## tarea2024014 - 1. Under the auspices of the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) funded

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---

### Mission overview and objectives
- Diagnostic mission conducted during July 17–21, 2023 to develop a workplan for enhancing environment and climate change statistics necessary for policy making.
- Part of a two-year multi-country project including trainings and targeted hands-on technical assistance to support development of macro-relevant environmental and climate change indicators to inform policy and monitor the impact of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
- Mission activities: met with key national stakeholders representing data compilers and users to take stock of work already undertaken, ongoing capacity development initiatives, policy needs and data gaps, and data sources.

### Climate impacts and risks in South Africa
- Over the last decade about 3.8 million people in South Africa were affected by natural catastrophes: prolonged droughts, severe floods, and devasting storms.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects extreme temperatures to be on the upward trajectory.
- Aridity and drought risks expected to be on the upward trajectory, with most models pointing to the likelihood of severe annual droughts increasing by 39 percent by 2050s and greater probability of extreme storms and other climate-related hazards near the Indian Ocean.
- Recent climate catastrophes cited: severe water shortage in Cape Town and record floods in Durban.
- Nature-related risks and economic dependence:
  - 50 percent of South Africa’s output is produced by economic activities highly dependent on at least 2 different ecosystem services.
  - About 70 percent of final demand, 58 percent of profits, 46 percent of wages, 40 percent of employment, 51 percent of taxes, and 83 percent of net exports appear to be generated in sectors highly dependent on at least one ecosystem services.

### Emissions profile and energy system
- South African economy is highly carbon intensive.
- Currently, South Africa has the highest intensity of GHG emissions among the G20 economies.
- Emissions from fuel combustion account for over 70 percent of total GHG emissions in South Africa and are largely associated with electricity generation, of which over 90 percent come from coal-fueled plants.
- Coal contributes significantly to South African exports and is closely linked to the financial sector through credit facilities.
- Geographic concentration of coal mining areas (mainly in Mpumalanga, along with 12 of the country’s 15 coal-fired power stations) poses challenges for a low-carbon energy transition.

### Policy framework and instruments
- Government Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan launched in 2020 emphasized climate action for a more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient economy.
- Key policy instruments and strategies:
  - Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) established to facilitate South Africa’s just transition framework (JTF) to a low-carbon economy and climate-resilient society by 2050.
  - Draft Climate Change Bill tabled for Parliament approval in October 2021 to enable an effective, coordinated, and integrated climate change response; new legislation will define emissions targets for specific sectors (and subsectors), allocate carbon budgets for high-emitting activities, and establish adaptation scenarios and a trajectory for reducing national emissions consistent with South Africa’s international commitments.
  - National Climate Change Response Policy (NCCRP), National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, South Africa’s Low Emission Development Strategy (SA-LEDS), National Waste Management Strategy, Green Economy Policy Review of South Africa’s Industrial Policy Framework.
- National targets and instruments:
  - South Africa’s international commitments: to reduce South Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 350–420 MtCO2e by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by the midcentury.
  - Carbon tax adopted in June 2019; tax covers about 90 percent of the country’s total GHG emissions, excluding agriculture, forestry, land use, and waste.
  - April 2022: release of Green Finance Taxonomy (GFT).
  - Plans to use sectoral and company-level carbon budgets as part of the mitigation policy package; carbon budgets will provide GHG emissions allowance tracked over a period of five calendar years.

### Data and statistical capacity gaps
- Need for large amounts of granular, relevant, and reliable data for evidence-based planning and a just transition; recognized in the Analytical Pillar of SA-LEDS.
- Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) mandate: coordination of official statistics (Statistics Act 1999).
- Existing outputs:
  - 2015 and 2017 Environmental Economic Accounting Compendium: environmental economic accounts for fisheries, minerals, and energy based on the SEEA-CF.
  - SEEA Ecosystem Accounting outputs: land and terrestrial ecosystem accounts, protected areas accounts, and strategic water source areas accounts.
- Key gaps and limitations:
  - Air emissions accounts (AEAs) are not produced, impeding integrated analysis of GHGs, air pollutants, and economic activity.
  - Disaggregated government expenditure on environment and subsidies—especially from sub-sovereign governments and municipalities—are not produced.
  - Long lag between the last reference year and the publication date: +1-4 years, limiting usefulness for early policy interventions.
  - Need to strengthen capacity for collection of statistics on government environmental expenditures and subsidies, and tailored technical assistance/training on carbon footprints of foreign direct investments.

### Institutional arrangements and coordination
- Multiple producers of climate-related statistics: Department of Forestry, Fisheries, and Environment (DFFE); Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE); South African Reserve Bank (SARB); National Treasury (NT); National Business Initiative (NBI); South African Revenue Service (SARS); South African Weather Service (SAWS); Department of Science and Innovation (DSI); Department of Water Sanitation (DWS); South Africa National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI); South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI); among others.
- Legal provision: statistics and information produced by government departments/institutions should be made available on request (and without charge) to Statistics South Africa for use in producing official statistics (Statistics Act 1999, section 14 (9), (c) and (d)).
- Institutional arrangements for production and sharing not fully formalized.
- Existing coordination forum: Environment Sectoral Working Group (SWG) — coordinates biennial reporting on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as input into the South African Country Report.

### Donor support and resource needs
- Climate change initiatives supported by bilateral and multilateral donors: European Union (EU), France, Germany, Norway, The Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, the United States, the African Development Bank, UNEP, UNSD, the IMF, and the World Bank Group.
- Past support focus:
  - EU and Norway: natural capital accounting and valuation of ecosystem services.
  - IMF and World Bank: macro-critical policy work.
- New statistical programs need budget enhancements.

