## 1. Impacts of Potential Demographics Changes

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### Key findings — demographics
- Aruba experienced a slow and steady decline in fertility rates, particularly since 2017; the birth rate reached a historic low of 759 in 2024.
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR) time-series excerpts:
  - 1950: 5.83 children per woman
  - 1960: 4.57
  - 1970: 2.97
  - 1980: 2.20
  - 1990: 2.35
  - 2000: 1.85
  - 2010: 1.86
  - 2020: 1.66
  - currently: 1.60
- Births per 1,000 women (selected years): 1972: 20.69; 1980: 18.78; 1990: 18.17; 2000: 14.26; 2010: 11.94; currently: 7.59.
- Population aging:
  - Share aged 65+ increased from approximately 7 percent in 1990 to over 19 percent by end-2024.
  - Median population age increased from 23.9 years in 1960 to 42 years in 2020.
  - Proportion of women increased from 51 percent to 53 percent over 1960-2024.
- Foreign-born population and migration:
  - As of end-December 2024, 39.5 percent of Aruba’s population was foreign-born.
  - Foreign-born women represented approximately 56 percent of the migrant population (2024).
  - Composition of foreign-born (2024): Venezuela 19.7 percent, Colombia 19.6 percent, the Netherlands 14.6 percent.
  - By end-2024, 22 percent of inward migrants either returned to Aruba or came from other Dutch Caribbean islands.
  - In the past decade, an average of around 3,000 Arubans emigrated each year; emigrants born in Aruba or the former Netherlands Antilles accounted for 53.5 percent of all de-registrations in 2024.
- Historical population growth:
  - Aruba’s population nearly doubled since 1960, with most growth before 2010.
  - 1989–1993: average growth rates over 5 percent.
  - Population increased by nearly 40 percent from 1990 to 2000.
  - Growth slowed to 13 percent in the early 2000s and 7.8 percent in the 2010s.
  - Since the pandemic, population growth has stagnated.

### Dependency ratios and projections
- Definitions:
  - Total dependency ratio = old dependency ratio (65+/15-64) + child dependency ratio (0-14/15-64).
- Recent levels:
  - Total dependency ratio hit a low of 42.8 in 1997, stayed at 43-45 percent until mid-2010s, began rising in 2016, and surpassed 50 percent in 2021.
  - Old-age dependency ratio rose from 10.6 in 2000 to a record high of 28.9 in 2024.
  - Child dependency ratio declined from 33.3 in 2010 to a historic low of 22.9 (recent).
- UN population scenarios (summary):
  - UN baseline (median fertility) projects Aruba’s population will peak in the coming years then decline; under baseline, a potential population decrease of 11 percent by 2100.
  - UN low fertility scenario predicts a decline of 36 percent by 2100.
  - Only the UN high fertility scenario shows population growth through the century’s end.
  - High (low) scenario: total fertility will reach 0.5 births above (below) the medium-term scenario; mortality and migration assumptions are the same across scenarios.
- Dependency ratio projections under UN baseline:
  - Total dependency ratio projected to reach 60 percent around 2030.
  - 70 percent by 2038.
  - 80 percent by 2053.
  - Surpass 100 percent around 2077.

