## 10.      The cold season, spanning from May to August, is very dry, with almost no rainfall. This

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---

### Climate patterns and observed changes
- Cold season spans May to August and is very dry, with almost no rainfall, exacerbating water scarcity and drought risk.
- ENSO impacts:
  - El Niño (warm phase): drier-than-average conditions in southern Zambia and wetter-than-average conditions in the north during December–February.
  - La Niña (cold phase): reverses the pattern—wetter in the south and drier in the north.
- Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events:
  - In the decades after 2000, the number of such events exceeded 10; in the two prior decades there were fewer than 5.
  - The 2023–2024 El Niño drought: affected over 1 million hectares of cropland and triggered emergency food assistance for nearly 2.3 million households.
- Health impacts: floods exacerbate spread of waterborne diseases like cholera, straining health response systems.

### Projections and risks
- Projected warming for Zambia by 2050: 1.5°C to 3°C (depending on global emissions trajectories).
- Rainfall variability expected to intensify: shorter, more intense rainy seasons and longer dry spells.
- Dry spells documented via consecutive dry day (CDD) indices; CDD defined as consecutive days with daily precipitation below 1 mm.

### Natural disasters and impacts
- Floods and droughts are the most common climate-related disasters; frequency has markedly increased over recent decades.
- Large-scale events (e.g., 2024 drought) can disrupt national food security and overwhelm national capacities, requiring coordinated international support.
- Probabilistic distributions (Fig. 7) show rarer events can affect a wide share of the population.

### Agriculture: exposure, trends, and vulnerabilities
- Agriculture:
  - Average share of GDP in the last decade: 3 percent of GDP.
  - Employment: employs ¼ of the workforce.
  - Predominantly rainfed; maize is the staple crop and dominant production.
- El Niño impacts: often cause a 30–40% drop in crop yields, particularly maize.
- Historical maize productivity (2002–2020):
  - Yields increased from 1.3 metric tons per hectare to 2.1 metric tons per hectare.
  - Area under maize cultivation expanded from 750,000 hectares to 1.7 million hectares.
- Current average maize yields: around 2 metric tons per hectare.
- Global maize yield benchmark: 5.5 metric tons per hectare.
- Irrigation coverage: less than 6 percent of cultivated land.
- Consequences of climate shocks: crop failures, livestock losses, reduced incomes, food insecurity, school dropouts, rural-to-urban migration.

### Recommended agricultural adaptation measures
- Invest in adaptive farming techniques and improved irrigation systems.
- Promote drought- and flood-resistant seed varieties and access to fertilizers.
- Enhance agricultural extension services, targeted subsidies, and access to markets and financial services for smallholders.
- Scale up climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices: conservation agriculture, agroforestry, crop rotation and diversification, integrated soil fertility management.

### Energy sector impacts and resilience needs
- Hydropower reliance: approximately 80% of electricity generated from hydropower (major plants at Lake Kariba and Kafue Gorge).
- 2023–2024 drought impacts:
  - Lake Kariba’s output dropped by 80 percent at its lowest point.
  - Resulted in load-shedding of up to 20 hours per day in urban centers like Lusaka.
- 2015 drought impact: small businesses experienced a 7.3% drop in turnover due to electricity shortages.
- Installed capacity: over 3,650 MW.
- Copper production target and energy implications:
  - Government target of 3 million metric tons annually by 2030—triple current levels—will require significant expansion of capacity.
- Access to electricity: about half of the population has access to electricity.
- Diversification and reforms needed:
  - Independent power producers already contribute almost half of generation capacity.
  - Potential for solar, wind, and biomass; expand off-grid solutions.
  - Institutional reforms: strengthen energy governance, return ZESCO to financial viability via cost-recovery tariffs, attract private investment.