### Priority recommendations and target dates (Table 1 / Table 4)
- March 2024
  - Initiate a coordination mechanism for the establishment of a centralized environment and climate change database.
  - Responsible Institutions: Stats-SA/DFFE/DMRE/NT/SARB/DPME
- November 2024
  - Improve the coverage of energy flow accounts and re-establish dissemination.
  - Responsible Institutions: Stats SA, DMRE
- February 2026
  - Develop preliminary first set of air emission accounts (AEAs) and disseminate.
  - Responsible Institutions: Stats SA, DFFE

### Analytical and implementation highlights
- The mission recommends creating a centralized and harmonized environment and climate change database, enshrined in the Statistics Act with governance entrenched in South Africa’s institutional arrangements for climate change response.
- Effective implementation of SA-LEDS demands:
  - Appropriate institutional arrangements and legislation to ensure coherent, consistent, and transparent data collection from the thirteen identified sectors.
  - Data production explicitly included in the forthcoming Climate Change Bill (as stated in paragraphs 20 and 26 of the draft Bill excerpt referenced).

### Institutional arrangements and legal framework (expanded)
- Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) established to coordinate and oversee South Africa’s just transition framework (JTF) to a low-carbon economy and climate-resilient society by 2050. The JTF was approved by Cabinet in August 2022 after extensive consultation and provides a people-centered vision of the climate change transition over the next 25 years.
- Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (IMCCC): Executive-level committee co-chaired by the Minister of the Environment and the Minister responsible for planning monitoring and Evaluation in the Presidency. Function: coordinate and align climate change response efforts, including statutory and regulatory needs.
- Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change (IGCCC): Consists of relevant national, provincial departments and local government. Function: operationalize cooperative governance on climate change issues.
- MINMEC and MINTECH: Facilitate policy and strategy coherence among national, provincial, and local government; guide climate change work across the three spheres of government.
- National Committee on Climate Change (NCCC): Multi-stakeholder committee (academia, business, NGOs, labor, government, civil society). Function: consult with stakeholders, advise on national responsibilities and implementation of climate change activities.
- Draft Climate Change Bill (Government Gazette No. 45299 of 11 October 2021) excerpts:
  - CHAPTER 4 — Adaptation Information and Synthesis Adaptation Report: Minister may require persons to provide data, information, documents, samples, or materials reasonably required for the purposes of the National Climate Change Response White Paper; Minister must collate, compile, synthesize and publish a Synthesis Adaptation Report for Cabinet and for national and international reporting.
  - CHAPTER 5 — National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Minister must establish institutional arrangement to facilitate a national system of data collection for the creation of a National Greenhouse Gas Inventory and the annual compilation of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report; the report must set out and analyse emissions trends and compare actual emissions against the national greenhouse gas emissions trajectory and national and international mitigation commitments; Minister may identify activities and thresholds for measurements or estimations of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks.

### Climate goals, GHG trajectory, and international commitments
- South Africa signed the Paris Agreement in 2016. Parties agreed to limit “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”
- South Africa submitted first NDC targets in 2015 and updated them in 2021 with more ambitious targets representing a narrowing of the older “peak, plateau, and decline” trajectory range, to peak by 2025 and then quickly decline to 350–420 MtCO2e by 2030, and approach net‐zero emissions by 2050.
- GHG trajectory specifics:
  - Emissions should peak in the period 2020 to 2025 within a range with a lower limit of 398 megatons (109kg) (Mt) CO2-eq and upper limits of 583 Mt CO2-eq and 614 Mt CO2- eq for 2020 and 2025, respectively.
  - Emissions will then plateau for up to ten years after the peak within the range with a lower limit of 398 Mt CO2-eq and upper limit of 614 Mt CO2-eq.
  - From 2036 onwards, emissions will decline in absolute terms to a range with a lower limit of 212 Mt CO2-eq and an upper limit of 428 Mt CO2-eq by 2050.
- The Climate Change Bill makes provision for regular updates of this trajectory to align with the Paris Agreement context.

### Data, coordination, and implementation challenges (expanded)
- Despite progress in mitigation and adaptation policies, there is no centralized and harmonized climate change database.
- Strong institutional coordination is critical to create such a database to:
  - facilitate evidence-based policy analysis and climate change reporting;
  - standardize and harmonize methodologies for compiling climate change indicators and metrics;
  - streamline data collection mechanisms and reduce defragmentation in policy intervention;
  - improve communication and foster efficiency gains by utilizing various administrative data sources.
- Stakeholder-identified data challenges:
  - lack of sector-coordinated implementation mechanisms;
  - absence of standardized indicators and metrics;
  - inadequate sectoral central reporting systems or repositories;
  - inefficient international coding of indicators system;
  - carbon budget tagging gaps across the budget spectrum to better capture climate-related public expenditures and climate-related investment projects and transfers to SOEs and provinces;
  - capacity constraints to produce reliable data, particularly in state governments and municipalities.
- Multiple primary data producers have useful granular environmental and climate data that key users (including Statistics South Africa) are not aware of, as prescribed in the Statistics Act 1999.