### Stylized facts — labor market
- Labor force participation (LFP):
  - 1960 to 2000: total LFP rose from 55.0 to 65.4 percent, driven by a sharp rise in female LFP.
  - Since 2000: male and female LFP moved in parallel; gender gap around 9 percent in 2023.
  - Mean child-birth age increased from 27.8 to 29.1 years over 2014-23.
- Unemployment rate (UR):
  - UR declined from 1960 to 1991, then fluctuated around 7.5 percent.
  - Recent UR values: 4.3 percent in 2022; 4.0 percent in 2023; 4.3 percent in 2024.
  - Gender gap in UR narrowed through 2010 and oscillates around zero recently.
- Employment rate (ER) and inactivity:
  - ER increased from 1972 to 2000 (driven by female ER); slight decline in 2000-2018; peaked in 2019; fell during pandemic; recovering since 2021.
  - ER gender gap remains over 9 percent.
  - Inactivity rate: 39.3 percent in 2022; 37.2 percent in 2023 — still above pre-pandemic levels.
- Youth labor market:
  - Youth LFP (15-24) increased to 40.2 percent in 2023 from 35.0 percent in 2022.
  - NEET rate (2023): 7.8 percent; 2019: 10.7 percent; 2022: 7.4 percent.
  - Youth UR: 9.9 percent in 2022; 11.1 percent in 2023; pandemic peak was 25.9 percent in 2020.
  - Top reasons for increase in youth UR: recent entry to job market (25 percent), inability to work full-time (13 percent), inability to find a job (10 percent), lack of required diplomas (6 percent).
  - Top employment sectors for youth: accommodation and food; trade and repairs; administrative support; transport and storage; construction.
  - Top occupations for youth: entry-level; clerical support; service and sales.
- Employment status and gender:
  - Inactivity rates consistently higher for females across all age groups.
  - Over 2015-2019: male inactivity averaged 32.2 percent; female inactivity 40.8 percent.
  - 2020 pandemic peak inactivity: men 40.9 percent; women 48.0 percent.
  - By 2022: inactivity decreased to 36.5 percent (men) and 43.3 percent (women).
  - Highest inactivity observed among youth (education) and elderly (starting at age 60).
  - Female inactivity notably higher for ages 35-44 and 50-59.
  - Average age of child-bearing women increased from 27.4 to 29.5 over 2010-24; about a fifth of women give birth at 35 or older.

### Analysis — economic implications
- Demographic shifts signal an end to Aruba’s “demographic dividend” unless population growth is restored.
- Aging population increases pressure on healthcare and elderly services and raises the burden on the working-age population.
- Declining fertility and lower inward migration are primary drivers of slowed population growth and will constrain labor force expansion absent offsetting policy or migration changes.
- Immigration currently fills vacancies in the growing tourism sector, while emigration (including brain drain) removes young skilled workers.

### Policy considerations and implications discussed
- Reversing low fertility is noted as difficult and potentially expensive; UN baseline and academic literature cited suggest pro-natal policy effectiveness is limited and costly.
- Policy focus implied by analysis:
  - Measure to increase labor force participation (LFP), especially among women and ages with high inactivity.
  - Policies to reduce bottlenecks on growth by addressing healthcare and social protection needs arising from aging.
  - Migration policies to manage inward migration and mitigate brain drain.
  - Labor market and training policies to reduce youth unemployment and NEET rates and address diploma mismatches.

### Labor market composition by gender and occupation (2023 LFS)
- Gender and occupation patterns:
  - Men dominate as managers; women predominate in professional and hospitality roles.
- Top industries (by share of employment):
  - “Trade and repairs” is the second largest employer for both genders.
  - For men: construction is a leading employer after trade and repairs.
  - For women: “health and social work” follows trade and repairs.
- Occupations:
  - Service and sales occupations comprise almost a third of female employment and over a fifth of male employment.
  - Elementary occupations rank second for both genders.
  - Craft trades are prominent among men.
- Employment in hospitality shows marked gender and age variation (figures presented in source charts).

### Formal sector wages and gender gaps
- 2024 monthly minimum wages:
  - General employees: 1109.61 USD (about 55 percent of average wage).
  - Domestic workers: 517.68 USD (around 25 percent of average wage).
- 2024q3 average formal-sector salaries (Social Security-SvB):
  - Men: 2,623 USD per month.
  - Women: 2,171 USD per month.
  - Implied overall wage gap: about 17 percent.
- Sectoral observations:
  - Education, IT, electricity and gas: wage gap over 30 percent.
  - Real estate, professional, administrative services: best wage parity.
  - Best-paying sectors: public administration, finance and insurance, utilities, health and social services.

### Population projections and demographic scenarios
- Projection framework:
  - Use UN World Population Prospects scenarios differing by fertility, mortality, and net migration.
- Scenario peaks (summary):
  - “No change”: total population peaks in 2028; working-age peaks in 2031 (declines begin 2029 and 2032 respectively).
  - “Zero net migration”: peaks in 2030 (total) and 2034 (working age).
  - “Low” fertility: total population peaks in 2028; working age peaks in 2034.
  - “Medium” fertility: total peaks in 2031; working age peaks in 2034.
  - “High” fertility: continued total population growth, working-age population peaks in 2034 and begins to decline between 2035-38 (trend reversal in 2039 as those born in 2024 enter labor force).
- Qualitative comparison:
  - “No change” yields slightly higher total and working-age populations through 2029 versus “zero migration,” but “zero migration” dominates from 2030 onward due to modestly positive net migration in that scenario.
  - Constant fertility and mortality at 2024 levels would lead to fast population declines.