### Land use, forests, and carbon markets
- Forest loss: Zambia has lost approximately 6 percent of its forest area due to wood fuel use and expansion of cultivated land.
- Household energy:
  - Wood fuel (charcoal and firewood) is the primary source of energy for over 90 percent of Zambian households.
- Forest and carbon credit potential:
  - 49 million hectares of forest.
  - Contributes 6 percent of Africa’s and 0.7 percent of global carbon credits.
- Carbon market developments:
  - Green Economy and Climate Change Act (No. 18 of 2024) establishes framework for carbon markets and a national Climate Change Fund (full implementation depends on issuance of a Statutory Instrument).
  - Bilateral agreements in 2024: Sweden supporting carbon market infrastructure; Norway’s Global Emission Reduction Initiative mobilizing private investment.

### Adaptation planning, financing, and institutional capacity
- National Adaptation Plan (NAP) aligns with Vision 2030 and the Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP).
- Estimated NAP/NDC Implementation Framework cost: approximately $17.2 billion between 2023 and 2030.
  - These estimated funding needs are described as "of above 8 percent of 2024 GDP."
- Current budgetary environmental spending: less 0.2 percent of GDP.
- NDC target: 25 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, conditional on external support.
- Implementation challenges:
  - Limited technical capacity, overlapping institutional mandates, weak rural outreach, and heavy reliance on donor financing.
- Institutional milestones:
  - Creation of the Ministry of Green Economy and Environment (MoGEE) in 2021.
  - Passage of the Green Economy and Climate Change Act in 2024.
- Priority sectors in financing needs: energy, agriculture, land use, infrastructure, water, and health.

### Disaster preparedness and risk reduction
- Zambia is strengthening early warning systems and emergency response mechanisms to reduce the impacts of extreme weather events.
- By aligning adaptation with disaster risk reduction (DRR) frameworks, the country aims to lower long-term exposure to climate shocks and build institutional resilience.
- Recommendation highlights:
  - Improve disaster risk management and early warning systems to enhance institutional and community capacity to respond to climate-related hazards.
  - Increase public awareness to strengthen preparedness.

### Forests, charcoal value chain, and sustainable livelihoods
- Zambia’s forests are under threat from unsustainable charcoal production.
- The NAP promotes the use of alternative cooking fuels, such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and electric stoves, to reduce deforestation.
- Reforestation efforts and sustainable forest management practices are being scaled up.
- A key policy priority is the formalization and regulation of the charcoal value chain to reduce illegal logging while improving rural livelihoods.
- Small-scale pilot projects in Eastern Province where farmers are provided solar panels, boreholes and irrigation equipment to engage in sustainable agriculture instead of tree cutting have shown promise and could be scaled up.

### Financing, carbon finance, and Loss and Damage access
- Financing remains a major constraint to implementation.
- Beyond seeking concessional funding and donor support, Zambia is exploring carbon finance opportunities, including establishing a carbon market framework, to trade carbon credits in exchange for resources for adaptation investments.
- Zambia has already reached bilateral agreements (Sweden, Norway).
- Zambia is documenting the adverse impact of climate change to access financing through the Loss and Damage Fund established at COP28 in 2023.

### IMF C-PIMA assessment (2024) — findings and recommendations
- C-PIMA highlights needs for stronger institutional capacity, better coordination, and securing funding.
- In its first C-PIMA conducted in 2024, Zambia performed relatively well compared to peers in integrating climate considerations into public investment management.
- Strengths identified:
  - National and sectoral planning
  - Inter-governmental coordination
  - Disaster risk management
- Weaknesses identified:
  - Project appraisal and selection
  - Tracking and reporting climate-related investments in the budget
- Pillar assessments (of five C-PIMA pillars):
  - Climate-aware planning: medium
  - Coordination across the public sector: medium
  - Risk management: medium
  - Project appraisal and selection: low
  - Budgeting and portfolio management: low
- Specific gaps:
  - Absence of structured climate analysis in investment decisions
  - Lack of a climate budget tagging system, making it difficult to identify and monitor climate-related public spending
  - Lack of centralized guidance on preparing and costing climate-aware investment strategies
- C-PIMA recommendations:
  - Integrate climate analysis into project appraisals to improve infrastructure resilience.
  - Implement climate budget tagging to enable tracking and prioritization of climate-related investments.
  - Expand climate risk analysis within fiscal risk statements to better anticipate vulnerabilities.
  - Strengthen institutional coordination to align all public sector entities, including SOEs, with national climate goals.
  - Establish structured frameworks to incorporate climate risks into PPP contracts and monitor and report climate-related public spending.

