## Climate Vulnerabilities and Food Insecurity in Mali (SIP/2023/054) — Sections 1–2

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### I. Current challenges: climate exposure, agricultural reliance, and food insecurity
- Climate trends and exposure
  - Average temperatures in Mali have risen over recent decades (World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal).
  - Mali has suffered from more frequent climate-related natural disasters including droughts and floods (CRED).
  - A summary measure shows Mali faces one of the highest levels of climate-related risk among WAEMU countries (UNDP INFORM risk indicator).

- Reliance on agriculture and vulnerability
  - Food and cotton production constitute around a third of GDP in Mali.
  - Almost 80 percent of livelihoods depend on agrarian and pastoralist activities affected by rainfall variability.
  - Climate change is estimated to reduce agricultural productivity by over 40 percent in Mali (Ortiz-Bobea and others, 2021).

- Impacts on agricultural output and food security
  - Cross-country research indicates a temperature increase is associated with a 3 percentage point reduction in agricultural output (Dell, Jones, and Oklen, 2012).
  - Analysis shows food insecurity increases by 5–20 percentage points with each flood or drought (IMF, 2020).
  - The share of the population that is undernourished rose from just over 3 percent in 2017 to almost 10 percent in 2020 (FAO, 2022).

- Recent shocks and food price developments
  - Mali faced COVID-19-related supply bottlenecks, sanctions restricting food imports, and the war in Ukraine, affecting global food supplies.
  - Food prices in late 2022 were around 30 percent above their 2019 average.
  - Food items account for just under 60 percent of consumer spending in Mali (INSTAT; WFP).
  - About three quarters of the population have insufficient food consumption (WFP, Dec 2022–Mar 2023).

- Acute food insecurity figures and projections
  - Early 2023: more than 15 percent of the population were either facing severe food insecurity (761,000 people) or at risk of doing so (2.9 million).
  - By mid-2023: projected to rise to 24 percent, with 1.3 million people facing severe food insecurity and a further 4 million at risk (FSC, March 2023).

- Balance of payments and import pressures
  - The price of imported cereals increased by 5½ percent in 2022, contributing to an 8 percent rise in total cereal imports.
  - The value of Mali’s total food imports increased by 15 percent in 2022 and were 65 percent higher than in 2019 (INSTAT).

- Additional risk factors
  - Fragile and Conflict Affected State dynamics: widespread local conflicts and insecurity hamper humanitarian access, increasing displacement and vulnerability (WFP, 2022).
  - Political instability, weak institutions, declining international aid flows, and rapid population growth constrain resilience and fiscal space.

### II. Reform priorities: adaptation, protection, financing, and cooperation
- Adaptation in the primary sector
  - Improve infrastructure for irrigation and provide reliable access to water and electricity to limit the impact of climate-related natural disasters on agricultural production (Selassie, 2021).
  - Invest in seeds, pesticides, and fertilizers suited to higher average temperatures or resilient to extreme weather.
  - Encourage crop switching where appropriate and support climate-smart agriculture with information technology infrastructure and knowledge sharing (CIAT and others, 2020).

- Distributional monitoring and targeted support
  - Monitor distributional effects; support households and businesses most affected, noting the poor and vulnerable have limited buffers and adaptation capacity.
  - Address gendered vulnerabilities: women and girls face restricted social mobility, limited access to resources, and constrained participation in decision-making.

- Social protection and risk-spreading instruments
  - Use targeted cash transfers and safeguards to help households meet nutritional needs while limiting fiscal impact.
  - Employ insurance mechanisms and government-supported transfers or subsidies in response to climate-related natural disasters.
  - Design social protection programs to automatically trigger cash transfer payments as soon as weather shocks materialize.
  - Utilize the Unified Social Register (RSU) national database for targeting, ensuring it is regularly updated and supported by reliable payment mechanisms.

- Fiscal space and financing adaptation
  - Create sufficient fiscal space to cover the cost of building resilience; infrastructure-focused adaptation is more cost effective than ex post disaster relief (IMF, 2020).
  - Potential funding methods when conditions allow:
    - Concessional financing, particularly through climate funds.
    - Debt instruments linked to climate change.
    - International carbon credit schemes.
    - Climate-related insurance schemes (Belianska and others, 2022; IMF, 2023).
  - Accreditation of Mali’s climate agency is an important step to access international funds; reduce administrative charges and language barriers where possible.

