## MENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Risks to the Recovery Persist

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### Growth recovery remains fragile
- Regional growth is estimated at 4.2 percent in 2017.
- Projected growth is 4.7 percent in 2018 and 5 percent on average during 2019–23.
- Strengthening euro area outlook will support exports, remittances, foreign direct investment, and tourism.
- Downside growth pressures include:
  - Persistent conflicts and regional spillovers.
  - Security concerns.
  - Weaker-than-anticipated public investment (Afghanistan, Jordan).
  - Delays in implementation or completion of structural reforms (Jordan, Morocco, Pakistan, Tunisia).
  - Political and policy uncertainty (Lebanon, Pakistan).
- The outlook has softened slightly since the October 2017 Regional Economic Outlook.

### Country-level outlook highlights
- Egypt:
  - Growth projected to rise to 5.2 percent in FY2018 (from 4.2 percent in FY2017).
  - Growth projected to accelerate to 5.5 percent in FY2019, aided by an increase in gas production.
- Pakistan:
  - Estimated growth of 5.6 percent in FY2018 (from 5.3 percent in FY2017).
  - Projected to moderate to 4.7 percent in FY2019 due to macroeconomic vulnerabilities and domestic policy slippages.
- Sudan:
  - Growth expected to advance to 3.7 percent in 2018 (from 3.2 percent in 2017).
  - Projected to slow to 3.5 percent in 2019.
- Tunisia:
  - Growth expected to lift to 2.4 percent in 2018 (from 1.9 percent in 2017).
  - Projected to increase to 2.9 percent in 2019.
- Jordan:
  - Growth projected to increase from 2.3 percent in 2017 to 2.5 percent in 2018, and to 2.7 percent in 2019.
- Mauritania and Morocco:
  - Growth softens in 2018 to 2.7 percent (MRT) and 3.1 percent (MAR), down from 3.2 percent and 4.2 percent in 2017, respectively, due to drought.
  - Anticipated rebound in 2019 to 4.5 percent (MRT) and 4 percent (MAR).
- Lebanon:
  - Growth projected to tick up to 1.5 percent in 2018 (from 1.2 percent in 2017), then to 1.8 percent in 2019.
- Somalia and Afghanistan:
  - Growth remains fragile due to drought and ongoing security challenges.

### Growth and labor market constraints
- Average growth of 4.9 percent over 2018–22 is too low to effectively reduce unemployment, particularly for young people.
- Labor force expected to expand 2.2 percent a year over the next five years.
- MENAP oil importers need sustained growth of 6.2 percent annually just to maintain unemployment at its current level of 10 percent.
- Required policy response: accelerate structural reforms to allow the private sector to generate jobs, given limited public sector capacity to absorb new entrants.
- Political risks to reform include upcoming elections (Lebanon, Mauritania, Pakistan, Tunisia) and a more challenging political environment.
- Governance and transparency steps noted:
  - Sudan appointed external auditors to review public policies.
  - Afghanistan enacted legislation to criminalize acts of corruption.
  - Anti-corruption laws being operationalized in Morocco, Tunisia, and Somalia.
  - Pakistan strengthened its bankruptcy framework.

### External and fiscal positions: improving, but vulnerabilities remain
- Exports grew by 6.4 percent in 2017; projected to accelerate by 8.4 percent in 2018 and 8.6 percent in 2019.
- Import growth projected to slow to 4.8 percent in 2018 (from 6.8 percent in 2017) and remain around 5.5 percent over the medium term.
- Current account deficit projected to narrow from 6.5 percent of GDP in 2017 to 6.2 percent in 2018 and to 5.7 percent in 2019.
- Factors supporting external positions: improved external demand, exchange rate flexibility (Egypt, Pakistan, Tunisia), gains in competitiveness (Morocco, Tunisia), and commodity price pick-ups (phosphates, metals, cotton).
- Capital inflows increased in some countries (Egypt, Morocco), including international bond issues (Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia) and grants (Afghanistan, Somalia), bolstering reserves.
- Fiscal position:
  - Regional fiscal deficit improving from 6.8 percent of GDP in 2016 to 6.5 percent in 2017 and 5.9 percent in 2018.
  - Additional fiscal adjustment expected through VAT unification/raising (Egypt), elimination/reduction of exemptions (Jordan, Morocco), addressing loopholes, strengthening administration, and reforming income and corporate tax systems (Jordan, Morocco).
  - IMF-supported programs: Egypt expected to achieve more than 2 percentage points of GDP in further adjustment; Tunisia expected to achieve 0.7 percentage points of GDP in further adjustment while maintaining a floor on social spending.
- Public debt remains elevated, exceeding 80 percent of GDP in several countries (Egypt, Lebanon, Sudan).
- Interest payments are, on average, between 5 and 10 percent of GDP for Egypt and Lebanon.
- Rising global financing costs and high deficits/large short-term refinancing needs (Egypt, Lebanon, Pakistan) increase vulnerability to higher debt-service burdens.