### Key stakeholders, initiatives, and Natural Capital Accounting (NCA)
- Principal statistical and coordination bodies:
  - Statistics South Africa: broad mandate to collect and produce official statistics including environmental and climate change statistics; long history of producing Natural Capital Accounts (NCA); follows SEEA-CF and SEEA ecosystem accounts; participated in ANCA and NCAVES.
  - Departments and agencies: DFFE, DMRE, DPME, DWS, DSI, SANBI, National Treasury, SANParks, WRC, SARB, SARS, SAWS, SANEDI, and others.
- Coordination initiatives:
  - DPME establishing a national monitoring and evaluation system to monitor implementation of mitigation actions across the economy; objective to collect the right environment data coherently and transparently from all sectors (fields of action).
  - Natural Capital Accounting Coordination Unit (created in 2021) led by a Strategic Advisory Group (SAG) chaired by the Director of Environmental Economic Accounts to advance NCA strategy, ensure links with national policies, advise on institutional arrangements, and guide priorities and stakeholder engagements. SAG meets once or twice a year.
  - Statistics South Africa initiative to establish an IIF for identifying and tracking climate-related data gaps.
- Green Finance Taxonomy (GFT):
  - Developed to identify and track sustainable finance activities for investors; developed by a Working Group chaired by the National Treasury with representatives from DFFE, DPME, SARB, Johannesburg Stock Exchange, Financial Sector Conduct Authority, Prudential Authority, Banking Association South Africa, Council of Retirement Funds for South Africa, Association for Savings and Investment South Africa, and private sector.
  - Released in April 2022; defines a minimum set of assets, projects, activities, and sectors eligible to be defined as "green" in line with international best practice and national priorities; expected use by investors, issuers, and financial sector participants to track and demonstrate green activities.
- NCA activities and outputs (selected, dates preserved):
  - Water accounts — Stats SA (2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2018).
  - Energy accounts — Stats SA (2005, 2008-2012, 2014-2017).
  - Mineral accounts — Stats SA (2002, 2004, 2008-2013, 2014-2017).
  - Fisheries accounts — Stats SA (2010, 2012, 2013, 2014-2017).
  - Land and ecosystem accounts for KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) — Stats SA & SANBI in NCAVES Project (2015).
  - National river ecosystem accounts (2015).
  - Pilot ecosystem service accounts for KZN, 2005 to 2011 — (2021).
  - Land and terrestrial ecosystem accounts, 1990 to 2014 — (2020).
  - Accounts for protected areas, 1900 to 2020 — (2021).
  - Accounts for species: rhinoceros and cycad plant group — (2021) (Experimental. Will not be published.)
  - Accounts for strategic water source areas, 1990 to 2020 — SANBI through EI4WS Project (2023).
  - Accounts for ecological infrastructure assets — Intended year of publication: 2024*.
  - Detailed catchment-level water resource accounts — CWRR 2015, 2019, 2024* (Experimental).
  - Ecosystem Accounts for South Africa: Report of the NCAVES Project — Stats SA, DFFE & SANBI (2021).
- Role of NCA outputs: linked to policy instruments such as National Water Act, NWRS, National Water and Sanitation Master Plan, NDP, NBSAP, SDG Targets, National Energy Efficiency Strategy, Provincial SDFs, Municipal Integrated Development Plans, National Biodiversity Economy Strategy, and others.

### Observations, priorities, and resource constraints
- Formalized inter-agency coordination for climate change statistics is limited, with the exception of NCA work; coordination must be strengthened to avoid duplication and to improve efficiency and use of scarce expertise.
- Statistics South Africa and DPME are well-positioned to lead inter-agency coordination and collaboration on climate change statistics and monitoring.
- Meeting new data demands (DGI 3, NDP, SDGs, AU Agenda 2063, etc.) may require budget augmentation for several statistical programs and capacity strengthening across spheres of government.
- Finding: South Africa faces resource constraints in producing environment and climate change statistics on a sustainable basis; funding for statistical programs should be considered.
- Current situation: Many projects are donor funded for a finite life; lack of a well-resourced dedicated team for ongoing statistical production.
- Authorities stated they have technical capacity and skill sets but lack funds to create placements, especially on a permanent basis.

### Air Emissions Accounts (AEAs), Carbon Footprint, and Energy Flow Accounts
- AEAs:
  - Policy use: AEAs are important for monitoring the effect of climate mitigation policies and present information on gaseous and particulate substances released to the atmosphere by resident establishments and households as a result of production, consumption, and accumulation.
  - Structure: AEAs are structured by industry (various levels of detail) and by household and are consistent with national accounts estimates of value-added and output; can be integrated with annual estimates of output or gross value-added at constant prices to derive GHG emission intensities by industry.
  - Data source: Emission Inventory data for South Africa are available from 2000–2020 and are a key data source for AEAs.
  - Producer: DFFE produces official GHG emissions inventory data annually and reports to the UNFCCC every other year; inventories are classified by technical processes (sources) and can be adjusted to compile AEAs.
  - Note on adjustments: Two adjustments are needed to use inventory data for AEAs: (1) move from a territory-based to a residency-based recording and the inclusion of international transportation in total emissions; and (2) break down emission sources into production activities and households.
  - Co-benefits and risks: GHGs and air pollutants are typically emitted by the same sources; mitigation reducing GHGs or fossil fuels typically reduces pollutants (e.g., PM2.5 and PM10), but focus on a certain pollutant can in at least one instance increase carbon dioxide emissions—highlighting need to monitor all air emissions.
  - Institutional interaction: Interaction between DFFE and Statistics South Africa is essential to produce AEAs and to establish concordance between emission sources and economic activities; social learning, institution building, and close collaboration (including Memorandum of Understanding) are needed.
- Current statistical infrastructure relevant to AEAs:
  - Benchmark Supply and Use tables (SUTs) available from 2013–2020 but not on the latest ISIC classification; compilation level is 118 products and 213 industry groupings; SUTs publication level is 108 products and 124 industry groupings.
  - Classification: Latest ISIC revision 4 has not been adopted; current classification is based on ISIC revision 3.
  - Input-Output tables: Last published Input-Output tables (50 by 50 matrix) for 2014 have been discontinued due to resource constraints.
  - Staffing: Current team only consists of six economists who work on SUTs, provincial GDP estimates, and satellite accounts.
- Carbon Footprint:
  - Rationale: South Africa is carbon intensive; carbon footprints are useful to monitor carbon intensity of final demand components, including exports, and to assess decoupling of GHG emissions from economic growth.
  - Global context: Reductions in domestic emissions can be offset abroad due to global value chains and relocation of carbon-intensive production; carbon footprints help distinguish domestic improvements from displacement/substitution effects—relevant for potential carbon border adjustments (example: EU plan to put a carbon levy on imported goods).
  - Current status: Statistics South Africa does not produce carbon footprint estimates currently; once AEAs are established, carbon footprints could be produced as an analytical application of AEAs focusing on final demand ("consumption") perspective.
  - Presentation: Carbon footprints are generally national-level annual estimates, broken down by output industry, contributing industries, and final demand categories.
  - Priority: Carbon footprint data did not emerge as a top priority at this stage but would fill the G20 DGI-3 data gap (Continuation of Recommendation 1).
- Energy Flow Accounts:
  - Need: Transition to a low-carbon economy implies change in energy mix; energy accounts are needed to monitor energy policies and integrate energy statistics with economic data per SEEA-CF.
  - Uses: Energy accounts describe supply and use of energy by economic activity; allow calculation of energy intensities by economic activities, energy footprints, and structural decomposition analysis; combined with energy taxes/subsidies data they aid policy analysis.
  - Historical production: Energy accounts produced by Statistics South Africa as part of the Environmental Economic Accounting (EEA) Compendium but not produced since 2017.
  - Data coverage: 2017 EEA compendium contains physical energy supply and use tables for 2002–2013; summary account 2002–2013 covered supply for eight energy products and total energy use for eight industrial groupings, inventory changes, private consumption, exports, and distribution losses; a more detailed use table is provided for 2013.
  - Staffing constraint: Three staff dedicated to environmental accounts; focus shifted to SEEA ecosystem accounts; energy accounts not updated due to resource constraints.
  - Stakeholder issues: Previously published energy accounts display a four-year lag between last reference year (2013) and publication date (2017), limiting timeliness; data are too aggregated—stakeholders request more disaggregation by energy type and industrial breakdowns.
  - Institutional data provision: DMRE is the primary provider/producer of energy balances for South Africa; data currently provided at national level but there is strong demand to explore feasibility of producing accounts at municipal level.
  - In G20 DGI-3: Energy accounts identified as critical (Recommendation 2) and are priority in South African National Capital Accounting Strategy (goal 3).

