## 2.   Gender Inequality in Outcomes

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [2.   Gender Inequality in Outcomes](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2024/english/sipea2024016.pdf)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2024/english/sipea2024016.pdf.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2024/english/sipea2024016.pdf.json)

---

### A. Macroeconomic relevance of gender equality
- Gender equality is a key element of sustainable and inclusive growth and a priority in the development agenda, including the 2030 Agenda of Sustainable Development.
- Cross-country data shows greater gender equality is associated with higher economic growth and lower income inequality.
- Direct channels through which gender equality improves economic performance:
  - higher female labor force participation and efficiency of allocation in the workforce;
  - faster productivity growth;
  - accumulation of human capital.
- Indirect channels include:
  - women in paid employment invest more in education, food, and health of their children;
  - promotion of economic diversification, enhanced competitiveness, and improved financial stability.
- Legal reforms that level the playing field can:
  - increase women’s participation in the labor force;
  - facilitate economic convergence for developing countries.
- Greater gender equality is associated with lower income inequality and poverty.

### B. Gender inequalities in the WAEMU — key findings
- Progress since the 1990s:
  - The WAEMU made significant progress during the last three decades in outcomes (GII), with heterogeneity across member countries.
  - Senegal has made significant recent improvements.
  - All WAEMU countries are currently ranked in the bottom 25th percentile globally on gender equality (country rankings between 131st for Senegal and 159th for Guinea-Bissau out of 170 countries).
  - The WAEMU has greater gender inequality in outcomes relative to the group of lower-middle income countries (LMICs), and the pace of progress was lower in the WAEMU compared to LMICs, widening the gap over time.

- Health and reproductive outcomes (2020 data):
  - Maternal mortality rate: around 405 (per 100,000 births) in the WAEMU versus 184 in LMICs.
  - Adolescent fertility rate: around 119 (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) in the WAEMU versus 40 in LMICs.
  - Implication: high adolescent fertility constrains girls’ continued education and workforce participation, especially for poorer women and where childcare facilities are not widespread.

- Education outcomes (2020/2021 data):
  - Primary education:
    - Primary school enrollment rate, female (gross): 89 percent in the WAEMU versus 105 percent in LMICs.
    - Gender parity index in primary education is about 5 percentage points lower in the WAEMU compared to LMICs.
  - Secondary education:
    - Secondary school enrollment rate, female (gross): 41 percent in the WAEMU versus 76 percent in LMICs.
    - Gender parity index gap in secondary education widens to 13 percentage points relative to LMICs.
  - Tertiary education:
    - Tertiary enrollment rate, female: around 7 percent in the WAEMU versus 31 percent in LMICs.
    - Gender parity index gap in tertiary education increases to 49 percentage points relative to LMICs.
  - Years of schooling:
    - The WAEMU lags LMICs on average years of schooling.
  - Implication: keeping girls in school longer is a particular challenge in the WAEMU, contributing to occupational segregation, lower-paying and less secure jobs for women.

- Labor market outcomes (2020 data):
  - Labor force participation, female (ages 15+): around 54 percent in the WAEMU versus 34 percent in LMICs.
  - Labor force participation gap (male minus female): 20 percentage points in the WAEMU versus 39 percentage points in LMICs.
  - Despite relatively high participation, women are more likely to work in informal and/or part-time jobs that are less secure, less stable and pay less.
  - Additional frictions: gender-based segregation, lack of higher education, limited skills, limited career prospects, and wage gaps.

- Business ownership and wages:
  - Businesses with at least one female owner: around 21 percent in the WAEMU (World Bank Enterprise Surveys).
  - Gender wage gap: men earn about 43 percent higher than women in the WAEMU (International Labour Organization; based on average monthly earnings). Data not available for Niger in the wage-gap chart.
  - Implication: low female business ownership and high wage gaps reflect disparities in entrepreneurship, positions of power, and link to large gender gap in higher education.

- Financial inclusion (2021 survey or latest available):
  - Percentage of females with an account at a financial institution or mobile money provider: around 34 percent in the WAEMU versus 60 percent in LMICs.
  - Account ownership gap (male minus female): 15 percentage points in the WAEMU versus 6 percentage points in LMICs.
  - Implication: limited financial inclusion constrains women’s ability to invest in education, cushion negative shocks (e.g., climate-related), and save for old age.

