## 1. Primary Education Attainment and Economic Growth ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [1. Primary Education Attainment and Economic Growth](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2025/english/sipea2025027.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2025/english/sipea2025027.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2025/english/sipea2025027.pdf.json) --- ### Overview and key finding - Focus: first strategic pillar of LOSEM—availability of well-trained, motivated, and competent teachers. - Principal quantitative finding: doubling the share of qualified primary school teachers could raise per capita real GDP growth by around 2.5 to 3.1 percentage points in Madagascar. ### Human capital and learning outcomes - HCI in Madagascar: 0.39 in 2020. - Comparators: SSA average HCI 0.40; LICs average HCI 0.37. - Education-component trends (2010–2020): - Standardized test scores declined by about 19 percent between 2010 to 2020. - Standardized score scale referenced: 300 (minimum) to 625 (advanced); performance is barely above 300. - Expected years of schooling increased and remained above SSA and LIC comparators. - Learning poverty and skill attainment: - 24 percent of children of primary school age are out of school. - 97 percent of Malagasy children aged ten are classified as “learning poor” (unable to read and understand a simple text). - PASEC2019: 83 percent of students reach the end of primary school without basic numeracy skills; 78 percent without basic reading skills. - Historical comparators (1998): 42 percent and 46 percent reached the end of primary without basic numeracy and reading skills respectively. - Completion, retention and transition: - Only 1 in 3 students completes primary school. - Of those who complete primary, 60 percent continue to middle school. - Of students entering middle school, 60 percent eventually complete it. - Of middle-school graduates, just under 60 percent start high school. - Aggregate implication: out of every 100 children entering primary school, only 7 eventually reach high school. ### Access and participation indicators - Net primary school enrollment rate: 97.9 percent in 2022. - Literacy rate: 80 percent in 2021. - Completion rate of the first cycle of secondary education: 30.2 percent in 2023. - Participation in pre-primary learning: 39.5 percent in 2023. ### Demographic context and potential dividend - Madagascar population projection: from 27 million to 52 million between 2018 and 2050. - Working-age population projection: from 15 million to 33 million. - Regional context: SSA projected to account for more than 20 percent of the global workforce by 2050 (World population 9.7 billion; SSA contribution 2 billion). ### Public spending on education and financing gaps - Average public spending on education in Madagascar (2010–2022): 2.7 percent of GDP. - Comparators: SSA average 4.1 percent of GDP; LICs average 13.4 percent of GDP. - SDG funding gap: current 4.4 percent of GDP in 2020 versus needed 12.3 percent of GDP in 2030 — a gap of about 8 percentage points of GDP. - Spending per student gap: US$123 (US$79.3 in 2020 versus US$ 201.9 in 2030). - Budget execution issues: executed share has barely increased since 2018 and remains below the 20 percent recommended by UNICEF. ### Teacher supply, qualifications and regional disparities - Proportion of primary teachers with minimum required qualifications (2014–2019): 15.2 percent on average in Madagascar. - Comparators: SSA average 79.4 percent; LICs average 76.1 percent. - Ratio of students to qualified teachers (2019): 240:1 in Madagascar. - District heterogeneity: - Student-to-qualified-teacher ratio falls below 100 in only 28 districts (around the capital). - Student-to-qualified-teacher ratio exceeds 500 in 24 districts in the south and western parts of the country. - In 2023, only 3.6 percent of teachers in Madagascar mastered their subject content (World Bank estimate). - Breakdown and status of teachers: - From 2004 to 2024, FRAM teacher numbers rose from 13,000 to 90,180; FRAM now represent more than 50 percent of teachers in the public education sector. - At primary school level, FRAM teachers (subsidized and unsubsidized) make up 51 percent of teachers; contractual and civil servant teachers hired and paid by the state form 41 percent of the teaching force. - According to the INFP database, over 85 percent of FRAM teachers are not qualified (lack a pedagogical diploma). ### Evidence on education quality and growth; role of teacher training - Cross-country and literature evidence: - Positive correlation across LICs between real GDP per capita growth and the share of the working-age population with at least primary school education. - Barro (2000): higher human capital via education (especially secondary and higher) facilitates technology absorption and growth. - Hanushek and Kimko (2000): quality of education (test scores) is a stronger determinant of economic