### Institutional coordination, SOEs, and public-sector alignment
- Central and local government coordination frameworks are in place, but climate integration across public enterprises remains limited.
- Both the NAP and the NDC provide guidance for coordinating climate spending at sub-national levels, but these do not apply to state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
- SOEs are not required to report GHG emissions or integrate climate objectives in their investment plans.
- Given SOEs’ prominence in energy, mining, transport, and infrastructure, ensuring SOE alignment with national climate goals is essential.

### Climate risks in long-term infrastructure and PPPs
- Climate risks embedded in long-term infrastructure investments are not systematically addressed.
- The adaptation strategy will need to evolve alongside increasing climate uncertainty, particularly as the country seeks to attract PPPs in climate-exposed sectors such as hydropower and roads.
- C-PIMA underscores the need for:
  - Structured frameworks to incorporate climate risks into PPP contracts.
  - Clear systems to monitor and report climate-related public spending to improve transparency and accountability.

### Fiscal resilience, buffers, and risk quantification
- Building buffers and quantifying risks are key to strengthening fiscal resilience.
- Although Zambia’s annual budget includes contingency provisions for climate-related shocks, allocations have been insufficient to meet the costs of natural disasters.
- Recommendations:
  - Expand coverage of climate risks in the Fiscal Risk Statement.
  - Promote insurance schemes in vulnerable sectors to help manage and share risks more effectively.
  - Create fiscal buffers to better absorb economic shocks caused by climate change.
  - Enhance general revenue mobilization, including through the use of environmental taxes to generate resources and incentivize greener behavior.
  - Attract a balanced mix of private and public funding to finance climate adaptation priorities.

### Sector-specific adaptation priorities and concluding messages
- Agriculture:
  - Promote drought and flood resistant seeds, crop diversification, and expanding irrigation to reduce vulnerability to erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells.
- Energy:
  - Diversify electricity generation toward renewable sources and promote alternative household fuels to combat deforestation.
- Disaster management:
  - Improve disaster risk management and early warning systems, and enhance institutional and community response capacities.
- Institutional reforms and planning:
  - Embed adaptation into national vision and planning systems.
  - Ensure consistency between national development objectives and sectoral strategies across all levels of government and the wider public sector.
  - Integrate climate considerations into public investment management processes and include mechanisms to track budgetary spending on climate adaptation.
- Overall conclusion:
  - The intensification of climate risks demands action to protect lives, build resilience, and sustain economic development.
  - With the right mix of policies, investments, and support from international partners, Zambia can turn the climate challenge into an opportunity.
  - International support, especially through climate finance and technology transfer, will be essential to bridge resource gaps.

*Source: IMF staff summary of the content unit sipea2025127 (selected issues paper).*

### 10.      The cold season, spanning from May to August, is very dry, with almost no rainfall. This

### sipea2025127 - 10.      The cold season, spanning from May to August, is very dry, with almost no rainfall. This

### Climate patterns and observed changes
- Cold season spans May to August and is very dry, with almost no rainfall, exacerbating water scarcity and drought risk.
- ENSO impacts:
  - El Niño (warm phase): drier-than-average conditions in southern Zambia and wetter-than-average conditions in the north during December–February.
  - La Niña (cold phase): reverses the pattern—wetter in the south and drier in the north.
- Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events:
  - In the decades after 2000, the number of such events exceeded 10; in the two prior decades there were fewer than 5.
  - The 2023–2024 El Niño drought: affected over 1 million hectares of cropland and triggered emergency food assistance for nearly 2.3 million households.
- Health impacts: floods exacerbate spread of waterborne diseases like cholera, straining health response systems.

