## 2. Impact of Higher Cost of Food

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---

### Background and context
- Analysis scope:
  - Assesses gender gaps in The Gambia and their implications for the economy, the impact of the high cost of living from a gender perspective, determinants of poverty, and macroeconomic and distributional gains from closing labor-market gender gaps.
- Key cross-country and conceptual points:
  - The Gambia scored 0.61 on the 2021 Gender Inequality Index (GII) versus a Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) average of 0.57.
  - Female labor force participation rate (LFPR) was 48.9 percent compared with 66.3 percent for men (2021 GII report).
  - Education and health: primary school completion for girls rose from 65 percent to 92 percent between 2010–2021; women account for less than 3 percent of enrolment in higher education.
  - Informality: 8 out of every 10 working women are in the informal sector or informal employment (2022 LFS).
  - Financial access and leadership: only 2 percent of women have bank accounts compared to 8 percent of men (FinScope 2019); share of women in parliament is 8.6 percent versus SSA average of 25.7 percent; women hold 36.1 percent of managerial positions (2022 LFS).

### Impact of the high cost of living (food inflation) — empirical findings
- Methodology:
  - Analysis deflates consumption separately for food and non-food categories and compares to deflation by overall inflation.
  - Household per-capita consumption used; individual consumption unavailable.
- Change in per-capita consumption by income quintile (in percent):
  - Quintile-1: -1.37
  - Quintile-2: -1.06
  - Quintile-3: -0.60
  - Quintile-4: -0.16
  - Quintile-5: 0.85
- Gender differences:
  - Gender differences in the first four quintiles are small (between 0.01 and 0.12 ppt).
  - In the fifth quintile women recorded a higher increase in consumption of about 0.29 percentage point.
- Inequality impacts:
  - Gini coefficient changes: overall deterioration by 1.3 percent; deterioration by gender: women 1.4 percent, men 1.1 percent.
- Subgroups most adversely affected by rapid food inflation:
  - Women in rural areas
  - Women living in poor remote municipalities
  - Women married in polygamous relations
- Additional contextual impact:
  - Number of food-insecure households increased more than three folds between 2019 and 2023.

### Determinants of poverty and consumption (selected empirical estimates)
- Key regression coefficients (dependent variables: Absolute poverty, Extreme poverty, Food poverty, Consumption):
  - Gender: Female — Absolute: -0.113***; Extreme: -0.091***; Food: -0.069***; Consumption: 0.030***
  - Area: Rural — Absolute: 0.723***; Extreme: 0.717***; Food: 0.207***; Consumption: -0.377***
  - Female X Rural — Absolute: 0.133***; Extreme: 0.072***; Food: 0.065***; Consumption: -0.013***
  - Marital status (2 - Married) — Absolute: -0.046***; Extreme: -0.111***; Food: -0.061***; Consumption: 0.006***
  - Marital status (3 - Separated) — Absolute: -0.274***; Extreme: -0.164***; Food: -0.291***; Consumption: 0.187***
  - Labor force (2 - Unemployed) — Absolute: 0.045***; Extreme: -0.076***; Food: -0.016*; Consumption: 0.008**
  - Labor force (3 - Outside Labor Force) — Absolute: 0.103***; Extreme: 0.070***; Food: 0.091***; Consumption: -0.082***
  - Education — Absolute: -0.033***; Extreme: -0.012***; Food: -0.027***; Consumption: 0.022***
  - Household Head: Female — Absolute: -0.266***; Extreme: -0.356***; Food: -0.124***; Consumption: 0.148***
  - Household size — Absolute: 0.068***; Extreme: 0.047***; Food: 0.088***; Consumption: -0.032***
  - No access to Finance — Absolute: 0.801***; Extreme: 0.875***; Food: 0.464***; Consumption: -0.357***
  - Has experienced a climate shock — Absolute: 0.004; Extreme: -0.061***; Food: 0.113***; Consumption: -0.038***
- Interpretive findings:
  - Living in rural areas is strongly associated with higher absolute, extreme, and food poverty and lower consumption.
  - Female-headed households are associated with lower poverty measures and higher consumption.
  - Access to finance and absence of climate shocks are significant determinants of lower poverty and higher consumption.