### Environmental activity accounts, government revenue, and expenditures
- Current coverage: Statistics South Africa produces some national-level environmental protection expenditure data.
- GFS tax revenue data: Published at too high an aggregation for detailed analysis; SARS publishes tax statistics including environmental statistics at a more granular level.
- SARS environmental tax details include: air passenger tax, tire levy, plastic bag levy, electricity levy, incandescent lightbulb levy, CO2 tax on motor vehicle emissions, and carbon tax.
- Carbon Tax Act: Came into effect on June 1, 2019; administered and collected by SARS.
- Expenditure classification: Statistics South Africa publishes environmental protection expenditures at the 4-digit Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG) level (examples: Waste management, Wastewater management, Pollution abatement, Protection of biodiversity and landscape, R&D environmental protection, Environmental protection nec).
- Stakeholder interest: SANBI and others interested in learning what is captured, how classifications work, and items out of scope (noting much environmental protection expenditure is done through NGOs and civil society).

### Capacity development activities proposed
- Proposed activities:
  - Stakeholders workshop on macro-critical environment and climate change statistics.
  - Given large number of stakeholders, additional workshops could allow for training on energy and air emission accounts and on-going technical support over the duration of the project.
  - Support establishment of collaboration among stakeholders and encourage a coordination mechanism at management level to set priorities and enable data sharing across institutions.

### Medium-term work program and future data areas
- Potential future work: Climate-related government expenditures and carbon footprints of foreign direct investment (FDI).
- SECO project horizon: Short time horizon ends in December 2024.
- Priorities to request in the future: Technical assistance and training on developing data to fill DGI-3 gaps:
  - Recommendation 3: carbon footprints of foreign direct investment (FDI).
  - Recommendation 6: climate-sustaining and climate-damaging subsidies.
  - Recommendation 7: climate change mitigation and adaptation current and capital expenditures by institutional sector.

### Conclusions and priority recommendations (mission proposals and SECO outputs)
- Recommendations proposed:
  - Establish a centralized environment and climate change database with formalized institutional arrangement for coordination to avoid duplication, ensure complementarity, and serve as a one-stop repository for indicators (authorities to determine which indicators; could include DGI-3 indicators); integration into IIF is at authorities’ discretion.
  - Establish a coordination mechanism at a decision-making level to ensure continuous coordination; updated Statistics Act could provide leverage for Statistics South Africa to act as lead coordinator. The Climate Change Bill (introduced in the National Assembly on 24 October 2023) should support data collection. SARB is lead institution for reporting to FSB and IAG on DGI-3; given DGI recommendations 1-7 focus on climate statistics, broader coordination is warranted. Recommendation that Statistics South Africa lead coordination leveraging the amended Statistics Act 2023 and experience with NCA; authorities could establish such a mechanism by March 2024. (This is a recommendation to the authorities and not a project deliverable.)
  - Develop first air emission accounts for South Africa by leveraging UNFCCC inventories produced by DFFE with Statistics South Africa; AEAs could cover both GHG emissions and other air pollutants.
  - Improve coverage of energy flow accounts and reestablish dissemination.
- Table 4: Priority recommendations and target dates (as proposed)
  - March 2024 — Establish a centralized environment and climate change database with formalized institutional arrangement for coordination — Responsible Institutions: Stats SA; DFFE/DMRE/NT/SARB/DPME
  - November 2024 — Improve the coverage of energy flow accounts and reestablish dissemination — Responsible Institutions: Stats SA, DMRE
  - February 2026 — Develop preliminary first set of AEAs and disseminate — Responsible Institutions: Stats SA, DFFE

*IMF | Technical Assistance Report – South Africa Climate Change Statistics*

### 1. Under the auspices of the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) funded

### tarea2024014 - 1. Under the auspices of the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) funded

### Mission overview and objectives
- Diagnostic mission conducted during July 17–21, 2023 to develop a workplan for enhancing environment and climate change statistics necessary for policy making.
- Part of a two-year multi-country project including trainings and targeted hands-on technical assistance to support development of macro-relevant environmental and climate change indicators to inform policy and monitor the impact of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
- Mission activities: met with key national stakeholders representing data compilers and users to take stock of work already undertaken, ongoing capacity development initiatives, policy needs and data gaps, and data sources.

### Climate impacts and risks in South Africa
- Over the last decade about 3.8 million people in South Africa were affected by natural catastrophes: prolonged droughts, severe floods, and devasting storms.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects extreme temperatures to be on the upward trajectory.
- Aridity and drought risks expected to be on the upward trajectory, with most models pointing to the likelihood of severe annual droughts increasing by 39 percent by 2050s and greater probability of extreme storms and other climate-related hazards near the Indian Ocean.
- Recent climate catastrophes cited: severe water shortage in Cape Town and record floods in Durban.
- Nature-related risks and economic dependence:
  - 50 percent of South Africa’s output is produced by economic activities highly dependent on at least 2 different ecosystem services.
  - About 70 percent of final demand, 58 percent of profits, 46 percent of wages, 40 percent of employment, 51 percent of taxes, and 83 percent of net exports appear to be generated in sectors highly dependent on at least one ecosystem services.