### Inflation and financial sector resilience
- Inflation broadly stable at about 12 percent, reflecting receding one-off factors in Egypt and Sudan, monetary tightening (Jordan, Tunisia), and declines in food prices (Morocco, Pakistan).
- Banking sectors: legacy of high but declining nonperforming loans; generally stable, liquid, and adequately capitalized.
- Private credit growth remains relatively buoyant.
- Adoption of fintech increasing financial inclusion in several countries (Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Pakistan).
- Policy needs to enhance resilience:
  - Strengthen regulatory and supervisory frameworks (Djibouti, Mauritania).
  - Improve insolvency and bankruptcy regimes (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia).
  - In some cases, enhance deposit insurance arrangements (Egypt, Pakistan).
  - Reinforce anti–money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism frameworks (Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan).

### Risks (tilted to the downside)
- Geopolitical and domestic risks:
  - Further deterioration of regional conflicts or security conditions, intensification of domestic social tensions, or reform fatigue could derail policy implementation and weaken economic activity.
- Oil price risk:
  - Baseline outlook anticipates oil prices rising to above $60 a barrel in 2018–19, a 20 percent increase over 2017.
  - A $10 increase in oil prices relative to the baseline would worsen the current account balance by 1 percentage point of GDP across MENAP oil importers.
- Global financial conditions:
  - Tighter and more volatile global financial conditions could increase borrowing costs and add to fiscal sustainability concerns and banking sector stress.
  - A 200 basis point increase in interest rates relative to the baseline would raise financing costs for 2018 by 0.9 percentage point of GDP for Lebanon, 0.8 percentage point of GDP for Egypt, and 0.7 percentage point of GDP for Pakistan.
  - Tightening could also precipitate capital outflows, pressuring external positions and exchange rates.
- Trade policy risk:
  - Escalating import tariffs or a shift toward inward-looking policies could reduce global trade or affect commodity prices, removing support from external demand.
- Upside potential:
  - There remains potential for upside in countries benefiting from stronger-than-expected activity in key trading partners.

### MENAP Region: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000–19
- Years shown: Average 2000–14, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 (Projections)

- MENAP (aggregate)
  - Real GDP (annual growth): 4.8, 2.5, 4.9, 2.6, 3.4, 3.7
  - of which non-oil growth: 5.9, 1.6, 1.9, 3.2, 3.6, 3.9
  - Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): 8.8, -4.0, -4.2, -0.9, 0.5, -0.3
  - Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): 3.5, -8.6, -9.4, -5.6, -4.4, -3.5
  - Inflation (year average; percent): 7.1, 5.6, 4.7, 6.3, 8.2, 6.8

- MENAP oil exporters
  - Real GDP (annual growth): 5.0, 1.9, 5.4, 1.7, 2.8, 3.3
  - of which non-oil growth: 6.6, 0.3, 0.8, 2.6, 3.2, 3.4
  - Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): 12.6, -3.8, -3.6, 1.2, 3.0, 1.8
  - Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): 6.7, -9.2, -10.6, -5.2, -3.8, -2.8
  - Inflation (year average; percent): 7.1, 5.1, 4.0, 3.4, 6.3, 5.5

- MENAP oil exporters, excluding conflict countries
  - Real GDP (annual growth): 4.3, 2.2, 5.2, 1.3, 2.6, 3.0
  - of which non-oil growth: 6.2, 1.9, 2.1, 2.5, 3.1, 3.2
  - Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): 13.1, -3.1, -2.9, 1.3, 3.6, 2.5
  - Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): 7.2, -7.8, -9.2, -4.9, -3.5, -2.3
  - Inflation (year average; percent): 6.9, 4.9, 4.5, 3.6, 6.5, 5.7

- Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
  - Real GDP (annual growth): 4.9, 3.6, 2.1, -0.2, 1.9, 2.6
  - of which non-oil growth: 6.9, 3.5, 1.6, 1.8, 2.7, 2.7
  - Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): 16.5, -2.4, -3.4, 2.1, 4.3, 3.1
  - Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): 9.7, -8.4, -10.8, -5.5, -3.4, -1.9
  - Inflation (year average; percent): 2.8, 2.0, 2.1, 0.2, 3.6, 2.5