### Macroeconomic and distributional gains from closing gender gaps — simulation results
- Modeling approach:
  - General equilibrium model calibrated to The Gambia using 2018 and 2022 LFS and 2020–2021 Integrated Household Survey; model matches formal/informal labor statistics, education by gender and quantile, government revenues/expenditures (percent of GDP), and tax rates.
- Simulation A — Equalizing female and male labor force participation (by eliminating extra household utility cost when woman works):
  - Change in female labor force participation: 20.7 (ppts)
  - GDP gains after one generation: 11.2 (percent)
  - Government revenues grow: 10 (percent)
  - Gini (points difference): -4.1 (reduces to 34.7)
  - Note: This simulation does not change gender salary gaps or returns to education/experience.
- Simulation B — Equalizing returns from experience (male and female earnings per extra year of experience equalized):
  - Change in female labor force participation: 7.0 (ppts)
  - GDP gains after one generation: 10.5 (percent)
  - Government revenues grow: 8.5 (percent)
  - Women’s average earnings increase by 11 (percent)
  - Distributional note: Benefits concentrate more in the top 50 percent of the income distribution due to better-educated women being hired first.
- Comparative summary (figure values preserved):
  - Closing FLFP gap: Change in female labor force participation 20.7; GDP Gains 11.2; government revenues grow 10; Gini -4.1.
  - Equal return from experience: Change in female labor force participation 7.0; GDP Gains 10.5; government revenues grow 8.5; Gini -0.1.

### Policy recommendations
- Legal and institutional reforms:
  - Accelerate harmonization and standardization of existing laws and circumscribe claw-back clauses affecting women’s economic empowerment in the new constitution.
  - Revise discretionary laws in family, inheritance, and property rights.
  - Ensure effective implementation and strengthen enforcement of laws and government policies through sensitization campaigns targeting religious and community leaders and civil society; train judges, law enforcement officers, and Cadis court officers.
- Public finance and programs:
  - Leverage the gender budgeting pilot to provide adequate funding to sectors supporting women’s health, childcare, and participation in secondary and tertiary education (including TVET).
  - Expand the Women Enterprise Fund (WEF) as an alternative funding framework for women entrepreneurs and support transition from informal to formal sector, including support to small scale farmers and use of digitalization for business structuring.
  - Implement the National Financial Inclusion plan focused on youth and women to increase women’s access to the formal financial sector.
- Political and social inclusion:
  - Provide opportunities for more women in decision-making, especially in regions and rural areas where vulnerability and discriminatory practices are higher.
- Social protection, food systems, and land:
  - Expand social safety nets using a reliable and dynamic social registry; invest in food systems to reduce food-price vulnerabilities; implement the green-recovery–focused National Development Plan to build resilience.
  - Invest in resilient agricultural production to reduce food prices and support rural women; contemplate land reform given land’s importance as a factor of production.

*Source: THE GAMBIA: MACROECONOMIC AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF GENDER GAPS (Selected Issues paper), December 18, 2023.*

### 2. Impact of Higher Cost of Food ___________________________________________________ 5

### 2. Impact of Higher Cost of Food

### Background and context
- The analysis assesses gender gaps in The Gambia and their implications for the economy, the impact of the high cost of living from a gender perspective, determinants of poverty, and macroeconomic and distributional gains from closing labor-market gender gaps.
- Key cross-country and conceptual points cited:
  - The Gambia scored 0.61 on the 2021 Gender Inequality Index (GII) versus a Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) average of 0.57.
  - Female labor force participation rate (LFPR) was 48.9 percent compared with 66.3 percent for men (2021 GII report).
  - Education and health: primary school completion for girls rose from 65 percent to 92 percent between 2010–2021; women account for less than 3 percent of enrolment in higher education.
  - Informality: 8 out of every 10 working women are in the informal sector or informal employment (2022 LFS).
  - Financial access and leadership: only 2 percent of women have bank accounts compared to 8 percent of men (FinScope 2019); share of women in parliament is 8.6 percent versus SSA average of 25.7 percent; women hold 36.1 percent of managerial positions (2022 LFS).

### Impact of the high cost of living (food inflation) — empirical findings
- Methodology note:
  - Analysis deflates consumption separately for food and non-food categories and compares to deflation by overall inflation. Household per-capita consumption is used; individual consumption unavailable.
- Consumption impacts by income quintile (change in per-capita consumption, in percent):
  - Quintile-1: -1.37
  - Quintile-2: -1.06
  - Quintile-3: -0.60
  - Quintile-4: -0.16
  - Quintile-5: 0.85
- Gender differences in the first four quintiles are small (between 0.01 and 0.12 ppt); in the fifth quintile women recorded a higher increase in consumption of about 0.29 percentage point.
- Gini coefficient changes: overall deterioration by 1.3 percent; deterioration by gender: women 1.4 percent, men 1.1 percent.
- Subgroups most adversely affected by rapid food inflation:
  - Women in rural areas
  - Women living in poor remote municipalities
  - Women married in polygamous relations
- Additional contextual impacts:
  - Number of food-insecure households increased more than three folds between 2019 and 2023.