growth than quantity of schooling. - Glewwe, Maiga, and Zheng (2014): low education quality in SSA contributes to lower economic growth relative to East Asia. - Teacher quality as key input: - Bietenbeck et al. (2023): teacher subject knowledge explains 37 percent of the variation in average student achievement across countries in francophone SSA, including Madagascar. - Angrist et al. (2024): interventions targeting productivity of schooling (training, monitoring, raising pedagogical standards) are among the most cost-effective ways to raise a country’s LAYS. - Other randomized and impact-evaluation evidence supports positive effects of teacher training on student outcomes. ### Empirical correlations and estimated impacts - Positive correlation between proportion of qualified primary teachers and LAYS across SSA countries; Madagascar is an outlier with both low LAYS and low teacher qualification. - Estimated impacts: - A 1-year increase in LAYS raises economic growth by 7 percentage points among LICs and countries in SSA. - Among LICs, a 0.1 unit increase in HCI raises economic growth by about 0.2 percentage point. - Madagascar’s LAYS in 2018: 4.7 years; SSA average LAYS in 2018: 5.1 years; LICs average LAYS in 2018: 5.5 years. - Raising Madagascar’s LAYS to the SSA average would imply a 2.8 percentage points increase in real GDP per capita growth relative to the baseline. - Teacher-training growth linkage: - A 10-percentage point increase in the share of qualified teachers in primary school would raise LAYS by about 0.3 years among both LICs and countries in SSA. - Combining with the 1-year → 7 percentage points estimate, increasing the share of qualified teachers by 10-percentage points would boost per capita real growth by 2.1 percentage points. - Doubling the share of trained teachers in primary school (from 15.2 percent to about half of levels seen in SSA and LICs) would raise LAYS by about 0.4 year and thus boost growth by between 2.5 to 3.1 percentage points in Madagascar. ### Complementarity between primary attainment and demographic dividend; Madagascar-specific estimates - Complementarity: greater primary education attainment raises economic growth mainly via positive interaction with share of working-age population; statistically significant for LICs only. - Regression framework marginal impact: α3 + α6 log(working_ageit−1). - Demographic projection and implied impact: - Share of working-age population in Madagascar expected to increase from 53 percent in 2023 to 63 percent in 2050. - Regression estimates imply that a 1 percentage point increase in primary education attainment would yield an additional 0.6 percentage point rise in real GDP per capita by 2050. - Current levels and counterfactual: - Current primary school completion among the working-age population: around 20 percent. - At current levels, the rise in working-age share in the next two decades would have no significant impact on growth. - If primary school attainment among the working-age population were to meet the SSA average (around 60 percent), the projected 5 percentage points increase in working-age population in Madagascar would raise annual real GDP per capita growth by 4 percentage points. ### Constraints on teaching quality, supervision, and satisfaction - Major bottlenecks: - Insufficient number of qualified teachers due to lack of resources dedicated to training. - Non-transparent and non-competitive recruitment process. - Poor support and supervision of teachers. - Recruitment and qualifications: - 41 percent of civil servant teachers and 64 percent of FRAM teachers surveyed reported they did not participate in a competitive recruitment process (World Bank study). - From INFP and survey evidence: - PASEC2019: only 11 percent of Malagasy teachers reach the highest level of the skills scale in reading comprehension and 24 percent in mathematics. - SDI 2021: proportion of teachers with minimum knowledge and skills is 3 percent in French and 8 percent in mathematics. - Supervision and satisfaction: - Just over half of teachers are adequately supervised (PASEC2019). - PASEC2019: 55 percent of teachers are not satisfied with their salary level; 37 percent complain about irregularity of pay; 24 percent find that professional training opportunities are lacking. - UNICEF 2023 survey: contractual and subsidized FRAM teachers are 14 percentage points less likely to be satisfied and unsubsidized FRAM teachers 24 percentage points less likely to be satisfied with their job compared to civil servant counterparts. ### Education infrastructure, governance, and leakages - Budget execution rate on resources allocated to decentralized technical, coaching and supervision support to teachers in schools: 47 percent (2019). - SDI 2021 averages on infrastructure and inputs: - An average school has access to only 34 percent of the infrastructure essential for learning. - 0.4 percent of schools have access to electricity. - 2 percent have