- Legal/economic rights (2021 data; World Bank law score/WBL index):
  - Women's economic rights law score: 72 in the WAEMU versus 69 in LMICs (index ranging 0-100).
  - Interpretation: women have around 72 percent of the economic rights enjoyed by men in the WAEMU; full parity would be associated with a score of 100.
  - Specific areas with lower legal protections than the overall law score: ensuring equal pay, equal economic rights for spouses, fair treatment of parents with a child, and equal rights regarding asset ownership.
  - Policy need: legal reforms and strengthening implementation (de jure to de facto) to improve gender equality in outcomes.

### C. Implications and overarching messages
- Gender equality is macro-critical for the WAEMU: empirical and model-based estimates suggest substantial economic gains from mitigating gender gaps in schooling and labor market outcomes.
- The WAEMU has made progress but remains behind LMIC peers across many outcome measures, particularly in higher education, maternal mortality, adolescent fertility, business ownership, wage parity, financial inclusion, and certain legal protections.
- A multifaceted and holistic policy approach is required across WAEMU member countries to unleash economic potential; specific policy mixes may vary by country.

### 10. Empirical estimates suggest that moving toward gender equality can significantly boost economic growth and income in the WAEMU

- Key empirical findings:
  - Higher gender inequality is negatively associated with economic growth in both LMICs and the WAEMU.
  - Cross-country comparison:
    - If the median WAEMU country in 2021 reaches the median of LMICs regarding gender equality (a 0.15-point decline in GII), the boost to the per capita growth rate would be about 1.7 percentage points on average.
    - The historical decline in the WAEMU GII since 1990 was about 0.1 points. The same 0.1-point decline predicts a 1.2 percentage points higher growth rate in the WAEMU, on average.
  - Local projections (Jordà 2005) on GDP per capita dynamics:
    - The cumulative boost in real GDP per capita would be around 8 percentage points over a 10-year period with a 0.1-point decrease in GII.
    - The coefficient estimates each year represent the average cumulative gain in real GDP per capita if GII decreases around 0.1 points at year 0. Dashed lines represent the 90 percent confidence interval. Standard errors are robust.

- Table results (regression of real GDP per capita growth on GII, controlling for year fixed effects; period 1990-2021):
  - LMICs (excluding WAEMU):
    - GII (t-1): -4.05*** (1.25)
    - Observations: 1210
    - R-squared: 0.15
  - WAEMU:
    - GII (t-1): -11.57** (4.84)
    - Observations: 232
    - R-squared: 0.26
  - Note: Standard errors in parenthesis are robust. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
  - The results remain similar if the lagged value of GDP per capita is included to account for different levels of development and convergence.

- Model-based and other empirical estimates of gains from closing gender gaps:
  - Senegal (Malta et al. 2019b): GDP can increase up to 10 percent if gender-based disparities in education and labor market are addressed.
  - Niger (Ouedraogo and Gomes 2023): Bridging gender-based gaps in education can boost GDP by around 11 percent.
  - Cuberes and Teignier (2016) estimates (income per capita gains if workforce disparities eliminated):
    - Burkina Faso: 18 percent
    - Côte d’Ivoire: 11 percent
    - Mali: 11 percent
    - Niger: 31 percent
    - Senegal: 17 percent
  - Pennings (2022): Closing gender-based gaps in labor markets could increase the WAEMU’s per capita GDP by at least about 18 percent in the long-run; country specifics:
    - Senegal: 26 percent
    - Mali: 20 percent
    - Côte d’Ivoire: 18 percent
  - IMF empirical analysis (WAEMU Selected Issues Paper 2019): GDP growth in WAEMU countries can increase by about 0.2-0.5 percentage points if gender-based disparities are brought to the levels observed in several African and Asian benchmark countries.

- Policy implications and priorities (recommended areas of focus):
  - improving accessibility of health services for women;
  - increasing access and quality of education for girls, ensuring their stay in school and entry into employment after education;
  - achieving greater and more effective participation of women in the workforce;
  - promoting women’s financial inclusion;
  - reforming laws to level the playing field for women and men.
- A holistic approach is needed; selection and extent of policies may vary by member state. A comprehensive assessment of impediments at national and regional levels, initiated and coordinated at the WAEMU level, can be useful to set up a roadmap.

