## Fragility, Demographics, Gender Inequality

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### Historical Context and Current Challenges
- Mali is classified as a fragile and conflict-affected state (FCS) with both "structural fragility" and a political system "fragile to stress", producing persistently weak growth, widespread food insecurity, low state capacity to provide basic services, and lack of basic infrastructure.
- Population and demographic facts:
  - Fertility rate is estimated at six children per woman on average.
  - Population almost doubled from about 10 to 20 million between 2000 and 2020 and is expected to almost double again over the coming 20 years.
  - Informal sector accounts for more than 95 percent of total employment.
  - High population growth increases dependency ratios and pressures public finances and job markets.
- Gender inequality and social outcomes:
  - Mali is ranked 155th out of the 170 countries included in the 2021 UNDP Gender Inequality Index.
  - Maternal mortality is among the highest in the world.
  - Educational attainment (over 25 years old):
    - Around 8 percent of women over 25 have completed lower secondary education.
    - 15½ percent of men over 25 have completed lower secondary education.
  - Political and public representation:
    - Share of female parliamentary representatives is less than 29 percent (higher than the sub-Saharan Africa average of just under 28 percent).
  - Gender-based violence is widespread; women seeking justice often face social pressures and rights violations.
- Labor market gender gap:
  - The gap between male and female labor force participation rates in Mali is the second highest in the WAEMU.
  - Inequalities are particularly prevalent among skilled jobs.
- Interactions and feedback loops:
  - Gender inequality is linked to higher fertility; low education opportunities for women correlate with higher average number of children per female.
  - High fertility affects women's health, productive capacity, and time available for employment, reducing GDP per capita growth and increasing risk of social tensions.
  - Fragility and conflict exacerbate risks to women and girls (forced marriages, unpaid economic participation, sexual and gender-based violence).
- Fragility persistence:
  - Fund for Peace Fragile States Index shows Mali’s fragility ranking increased sharply in 2012 and has continued to increase steadily since.
  - In the latest index, Mali is ranked 14th out of almost 180 countries in terms of fragility.
- Policy implication from literature:
  - Research suggests supporting growth, increasing social/education spending, strengthening government effectiveness, and increasing political inclusion can be especially beneficial.

### Reforms Enacted to Date
- Security and fiscal trade-offs:
  - Security and military spending averaged around 5½ percent of GDP in 2021 and 2022, the highest in the Sahel G5.
  - In the previous decade security spending averaged just over 3 percent of GDP.
  - Higher security spending has come at the expense of other priority spending including public investment and social spending.
- Institutional and policy measures on gender and demographics:
  - 1997: Creation of the Ministry for the Promotion of Women, Children, and Families (MPFEF).
  - 2014: National Policy on Promotion and Protection of Children (PNPPE).
  - 2015: National Family Policy (PNF).
  - 2015: National Gender Policy with a requirement that the share of either gender in public agencies should not be lower than 30 percent.
  - 2017: Launch of Emergence of Women’s Capacities (PRECOFEM) by MPFEF as a forum for information exchange.
  - National Action Plan for 2019-2023 ensures women are given prominent roles in peacebuilding, reconciliation, and post-conflict governance and provides support to women's rights organizations.
- Democratic processes:
  - A credible, transparent, and inclusive election process is identified as a measure that would help different groups feel empowered and reduce the risk of future conflict.

### Future Priorities and Measures of Success
- Core priorities recommended:
  - Empowerment of women, with emphasis on:
    - Addressing gender gaps in education, especially among poorer households.
    - Establishing more secure property rights for women and facilitating access to land and credit.
  - Improvements to care infrastructure and social safety nets to support increased female labor force participation.
  - Prioritize reforms with the greatest macroeconomic impact, notably improved access to education for women and girls guided by the need for skills in expanding sectors.
  - Focus policies on rural areas where economic diversification is lowest and where fertility and gender inequality are highest.
  - Involve women’s rights organizations and gender experts in design and implementation of reforms.
- Role of donors and international partners:
  - International assistance could be further targeted towards improving gender equality and additional funding could be offered conditional on the successful implementation of reforms.
  - Improved diplomatic relations with international partners would increase likelihood of receiving support grants and funding to address fragility, demographic challenges, and gender inequality.
- Coordination and package design:
  - Given interrelated nature of fragility, demographics, and gender inequality, conduct reforms in coordination.
  - Well-designed packages (e.g., widening education opportunities combined with strengthening social safety nets) could reduce conflict and increase female labor force participation simultaneously.
- Measures of success (implicitly indicated by priorities):
  - Increased female educational attainment and labor force participation.
  - Expanded access to land, credit, and secure property rights for women.
  - Improved targeting and coverage of social protection systems.
  - Greater inclusion of women in peace processes and public decision-making.
  - Restoration or improvement of external financial support conditional on reform implementation.

### Conclusion
- Mali has been trapped in a state of fragility since 2012, with high population growth and gender inequality both contributing to that fragility.
- Reforms enacted to date include security responses and institutional measures to support women’s promotion and participation, but further efforts are needed.
- Coordinated reforms—empowering women, improving care infrastructure and social safety nets, and enhancing collaboration with international partners—are required to break the vicious cycle linking fragility, demographics, and gender inequality.

*Source: IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2023/055), July 2023.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2023/english/sipea2023055.pdf_