### Emissions profile and energy system
- South African economy is highly carbon intensive.
- Currently, South Africa has the highest intensity of GHG emissions among the G20 economies.
- Emissions from fuel combustion account for over 70 percent of total GHG emissions in South Africa and are largely associated with electricity generation, of which over 90 percent come from coal-fueled plants.
- Coal contributes significantly to South African exports and is closely linked to the financial sector through credit facilities.
- Geographic concentration of coal mining areas (mainly in Mpumalanga, along with 12 of the country’s 15 coal-fired power stations) poses challenges for a low-carbon energy transition.

### Policy framework and instruments
- Government Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan launched in 2020 emphasized climate action for a more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient economy.
- Key policy instruments and strategies:
  - Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) established to facilitate South Africa’s just transition framework (JTF) to a low-carbon economy and climate-resilient society by 2050.
  - Draft Climate Change Bill tabled for Parliament approval in October 2021 to enable an effective, coordinated, and integrated climate change response; new legislation will define emissions targets for specific sectors (and subsectors), allocate carbon budgets for high-emitting activities, and establish adaptation scenarios and a trajectory for reducing national emissions consistent with South Africa’s international commitments.
  - National Climate Change Response Policy (NCCRP), National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, South Africa’s Low Emission Development Strategy (SA-LEDS), National Waste Management Strategy, Green Economy Policy Review of South Africa’s Industrial Policy Framework.
- National targets and instruments:
  - South Africa’s international commitments: to reduce South Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 350–420 MtCO2e by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by the midcentury.
  - Carbon tax adopted in June 2019; tax covers about 90 percent of the country’s total GHG emissions, excluding agriculture, forestry, land use, and waste.
  - April 2022: release of Green Finance Taxonomy (GFT).
  - Plans to use sectoral and company-level carbon budgets as part of the mitigation policy package; carbon budgets will provide GHG emissions allowance tracked over a period of five calendar years.

### Data and statistical capacity gaps
- Need for large amounts of granular, relevant, and reliable data for evidence-based planning and a just transition; recognized in the Analytical Pillar of SA-LEDS.
- Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) mandate: coordination of official statistics (Statistics Act 1999).
- Existing outputs:
  - 2015 and 2017 Environmental Economic Accounting Compendium: environmental economic accounts for fisheries, minerals, and energy based on the SEEA-CF.
  - SEEA Ecosystem Accounting outputs: land and terrestrial ecosystem accounts, protected areas accounts, and strategic water source areas accounts.
- Key gaps and limitations:
  - Air emissions accounts (AEAs) are not produced, impeding integrated analysis of GHGs, air pollutants, and economic activity.
  - Disaggregated government expenditure on environment and subsidies—especially from sub-sovereign governments and municipalities—are not produced.
  - Long lag between the last reference year and the publication date: +1-4 years, limiting usefulness for early policy interventions.
  - Need to strengthen capacity for collection of statistics on government environmental expenditures and subsidies, and tailored technical assistance/training on carbon footprints of foreign direct investments.

### Institutional arrangements and coordination
- Multiple producers of climate-related statistics: Department of Forestry, Fisheries, and Environment (DFFE); Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE); South African Reserve Bank (SARB); National Treasury (NT); National Business Initiative (NBI); South African Revenue Service (SARS); South African Weather Service (SAWS); Department of Science and Innovation (DSI); Department of Water Sanitation (DWS); South Africa National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI); South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI); among others.
- Legal provision: statistics and information produced by government departments/institutions should be made available on request (and without charge) to Statistics South Africa for use in producing official statistics (Statistics Act 1999, section 14 (9), (c) and (d)).
- Institutional arrangements for production and sharing not fully formalized.
- Existing coordination forum: Environment Sectoral Working Group (SWG) — coordinates biennial reporting on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as input into the South African Country Report.

### Donor support and resource needs
- Climate change initiatives supported by bilateral and multilateral donors: European Union (EU), France, Germany, Norway, The Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, the United States, the African Development Bank, UNEP, UNSD, the IMF, and the World Bank Group.
- Past support focus:
  - EU and Norway: natural capital accounting and valuation of ecosystem services.
  - IMF and World Bank: macro-critical policy work.
- New statistical programs need budget enhancements.

### Priority recommendations and target dates (Table 1)
- March 2024
  - Initiate a coordination mechanism for the establishment of a centralized environment and climate change database.
  - Responsible Institutions: Stats-SA/DFFE/DMRE/NT/SARB/DPME
- November 2024
  - Improve the coverage of energy flow accounts and re-establish dissemination.
  - Responsible Institutions: Stats SA, DMRE
- February 2026
  - Develop preliminary first set of air emission accounts (AEAs) and disseminate.
  - Responsible Institutions: Stats SA, DFFE

### Analytical and implementation highlights
- The mission recommends creating a centralized and harmonized environment and climate change database, enshrined in the Statistics Act with governance entrenched in South Africa’s institutional arrangements for climate change response.
- Effective implementation of SA-LEDS demands:
  - Appropriate institutional arrangements and legislation to ensure coherent, consistent, and transparent data collection from the thirteen identified sectors.
  - Data production explicitly included in the forthcoming Climate Change Bill (as stated in paragraphs 20 and 26 of the draft Bill excerpt referenced).