internet. - 8 percent have access to functional and clean toilets. - 50 percent of schools have potable water sources. - 83 percent of schools have blackboards. - 4 percent have enough textbooks. - 23 percent have access to educational technologies. - 16 percent have access to stationery. - 23 percent have access to furniture. - Financial governance and loss rates (PETS / UNICEF 2021): - Loss rates in compensation for civil servant teachers: about 11.8 percent (2018) and 8.8 percent (2019). - Loss rates for community teachers: 28.5 percent (2018) and 23.7 percent (2019). - Loss rates for school funds: 19.1 percent (2018) and 18.4 percent (2019). - Teacher absenteeism (proportion providing teaching services in line with paid hours): - Civil servant teachers: 46.4 percent (2018) and 13.4 percent (2019). - Community teachers: 47.8 percent (2018) and 54.3 percent (2019). ### Projected costs to raise qualified-teacher numbers (Box 5 assumptions and simulation) - Enrollment and projection assumptions: - Primary school enrollment tripled between 1998 and 2023 and is projected to increase at an annual rate of 3 percent thereafter. - Number of pupils at primary level expected to increase from about 4.2 million in 2023 to about 5.4 million in 2031 at a 3 percent annual rate. - UNICEF estimate to reach standard of 40 students per qualified teacher: total of about MGA 181.7 billion (US$ 40.4 million) needed per year until 2031. - Estimate includes total cost of primary school teacher training at MGA 15.7 million (US$ 3.5 million) per year and cumulative additional salaries at about MGA 71.8 billion (about US$ 16 million). - Box 5 specific assumptions and unit costs: - Primary school enrollment increasing at an annual rate of 3.02 percent. - Target student to qualified teacher ratio: 40:1, implying 14,500 teachers require continuous training annually and 2000 require initial training at the INFP annually. - Number of civil servants and contract teachers currently in post remains constant (numerical replacements in state budget as retirements occur). - INFP continues production of 2,000 teachers every two years, absorbed into public sector within 12 months. - All qualified teachers from continuing education will be recruited as contractual teachers. - Unit cost of initial training estimated at MGA 600,000 (US$ 133) per teacher-student without teacher salary. - Unit cost of continuous training estimated at MGA 1,000,000 (US$ 222) per teacher. - Given unit training costs and number of teachers to be trained annually, total annual cost of training estimated at around US$ 3.5 million. - Average gross monthly salary estimates: civil servant and contract teachers at MGA 932,000 (US$ 207) and MGA 651,000 (US$ 145) respectively. - UNICEF simulation interpreted as a lower bound of total cost of attaining the 40:1 student to qualified teacher ratio. - Alternative estimate note: - World Bank estimates initial cost of qualifying a teacher with a high-school certificate would be at least 900 US dollars and even higher for a teacher without a high-school certificate; this is far above the UNICEF estimate of 133 US dollars used in Box 5. ### Estimated annual costs (2025–2031) — figures as presented - Total cost of training: - 2025: 3,488,889 - 2026: 3,488,889 - 2027: 3,488,889 - 2028: 3,488,889 - 2029: 3,488,889 - 2030: 3,488,889 - 2031: 3,488,889 - Total additional salary cost: - 2025: 2,551,889 - 2026: 4,609,556 - 2027: 6,996,556 - 2028: 9,094,222 - 2029: 11,481,222 - 2030: 13,578,889 - 2031: 15,965,889 - Total additional cost of reform: - 2025: 6,040,778 - 2026: 8,098,445 - 2027: 10,485,445 - 2028: 12,583,111 - 2029: 14,970,111 - 2030: 17,067,778 - 2031: 19,454,778 ### Policy implications and recommendations - Raise the number and share of qualified primary teachers to improve education quality and maximize Madagascar’s growth potential. - Prioritize reforms to make the teaching profession more attractive over the longer term, including: - increasing the competitiveness of teacher compensation, - improving career progression structures, - alleviating job precarity, - improving medical benefits. - Invest in professional development beyond initial teacher training, align career incentives with professional development goals, and provide follow-up support after initial qualification. - Promote meritocratic selection and effective deployment of teachers to lift teaching standards. - Implement a broader program of education reform recognizing teacher qualification as one input alongside: - adequate infrastructure, - availability of teaching materials, - school feeding program (in the case of Madagascar). - Address weak financial governance, budget execution, infrastructure deficits, and resource leakages to ensure spending translates into improved teacher quality and learning outcomes. *Source: IMF Staff Estimates; content unit from sipea2025027 (Selected Issues Paper PDF).