### Determinants of poverty and consumption (selected empirical estimates from Table 2)
- Key regression coefficients (dependent variables: Absolute poverty, Extreme poverty, Food poverty, Consumption):
  - Gender: Female — Absolute: -0.113***; Extreme: -0.091***; Food: -0.069***; Consumption: 0.030*** (standard errors in parentheses in source).
  - Area: Rural — Absolute: 0.723***; Extreme: 0.717***; Food: 0.207***; Consumption: -0.377***.
  - Female X Rural — Absolute: 0.133***; Extreme: 0.072***; Food: 0.065***; Consumption: -0.013***.
  - Marital status (2 - Married) — Absolute: -0.046***; Extreme: -0.111***; Food: -0.061***; Consumption: 0.006***.
  - Marital status (3 - Separated) — Absolute: -0.274***; Extreme: -0.164***; Food: -0.291***; Consumption: 0.187***.
  - Labor force (2 - Unemployed) — Absolute: 0.045***; Extreme: -0.076***; Food: -0.016*; Consumption: 0.008**.
  - Labor force (3 - Outside Labor Force) — Absolute: 0.103***; Extreme: 0.070***; Food: 0.091***; Consumption: -0.082***.
  - Education — Absolute: -0.033***; Extreme: -0.012***; Food: -0.027***; Consumption: 0.022***.
  - Household Head: Female — Absolute: -0.266***; Extreme: -0.356***; Food: -0.124***; Consumption: 0.148***.
  - Household size — Absolute: 0.068***; Extreme: 0.047***; Food: 0.088***; Consumption: -0.032***.
  - No access to Finance — Absolute: 0.801***; Extreme: 0.875***; Food: 0.464***; Consumption: -0.357***.
  - Has experienced a climate shock — Absolute: 0.004; Extreme: -0.061***; Food: 0.113***; Consumption: -0.038***.
- Interpretive findings:
  - Living in rural areas is strongly associated with higher absolute, extreme, and food poverty and lower consumption.
  - Female-headed households are associated with lower poverty measures and higher consumption.
  - Access to finance and absence of climate shocks are significant determinants of lower poverty and higher consumption.

### Macroeconomic and distributional gains from closing gender gaps — simulation results
- Modeling approach:
  - A general equilibrium model calibrated to The Gambia using 2018 and 2022 LFS and 2020–2021 Integrated Household Survey; model matches formal/informal labor statistics, education by gender and quantile, government revenues/expenditures (percent of GDP), and tax rates.
- Simulation A — Equalizing female and male labor force participation (by eliminating extra household utility cost when woman works):
  - Change in female labor force participation: 20.7 (ppts)
  - GDP gains after one generation: 11.2 (percent)
  - Government revenues grow: 10 (percent)
  - Gini (points difference): -4.1 (reduces to 34.7)
  - Note: This simulation does not change gender salary gaps or returns to education/experience.
- Simulation B — Equalizing returns from experience (male and female earnings per extra year of experience equalized):
  - Change in female labor force participation: 7.0 (ppts)
  - GDP gains after one generation: 10.5 (percent)
  - Government revenues grow: 8.5 (percent)
  - Women’s average earnings increase by 11 (percent)
  - Distributional note: Benefits concentrate more in the top 50 percent of the income distribution due to better-educated women being hired first.
- Comparative summary (figure values preserved):
  - Closing FLFP gap: Change in female labor force participation 20.7; GDP Gains 11.2; government revenues grow 10; Gini -4.1.
  - Equal return from experience: Change in female labor force participation 7.0; GDP Gains 10.5; government revenues grow 8.5; Gini -0.1.