### Baseline labor market projections (medium fertility scenario) and labor force assumptions
- Assumptions:
  - Use “medium fertility” population scenario.
  - No policy changes; keep LFP rates at 2023 levels by gender.
  - Apply UR consistent with macro framework.
- Baseline LFP and gap:
  - Male LFP (2024 level assumed): 68.3 percent.
  - Female LFP (2024 level assumed): 59.3 percent.
  - Gender LFP gap: 9.0 percent.
  - Overall LFP: 63.5 percent.
- Baseline employment projection (2024-2030):
  - Total employed increases by 1304 persons (679 males and 625 females) or 2.3 percent (2.4 percent for males and 2.2 percent for females).
  - Employment growth slowly declines and becomes flat by 2030.

### Counterfactual LFP scenarios and employment impacts
- Scenario A — Increase female LFP to 62 percent by 2030 (reduce gender gap by 30 percent):
  - Required pace: about 0.45 percentage point increase per annum in female LFP.
  - Additional female employment (over 2025-2030, on top of baseline): 4.8 percent or 1295 persons.
  - Total employment gain (2024-2030): 2599 persons or 4.7 percent.
  - Male employment and female employment growth: 2.4 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively.
- Scenario B — Raise male LFP by 0.3 percent per annum to 70.1 percent by 2030:
  - Increase in male employment relative to baseline (2024-2030): 754 persons or 2.7 percentage points.
  - Total employed growth (2024-2030): 2058 persons or 3.7 percent.
  - Male and female employment growth: 5.1 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively.
- Scenario C — Combine female and male LFP increases:
  - Overall LFP reaches 65.8 percent; gender gap shrinks to 8.1 percent.
  - Total employment increase over 2024-2030 (additional relative to baseline): 2728 people, or 2.7 percentage points.
  - Total employment gain (2024-2030): 2728 persons or 6.0 percent.
  - Male and female employment growth: 5.1 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively.

### Impact on output (GDP) from higher LFP
- Baseline contribution of labor to GDP growth: about 0.4 percent.
- Medium-term GDP effects assuming baseline capital and TFP projections:
  - Increasing male LFP: additional 0.14 percentage points of GDP growth relative to baseline.
  - Increasing female LFP: additional 0.24 percent of GDP growth.
  - Combined scenario: additional 0.38 percentage points of GDP by 2030.

### Policy options and recommendations
- Macro and demographic context:
  - Falling fertility and aging population reduce the ratio of workers to dependents, likely lowering future growth and stressing health and social insurance systems.
- Labor supply and labor-market-friction policies:
  - Expand access to formal labor markets via integrated approaches and deepen active labor market policies.
  - Establish an online job database; provide job search assistance (CV advice, interview preparation), vocational training and internship programs; create a center for personalized job matching services; offer digital skills training.
  - Provide vocational training or other short-cycle programs to address skill mismatches for youth and integrate inactive and unemployed into the labor force.
  - Invest in retraining and reskilling with emphasis on digital skills, entrepreneurship competencies, and financial education in the national education system.
  - Promote youth and female entrepreneurship.
  - Offer flexible work options backed by unemployment insurance to enhance the business and investment climate.
  - Implement programs encouraging older workers to remain in or re-enter the workforce.
- Policies to increase female LFP:
  - Improve availability and affordability of childcare and elderly care within fiscal-rule limits.
  - Mitigate asymmetries in parental benefits and consider more flexible parental leave.
  - Encourage women into STEM careers to raise returns to education and female labor market profitability.
  - Use school curriculum and job centers to promote female entrepreneurship and financial literacy.
- Migrant integration:
  - Allow young, skilled immigrants to fill vacancies to raise social security and healthcare contributions.
  - Continue formalization of undocumented migrants.
  - Consider social insurance measures for migrants/returning Arubans (e.g., right to repurchase lost years between ages 15 and pension age or require a minimum of paid taxes for program eligibility).

