 90.6374023750056; 2017 (projection): 86.6139727625126 - Bahrain: 2013: 130.358943687098; 2014: 122.542263034063; 2015: 106.303400288582; 2016 (projection): 93.7539524386652; 2017 (projection): 92.3341660708139 - Iran, I.R. of: 2013: 115.788284141637; 2014: 99.9933690903037; 2015: 60.1201487934185; 2016 (projection): 55.2870504119806; 2017 (projection): 60.6729660449663 - Iraq: 2013: 114.592468621712; 2014: 113.227669319529; 2015: 64.7423593050404; 2016 (projection): 58.3104278775458; 2017 (projection): 54.0102186705003 - Kuwait: 2013: 42.5160460301885; 2014: 55.7980503548391; 2015: 48.3408656262356; 2016 (projection): 47.763435059426; 2017 (projection): 47.6988591490595 ### Inflation and core inflation (Tables 7–8; year average; percent) - MENAP headline CPI: - Average 2000–12: 6.802789279278263 - 2013: 9.977914799372686 - 2014: 6.9463718559789 - 2015: 5.873273895349189 - 2016 (projection): 5.607992112327939 - 2017 (projection): 6.053071327821613 - MENAP oil exporters headline CPI: - Average 2000–12: 7.454924808443675 - 2016 (projection): 4.7495327956278 - 2017 (projection): 4.23310209703159 - Selected countries headline CPI (2016 / 2017): - Iran, I.R. of: 7.356805275691679 / 7.221153846153854 - Kuwait: 3.4000000000003014 / 3.799999999999916 - Algeria: 5.900000000000204 / 4.8000000000000025 - Core CPI: - MENAP (Average 2000–12): 6.949961985057803 - MENAP core 2016 (projection): 4.015669636202901; 2017: "..." - MENAP oil exporters core 2016 (projection): 4.144943277805686; 2017 (projection): 1.6408557985817496 - Iran core 2016 (projection): 4.147443385067443; 2017 (projection): 0.4032920185490398 ### Monetary aggregates and banking indicators - Broad money growth (Table 9 — annual change; percent): - MENAP: Average 2000–12: 17.47941927769576; 2016 (projection): 7.639771859636489; 2017 (projection): 8.427792169856927 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): 5.298354426621039; 2017 (projection): 6.471466671773227 - Iran, I.R. of 2016 (projection): 12.520470425442834; 2017 (projection): 10.152136890848684 - Banking indicators (sampled tables with periodic timestamps): Table 25 (Capital Adequacy Ratios), Table 26 (Return on Assets), Table 27 (Nonperforming Loans) include quarter-end observations through 2016-06-30 for selected countries and aggregates (some entries "." indicating missing). ### Fiscal positions (Tables 10–16) - Central government net lending/borrowing (Table 10 — percent of GDP): - MENAP: Average 2000–12: 1.9066767694668498; 2015: -7.611323184187587; 2016 (projection): -7.304056554163823; 2017 (projection): -5.017827546652738 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): -8.281269111171929; 2017 (projection): -5.564827852887839 - Kuwait: 2016 (projection): -3.628807425068327; 2017 (projection): 3.200316710198613 - Iraq: 2016 (projection): -14.109385884647727; 2017 (projection): -5.077119271137235 - General government fiscal balance (Table 11 — percent of GDP): - MENAP: 2015: -8.765608251574244; 2016 (projection): -8.477380787615857; 2017 (projection): -6.043255161453635 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): -9.195663239967358; 2017 (projection): -6.166878071582531 - Kuwait 2016 (projection): -3.628807425068327; 2017 (projection): 3.200316710198613 - Iran, I.R. of 2016 (projection): -1.067463808328248; 2017 (projection): -1.038785881466629 - General government total revenue excluding grants (Table 12 — percent of GDP): - MENAP 2016 (projection): 23.241581194306956; 2017 (projection): 24.191239214780627 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): 25.56696853258884; 2017 (projection): 26.288364170263478 - Kuwait: 2016 (projection): 52.82260710393321; 2017 (projection): 54.95527766747639 - Iran, I.R. of: 2016 (projection): 16.01645863932203; 2017 (projection): 15.951992853663896 - Non-oil fiscal balance and non-oil revenue for oil exporters (Tables 13–14 — percent of non-oil GDP): - MENAP oil exporters non-oil fiscal balance 2016 (projection): -30.51155961539949; 2017 (projection): -29.13534187547957 - MENAP oil exporters non-oil revenue 2016 (projection): 13.38878610751384; 2017 (projection): 13.039488825840735 - Kuwait non-oil fiscal balance 2016 (projection): -65.61930202005658; 2017 (projection): -62.57279684117057 - Iran non-oil fiscal