### Projections and risks
- Projected warming for Zambia by 2050: 1.5°C to 3°C (depending on global emissions trajectories).
- Rainfall variability expected to intensify: shorter, more intense rainy seasons and longer dry spells.
- Dry spells documented via consecutive dry day (CDD) indices; CDD defined as consecutive days with daily precipitation below 1 mm.

### Natural disasters and impacts
- Floods and droughts are the most common climate-related disasters; frequency has markedly increased over recent decades.
- Large-scale events (e.g., 2024 drought) can disrupt national food security and overwhelm national capacities, requiring coordinated international support.
- Probabilistic distributions (Fig. 7) show rarer events can affect a wide share of the population.

### Agriculture: exposure, trends, and vulnerabilities
- Agriculture:
  - Average share of GDP in the last decade: 3 percent of GDP.
  - Employment: employs ¼ of the workforce.
  - Predominantly rainfed; maize is the staple crop and dominant production.
- El Niño impacts: often cause a 30–40% drop in crop yields, particularly maize.
- Historical maize productivity (2002–2020):
  - Yields increased from 1.3 metric tons per hectare to 2.1 metric tons per hectare.
  - Area under maize cultivation expanded from 750,000 hectares to 1.7 million hectares.
- Current average maize yields: around 2 metric tons per hectare.
- Global maize yield benchmark: 5.5 metric tons per hectare.
- Irrigation coverage: less than 6 percent of cultivated land.
- Consequences of climate shocks: crop failures, livestock losses, reduced incomes, food insecurity, school dropouts, rural-to-urban migration.

### Recommended agricultural adaptation measures
- Invest in adaptive farming techniques and improved irrigation systems.
- Promote drought- and flood-resistant seed varieties and access to fertilizers.
- Enhance agricultural extension services, targeted subsidies, and access to markets and financial services for smallholders.
- Scale up climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices: conservation agriculture, agroforestry, crop rotation and diversification, integrated soil fertility management.

### Energy sector impacts and resilience needs
- Hydropower reliance: approximately 80% of electricity generated from hydropower (major plants at Lake Kariba and Kafue Gorge).
- 2023–2024 drought impacts:
  - Lake Kariba’s output dropped by 80 percent at its lowest point.
  - Resulted in load-shedding of up to 20 hours per day in urban centers like Lusaka.
- 2015 drought impact: small businesses experienced a 7.3% drop in turnover due to electricity shortages.
- Installed capacity: over 3,650 MW.
- Copper production target and energy implications:
  - Government target of 3 million metric tons annually by 2030—triple current levels—will require significant expansion of capacity.
- Access to electricity: about half of the population has access to electricity.
- Diversification and reforms needed:
  - Independent power producers already contribute almost half of generation capacity.
  - Potential for solar, wind, and biomass; expand off-grid solutions.
  - Institutional reforms: strengthen energy governance, return ZESCO to financial viability via cost-recovery tariffs, attract private investment.

### Land use, forests, and carbon markets
- Forest loss: Zambia has lost approximately 6 percent of its forest area due to wood fuel use and expansion of cultivated land.
- Household energy:
  - Wood fuel (charcoal and firewood) is the primary source of energy for over 90 percent of Zambian households.
- Forest and carbon credit potential:
  - 49 million hectares of forest.
  - Contributes 6 percent of Africa’s and 0.7 percent of global carbon credits.
- Carbon market developments:
  - Green Economy and Climate Change Act (No. 18 of 2024) establishes framework for carbon markets and a national Climate Change Fund (full implementation depends on issuance of a Statutory Instrument).
  - Bilateral agreements in 2024: Sweden supporting carbon market infrastructure; Norway’s Global Emission Reduction Initiative mobilizing private investment.