* ### 1. Primary Education Attainment and Economic Growth _____________________________ 11 ### 1. Primary Education Attainment and Economic Growth ### Overview and key finding - The paper focuses on the first strategic pillar of LOSEM: availability of well-trained, motivated, and competent teachers. - Principal quantitative finding: doubling the share of qualified primary school teachers could raise per capita real GDP growth by around 2.5 to 3.1 percentage points in Madagascar. ### Human capital and learning outcomes - Human Capital Index (HCI) in Madagascar: 0.39 in 2020. - Comparators: SSA average HCI 0.40; low-income countries (LICs) average HCI 0.37. - Education-component trends (2010–2020): - Standardized test scores declined by about 19 percent between 2010 to 2020. - Standardized score scale referenced: 300 (minimum) to 625 (advanced); performance is barely above 300. - Expected years of schooling increased and remained above SSA and LIC comparators. - Learning poverty and skill attainment: - 24 percent of children of primary school age are out of school. - 97 percent of Malagasy children aged ten are classified as “learning poor” (unable to read and understand a simple text). - PASEC2019: 83 percent of students reach the end of primary school without basic numeracy skills; 78 percent without basic reading skills. - Historical comparators: in 1998, 42 percent and 46 percent reached the end of primary without basic numeracy and reading skills respectively. - Completion, retention and transition: - Only 1 in 3 students completes primary school. - Of those who complete primary, 60 percent continue to middle school. - Of students entering middle school, 60 percent eventually complete it. - Of middle-school graduates, just under 60 percent start high school. - Aggregate implication: out of every 100 children entering primary school, only 7 eventually reach high school. ### Access and participation indicators - Net primary school enrollment rate: 97.9 percent in 2022. - Literacy rate: 80 percent in 2021. - Completion rate of the first cycle of secondary education: 30.2 percent in 2023. - Participation in pre-primary learning: 39.5 percent in 2023. ### Demographic context and potential dividend - Madagascar population projection: from 27 million to 52 million between 2018 and 2050. - Working-age population projection: from 15 million to 33 million (implying more than doubling of working-age population by 2050). - Regional context: SSA projected to account for more than 20 percent of the global workforce by 2050 (World population 9.7 billion; SSA contribution 2 billion). ### Public spending on education and financing gaps - Average public spending on education in Madagascar (2010–2022): 2.7 percent of GDP. - Comparators: SSA average 4.1 percent of GDP; LICs average 13.4 percent of GDP. - SDG funding gap: current 4.4 percent of GDP in 2020 versus needed 12.3 percent of GDP in 2030 — a gap of about 8 percentage points of GDP. - Spending per student gap: US$123 (US$79.3 in 2020 versus US$ 201.9 in 2030). - Budget execution issues: budget allocated to education is not always fully executed; the executed share has barely increased since 2018 and remains below the 20 percent recommended by UNICEF. ### Teacher supply, qualifications and regional disparities - Proportion of primary teachers with minimum required qualifications (2014–2019): 15.2 percent on average in Madagascar. - Comparators: SSA average 79.4 percent; LICs average 76.1 percent. - Ratio of students to qualified teachers (2019): 240:1 in Madagascar. - District heterogeneity: - Student-to-qualified-teacher ratio falls below 100 in only 28 districts (around the capital). - Student-to-qualified-teacher ratio exceeds 500 in 24 districts in the south and western parts of the country. - In 2023, only 3.6 percent of teachers in Madagascar mastered their subject content (World Bank estimate). - Breakdown and status of teachers and regional distribution are highlighted as substantial sources of inequality in access to qualified teaching. ### Evidence on education quality and growth; role of teacher training - Cross-country and literature evidence: - Positive correlation across LICs between real GDP per capita growth and the share of the working-age population with at least primary school education. - Literature highlights: - Barro (2000): higher human capital via education (especially secondary and higher) facilitates technology absorption and growth. - Hanushek and Kimko (2000): quality of education (test scores) is a stronger determinant of economic growth than quantity of schooling. - Glewwe, Maiga, and Zheng (2014): low education quality in SSA contributes to lower economic growth relative to East Asia. - Teacher quality as key input: - Bietenbeck et al. (2023): teacher subject knowledge explains 37 percent of the variation in average student achievement across countries in francophone SSA, including Madagascar. - Angrist et al. (2024): interventions targeting productivity of schooling (training, monitoring, raising