### Policy recommendations (from conclusions)
- Legal and institutional reforms:
  - Accelerate harmonization and standardization of existing laws and circumscribe claw-back clauses affecting women’s economic empowerment in the new constitution.
  - Revise discretionary laws in family, inheritance, and property rights.
  - Ensure effective implementation and strengthen enforcement of laws and government policies through sensitization campaigns targeting religious and community leaders and civil society; train judges, law enforcement officers, and Cadis court officers.
- Public finance and programs:
  - Leverage the gender budgeting pilot to provide adequate funding to sectors supporting women’s health, childcare, and participation in secondary and tertiary education (including TVET).
  - Expand the Women Enterprise Fund (WEF) as an alternative funding framework for women entrepreneurs and support transition from informal to formal sector, including support to small scale farmers and use of digitalization for business structuring.
  - Implement the National Financial Inclusion plan focused on youth and women to increase women’s access to the formal financial sector.
- Political and social inclusion:
  - Provide opportunities for more women in decision-making, especially in regions and rural areas where vulnerability and discriminatory practices are higher.
- Social protection, food systems, and land:
  - Expand social safety nets using a reliable and dynamic social registry; invest in food systems to reduce food-price vulnerabilities; implement the green-recovery–focused National Development Plan to build resilience.
  - Invest in resilient agricultural production to reduce food prices and support rural women; contemplate land reform given land’s importance as a factor of production.

*Source: THE GAMBIA: MACROECONOMIC AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF GENDER GAPS (Selected Issues paper), December 18, 2023.*

### References

### References

### Gender, labor, and development studies
- Aguirre, D., L. Hoteit, C. Rupp, and K. Sabbagh, 2012, “Empowering the Third Billion. Women and the World of Work in 2012,” Booz and Company  
- Branisa, B., S. Klasen, & M. Ziegler. 2013. “Gender Inequality in Social Institutions.” World Development. Vol. 40, pp. 252-68.
- Caprioli, M. 2005. “Primed for Violence: The Role of Gender Inequality in Predicting Internal Conflict.” International Studies Quarterly. Vol. 49, pp. 161-78  
- World Bank. 2012. “World Development Report: Gender Equality and Development.” Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group.  
- The World Bank ‘Women's economic empowerment through public procurement—A solution multiplier’.
- The World Bank. “The Gambia Gender and Poverty Assessment 2022—Securing a Robust and Inclusive Growth” World Bank Poverty Team, June 2022.
- UN-Women. “Statement policy and texts outcome of Beijing+5”. ISBN: 978-1-936291-95-3. (1995)

### IMF research, country reports, and working papers
- Gonzales, C., S. Jain-Chandra, K. Kochhar, and M. Newiak, M., and T. Zeinullayev. 2015b. “Catalyst for Change: Empowering Women and Tackling Income Inequality.” Washington, DC: IMF, 2015. Staff Discussion Note 15/20. 
- IMF, 2015. “Regional Economic Outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa. Dealing with the Gathering Clouds.” Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. October.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2019a. “IMF 2019 Article IV Report for Nigeria, Selected Issues.” IMF Country Report 19/93, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2021. “IMF 2021 Article IV Report for Kenya.” IMF Country Report 21/276, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
- Kazandjian, R., L. Kolovich, K. Kochhar, and M. Newiak. 2016. “Gender Equality and Economic Diversification.” IMF Working Paper 16/140. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund
- Malta, V., A. Martinez, and M. M. Tavares. 2019. “A Quantitative Analysis of Female Employment in Senegal.” IMF Working Paper 19/241, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
- Rasmane Ouedraogo and Diego Gomes, 2023 “Macroeconomic Gains from Closing Gender Educational Gaps in Niger” IMF SIP/2023/006, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.  
- Can Sever, Edward Gemayel. “Legal Gender Equality as a Catalyst for Convergence”. IMF Working Paper. WP/22/155 (2022)

### The Gambia — national reports, assessments, and legal analysis
- World Bank 2022 “Securing a Robust and Inclusive Recovery: The Gambia Poverty and Gender Assessment 2022” Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group.
- The Ministry of Women Children and Social Welfare (MOWCSW) 2019 “National Review Report on Implementation of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action (BPFA) +25”; The Gambia
- UN Women 2020 “Mapping and Analysis of the Laws of The Gambia from a Gender Perspective: Towards Reversing Discrimination in Law”
- Draft National Development Plan 2023-2027, p 197.
- Nabaneh - ‘Women’s Political Participation and Representation in The Gambia: One step forward or two back?’ (2014)

### Books and broader economic literature
- Gene M. Grossman and Elhanan Helpman. “Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy". 384 pp., 6 x 9 in, Hardcover. ISBN : 9780262071369 (1991)
- Robert J. Barro and Xavier Sala-i-Martin. “Convergence across States and Regions”. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 100, No. 2 (Apr. 1992), pp. 223-251 (29 pages) Published By: The University of Chicago Press
- UNDP, "gender equality strategy, 2022–2025". Executive Board of the United Nations Development Programme, the United Nations Population Fund, and the United Nations Office for Project Services (11 April 2022)

*Source: sipea2024006 - References*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2024/english/sipea2024006.pdf_