- MENAP oil importers
  - Real GDP (annual growth): 4.3, 3.8, 3.7, 4.2, 4.7, 4.6
  - Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): -2.2, -4.4, -5.7, -6.5, -6.2, -5.7
  - Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): -5.6, -7.2, -6.8, -6.5, -5.9, -5.2
  - Inflation (year average; percent): 7.6, 6.8, 6.2, 12.4, 12.2, 9.5

- MENA (aggregate)
  - Real GDP (annual growth): 4.8, 2.4, 4.9, 2.2, 3.2, 3.6
  - of which non-oil growth: 6.1, 1.3, 1.5, 2.9, 3.3, 3.8
  - Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): 9.5, -4.4, -4.6, -0.6, 1.1, 0.2
  - Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): 4.2, -8.9, -10.0, -5.6, -4.3, -3.3
  - Inflation (year average; percent): 7.0, 5.8, 4.9, 6.6, 8.7, 7.1

- Arab World
  - Real GDP (annual growth): 5.1, 3.2, 3.1, 1.7, 3.0, 3.5
  - of which non-oil growth: 6.4, 2.3, 1.1, 2.6, 3.2, 3.7
  - Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): 10.6, -5.1, -6.1, -1.4, 0.2, -0.7
  - Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): 4.7, -10.1, -11.3, -6.2, -4.8, -3.3
  - Inflation (year average; percent): 4.7, 4.6, 4.0, 5.8, 7.9, 6.0

### Notes and country group definitions
- 2011–19 data exclude Syrian Arab Republic.
- Arab World: Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
- MENAP oil importers: Afghanistan, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and MENAP Region.
- Data refer to the fiscal year for the following countries: Afghanistan (March 21 to March 20) until 2011, and December 21 to December 20 thereafter, Iran (March 21 to March 20), and Egypt and Pakistan (July to June).
- MENAP oil exporters: Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
- GCC countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.
- MENAP oil exporters excl. conflict countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.

*International Monetary Fund — Middle East and Central Asia Department, REO Update, May 2018*

### Section 1

### MENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Risks to the Recovery Persist

### Growth recovery remains fragile
- Regional growth is estimated at 4.2 percent in 2017.
- Projected growth is 4.7 percent in 2018 and 5 percent on average during 2019–23.
- Strengthening euro area outlook will support exports, remittances, foreign direct investment, and tourism.
- Downside growth pressures include:
  - Persistent conflicts and regional spillovers.
  - Security concerns.
  - Weaker-than-anticipated public investment (Afghanistan, Jordan).
  - Delays in implementation or completion of structural reforms (Jordan, Morocco, Pakistan, Tunisia).
  - Political and policy uncertainty (Lebanon, Pakistan).
- The outlook has softened slightly since the October 2017 Regional Economic Outlook.

### Country-level outlook highlights
- Egypt:
  - Growth projected to rise to 5.2 percent in FY2018 (from 4.2 percent in FY2017).
  - Growth projected to accelerate to 5.5 percent in FY2019, aided by an increase in gas production.
- Pakistan:
  - Estimated growth of 5.6 percent in FY2018 (from 5.3 percent in FY2017).
  - Projected to moderate to 4.7 percent in FY2019 due to macroeconomic vulnerabilities and domestic policy slippages.
- Sudan:
  - Growth expected to advance to 3.7 percent in 2018 (from 3.2 percent in 2017).
  - Projected to slow to 3.5 percent in 2019.
- Tunisia:
  - Growth expected to lift to 2.4 percent in 2018 (from 1.9 percent in 2017).
  - Projected to increase to 2.9 percent in 2019.
- Jordan:
  - Growth projected to increase from 2.3 percent in 2017 to 2.5 percent in 2018, and to 2.7 percent in 2019.
- Mauritania and Morocco:
  - Growth softens in 2018 to 2.7 percent (MRT) and 3.1 percent (MAR), down from 3.2 percent and 4.2 percent in 2017, respectively, due to drought.
  - Anticipated rebound in 2019 to 4.5 percent (MRT) and 4 percent (MAR).
- Lebanon:
  - Growth projected to tick up to 1.5 percent in 2018 (from 1.2 percent in 2017), then to 1.8 percent in 2019.
- Somalia and Afghanistan:
  - Growth remains fragile due to drought and ongoing security challenges.