pedagogical standards) are among the most cost-effective ways to raise a country’s LAYS. - Other randomized and impact-evaluation evidence cited (e.g., Buhl-Wiggers et al. 2017; Angrist and Lavy 2001; Metzler and Woessmann 2012) supports positive effects of teacher training on student outcomes. ### Empirical correlations highlighted - Positive correlation between the proportion of qualified primary teachers and learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS) across SSA countries; Madagascar is an outlier with both low LAYS and low teacher qualification. ### Policy focus in the paper - The analysis emphasizes teacher training as a critical lever to improve education quality and, in turn, economic growth. - The paper quantifies spending needs for recruiting and training primary school teachers (with focus on current unqualified teachers) to meet projected needs over the next 6 years, and derives policy implications (detailed costing and policy recommendations are presented in later sections of the paper). *Prepared by Kodjovi Eklou, Ialy Rasoamanana and Joanne Tan (IMF), Mamy Andrianarilala, Rolland Andrianjaka and Chrystelle Tsafack (UNICEF), and Almedina Music (World Bank).* ### 14. In addition, increasing primary education attainment among the working-age ### sipea2025027 - 14. In addition, increasing primary education attainment among the working-age ### Complementarity between primary education attainment and the demographic dividend - Greater primary school education attainment raises economic growth mainly via its positive interaction with the share of working-age population (reference to Text Box 1). - Two interpretations of the complementarity: - Countries with a greater share of working-age population enjoy larger economic gains from improvements in primary education attainment. - Countries with a higher share of primary education reap a larger demographic dividend. - The complementarity between primary school attainment and the share of working-age population is statistically significant only for LICs, and not for higher-income countries. ### Estimated impact for Madagascar - Regression framework: marginal impact of raising the share of primary education is given by α3 + α6 log(working_ageit−1). - Demographic projection and implied impact: - Share of working-age population in Madagascar expected to increase from 53 percent in 2023 to 63 percent in 2050. - Regression estimates imply that a 1 percentage point increase in primary education attainment would yield an additional 0.6 percentage point rise in real GDP per capita by 2050. - Current levels and counterfactual: - Current levels of primary school completion among the working-age population: around 20 percent. - At current levels, the rise in share of working-age population in the next two decades would have no significant impact on growth. - If primary school attainment among the working-age population were to meet the SSA average (around 60 percent), the projected 5 percentage points increase in working-age population in Madagascar would raise annual real GDP per capita growth by 4 percentage points. ### Quality of education and its growth effects - Independent of the demographic dividend, improvements in quality of education (measured via LAYS and HCI) have a positive and statistically significant effect on real GDP per capita growth, particularly in lower income countries and SSA. - Estimated effects: - A 1-year increase in LAYS raises economic growth by 7 percentage points among LICs and countries in SSA. - Among LICs, a 0.1 unit increase in HCI raises economic growth by about 0.2 percentage point. - Madagascar baseline: - Madagascar’s LAYS in 2018: 4.7 years. - SSA average LAYS in 2018: 5.1 years. - LICs average LAYS in 2018: 5.5 years. - Raising Madagascar’s LAYS to the SSA average would imply a 2.8 percentage points increase in real GDP per capita growth relative to the baseline. ### Teacher training, qualified teachers, and growth linkage - Estimated impacts from teacher training: - A 10-percentage point increase in the share of qualified teachers in primary school would raise LAYS by about 0.3 years (Text Box 3) among both LICs and countries in SSA. - Combining with Text Box 2 estimate (1-year increase in LAYS → 7 percentage points growth), increasing the share of qualified teachers by 10-percentage points would boost per capita real growth by 2.1 percentage points. - A back-of-the-envelope calculation: doubling the share of trained teachers in primary school (from current level at 15.2 percent to reach about half of the levels seen in SSA and LICs) would raise the LAYS by about 0.4 year and thus boost growth by between 2.5 to 3.1 percentage points in Madagascar. - Regression evidence: - α6 is positive and statistically significant, particularly for the sample of LICs, implying LICs with larger share of working-age population benefit more from being educated. - For non-LICs, the marginal return from a larger share of