- Regional and national initiatives (examples):
  - Regional:
    - WAEMU Commission: 10-year Gender Strategy adopted in 2018 with two pillars—developing frameworks for gender mainstreaming and supporting initiatives for women’s empowerment. Activities include training to raise awareness and developing guidelines for gender budgeting; a network to support women entrepreneurs has been launched but operations remain limited due to constrained resources.
    - BCEAO: Financial Inclusion Strategy adopted by the Council of Ministers in 2016 emphasizes women’s access to financial services; Regional Financial Education Program aims to improve financial literacy for women and girls.
  - National examples:
    - Côte d’Ivoire: program with financial support and agricultural equipment to women in food production; steps to facilitate access to health services; policies to improve women’s financial inclusion.
    - Senegal: gender budgeting for 7 years; accounting for gender impact in public investment strategy; plans to increase social spending targeting women; measures to address girls’ transition from primary to secondary education; training and credit for female entrepreneurs.
    - Benin: gender budgeting; initiatives addressing gender gaps in the tax code; strengthening legal protections against gender-based violence; expanding women’s access to health services; improving women’s political representation; free secondary education to keep girls in school.
    - Togo: legislative reforms in social protection, inheritance, and criminal law; gender budgeting reforms with IMF technical assistance.
    - Niger: new National Gender Policy aiming to close gender disparities in primary and secondary education enrollment by 2027.
    - Mali: introduced gender quotas in public agencies; engagement with women’s rights organizations to increase women’s participation in decision-making.
    - Burkina Faso: gender budgeting since 2014; gender mainstreaming since the 2018 budget circular.

- Complementarities and sequencing of policies:
  - Complementarities across domains increase effectiveness:
    - Labor market policies without closing tertiary education gaps may have limited impact.
    - Keeping girls longer in school will be undermined if adolescent fertility rates remain high and childcare is unavailable.
    - Support for women-owned businesses may be ineffective unless legal guarantees for women’s autonomy in marriage are in place.
    - Public education programs to change perceptions can enhance effectiveness of other policies by addressing social norms and cultural drivers.
  - When complementary policies are implemented together, WAEMU countries can reap large economic gains in the short and medium term.

- Shocks, vulnerabilities, and urgency for action:
  - COVID-19 pandemic: disproportionate effect on women’s employment; school dropouts among girls rose more than boys after school closures, particularly in poorer and rural areas.
  - Climate-related disasters: events have become more frequent and larger in recent years (climate-related disasters considered over the period of 1966-2022); these deepen gender inequalities because women have limited access to resources, undertake unpaid care work, and are more likely to be employed in less secure, climate-prone jobs such as agriculture.
  - Security challenges: internal conflicts and violence, plus forced migration, likely widen gender-based disparities and increase gender-based violence; total number of internally displaced persons amounts to 2.7 million in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
  - Empirical evidence links gender-based violence with lower economic performance.

- Key statistics and precise figures cited:
  - 0.15-point decline in GII → about 1.7 percentage points boost to per capita growth (median WAEMU compared to median LMICs, 2021).
  - 0.1-point decline in GII (decline in WAEMU since 1990) → predicts 1.2 percentage points higher growth rate in the WAEMU, on average.
  - Cumulative boost in real GDP per capita ≈ 8 percentage points over a 10-year period for a 0.1-point GII decrease.
  - Table 1 regression coefficients:
    - GII (t-1) LMICs: -4.05*** (1.25)
    - GII (t-1) WAEMU: -11.57** (4.84)
    - Observations: 1210 (LMICs), 232 (WAEMU)
    - R-squared: 0.15 (LMICs), 0.26 (WAEMU)
  - Model-based GDP gain examples:
    - Senegal: up to 10 percent
    - Niger: around 11 percent
    - Cuberes and Teignier (2016) country gains: Burkina Faso 18 percent; Côte d’Ivoire 11 percent; Mali 11 percent; Niger 31 percent; Senegal 17 percent
    - Pennings (2022): WAEMU per capita GDP increase at least about 18 percent long-run; Senegal 26 percent; Mali 20 percent; Côte d’Ivoire 18 percent
    - IMF WAEMU Selected Issues Paper 2019: GDP growth increase about 0.2-0.5 percentage points if disparities aligned with benchmark countries
  - Internal displacement: 2.7 million internally displaced persons in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
  - Climate-related disasters data period: 1966-2022.
  - Annualized data on security incidents in 2023 is based on mid-September 2023.
  - Confidence intervals: figure uses 90 percent confidence interval.