*Source: sipea2025156 - 1. Impacts of Potential Demographics Changes*

### 1. Impacts of Potential Demographics Changes .........................................................................14

### 1. Impacts of Potential Demographics Changes

### Key findings — demographics
- Aruba experienced a slow and steady decline in fertility rates, particularly since 2017; the birth rate reached a historic low of 759 in 2024.
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR) time-series excerpts:
  - 1950: 5.83 children per woman
  - 1960: 4.57
  - 1970: 2.97
  - 1980: 2.20
  - 1990: 2.35
  - 2000: 1.85
  - 2010: 1.86
  - 2020: 1.66
  - currently: 1.60
- Births per 1,000 women (selected years): 1972: 20.69; 1980: 18.78; 1990: 18.17; 2000: 14.26; 2010: 11.94; currently: 7.59.
- Population aging:
  - Share aged 65+ increased from approximately 7 percent in 1990 to over 19 percent by end-2024.
  - Median population age increased from 23.9 years in 1960 to 42 years in 2020.
  - Proportion of women increased from 51 percent to 53 percent over 1960-2024.
- Foreign-born population and migration:
  - As of end-December 2024, 39.5 percent of Aruba’s population was foreign-born.
  - Foreign-born women represented approximately 56 percent of the migrant population (2024).
  - Composition of foreign-born (2024): Venezuela 19.7 percent, Colombia 19.6 percent, the Netherlands 14.6 percent.
  - By end-2024, 22 percent of inward migrants either returned to Aruba or came from other Dutch Caribbean islands.
  - In the past decade, an average of around 3,000 Arubans emigrated each year; emigrants born in Aruba or the former Netherlands Antilles accounted for 53.5 percent of all de-registrations in 2024.
- Historical population growth:
  - Aruba’s population nearly doubled since 1960, with most growth before 2010.
  - 1989–1993: average growth rates over 5 percent.
  - Population increased by nearly 40 percent from 1990 to 2000.
  - Growth slowed to 13 percent in the early 2000s and 7.8 percent in the 2010s.
  - Since the pandemic, population growth has stagnated.

### Dependency ratios and projections
- Definitions:
  - Total dependency ratio = old dependency ratio (65+/15-64) + child dependency ratio (0-14/15-64).
- Recent levels:
  - Total dependency ratio hit a low of 42.8 in 1997, stayed at 43-45 percent until mid-2010s, began rising in 2016, and surpassed 50 percent in 2021.
  - Old-age dependency ratio rose from 10.6 in 2000 to a record high of 28.9 in 2024.
  - Child dependency ratio declined from 33.3 in 2010 to a historic low of 22.9 (year implied as recent).
- UN population scenarios (summary):
  - UN baseline (median fertility) projects Aruba’s population will peak in the coming years then decline; under baseline, a potential population decrease of 11 percent by 2100.
  - UN low fertility scenario predicts a decline of 36 percent by 2100.
  - Only the UN high fertility scenario shows population growth through the century’s end.
  - High (low) scenario: total fertility will reach 0.5 births above (below) the medium-term scenario; mortality and migration assumptions are the same across scenarios.
- Dependency ratio projections under UN baseline:
  - Total dependency ratio projected to reach 60 percent around 2030.
  - 70 percent by 2038.
  - 80 percent by 2053.
  - Surpass 100 percent around 2077.

### Stylized facts — labor market
- Labor force participation (LFP):
  - 1960 to 2000: total LFP rose from 55.0 to 65.4 percent, driven by a sharp rise in female LFP.
  - Since 2000: male and female LFP moved in parallel; gender gap around 9 percent in 2023.
  - Mean child-birth age increased from 27.8 to 29.1 years over 2014-23.
- Unemployment rate (UR):
  - UR declined from 1960 to 1991, then fluctuated around 7.5 percent.
  - Recent UR values: 4.3 percent in 2022; 4.0 percent in 2023; 4.3 percent in 2024.
  - Gender gap in UR narrowed through 2010 and oscillates around zero recently.
- Employment rate (ER) and inactivity:
  - ER increased from 1972 to 2000 (driven by female ER); slight decline in 2000-2018; peaked in 2019; fell during pandemic; recovering since 2021.
  - ER gender gap remains over 9 percent.
  - Inactivity rate: 39.3 percent in 2022; 37.2 percent in 2023 — still above pre-pandemic levels.
- Youth labor market:
  - Youth LFP (15-24) increased to 40.2 percent in 2023 from 35.0 percent in 2022.
  - NEET rate (2023): 7.8 percent; 2019: 10.7 percent; 2022: 7.4 percent.
  - Youth UR: 9.9 percent in 2022; 11.1 percent in 2023; pandemic peak was 25.9 percent in 2020.
  - Top reasons for increase in youth UR: recent entry to job market (25 percent), inability to work full-time (13 percent), inability to find a job (10 percent), lack of required diplomas (6 percent).
  - Top employment sectors for youth: accommodation and food; trade and repairs; administrative support; transport and storage; construction.
  - Top occupations for youth: entry-level; clerical support; service and sales.
- Employment status and gender:
  - Inactivity rates consistently higher for females across all age groups.
  - Over 2015-2019: male inactivity averaged 32.2 percent; female inactivity 40.8 percent.
  - 2020 pandemic peak inactivity: men 40.9 percent; women 48.0 percent.
  - By 2022: inactivity decreased to 36.5 percent (men) and 43.3 percent (women).
  - Highest inactivity observed among youth (education) and elderly (starting at age 60).
  - Female inactivity notably higher for ages 35-44 and 50-59.
  - Average age of child-bearing women increased from 27.4 to 29.5 over 2010-24; about a fifth of women give birth at 35 or older.