working-age population is not statistically different from 0, regardless of the level of primary school attainment. - For LICs, the marginal gain from a higher share of working-age population increases with the level of primary school attainment. ### Constraints on teaching quality in Madagascar - Major bottlenecks: - Insufficient number of qualified teachers due to lack of resources dedicated to training. - Non-transparent and non-competitive recruitment process of teachers. - Poor support and supervision of teachers. - Recruitment and qualifications: - 41 percent of civil servant teachers and 64 percent of FRAM teachers surveyed reported they did not participate in a competitive recruitment process (World Bank study). - From 2004 to 2024, FRAM teacher numbers rose from 13,000 to 90,180; FRAM now represent more than 50 percent of teachers in the public education sector. - At primary school level, FRAM teachers (subsidized and unsubsidized) make up 51 percent of teachers; contractual and civil servant teachers hired and paid by the state form 41 percent of the teaching force. - According to the INFP database, over 85 percent of FRAM teachers are not qualified (lack a pedagogical diploma). - Teacher skill levels (survey evidence): - PASEC2019: only 11 percent of Malagasy teachers reach the highest level of the skills scale in reading comprehension and 24 percent in mathematics. - SDI 2021: proportion of teachers with minimum knowledge and skills is 3 percent in French and 8 percent in mathematics. - Supervision and satisfaction: - Just over half of teachers are adequately supervised (PASEC2019). - From PASEC2019: 55 percent of teachers are not satisfied with their salary level; 37 percent complain about irregularity of pay; 24 percent find that professional training opportunities are lacking. - UNICEF 2023 survey: contractual and subsidized FRAM teachers are 14 percentage points less likely to be satisfied and unsubsidized FRAM teachers 24 percentage points less likely to be satisfied with their job compared to civil servant counterparts. ### Education spending, infrastructure, and governance issues - Education spending and execution: - Budget execution rate on resources allocated to decentralized technical, coaching and supervision support to teachers in schools: 47 percent (2019) (PETS 2021). - Infrastructure and basic classroom inputs (SDI 2021 averages): - An average school has access to only 34 percent of the infrastructure essential for learning. - 0.4 percent of schools have access to electricity. - 2 percent have internet. - 8 percent have access to functional and clean toilets. - 50 percent of schools have potable water sources. - 83 percent of schools have blackboards. - 4 percent have enough textbooks. - 23 percent have access to educational technologies. - 16 percent have access to stationery. - 23 percent have access to furniture. - Financial governance and leakages (PETS / UNICEF 2021): - Loss rates in compensation for civil servant teachers: about 11.8 percent (2018) and 8.8 percent (2019). - Loss rates for community teachers: 28.5 percent (2018) and 23.7 percent (2019). - Loss rates for school funds: 19.1 percent (2018) and 18.4 percent (2019). - Teacher absenteeism (proportion providing teaching services in line with paid hours): - Civil servant teachers: 46.4 percent (2018) and 13.4 percent (2019). - Community teachers: 47.8 percent (2018) and 54.3 percent (2019). ### Projected costs to raise qualified-teacher numbers - Enrollment and projection assumptions (Box 5): - Primary school enrollment tripled between 1998 and 2023 and is projected to increase at an annual rate of 3 percent thereafter. - Number of pupils at primary level expected to increase from about 4.2 million in 2023 to about 5.4 million in 2031 at a 3 percent annual rate. - UNICEF estimate to reach standard of 40 students per qualified teacher: total of about MGA 181.7 billion (US$ 40.4 million) needed per year until 2031. - This estimate includes total cost of primary school teacher training at MGA 15.7 million (US$ 3.5 million) per year and cumulative additional salaries at about MGA 71.8 billion (about US$ 16 million). - Box 5 specific assumptions: - Primary school enrollment increasing at an annual rate of 3.02 percent. - Target student to qualified teacher ratio: 40:1, implying 14,500 teachers require continuous training annually and 2000 require initial training at the INFP annually. - Number of civil servants and contract teachers currently in post remains constant (numerical replacements in state budget as retirements occur). - INFP continues production of 2,000 teachers every two years, absorbed into public sector within 12 months. - All qualified teachers from continuing education will be recruited as contractual teachers. - Unit cost of initial training estimated at MGA 600,000 (US$ 133) per teacher-student without teacher salary. - Unit cost of continuous training estimated at MGA 1,000,000 (US$ 222) per