*Source: sipea2024016 — WEST AFRICAN ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.*

### 2.   Gender Inequality in Outcomes _____________________________________________________ 5

### 2.   Gender Inequality in Outcomes

### A. Macroeconomic relevance of gender equality
- Gender equality is a key element of sustainable and inclusive growth and a priority in the development agenda, including the 2030 Agenda of Sustainable Development.
- Cross-country data shows greater gender equality is associated with higher economic growth and lower income inequality (Figure 1).
- Direct channels through which gender equality improves economic performance:
  - higher female labor force participation and efficiency of allocation in the workforce;
  - faster productivity growth;
  - accumulation of human capital.
- Indirect channels include:
  - women in paid employment invest more in education, food, and health of their children (Schultz 2002, World Bank 2012);
  - promotion of economic diversification, enhanced competitiveness, and improved financial stability (WEF 2014, Kazanjian et al. 2016, Kochhar et al. 2017, Sahay and Cihak 2018).
- Legal reforms that level the playing field can:
  - increase women’s participation in the labor force;
  - facilitate economic convergence for developing countries (Sever 2022, 2023).
- Greater gender equality is associated with lower income inequality and poverty (Gonzales et al. 2015).

### B. Gender inequalities in the WAEMU — key findings
- Progress since the 1990s:
  - The WAEMU made significant progress during the last three decades in outcomes (GII), with heterogeneity across member countries.
  - Senegal has made significant recent improvements.
  - All WAEMU countries are currently ranked in the bottom 25th percentile globally on gender equality (country rankings between 131st for Senegal and 159th for Guinea-Bissau out of 170 countries).
  - The WAEMU has greater gender inequality in outcomes relative to the group of lower-middle income countries (LMICs), and the pace of progress was lower in the WAEMU compared to LMICs, widening the gap over time.

- Health and reproductive outcomes (2020 data):
  - Maternal mortality rate: around 405 (per 100,000 births) in the WAEMU versus 184 in LMICs.
  - Adolescent fertility rate: around 119 (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) in the WAEMU versus 40 in LMICs.
  - Implication: high adolescent fertility constrains girls’ continued education and workforce participation, especially for poorer women and where childcare facilities are not widespread.

- Education outcomes (2020/2021 data):
  - Primary education:
    - Primary school enrollment rate, female (gross): 89 percent in the WAEMU versus 105 percent in LMICs.
    - Gender parity index in primary education is about 5 percentage points lower in the WAEMU compared to LMICs.
  - Secondary education:
    - Secondary school enrollment rate, female (gross): 41 percent in the WAEMU versus 76 percent in LMICs.
    - Gender parity index gap in secondary education widens to 13 percentage points relative to LMICs.
  - Tertiary education:
    - Tertiary enrollment rate, female: around 7 percent in the WAEMU versus 31 percent in LMICs.
    - Gender parity index gap in tertiary education increases to 49 percentage points relative to LMICs.
  - Years of schooling:
    - The WAEMU lags LMICs on average years of schooling (Figure 7, 2021 data).
  - Implication: keeping girls in school longer is a particular challenge in the WAEMU, contributing to occupational segregation, lower-paying and less secure jobs for women.

- Labor market outcomes (2020 data):
  - Labor force participation, female (ages 15+): around 54 percent in the WAEMU versus 34 percent in LMICs.
  - Labor force participation gap (male minus female): 20 percentage points in the WAEMU versus 39 percentage points in LMICs.
  - Despite relatively high participation, women are more likely to work in informal and/or part-time jobs that are less secure, less stable and pay less.
  - Additional frictions: gender-based segregation, lack of higher education, limited skills, limited career prospects, and wage gaps.

- Business ownership and wages:
  - Businesses with at least one female owner: around 21 percent in the WAEMU (World Bank Enterprise Surveys).
  - Gender wage gap: men earn about 43 percent higher than women in the WAEMU (International Labour Organization; based on average monthly earnings). Data not available for Niger in the wage-gap chart.
  - Implication: low female business ownership and high wage gaps reflect disparities in entrepreneurship, positions of power, and link to large gender gap in higher education.

- Financial inclusion (2021 survey or latest available):
  - Percentage of females with an account at a financial institution or mobile money provider: around 34 percent in the WAEMU versus 60 percent in LMICs.
  - Account ownership gap (male minus female): 15 percentage points in the WAEMU versus 6 percentage points in LMICs.
  - Implication: limited financial inclusion constrains women’s ability to invest in education, cushion negative shocks (e.g., climate-related), and save for old age.