*IMF | Technical Assistance Report – South Africa Climate Change Statistics*

### 18. The government has set up robust institutional arrangements and legislative framework to

### 18. The government has set up robust institutional arrangements and legislative framework to address climate change response actions

### Institutional arrangements and legal framework
- Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) established to coordinate and oversee South Africa’s just transition framework (JTF) to a low-carbon economy and climate-resilient society by 2050. The JTF was approved by Cabinet in August 2022 after extensive consultation and provides a people-centered vision of the climate change transition over the next 25 years.
- Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (IMCCC): Executive-level committee co-chaired by the Minister of the Environment and the Minister responsible for planning monitoring and Evaluation in the Presidency. Function: coordinate and align climate change response efforts, including statutory and regulatory needs.
- Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change (IGCCC): Consists of relevant national, provincial departments and local government. Function: operationalize cooperative governance on climate change issues.
- Ministers and Members of Executive Councils (MINMEC) and the Ministerial Technical Advisory Body (MINTECH): Facilitate policy and strategy coherence among national, provincial, and local government; guide climate change work across the three spheres of government.
- National Committee on Climate Change (NCCC): Multi-stakeholder committee (academia, business, NGOs, labor, government, civil society). Function: consult with stakeholders, advise on national responsibilities and implementation of climate change activities.
- Draft Climate Change Bill (Government Gazette No. 45299 of 11 October 2021) excerpts:
  - CHAPTER 4 — Adaptation Information and Synthesis Adaptation Report: Minister may require persons to provide data, information, documents, samples, or materials reasonably required for the purposes of the National Climate Change Response White Paper; Minister must collate, compile, synthesize and publish a Synthesis Adaptation Report for Cabinet and for national and international reporting.
  - CHAPTER 5 — National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Minister must establish institutional arrangement to facilitate a national system of data collection for the creation of a National Greenhouse Gas Inventory and the annual compilation of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report; the report must set out and analyse emissions trends and compare actual emissions against the national greenhouse gas emissions trajectory and national and international mitigation commitments; Minister may identify activities and thresholds for measurements or estimations of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks.

### Climate goals, GHG trajectory, and international commitments
- South Africa signed the Paris Agreement in 2016. Parties agreed to limit “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”
- South Africa submitted first NDC targets in 2015 and updated them in 2021 with more ambitious targets representing a narrowing of the older “peak, plateau, and decline” trajectory range, to peak by 2025 and then quickly decline to 350–420 MtCO2e by 2030, and approach net‐zero emissions by 2050.
- GHG trajectory specifics:
  - Emissions should peak in the period 2020 to 2025 within a range with a lower limit of 398 megatons (109kg) (Mt) CO2-eq and upper limits of 583 Mt CO2-eq and 614 Mt CO2- eq for 2020 and 2025, respectively.
  - Emissions will then plateau for up to ten years after the peak within the range with a lower limit of 398 Mt CO2-eq and upper limit of 614 Mt CO2-eq.
  - From 2036 onwards, emissions will decline in absolute terms to a range with a lower limit of 212 Mt CO2-eq and an upper limit of 428 Mt CO2-eq by 2050.
- The Climate Change Bill makes provision for regular updates of this trajectory to align with the Paris Agreement context.

### Data, coordination, and implementation challenges
- Despite progress in mitigation and adaptation policies, there is no centralized and harmonized climate change database.
- Strong institutional coordination is critical to create such a database to:
  - facilitate evidence-based policy analysis and climate change reporting;
  - standardize and harmonize methodologies for compiling climate change indicators and metrics;
  - streamline data collection mechanisms and reduce defragmentation in policy intervention;
  - improve communication and foster efficiency gains by utilizing various administrative data sources.
- Stakeholder-identified data challenges:
  - lack of sector-coordinated implementation mechanisms;
  - absence of standardized indicators and metrics;
  - inadequate sectoral central reporting systems or repositories;
  - inefficient international coding of indicators system;
  - carbon budget tagging gaps across the budget spectrum to better capture climate-related public expenditures and climate-related investment projects and transfers to SOEs and provinces;
  - capacity constraints to produce reliable data, particularly in state governments and municipalities.
- Multiple primary data producers have useful granular environmental and climate data that key users (including Statistics South Africa) are not aware of, as prescribed in the Statistics Act 1999.

### Key stakeholders and initiatives
- Principal statistical and coordination bodies:
  - Statistics South Africa: broad mandate to collect and produce official statistics including environmental and climate change statistics; long history of producing Natural Capital Accounts (NCA); follows SEEA-CF and SEEA ecosystem accounts; participated in ANCA and NCAVES.
  - Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE), Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation (DPME), Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS), Department of Science and Innovation (DSI), SANBI, National Treasury (NT), SANParks, WRC, SARB, SARS, SAWS, SANEDI, and others.
- Coordination initiatives:
  - DPME establishing a national monitoring and evaluation system to monitor implementation of mitigation actions across the economy; objective to collect the right environment data coherently and transparently from all sectors (fields of action).
  - Natural Capital Accounting Coordination Unit (created in 2021) led by a Strategic Advisory Group (SAG) chaired by the Director of Environmental Economic Accounts to advance NCA strategy, ensure links with national policies, advise on institutional arrangements, and guide priorities and stakeholder engagements. SAG meets once or twice a year.
  - Statistics South Africa initiative to establish an IIF for identifying and tracking climate-related data gaps.
- Green Finance Taxonomy (GFT):
  - Developed to identify and track sustainable finance activities for investors; developed by a Working Group chaired by the National Treasury with representatives from DFFE, DPME, SARB, Johannesburg Stock Exchange, Financial Sector Conduct Authority, Prudential Authority, Banking Association South Africa, Council of Retirement Funds for South Africa, Association for Savings and Investment South Africa, and private sector.
  - Released in April 2022; defines a minimum set of assets, projects, activities, and sectors eligible to be defined as "green" in line with international best practice and national priorities; expected use by investors, issuers, and financial sector participants to track and demonstrate green activities.

### Donor support and external assistance
- Bilateral and multilateral supporters of South Africa’s climate initiatives include: France, Germany, Norway, The Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, African Development Bank, European Union (EU), UNEP, UNSD, IMF, and World Bank.
  - EU technical assistance: natural capital accounting and valuation of ecosystem services.
  - Norway: advancing natural capital accounting.
  - IMF and World Bank Group: technical support mainly for macro-critical policy analysis.
- Some initiatives were financed by specific donors (as noted in source content, e.g., Green Finance Taxonomy project financing sources).