balance 2016 (projection): -8.138104517965882; 2017 (projection): -7.375867386481695 - Government expenditure and net lending (Table 15 — percent of GDP): - MENAP 2016 (projection): 34.78758608129395; 2017 (projection): 32.89042754420892 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): 38.93623719278762; 2017 (projection): 36.05459558131249 - Iraq 2016 (projection): 97.60648109670109; 2017 (projection): 87.89457085787731 - Total government gross debt (Table 16 — percent of GDP): - MENAP 2016 (projection): 43.032242858717275; 2017 (projection): 44.479990800022925 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): 26.199940135737506; 2017 (projection): 28.84841355387081 - Bahrain 2016 (projection): 75.15666461955823; 2017 (projection): 82.25330862939727 - Kuwait 2016 (projection): 18.26207928695899; 2017 (projection): 22.442728241571178 - Iran 2016 (projection): 14.859776380193516; 2017 (projection): 15.002791686447086 ### External sector (Tables 18–24) - Exports of goods and services (Table 18 — Billions of U.S. dollars): - MENAP 2016 (projection): 1060.3377581878153; 2017 (projection): 1186.9380307202755 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): 904.9360937874683; 2017 (projection): 1019.7017180470452 - Iran 2016 (projection): 95.22347711605337; 2017 (projection): 102.96673278626622 - Iraq 2016 (projection): 48.36631195654014; 2017 (projection): 60.94818419137902 - Imports of goods and services (Table 19 — Billions of U.S. dollars): - MENAP 2016 (projection): -1163.2743859068414; 2017 (projection): -1232.4694136525393 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): -904.4140440918817; 2017 (projection): -963.2051466632665 - Iran 2016 (projection): -80.5366423818518; 2017 (projection): -91.04549724357831 - Current account balance (Table 20 — Billions of U.S. dollars): - MENAP 2016 (projection): -121.64765322039919; 2017 (projection): -69.09824636776855 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): -96.77618521300319; 2017 (projection): -43.185573610119164 - Iran 2016 (projection): 17.2004164574059; 2017 (projection): 14.5823049826903 - Iraq 2016 (projection): -16.8672843859592; 2017 (projection): -6.19812278123393 - Current account balance (Table 21 — Percent of GDP): - MENAP 2016 (projection): -4.553535272214223; 2017 (projection): -2.6495529540136857 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): -4.441282406987382; 2017 (projection): -1.8213947658654426 - Iran 2016 (projection): 4.171780018074833; 2017 (projection): 3.3267561243304065 - Gross official reserves (Table 22 — Billions of U.S. dollars): - MENAP 2016 (projection): 1242.216548780599; 2017 (projection): 1207.6085673518953 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): 1112.2994148111243; 2017 (projection): 1068.2344507469188 - Iran 2016 (projection): 156.026917405527; 2017 (projection): 178.75694634613 - Iraq 2016 (projection): 42.2728296257313; 2017 (projection): 41.306686863379895 - Algeria 2016 (projection): 120.178337588145; 2017 (projection): 103.064115051685 - Gross official reserves (Table 24 — Months of imports): - MENAP 2016 (projection): 11.484033512937286; 2017 (projection): 10.796688621367286 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): 13.075837983271596; 2017 (projection): 12.178649034145161 - Iran 2016 (projection): 20.56469639412491; 2017 (projection): 22.329050536958082 - Iraq 2016 (projection): 7.531572153446826; 2017 (projection): 7.058559844738308 ### External debt and reserves adequacy (Tables 23–24) - Total gross external debt (Table 23 — percent of GDP): - MENAP 2016 (projection): 35.59805838179833; 2017 (projection): 36.74652582828179 - MENAP oil exporters 2016 (projection): 35.07524818661453; 2017 (projection): 35.168823624680606 - Iraq 2016 (projection): 45.45776570192013; 2017 (projection): 43.62872891381207 - Kuwait 2016 (projection): 41.301756180084624; 2017 (projection): 39.17994903118237 - Reserves-to-imports (months) (Table 24): See "Gross official reserves" months values above for adequacy context. *Dataset: mreost1016 (Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia — statistical appendix; projections based on information available through early September 2016).* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/mreost1016.xlsx_