teacher. - Given unit training costs and number of teachers to be trained annually, total annual cost of training estimated at around US$ 3.5 million. - Average gross monthly salary estimates: civil servant and contract teachers at MGA 932,000 (US$ 207) and MGA 651,000 (US$ 145) respectively. - UNICEF simulation interpreted as a lower bound of total cost of attaining the 40:1 student to qualified teacher ratio. - Note on alternative estimates: - World Bank estimates initial cost of qualifying a teacher with a high-school certificate would be at least 900 US dollars and even higher for a teacher without a high-school certificate; this is far above the UNICEF estimate of 133 US dollars used in Box 5. ### Policy implications and recommendations (section conclusion pointers) - Increasing primary education attainment amplifies the demographic dividend in LICs and can materially raise real GDP per capita growth, conditional on raising education attainment sufficiently. - Improving education quality (LAYS, HCI) has large estimated payoffs for growth, especially in LICs and SSA. - Expanding and improving the quality of the teacher workforce (raising the share of qualified teachers) is a high-leverage policy to raise LAYS and thereby growth; targeted investments in teacher initial and continuous training, recruitment transparency, supervision, and remuneration are implied priorities. - Addressing weak financial governance, budget execution, infrastructure deficits, and resource leakages are critical to ensure spending translates into improved teacher quality and learning outcomes. *Source: IMF Staff Estimates; content unit from sipea2025027 (Selected Issues Paper PDF).* ### 23. Educational outcomes are declining in Madagascar. Most indicators of the education ### 23. Educational outcomes are declining in Madagascar. Most indicators of the education ### Current outcomes and causes - Most indicators of the education efficiency indicate that the country is undergoing a learning crisis with students lacking the minimum skills needed at the required age, especially in reading and mathematics. - The low quality of education, and thus the decline in skill acquisition, reflect the lack of qualified teachers. - Job satisfaction partly determines teachers' behaviors, the efforts invested in teaching, commitment within the school and the probability of continuing to teach. These elements influence the learning process of students either directly, for example with activities adapted for each student, which require sustained investment from the teacher, or indirectly by facilitating the functioning of the school. ### Economic impact and projections - Empirical evidence has shown that both the quantity and quality of education have sizeable positive effects on growth and may explain the difference in growth performance across countries. - In the case of Madagascar, empirical investigations suggest that, based on the projected growth in working age population, improving primary education could add 0.6 percentage point to economic growth by 2050. - Increasing the number of qualified teachers to the average level among its peers could raise per capita real GDP growth by around 2.5 to 3.1 percentage points in Madagascar. ### Estimated costs (2025–2031) - Total cost of training: - 2025: 3,488,889 - 2026: 3,488,889 - 2027: 3,488,889 - 2028: 3,488,889 - 2029: 3,488,889 - 2030: 3,488,889 - 2031: 3,488,889 - Total additional salary cost: - 2025: 2,551,889 - 2026: 4,609,556 - 2027: 6,996,556 - 2028: 9,094,222 - 2029: 11,481,222 - 2030: 13,578,889 - 2031: 15,965,889 - Total additional cost of reform: - 2025: 6,040,778 - 2026: 8,098,445 - 2027: 10,485,445 - 2028: 12,583,111 - 2029: 14,970,111 - 2030: 17,067,778 - 2031: 19,454,778 ### Policy recommendations and priorities - Increase the number of qualified teachers to improve the quality of education and maximize Madagascar’s growth potential. - Boost the attractiveness of the teaching profession over the longer term through effective human resource policies, including: - increasing the competitiveness of teacher compensation, - improving career progression structures, - alleviating job precarity, - improving medical benefits. - Promote professional development that extends beyond initial teacher training, including alignment of career incentives with professional development goals and follow-up support after initial qualification. - Promote meritocratic selection and effective deployment of teachers to lift teaching standards. - Implement a broader program on education reform recognizing that teacher qualification is only one input; other elements include: - adequate infrastructure, - availability of teaching materials, - school feeding program (in the case of Madagascar). - Address various bottlenecks to quality education to reap the economic gains from the country’s youthful population. ### Key references cited in the content - Angrist, J. 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