### Natural Capital Accounting (NCA) activities and outputs
- Statistics South Africa involvement in NCA:
  - Participated in ANCA (2014) and co-led NCAVES (2017–2021) with SANBI; NCAVES outcomes included a ten-year strategy for advancing NCA, compilation of five sets of natural capital accounts, and creation of the Natural Capital Accounting Coordination Unit in 2021.
  - The National Natural Capital Accounting Strategy: A ten-year strategy (June 2021) underpins work and coordination.
- Table of NCA work (selected entries, dates preserved exactly as in source):
  - Water accounts — Stats SA (2002 to 2010). Stats SA &WRC (2018). Dates: 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2018.
  - Energy accounts — Stats SA. Dates: 2005, 2008-2012, 2014-2017.
  - Mineral accounts — Stats SA. Dates: 2002, 2004, 2008-2013 2014-2017.
  - Fisheries accounts — Stats SA. Dates: 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014-2017.
  - Land and ecosystem accounts for KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) — Stats SA & SANBI in NCAVES Project. Date: 2015.
  - National river ecosystem accounts — Date: 2015.
  - Pilot ecosystem service accounts for KZN, 2005 to 2011 — Date: 2021.
  - Land and terrestrial ecosystem accounts, 1990 to 2014 — Date: 2020.
  - Accounts for protected areas, 1900 to 2020 — Date: 2021.
  - Accounts for species: rhinoceros and cycad plant group — Date: 2021 (Experimental. Will not be published.)
  - Accounts for strategic water source areas, 1990 to 2020 — SANBI through EI4WS Project. Date: 2023.
  - Accounts for ecological infrastructure assets — Intended year of publication: 2024*.
  - Detailed catchment-level water resource accounts — CWRR 2015, 2019, 2024* (Experimental).
  - Ecosystem Accounts for South Africa: Report of the NCAVES Project — Stats SA, DFFE & SANBI. Date: 2021.
  - Additional experimental and in-development accounts listed with publication status preserved as in source content.
- Role of NCA outputs: linked to policy instruments such as National Water Act, NWRS, National Water and Sanitation Master Plan, NDP, NBSAP, SDG Targets, National Energy Efficiency Strategy, Provincial SDFs, Municipal Integrated Development Plans, National Biodiversity Economy Strategy, and others as specified in the source.

### Observations and implied priorities (from source content)
- Formalized inter-agency coordination for climate change statistics is limited, with the exception of NCA work; coordination must be strengthened to avoid duplication and to improve efficiency and use of scarce expertise.
- Statistics South Africa and DPME are well-positioned to lead inter-agency coordination and collaboration on climate change statistics and monitoring.
- Meeting new data demands (DGI 3, NDP, SDGs, AU Agenda 2063, etc.) may require budget augmentation for several statistical programs and capacity strengthening across spheres of government.

*IMF | Technical Assistance Report – South Africa Climate Change Statistics*

### 31. Bilateral and plenary discussions with the stakeholders identified key priorities for the

### 31. Bilateral and plenary discussions with the stakeholders identified key priorities for the

### Short-term and medium-term priorities; SECO program alignment
- Mission used the South African National Capital Accounting (NCA) Strategy and the IMF SECO questionnaire to identify environmental and climate change statistics to be covered under the SECO program.
- The IIF developed by Statistics South Africa was used to map and monitor data requirements on SDGs, NDP (2023), and AU Agenda 2063 goals.
- Recommendation: Integrate DGI-3 into the IIF framework to assist with monitoring supply and demand for policy-relevant indicators.
- Observation: Significant demand exists for environment and climate related data; the proposed SECO workplan represents an intersection of South African priorities, capacity development needs, and IMF Statistics Department support.

### Resource constraints and institutional capacity
- Finding: South Africa faces resource constraints in producing environment and climate change statistics on a sustainable basis; funding for statistical programs should be considered.
- Current situation: Many projects are donor funded for a finite life; lack of a well-resourced dedicated team for ongoing statistical production.
- Authorities stated they have technical capacity and skill sets but lack funds to create placements, especially on a permanent basis.

### Air Emissions Accounts (AEAs)
- Policy use: AEAs are important for monitoring the effect of climate mitigation policies and present information on gaseous and particulate substances released to the atmosphere by resident establishments and households as a result of production, consumption, and accumulation.
- Structure: AEAs are structured by industry (various levels of detail) and by household and are consistent with national accounts estimates of value-added and output; can be integrated with annual estimates of output or gross value-added at constant prices to derive GHG emission intensities by industry.
- Data source: Emission Inventory data for South Africa are available from 2000–2020 and are a key data source for AEAs.
- Producer: DFFE produces official GHG emissions inventory data annually and reports to the UNFCCC every other year; inventories are classified by technical processes (sources) and can be adjusted to compile AEAs.
- Note on adjustments: Two adjustments are needed to use inventory data for AEAs: (1) move from a territory-based to a residency-based recording and the inclusion of international transportation in total emissions; and (2) break down emission sources into production activities and households.
- Co-benefits and risks: GHGs and air pollutants are typically emitted by the same sources; mitigation reducing GHGs or fossil fuels typically reduces pollutants (e.g., PM2.5 and PM10), but focus on a certain pollutant can in at least one instance increase carbon dioxide emissions—highlighting need to monitor all air emissions.
- Institutional interaction: Interaction between DFFE and Statistics South Africa is essential to produce AEAs and to establish concordance between emission sources and economic activities; social learning, institution building, and close collaboration (including Memorandum of Understanding) are needed.

### Current statistical infrastructure relevant to AEAs
- Benchmark Supply and Use tables (SUTs) available from 2013–2020 but not on the latest ISIC classification; compilation level is 118 products and 213 industry groupings; SUTs publication level is 108 products and 124 industry groupings.
- Classification: Latest ISIC revision 4 has not been adopted; current classification is based on ISIC revision 3.
- Input-Output tables: Last published Input-Output tables (50 by 50 matrix) for 2014 have been discontinued due to resource constraints.
- Staffing: Current team only consists of six economists who work on SUTs, provincial GDP estimates, and satellite accounts.