### Adaptation planning, financing, and institutional capacity
- National Adaptation Plan (NAP) aligns with Vision 2030 and the Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP).
- Estimated NAP/NDC Implementation Framework cost: approximately $17.2 billion between 2023 and 2030.
  - These estimated funding needs are described as "of above 8 percent of 2024 GDP."
- Current budgetary environmental spending: less 0.2 percent of GDP.
- NDC target: 25 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, conditional on external support.
- Implementation challenges:
  - Limited technical capacity, overlapping institutional mandates, weak rural outreach, and heavy reliance on donor financing.
- Institutional milestones:
  - Creation of the Ministry of Green Economy and Environment (MoGEE) in 2021.
  - Passage of the Green Economy and Climate Change Act in 2024.
- Priority sectors in financing needs: energy, agriculture, land use, infrastructure, water, and health.

### International experience and policy options
- Suggested models and lessons:
  - Rwanda: integration of climate adaptation into national budgeting via Green Fund (FONERWA).
  - The Gambia: "Aid for Trade" to mobilize climate finance via trade policy.
  - Kenya: climate-smart agriculture combined with crop insurance, drought-resistant seeds, and resilient water infrastructure.
  - Ethiopia: Productive Safety Net linking social protection to natural resource management.
  - Morocco: National Climate Commission for centralized planning and coordination.
- Key policy priorities:
  - Strengthen community-level preparedness and early warning systems.
  - Enhance meteorological forecasting capacity.
  - Mainstream climate risk into development planning.
  - Deepen regulatory frameworks for carbon markets, attract private investment, and build institutional capacity.

### Risk assessment
- Climate-driven INFORM Risk Index (adapted by IMF staff) places Zambia in the second-highest global quintile for climate-driven disaster risk.
  - The index incorporates hazard and exposure, vulnerability, and lack of coping capacity.

*Source: IMF staff summary of the content unit sipea2025127 (selected issues paper).*

### 27.      Disaster preparedness is another critical pillar. Zambia is strengthening early warning

### 27.      Disaster preparedness is another critical pillar. Zambia is strengthening early warning

### Disaster preparedness and risk reduction
- Zambia is strengthening early warning systems and emergency response mechanisms to reduce the impacts of extreme weather events.
- By aligning adaptation with disaster risk reduction (DRR) frameworks, the country aims to lower long-term exposure to climate shocks and build institutional resilience.
- Recommendation highlights:
  - Improve disaster risk management and early warning systems to enhance institutional and community capacity to respond to climate-related hazards.
  - Increase public awareness to strengthen preparedness.

### Energy sector adaptation and diversification
- Zambia is seeking to reduce its dependence on hydropower, which is increasingly vulnerable to drought.
- The adaptation agenda calls for accelerated investment in solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources, with an emphasis on decentralized, off-grid solutions to support rural communities.
- Diversifying the energy mix is essential for building a more climate-resilient power system and reducing disruptions linked to water scarcity.
- Sector recommendation:
  - Diversify electricity generation toward renewable sources and promote alternative fuels for household heating to reduce dependence on charcoal and firewood.

### Forests, charcoal value chain, and sustainable livelihoods
- Zambia’s forests are under threat from unsustainable charcoal production.
- The NAP promotes the use of alternative cooking fuels, such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and electric stoves, to reduce deforestation.
- Reforestation efforts and sustainable forest management practices are being scaled up.
- A key policy priority is the formalization and regulation of the charcoal value chain to reduce illegal logging while improving rural livelihoods.
- Small-scale pilot projects in Eastern Province where farmers are provided solar panels, boreholes and irrigation equipment to engage in sustainable agriculture instead of tree cutting have shown promise and could be scaled up.

### Financing, carbon finance, and Loss and Damage access
- Financing remains a major constraint to implementation.
- Beyond seeking concessional funding and donor support, Zambia is exploring carbon finance opportunities, including establishing a carbon market framework, to trade carbon credits in exchange for resources for adaptation investments.
- Zambia has already reached bilateral agreements (Sweden, Norway).
- Zambia is documenting the adverse impact of climate change to access financing through the Loss and Damage Fund established at COP28 in 2023.