### Analysis — economic implications
- Demographic shifts signal an end to Aruba’s “demographic dividend” unless population growth is restored.
- Aging population increases pressure on healthcare and elderly services and raises the burden on the working-age population.
- Declining fertility and lower inward migration are primary drivers of slowed population growth and will constrain labor force expansion absent offsetting policy or migration changes.
- Immigration currently fills vacancies in the growing tourism sector, while emigration (including brain drain) removes young skilled workers.

### Policy considerations and implications discussed
- Reversing low fertility is noted as difficult and potentially expensive; UN baseline and academic literature cited suggest pro-natal policy effectiveness is limited and costly.
- Policy focus implied by analysis:
  - Measure to increase labor force participation (LFP), especially among women and ages with high inactivity.
  - Policies to reduce bottlenecks on growth by addressing healthcare and social protection needs arising from aging.
  - Migration policies to manage inward migration and mitigate brain drain.
  - Labor market and training policies to reduce youth unemployment and NEET rates and address diploma mismatches.

*Source: sipea2025156 - 1. Impacts of Potential Demographics Changes*

### 13.      The 2023 Labor Force Survey (LFS) reveals major economic sectors and occupations. Men

### 13.      The 2023 Labor Force Survey (LFS) reveals major economic sectors and occupations. Men

### Labor market composition by gender and occupation
- Men dominate as managers; women predominate in professional and hospitality roles.
- Top industries (by share of employment):
  - “Trade and repairs” is the second largest employer for both genders.
  - For men: construction is a leading employer after trade and repairs.
  - For women: “health and social work” follows trade and repairs.
- Occupations:
  - Service and sales occupations comprise almost a third of female employment and over a fifth of male employment.
  - Elementary occupations rank second for both genders.
  - Craft trades are prominent among men.
- Employment distribution highlights (as reported):
  - Employment in hospitality shows marked gender and age variation (figures presented in source charts).

### Formal sector wages and gender gaps
- 2024 monthly minimum wages:
  - General employees: 1109.61 USD (about 55 percent of average wage).
  - Domestic workers: 517.68 USD (around 25 percent of average wage).
- 2024q3 average formal-sector salaries (Social Security-SvB):
  - Men: 2,623 USD per month.
  - Women: 2,171 USD per month.
  - Implied overall wage gap: about 17 percent.
- Sectoral wage-gap and parity observations:
  - Education, IT, electricity and gas: wage gap over 30 percent.
  - Real estate, professional, administrative services: best wage parity.
  - Best-paying sectors: public administration, finance and insurance, utilities, health and social services.

### Population projections and demographic scenarios
- Population projections use UN World Population Prospects scenarios differing by fertility, mortality, and net migration.
- Scenario peaks for total and working-age populations (summary from Table 1 and text):
  - “No change”: total population peaks in 2028; working-age peaks in 2031 (declines begin 2029 and 2032 respectively).
  - “Zero net migration”: peaks in 2030 (total) and 2034 (working age).
  - “Low” fertility: total population peaks in 2028; working age peaks in 2034.
  - “Medium” fertility: total peaks in 2031; working age peaks in 2034.
  - “High” fertility: continued total population growth, working-age population peaks in 2034 and begins to decline between 2035-38 (trend reversal in 2039 as those born in 2024 enter labor force).
- Qualitative comparison:
  - “No change” yields slightly higher total and working-age populations through 2029 versus “zero migration,” but “zero migration” dominates from 2030 onward due to modestly positive net migration in that scenario.
  - Constant fertility and mortality at 2024 levels would lead to fast population declines.