### Carbon Footprint
- Rationale: South Africa is carbon intensive; carbon footprints are useful to monitor carbon intensity of final demand components, including exports, and to assess decoupling of GHG emissions from economic growth.
- Global context: Reductions in domestic emissions can be offset abroad due to global value chains and relocation of carbon-intensive production; carbon footprints help distinguish domestic improvements from displacement/substitution effects—relevant for potential carbon border adjustments (example: EU plan to put a carbon levy on imported goods).
- Current status: Statistics South Africa does not produce carbon footprint estimates currently; once AEAs are established, carbon footprints could be produced as an analytical application of AEAs focusing on final demand ("consumption") perspective.
- Presentation: Carbon footprints are generally national-level annual estimates, broken down by output industry, contributing industries, and final demand categories.
- Priority: Carbon footprint data did not emerge as a top priority at this stage but would fill the G20 DGI-3 data gap (Continuation of Recommendation 1).

### Energy Flow Accounts
- Need: Transition to a low-carbon economy implies change in energy mix; energy accounts are needed to monitor energy policies and integrate energy statistics with economic data per SEEA-CF.
- Uses: Energy accounts describe supply and use of energy by economic activity; allow calculation of energy intensities by economic activities, energy footprints, and structural decomposition analysis; combined with energy taxes/subsidies data they aid policy analysis.
- Historical production: Energy accounts produced by Statistics South Africa as part of the Environmental Economic Accounting (EEA) Compendium but not produced since 2017.
- Data coverage: 2017 EEA compendium contains physical energy supply and use tables for 2002–2013; summary account 2002–2013 covered supply for eight energy products and total energy use for eight industrial groupings, inventory changes, private consumption, exports, and distribution losses; a more detailed use table is provided for 2013.
- Staffing constraint: Three staff dedicated to environmental accounts; focus shifted to SEEA ecosystem accounts; energy accounts not updated due to resource constraints.
- Stakeholder issues: Previously published energy accounts display a four-year lag between last reference year (2013) and publication date (2017), limiting timeliness; data are too aggregated—stakeholders request more disaggregation by energy type and industrial breakdowns.
- Institutional data provision: DMRE is the primary provider/producer of energy balances for South Africa; data currently provided at national level but there is strong demand to explore feasibility of producing accounts at municipal level.
- In G20 DGI-3: Energy accounts identified as critical (Recommendation 2) and are priority in South African National Capital Accounting Strategy (goal 3).

### Environmental Activity Accounts and Government Revenue and Expenditures
- Current coverage: Statistics South Africa produces some national-level environmental protection expenditure data.
- GFS tax revenue data: Published at too high an aggregation for detailed analysis; SARS publishes tax statistics including environmental statistics at a more granular level.
- SARS environmental tax details include: air passenger tax, tire levy, plastic bag levy, electricity levy, incandescent lightbulb levy, CO2 tax on motor vehicle emissions, and carbon tax.
- Carbon Tax Act: Came into effect on June 1, 2019; administered and collected by SARS.
- Expenditure classification: Statistics South Africa publishes environmental protection expenditures at the 4-digit Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG) level (examples: Waste management, Wastewater management, Pollution abatement, Protection of biodiversity and landscape, R&D environmental protection, Environmental protection nec).
- Stakeholder interest: SANBI and others interested in learning what is captured, how classifications work, and items out of scope (noting much environmental protection expenditure is done through NGOs and civil society).

### Capacity development activities proposed
- Proposed activities:
  - Stakeholders workshop on macro-critical environment and climate change statistics.
  - Given large number of stakeholders, additional workshops could allow for training on energy and air emission accounts and on-going technical support over the duration of the project.
  - Support establishment of collaboration among stakeholders and encourage a coordination mechanism at management level to set priorities and enable data sharing across institutions.

### Medium-term work program and future data areas
- Potential future work: Climate-related government expenditures and carbon footprints of foreign direct investment (FDI).
- SECO project horizon: Short time horizon ends in December 2024.
- Priorities to request in the future: Technical assistance and training on developing data to fill DGI-3 gaps:
  - Recommendation 3: carbon footprints of foreign direct investment (FDI).
  - Recommendation 6: climate-sustaining and climate-damaging subsidies.
  - Recommendation 7: climate change mitigation and adaptation current and capital expenditures by institutional sector.

### Conclusions and priority recommendations (mission proposals and SECO outputs)
- Recommendations proposed:
  - Establish a centralized environment and climate change database with formalized institutional arrangement for coordination to avoid duplication, ensure complementarity, and serve as a one-stop repository for indicators (authorities to determine which indicators; could include DGI-3 indicators); integration into IIF is at authorities’ discretion.
  - Establish a coordination mechanism at a decision-making level to ensure continuous coordination; updated Statistics Act could provide leverage for Statistics South Africa to act as lead coordinator. The Climate Change Bill (introduced in the National Assembly on 24 October 2023) should support data collection. SARB is lead institution for reporting to FSB and IAG on DGI-3; given DGI recommendations 1-7 focus on climate statistics, broader coordination is warranted. Recommendation that Statistics South Africa lead coordination leveraging the amended Statistics Act 2023 and experience with NCA; authorities could establish such a mechanism by March 2024. (This is a recommendation to the authorities and not a project deliverable.)
  - Develop first air emission accounts for South Africa by leveraging UNFCCC inventories produced by DFFE with Statistics South Africa; AEAs could cover both GHG emissions and other air pollutants.
  - Improve coverage of energy flow accounts and reestablish dissemination.
- Table 4: Priority recommendations and target dates (as proposed)
  - March 2024 — Establish a centralized environment and climate change database with formalized institutional arrangement for coordination — Responsible Institutions: Stats SA; DFFE/DMRE/NT/SARB/DPME
  - November 2024 — Improve the coverage of energy flow accounts and reestablish dissemination — Responsible Institutions: Stats SA, DMRE
  - February 2026 — Develop preliminary first set of AEAs and disseminate — Responsible Institutions: Stats SA, DFFE

*IMF | Technical Assistance Report – South Africa Climate Change Statistics*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/tar/2024/english/tarea2024014.pdf_