- Regional and international cooperation
  - Cross-country insurance programs can pool risks and spread costs of extreme weather events among a larger group, funded by bilateral and multilateral donors and financial markets.
  - Regional trade should be preserved as an insurance mechanism to balance excess harvests and shortfalls; avoid protectionist policies or trade embargoes.
  - Strengthening international relationships could increase donor support and concessional lending tied to climate change and food insecurity.

### III. Major themes reflected in the evidence base
- Climate-smart agriculture and country-specific analysis for Mali.
- Links between climate change, development, and conflict-fragility in the Sahel.
- Intersection of climate action, fragility, and peacebuilding.
- Evidence that anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth.
- Food security monitoring and early warning for Mali.
- Water risk assessment and regional perspectives on African development and climate security in fragile contexts.

### IV. Conclusion: urgency and policy imperatives
- Urgency and stakes
  - Climate change is already contributing to rising food insecurity in Mali; further increases risk exacerbating social tensions and conflict.
  - Food insecurity has lasting adverse impacts on economic growth, poverty, child development, and human capital formation given Mali’s median age of 15.

- Policy imperatives
  - Immediate action is required to build resilience, protect vulnerable households, and mobilize climate-focused financing.
  - Mali stands to benefit disproportionately from strengthened international cooperation, including climate-related funding schemes and cross-country insurance programs.

*Prepared by Luc Tucker; IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2023/054), completed May 9, 2023. Section completed March 31, 2023.*

### Section 1

### Climate Vulnerabilities and Food Insecurity in Mali (SIP/2023/054) — Section 1

### I. Current Challenges
- Climate trends and exposure
  - Average temperatures in Mali have risen over recent decades (World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal).
  - Mali has suffered from more frequent climate-related natural disasters including droughts and floods (CRED).
  - A summary measure shows Mali faces one of the highest levels of climate-related risk among WAEMU countries (UNDP INFORM risk indicator).

- Reliance on agriculture and vulnerability
  - Food and cotton production constitute around a third of GDP in Mali.
  - Almost 80 percent of livelihoods depend on agrarian and pastoralist activities affected by rainfall variability.
  - Climate change is estimated to reduce agricultural productivity by over 40 percent in Mali (Ortiz-Bobea and others, 2021).

- Impacts on agricultural output and food security
  - Cross-country research indicates a temperature increase is associated with a 3 percentage point reduction in agricultural output (Dell, Jones, and Oklen, 2012).
  - Analysis shows food insecurity increases by 5–20 percentage points with each flood or drought (IMF, 2020).
  - The share of the population that is undernourished rose from just over 3 percent in 2017 to almost 10 percent in 2020 (FAO, 2022).

- Recent shocks and food price developments
  - Mali faced COVID-19-related supply bottlenecks, sanctions restricting food imports, and the war in Ukraine, affecting global food supplies.
  - Food prices in late 2022 were around 30 percent above their 2019 average.
  - Food items account for just under 60 percent of consumer spending in Mali (INSTAT; WFP).
  - About three quarters of the population have insufficient food consumption (WFP, Dec 2022–Mar 2023).

- Acute food insecurity figures and projections
  - Early 2023: more than 15 percent of the population were either facing severe food insecurity (761,000 people) or at risk of doing so (2.9 million).
  - By mid-2023: projected to rise to 24 percent, with 1.3 million people facing severe food insecurity and a further 4 million at risk (FSC, March 2023).

- Balance of payments and import pressures
  - The price of imported cereals increased by 5½ percent in 2022, contributing to an 8 percent rise in total cereal imports.
  - The value of Mali’s total food imports increased by 15 percent in 2022 and were 65 percent higher than in 2019 (INSTAT).

- Additional risk factors
  - Fragile and Conflict Affected State dynamics: widespread local conflicts and insecurity hamper humanitarian access, increasing displacement and vulnerability (WFP, 2022).
  - Political instability, weak institutions, declining international aid flows, and rapid population growth constrain resilience and fiscal space.