### Growth and labor market constraints
- Average growth of 4.9 percent over 2018–22 is too low to effectively reduce unemployment, particularly for young people.
- Labor force expected to expand 2.2 percent a year over the next five years.
- MENAP oil importers need sustained growth of 6.2 percent annually just to maintain unemployment at its current level of 10 percent.
- Required policy response: accelerate structural reforms to allow the private sector to generate jobs, given limited public sector capacity to absorb new entrants.
- Political risks to reform include upcoming elections (Lebanon, Mauritania, Pakistan, Tunisia) and a more challenging political environment.
- Governance and transparency steps noted:
  - Sudan appointed external auditors to review public policies.
  - Afghanistan enacted legislation to criminalize acts of corruption.
  - Anti-corruption laws being operationalized in Morocco, Tunisia, and Somalia.
  - Pakistan strengthened its bankruptcy framework.

### External and fiscal positions: improving, but vulnerabilities remain
- Exports grew by 6.4 percent in 2017; projected to accelerate by 8.4 percent in 2018 and 8.6 percent in 2019.
- Import growth projected to slow to 4.8 percent in 2018 (from 6.8 percent in 2017) and remain around 5.5 percent over the medium term.
- Current account deficit projected to narrow from 6.5 percent of GDP in 2017 to 6.2 percent in 2018 and to 5.7 percent in 2019.
- Factors supporting external positions: improved external demand, exchange rate flexibility (Egypt, Pakistan, Tunisia), gains in competitiveness (Morocco, Tunisia), and commodity price pick-ups (phosphates, metals, cotton).
- Capital inflows increased in some countries (Egypt, Morocco), including international bond issues (Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia) and grants (Afghanistan, Somalia), bolstering reserves.
- Fiscal position:
  - Regional fiscal deficit improving from 6.8 percent of GDP in 2016 to 6.5 percent in 2017 and 5.9 percent in 2018.
  - Additional fiscal adjustment expected through VAT unification/raising (Egypt), elimination/reduction of exemptions (Jordan, Morocco), addressing loopholes, strengthening administration, and reforming income and corporate tax systems (Jordan, Morocco).
  - IMF-supported programs: Egypt expected to achieve more than 2 percentage points of GDP in further adjustment; Tunisia expected to achieve 0.7 percentage points of GDP in further adjustment while maintaining a floor on social spending.
- Public debt remains elevated, exceeding 80 percent of GDP in several countries (Egypt, Lebanon, Sudan).
- Interest payments are, on average, between 5 and 10 percent of GDP for Egypt and Lebanon.
- Rising global financing costs and high deficits/large short-term refinancing needs (Egypt, Lebanon, Pakistan) increase vulnerability to higher debt-service burdens.

### Inflation and financial sector resilience
- Inflation broadly stable at about 12 percent, reflecting receding one-off factors in Egypt and Sudan, monetary tightening (Jordan, Tunisia), and declines in food prices (Morocco, Pakistan).
- Banking sectors: legacy of high but declining nonperforming loans; generally stable, liquid, and adequately capitalized.
- Private credit growth remains relatively buoyant.
- Adoption of fintech increasing financial inclusion in several countries (Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Pakistan).
- Policy needs to enhance resilience:
  - Strengthen regulatory and supervisory frameworks (Djibouti, Mauritania).
  - Improve insolvency and bankruptcy regimes (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia).
  - In some cases, enhance deposit insurance arrangements (Egypt, Pakistan).
  - Reinforce anti–money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism frameworks (Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan).

### Risks (tilted to the downside)
- Geopolitical and domestic risks:
  - Further deterioration of regional conflicts or security conditions, intensification of domestic social tensions, or reform fatigue could derail policy implementation and weaken economic activity.
- Oil price risk:
  - Baseline outlook anticipates oil prices rising to above $60 a barrel in 2018–19, a 20 percent increase over 2017.
  - A $10 increase in oil prices relative to the baseline would worsen the current account balance by 1 percentage point of GDP across MENAP oil importers.
- Global financial conditions:
  - Tighter and more volatile global financial conditions could increase borrowing costs and add to fiscal sustainability concerns and banking sector stress.
  - A 200 basis point increase in interest rates relative to the baseline would raise financing costs for 2018 by 0.9 percentage point of GDP for Lebanon, 0.8 percentage point of GDP for Egypt, and 0.7 percentage point of GDP for Pakistan.
  - Tightening could also precipitate capital outflows, pressuring external positions and exchange rates.
- Trade policy risk:
  - Escalating import tariffs or a shift toward inward-looking policies could reduce global trade or affect commodity prices, removing support from external demand.
- Upside potential:
  - There remains potential for upside in countries benefiting from stronger-than-expected activity in key trading partners.