### IMF C-PIMA assessment (2024) — findings and recommendations
- The IMF’s Climate Public Investment Management Assessment (C-PIMA) highlights needs for stronger institutional capacity, better coordination, and securing funding.
- In its first C-PIMA conducted in 2024, Zambia performed relatively well compared to peers in integrating climate considerations into public investment management.
- Strengths identified:
  - National and sectoral planning
  - Inter-governmental coordination
  - Disaster risk management
- Weaknesses identified:
  - Project appraisal and selection
  - Tracking and reporting climate-related investments in the budget
- Pillar assessments (of five C-PIMA pillars):
  - Climate-aware planning: medium
  - Coordination across the public sector: medium
  - Risk management: medium
  - Project appraisal and selection: low
  - Budgeting and portfolio management: low
- Specific gaps:
  - Absence of structured climate analysis in investment decisions
  - Lack of a climate budget tagging system, making it difficult to identify and monitor climate-related public spending
  - Lack of centralized guidance on preparing and costing climate-aware investment strategies
- C-PIMA recommendations:
  - Integrate climate analysis into project appraisals to improve infrastructure resilience.
  - Implement climate budget tagging to enable tracking and prioritization of climate-related investments.
  - Expand climate risk analysis within fiscal risk statements to better anticipate vulnerabilities.
  - Strengthen institutional coordination to align all public sector entities, including SOEs, with national climate goals.
  - Establish structured frameworks to incorporate climate risks into PPP contracts and monitor and report climate-related public spending.

### Institutional coordination, SOEs, and public-sector alignment
- Central and local government coordination frameworks are in place, but climate integration across public enterprises remains limited.
- Both the NAP and the NDC provide guidance for coordinating climate spending at sub-national levels, but these do not apply to state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
- SOEs are not required to report GHG emissions or integrate climate objectives in their investment plans.
- Given SOEs’ prominence in energy, mining, transport, and infrastructure, ensuring SOE alignment with national climate goals is essential.

### Climate risks in long-term infrastructure and PPPs
- Climate risks embedded in long-term infrastructure investments are not systematically addressed.
- The adaptation strategy will need to evolve alongside increasing climate uncertainty, particularly as the country seeks to attract PPPs in climate-exposed sectors such as hydropower and roads.
- C-PIMA underscores the need for:
  - Structured frameworks to incorporate climate risks into PPP contracts.
  - Clear systems to monitor and report climate-related public spending to improve transparency and accountability.

### Fiscal resilience, buffers, and risk quantification
- Building buffers and quantifying risks are key to strengthening fiscal resilience.
- Although Zambia’s annual budget includes contingency provisions for climate-related shocks, allocations have been insufficient to meet the costs of natural disasters.
- Recommendations:
  - Expand coverage of climate risks in the Fiscal Risk Statement.
  - Promote insurance schemes in vulnerable sectors to help manage and share risks more effectively.
  - Create fiscal buffers to better absorb economic shocks caused by climate change.
  - Enhance general revenue mobilization, including through the use of environmental taxes to generate resources and incentivize greener behavior.
  - Attract a balanced mix of private and public funding to finance climate adaptation priorities.

### Sector-specific adaptation priorities and concluding messages
- Agriculture:
  - Promote drought and flood resistant seeds, crop diversification, and expanding irrigation to reduce vulnerability to erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells.
- Energy:
  - Diversify electricity generation toward renewable sources and promote alternative household fuels to combat deforestation.
- Disaster management:
  - Improve disaster risk management and early warning systems, and enhance institutional and community response capacities.
- Institutional reforms and planning:
  - Embed adaptation into national vision and planning systems.
  - Ensure consistency between national development objectives and sectoral strategies across all levels of government and the wider public sector.
  - Integrate climate considerations into public investment management processes and include mechanisms to track budgetary spending on climate adaptation.
- Overall conclusion:
  - The intensification of climate risks demands action to protect lives, build resilience, and sustain economic development.
  - With the right mix of policies, investments, and support from international partners, Zambia can turn the climate challenge into an opportunity.
  - International support, especially through climate finance and technology transfer, will be essential to bridge resource gaps.

*Source: International Monetary Fund*

---


_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2025/english/sipea2025127.pdf_