### II. Reform Priorities
- Adaptation in the primary sector
  - Improve infrastructure for irrigation and provide reliable access to water and electricity to limit the impact of climate-related natural disasters on agricultural production (Selassie, 2021).
  - Invest in seeds, pesticides, and fertilizers suited to higher average temperatures or resilient to extreme weather.
  - Encourage crop switching where appropriate and support climate-smart agriculture with information technology infrastructure and knowledge sharing (CIAT and others, 2020).

- Distributional monitoring and targeted support
  - Monitor distributional effects; support households and businesses most affected, noting the poor and vulnerable have limited buffers and adaptation capacity.
  - Address gendered vulnerabilities: women and girls face restricted social mobility, limited access to resources, and constrained participation in decision-making.

- Social protection and risk-spreading instruments
  - Use targeted cash transfers and safeguards to help households meet nutritional needs while limiting fiscal impact.
  - Employ insurance mechanisms and government-supported transfers or subsidies in response to climate-related natural disasters.
  - Design social protection programs to automatically trigger cash transfer payments as soon as weather shocks materialize.
  - Utilize the Unified Social Register (RSU) national database for targeting, ensuring it is regularly updated and supported by reliable payment mechanisms.

- Fiscal space and financing adaptation
  - Create sufficient fiscal space to cover the cost of building resilience; infrastructure-focused adaptation is more cost effective than ex post disaster relief (IMF, 2020).
  - Potential funding methods when conditions allow:
    - Concessional financing, particularly through climate funds.
    - Debt instruments linked to climate change.
    - International carbon credit schemes.
    - Climate-related insurance schemes (Belianska and others, 2022; IMF, 2023).
  - Accreditation of Mali’s climate agency is an important step to access international funds; reduce administrative charges and language barriers where possible.

- Regional and international cooperation
  - Cross-country insurance programs can pool risks and spread costs of extreme weather events among a larger group, funded by bilateral and multilateral donors and financial markets.
  - Regional trade should be preserved as an insurance mechanism to balance excess harvests and shortfalls; avoid protectionist policies or trade embargoes.
  - Strengthening international relationships could increase donor support and concessional lending tied to climate change and food insecurity.

### III. Conclusion
- Urgency and stakes
  - Climate change is already contributing to rising food insecurity in Mali; further increases risk exacerbating social tensions and conflict.
  - Food insecurity has lasting adverse impacts on economic growth, poverty, child development, and human capital formation given Mali’s median age of 15.

- Policy imperatives
  - Immediate action is required to build resilience, protect vulnerable households, and mobilize climate-focused financing.
  - Mali stands to benefit disproportionately from strengthened international cooperation, including climate-related funding schemes and cross-country insurance programs.

*Prepared by Luc Tucker; IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2023/054), completed May 9, 2023. Section completed March 31, 2023.*

### Section 2

### sipea2023054 - Section 2

### Referenced works (by author/title and year)
- International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and others, “Climate-Smart Agriculture in Mali”, CSA Country Profiles for Africa Series, 2020.
- Mbaye, A. and Signé, L., “Climate change, development, and conflict-fragility nexus in the Sahel”, Brookings Institute Working Paper, March 2022.
- Navone, A., “The Intertwined Futures of Climate Action, Fragility and Peacebuilding”, United States Institute of Peace, April 2021.
- Ortiz-Bobea, A. and others, “Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth”, Nature Climate Change, April 2021.
- Reliefweb, “Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture Country Brief Mali”, October 2022.
- Selassie, A., “The African Century”, December 2021.
- Tesfaye, B., “Addressing Climate Security in Fragile Contexts”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, February 2022.
- World Resources Institute (WRI), “Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas”, 2019.
- World Food Program (WFP), “Global Report on Food Crises”, May 2022.
- World Food Program (WFP), “Mali Country Brief”, November 2022.
- World Food Program (WFP), “HungerMap: West Africa key insights and trends”, March 2023.

### Major themes and topical coverage reflected in sources
- Climate-smart agriculture and country-specific analysis for Mali.
- Links between climate change, development, and conflict-fragility in the Sahel.
- Intersection of climate action, fragility, and peacebuilding.
- Evidence that anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth.
- Food security monitoring and early warning for Mali.
- Regional and continental perspectives on African development (“The African Century”).
- Climate security considerations in fragile contexts.
- Water risk assessment via the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas.
- Global and country-level reporting on food crises and hunger trends in West Africa.

*Source: sipea2023054 - Section 2*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2023/english/sipea2023054.pdf_