*International Monetary Fund — Middle East and Central Asia Department, REO Update, May 2018*

### Section 2

### MENAP Region: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000–19

### Overview
- Years shown: Average 2000–14, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 (Projections)

### MENAP (aggregate)
- Real GDP (annual growth): 4.8, 2.5, 4.9, 2.6, 3.4, 3.7
- of which non-oil growth: 5.9, 1.6, 1.9, 3.2, 3.6, 3.9
- Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): 8.8, -4.0, -4.2, -0.9, 0.5, -0.3
- Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): 3.5, -8.6, -9.4, -5.6, -4.4, -3.5
- Inflation (year average; percent): 7.1, 5.6, 4.7, 6.3, 8.2, 6.8

### MENAP oil exporters
- Real GDP (annual growth): 5.0, 1.9, 5.4, 1.7, 2.8, 3.3
- of which non-oil growth: 6.6, 0.3, 0.8, 2.6, 3.2, 3.4
- Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): 12.6, -3.8, -3.6, 1.2, 3.0, 1.8
- Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): 6.7, -9.2, -10.6, -5.2, -3.8, -2.8
- Inflation (year average; percent): 7.1, 5.1, 4.0, 3.4, 6.3, 5.5

### MENAP oil exporters, excluding conflict countries
- Real GDP (annual growth): 4.3, 2.2, 5.2, 1.3, 2.6, 3.0
- of which non-oil growth: 6.2, 1.9, 2.1, 2.5, 3.1, 3.2
- Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): 13.1, -3.1, -2.9, 1.3, 3.6, 2.5
- Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): 7.2, -7.8, -9.2, -4.9, -3.5, -2.3
- Inflation (year average; percent): 6.9, 4.9, 4.5, 3.6, 6.5, 5.7

### Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
- Real GDP (annual growth): 4.9, 3.6, 2.1, -0.2, 1.9, 2.6
- of which non-oil growth: 6.9, 3.5, 1.6, 1.8, 2.7, 2.7
- Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): 16.5, -2.4, -3.4, 2.1, 4.3, 3.1
- Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): 9.7, -8.4, -10.8, -5.5, -3.4, -1.9
- Inflation (year average; percent): 2.8, 2.0, 2.1, 0.2, 3.6, 2.5

### MENAP oil importers
- Real GDP (annual growth): 4.3, 3.8, 3.7, 4.2, 4.7, 4.6
- Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): -2.2, -4.4, -5.7, -6.5, -6.2, -5.7
- Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): -5.6, -7.2, -6.8, -6.5, -5.9, -5.2
- Inflation (year average; percent): 7.6, 6.8, 6.2, 12.4, 12.2, 9.5

### MENA (aggregate)
- Real GDP (annual growth): 4.8, 2.4, 4.9, 2.2, 3.2, 3.6
- of which non-oil growth: 6.1, 1.3, 1.5, 2.9, 3.3, 3.8
- Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): 9.5, -4.4, -4.6, -0.6, 1.1, 0.2
- Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): 4.2, -8.9, -10.0, -5.6, -4.3, -3.3
- Inflation (year average; percent): 7.0, 5.8, 4.9, 6.6, 8.7, 7.1

### Arab World
- Real GDP (annual growth): 5.1, 3.2, 3.1, 1.7, 3.0, 3.5
- of which non-oil growth: 6.4, 2.3, 1.1, 2.6, 3.2, 3.7
- Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP): 10.6, -5.1, -6.1, -1.4, 0.2, -0.7
- Overall Fiscal Balance (Percent of GDP): 4.7, -10.1, -11.3, -6.2, -4.8, -3.3
- Inflation (year average; percent): 4.7, 4.6, 4.0, 5.8, 7.9, 6.0

### Notes and country group definitions
- 2011–19 data exclude Syrian Arab Republic.
- Arab World: Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
- MENAP oil importers: Afghanistan, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and MENAP Region.
- Data refer to the fiscal year for the following countries: Afghanistan (March 21 to March 20) until 2011, and December 21 to December 20 thereafter, Iran (March 21 to March 20), and Egypt and Pakistan (July to June).
- MENAP oil exporters: Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
- GCC countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.
- MENAP oil exporters excl. conflict countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.

*Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations and projections.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/may/english/menap0518-oi.pdf_