### Baseline labor market projections (medium fertility scenario) and labor force assumptions
- Assumptions:
  - Use “medium fertility” population scenario.
  - No policy changes; keep LFP rates at 2023 levels by gender.
  - Apply UR consistent with macro framework.
- Baseline LFP and gap:
  - Male LFP (2024 level assumed): 68.3 percent.
  - Female LFP (2024 level assumed): 59.3 percent.
  - Gender LFP gap: 9.0 percent.
  - Overall LFP: 63.5 percent.
- Baseline employment projection (2024-2030):
  - Total employed increases by 1304 persons (679 males and 625 females) or 2.3 percent (2.4 percent for males and 2.2 percent for females).
  - Employment growth slowly declines and becomes flat by 2030.

### Counterfactual LFP scenarios and employment impacts
- Scenario A — Increase female LFP to 62 percent by 2030 (reduce gender gap by 30 percent):
  - Required pace: about 0.45 percentage point increase per annum in female LFP.
  - Additional female employment (over 2025-2030, on top of baseline): 4.8 percent or 1295 persons.
  - Total employment gain (2024-2030): 2599 persons or 4.7 percent.
  - Male employment and female employment growth: 2.4 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively.
- Scenario B — Raise male LFP by 0.3 percent per annum to 70.1 percent by 2030:
  - Increase in male employment relative to baseline (2024-2030): 754 persons or 2.7 percentage points.
  - Total employed growth (2024-2030): 2058 persons or 3.7 percent.
  - Male and female employment growth: 5.1 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively.
- Scenario C — Combine female and male LFP increases:
  - Overall LFP reaches 65.8 percent; gender gap shrinks to 8.1 percent.
  - Total employment increase over 2024-2030 (additional relative to baseline): 2728 people, or 2.7 percentage points.
  - Total employment gain (2024-2030): 2728 persons or 6.0 percent.
  - Male and female employment growth: 5.1 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively.

### Impact on output (GDP) from higher LFP
- Baseline contribution of labor to GDP growth: about 0.4 percent.
- Medium-term GDP effects assuming baseline capital and TFP projections:
  - Increasing male LFP: additional 0.14 percentage points of GDP growth relative to baseline.
  - Increasing female LFP: additional 0.24 percent of GDP growth.
  - Combined scenario: additional 0.38 percentage points of GDP by 2030.

### Policy options and recommendations
- Macro and demographic context:
  - Falling fertility and aging population reduce the ratio of workers to dependents, likely lowering future growth and stressing health and social insurance systems.
- Labor supply and labor-market-friction policies:
  - Expand access to formal labor markets via integrated approaches and deepen active labor market policies.
  - Establish an online job database; provide job search assistance (CV advice, interview preparation), vocational training and internship programs; create a center for personalized job matching services; offer digital skills training.
  - Provide vocational training or other short-cycle programs to address skill mismatches for youth and integrate inactive and unemployed into the labor force.
  - Invest in retraining and reskilling with emphasis on digital skills, entrepreneurship competencies, and financial education in the national education system.
  - Promote youth and female entrepreneurship.
  - Offer flexible work options backed by unemployment insurance to enhance the business and investment climate.
  - Implement programs encouraging older workers to remain in or re-enter the workforce.
- Policies to increase female LFP:
  - Improve availability and affordability of childcare and elderly care within fiscal-rule limits.
  - Mitigate asymmetries in parental benefits and consider more flexible parental leave.
  - Encourage women into STEM careers to raise returns to education and female labor market profitability.
  - Use school curriculum and job centers to promote female entrepreneurship and financial literacy.
- Migrant integration:
  - Allow young, skilled immigrants to fill vacancies to raise social security and healthcare contributions.
  - Continue formalization of undocumented migrants.
  - Consider social insurance measures for migrants/returning Arubans (e.g., right to repurchase lost years between ages 15 and pension age or require a minimum of paid taxes for program eligibility).

*Source: National authorities and IMF staff calculations (selected issues paper text).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/selected-issues-papers/2025/english/sipea2025156.pdf_