- Legal/economic rights (2021 data; World Bank law score/WBL index):
  - Women's economic rights law score: 72 in the WAEMU versus 69 in LMICs (index ranging 0-100).
  - Interpretation: women have around 72 percent of the economic rights enjoyed by men in the WAEMU; full parity would be associated with a score of 100.
  - Specific areas with lower legal protections than the overall law score: ensuring equal pay, equal economic rights for spouses, fair treatment of parents with a child, and equal rights regarding asset ownership.
  - Policy need: legal reforms and strengthening implementation (de jure to de facto) to improve gender equality in outcomes.

### C. Implications and overarching messages
- Gender equality is macro-critical for the WAEMU: empirical and model-based estimates suggest substantial economic gains from mitigating gender gaps in schooling and labor market outcomes.
- The WAEMU has made progress but remains behind LMIC peers across many outcome measures, particularly in higher education, maternal mortality, adolescent fertility, business ownership, wage parity, financial inclusion, and certain legal protections.
- A multifaceted and holistic policy approach is required across WAEMU member countries to unleash economic potential; specific policy mixes may vary by country.  

*Source: sipea2024016 - 2. Gender Inequality in Outcomes (IMF, March 1, 2024).*

### 10.      Empirical estimates suggest that moving toward gender equality can significantly

### 10. Empirical estimates suggest that moving toward gender equality can significantly boost economic growth and income in the WAEMU

### Key empirical findings
- Higher gender inequality is negatively associated with economic growth in both LMICs and the WAEMU.
- Cross-country comparison:
  - If the median WAEMU country in 2021 reaches the median of LMICs regarding gender equality (a 0.15-point decline in GII), the boost to the per capita growth rate would be about 1.7 percentage points on average.
  - The historical decline in the WAEMU GII since 1990 was about 0.1 points. The same 0.1-point decline predicts a 1.2 percentage points higher growth rate in the WAEMU, on average.
- Local projections (Jordà 2005) on GDP per capita dynamics:
  - The cumulative boost in real GDP per capita would be around 8 percentage points over a 10-year period with a 0.1-point decrease in GII.
  - The coefficient estimates each year represent the average cumulative gain in real GDP per capita if GII decreases around 0.1 points at year 0. Dashed lines represent the 90 percent confidence interval. Standard errors are robust.

### Table results (regression of real GDP per capita growth on GII, controlling for year fixed effects; period 1990-2021)
- LMICs (excluding WAEMU):
  - GII (t-1): -4.05*** (1.25)
  - Observations: 1210
  - R-squared: 0.15
- WAEMU:
  - GII (t-1): -11.57** (4.84)
  - Observations: 232
  - R-squared: 0.26
- Note: Standard errors in parenthesis are robust. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
- The results remain similar if the lagged value of GDP per capita is included to account for different levels of development and convergence.

### Model-based and other empirical estimates of gains from closing gender gaps
- Senegal (Malta et al. 2019b): GDP can increase up to 10 percent if gender-based disparities in education and labor market are addressed.
- Niger (Ouedraogo and Gomes 2023): Bridging gender-based gaps in education can boost GDP by around 11 percent.
- Cuberes and Teignier (2016) estimates (income per capita gains if workforce disparities eliminated):
  - Burkina Faso: 18 percent
  - Côte d’Ivoire: 11 percent
  - Mali: 11 percent
  - Niger: 31 percent
  - Senegal: 17 percent
- Pennings (2022): Closing gender-based gaps in labor markets could increase the WAEMU’s per capita GDP by at least about 18 percent in the long-run; country specifics:
  - Senegal: 26 percent
  - Mali: 20 percent
  - Côte d’Ivoire: 18 percent
- IMF empirical analysis (WAEMU Selected Issues Paper 2019): GDP growth in WAEMU countries can increase by about 0.2-0.5 percentage points if gender-based disparities are brought to the levels observed in several African and Asian benchmark countries.

### Policy implications and priorities (recommended areas of focus)
- Policies should be aimed at:
  - improving accessibility of health services for women;
  - increasing access and quality of education for girls, ensuring their stay in school and entry into employment after education;
  - achieving greater and more effective participation of women in the workforce;
  - promoting women’s financial inclusion;
  - reforming laws to level the playing field for women and men.
- A holistic approach is needed; selection and extent of policies may vary by member state. A comprehensive assessment of impediments at national and regional levels, initiated and coordinated at the WAEMU level, can be useful to set up a roadmap.

### Regional and national initiatives (examples)
- Regional:
  - WAEMU Commission: 10-year Gender Strategy adopted in 2018 with two pillars—developing frameworks for gender mainstreaming and supporting initiatives for women’s empowerment. Activities include training to raise awareness and developing guidelines for gender budgeting; a network to support women entrepreneurs has been launched but operations remain limited due to constrained resources.
  - BCEAO: Financial Inclusion Strategy adopted by the Council of Ministers in 2016 emphasizes women’s access to financial services; Regional Financial Education Program aims to improve financial literacy for women and girls.
- National examples:
  - Côte d’Ivoire: program with financial support and agricultural equipment to women in food production; steps to facilitate access to health services; policies to improve women’s financial inclusion.
  - Senegal: gender budgeting for 7 years; accounting for gender impact in public investment strategy; plans to increase social spending targeting women; measures to address girls’ transition from primary to secondary education; training and credit for female entrepreneurs.
  - Benin: gender budgeting; initiatives addressing gender gaps in the tax code; strengthening legal protections against gender-based violence; expanding women’s access to health services; improving women’s political representation; free secondary education to keep girls in school.
  - Togo: legislative reforms in social protection, inheritance, and criminal law; gender budgeting reforms with IMF technical assistance.
  - Niger: new National Gender Policy aiming to close gender disparities in primary and secondary education enrollment by 2027.
  - Mali: introduced gender quotas in public agencies; engagement with women’s rights organizations to increase women’s participation in decision-making.
  - Burkina Faso: gender budgeting since 2014; gender mainstreaming since the 2018 budget circular.

### Complementarities and sequencing of policies
- Complementarities across domains increase effectiveness:
  - Labor market policies without closing tertiary education gaps may have limited impact.
  - Keeping girls longer in school will be undermined if adolescent fertility rates remain high and childcare is unavailable.
  - Support for women-owned businesses may be ineffective unless legal guarantees for women’s autonomy in marriage are in place.
  - Public education programs to change perceptions can enhance effectiveness of other policies by addressing social norms and cultural drivers.
- When complementary policies are implemented together, WAEMU countries can reap large economic gains in the short and medium term.

### Shocks, vulnerabilities, and urgency for action
- Recent shocks likely exacerbate gender-based disparities and call for accelerated policy action:
  - COVID-19 pandemic: disproportionate effect on women’s employment; school dropouts among girls rose more than boys after school closures, particularly in poorer and rural areas.
  - Climate-related disasters: events have become more frequent and larger in recent years (climate-related disasters considered over the period of 1966-2022); these deepen gender inequalities because women have limited access to resources, undertake unpaid care work, and are more likely to be employed in less secure, climate-prone jobs such as agriculture.
  - Security challenges: internal conflicts and violence, plus forced migration, likely widen gender-based disparities and increase gender-based violence; total number of internally displaced persons amounts to 2.7 million in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
- Empirical evidence links gender-based violence with lower economic performance (Ouedraogo and Stenzel 2021).

### Key statistics and precise figures cited
- 0.15-point decline in GII → about 1.7 percentage points boost to per capita growth (median WAEMU compared to median LMICs, 2021).
- 0.1-point decline in GII (decline in WAEMU since 1990) → predicts 1.2 percentage points higher growth rate in the WAEMU, on average.
- Cumulative boost in real GDP per capita ≈ 8 percentage points over a 10-year period for a 0.1-point GII decrease.
- Table 1 regression coefficients:
  - GII (t-1) LMICs: -4.05*** (1.25)
  - GII (t-1) WAEMU: -11.57** (4.84)
  - Observations: 1210 (LMICs), 232 (WAEMU)
  - R-squared: 0.15 (LMICs), 0.26 (WAEMU)
- Model-based GDP gain examples:
  - Senegal: up to 10 percent (Malta et al. 2019b)
  - Niger: around 11 percent (Ouedraogo and Gomes 2023)
  - Cuberes and Teignier (2016) country gains: Burkina Faso 18 percent; Côte d’Ivoire 11 percent; Mali 11 percent; Niger 31 percent; Senegal 17 percent
  - Pennings (2022): WAEMU per capita GDP increase at least about 18 percent long-run; Senegal 26 percent; Mali 20 percent; Côte d’Ivoire 18 percent
  - IMF WAEMU Selected Issues Paper 2019: GDP growth increase about 0.2-0.5 percentage points if disparities aligned with benchmark countries
- Internal displacement: 2.7 million internally displaced persons in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
- Climate-related disasters data period: 1966-2022.
- Annualized data on security incidents in 2023 is based on mid-September 2023.
- Confidence intervals: figure uses 90 percent confidence interval.

*Source: sipea2024016 — WEST AFRICAN ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2024/english/sipea2024016.pdf_