## REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN Report on National Accounts Mission (April 8–12, 2024) ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN Report on National Accounts Mission (April 8–12, 2024)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/tar/2024/english/tarea2024071-print-pdf.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/tar/2024/english/tarea2024071-print-pdf.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/tar/2024/english/tarea2024071-print-pdf.pdf.json) --- ### Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations - Mission: CCAMTAC technical assistance mission on national accounts, April 8–12, 2024. - Purpose: Reviewed results of the 2024 major revision of national accounts time series and provided recommendations prior to publication. - Key outcomes: - SA conducted several surveys improving measures of the non-observed economy (NOE); research indicates NOE in some services is larger than previous estimates. - 2024 major revision updates gross value added (GVA) for affected activities for 2017–2023; historical time series will be revised back from 2017 but published starting 2017 (earlier years available on request). - Resulting change: nominal level of GDP increases in the range of 10–12 percent; largest increase in the growth rate of real GDP is 0.8 percentage points. - Main drivers of nominal GDP increase: restaurants and construction, supported by 2023 NOE survey findings. - 2023 NOE survey details: - Covered 7,000 households including more than 32,9 00 household members. - Household expenditure compiled by weighing expenses incurred by each household. - Results slightly higher than previous estimates for almost all services; particularly large difference in consumption of food services. - Priority recommendations (Table 1): - July 2024: Prepare a press release outlining main findings of the 2024 major revision of national accounts time series. — Responsible: SA - July 2024: Publish revised time series of GDP by production, expenditure, and income. — Responsible: SA ### Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations — Overview of Actions and Status - Outcome: Source data are adequate for compilation of the national accounts. - Priority action/milestones, target completion, status as of July 2024 (high/medium priority indicated by H/M): - Conduct logical control of the initial results of the NOE survey. — Target: December 2023 — Status: Complete — Priority: H - Develop the NOE survey database and prepare the main results. — Target: April 2024 — Status: Complete — Priority: H - Use the results of the NOE survey in compiling GDP. — Target: April 2024 — Status: Complete — Priority: H - Prepare a press release outlining the main findings of the 2024 major revision of national accounts time series. — Target: July 2024 — Status: Ongoing — Priority: H - Prepare revised time series of GDP by production, expenditure and income. — Target: July 2024 — Status: Ongoing — Priority: H - Publish the revised historical time series of GDP back from 2017. — Target: July 2024 — Status: Ongoing — Priority: H - Publish revised time series of GDP by production, expenditure, and income. — Target: July 2024 — Status: Ongoing — Priority: H - Collect data sources for medium and small enterprises on a discrete basis. — Target: January 2025 — Status: Ongoing — Priority: H - Implement the new reference year 2024 in the national accounts time series. — Target: November 2025 — Status: Ongoing — Priority: H - Conduct sector-specific NOE surveys in every five years and update the national accounts time series. — Target: 2028-29 — Status: Ongoing — Priority: M ### A. Major Revision of National Accounts Time Series — Findings and Recommended Actions - Revision context: - Major revision undertaken in 2024 (every five years) updates historical time series based on methodological changes or improved data sources. - Previous major revision: 2019 (main changes affected agricultural data). - 2024 main changes affect NOE estimates in services: construction, hotels and restaurants, healthcare, education, and others. - Aggregate impact on GDP at current prices (Table 2 — exact figures): - GDP at current prices (trillion UZS) - Before the revision: 2017 318.5; 2018 426.6; 2019 532.7; 2020 605.5; 2021 738.4; 2022 896.6; 2023 1066.6 - After the revision: 2017 356.5; 2018 473.7; 2019 594.7; 2020 668.0; 2021 820.5; 2022 995.6; 2023 1192.2 - Changes, in percent: 2017 11.9; 2018 11.0; 2019 11.6; 2020 10.3; 2021 11.1; 2022 11.0; 2023 11.8 - Real GDP growth rates (Table 3 — exact figures): - Real GDP growth rates y-o-y, percent - Before the revision: 2018 5.5; 2019 6.0; 2020 2.0; 2021 7.4; 2022 5.7; 2023 6.0 - After the revision: 2018 5.6; 2019 6.8; 2020 1.6; 2021 8.0; 2022 6.0; 2023 6.3 - Changes, in percentage points: 2018 0.1; 2019 0.8; 2020 -0.4; 2021 0.6; 2022 0.3; 2023 0.3 - Note: Main trend of real GDP did not change significantly; maximum change in growth rate was 0.8 percentage points in 2019. - Sector-specific GVA impacts: - Food and accommodation services (Table 4 — GVA at current prices, trillion UZS): - Before the revision: 2017 1.9; 2018 2.5; 2019 3.1; 2020 2.8; 2021 4.1; 2022 6.4; 2023 8.9 - After the revision: 2017 16.0; 2018 18.7; 2019 25.1; 2020 25.5; 2021 34.0; 2022 50.6; 2023 68.1 - Changes, in percent: 2017 719.4; 2018 657.6; 2019 700.5; 2020 814.6; 2021 722.6; 2022 692.5; 2023 664.0 - Construction (Table 5 — GVA at current prices, trillion UZS): - Before the revision: 2017 15.1; 2018 22.0; 2019 30.4; 2020 37.3; 2021 45.6; 2022 54.3; 2023 62.6 - After the revision: 2017 22.9; 2018 32.8; 2019 45.2; 2020 51.9; 2021 63.6; 2022 73.2; 2023 84.9 - Changes, in percent: 2017 51.3; 2018 49.3; 2019 48.4; 2020 39.1; 2021 39.6; 2022 34.9; 2023 35.8 - Mission assessment: - New NOE estimates based on sector-specific NOE surveys are much more reliable than pre-revision estimates. - Publication of new estimates will improve overall quality of national accounts. - Next major revision scheduled for 2029. - Mission recommended revising historical time series of GDP from 2016 backwards; series up to 2016 will not be published on the website but provided to users on request. - Next CCAMTAC TA mission will assist with retropolation in accordance with best international practice. - Recommended Actions (explicit): - Prepare a press release outlining the main findings of the 2024 major revision of national accounts time series. - Prepare and publish the revised time series of GDP by production, expenditure, and income. - Conduct sector-specific NOE surveys every five years and update the national accounts time series. ### B. Quarterly GDP — Current Status and Recommended Actions - Status and recent work: - Previous CCAMTAC TA assisted SA to implement discrete time series of quarterly GDP starting from 2019. Current quarterly GDP time series covers 2019–2023. - Some output data for medium and small enterprises still based on cumulative data sources. - 2023 project launched to revise statistical questionnaires so that all statistical forms will collect data on a discrete basis by project end, improving quality of quarterly GDP. - 2024 cooperation project to change reference year of quarterly GDP from 2019 to 2024; next CCAMTAC TA missions to assist SA in implementing the new reference year 2024 and compiling chain-linked quarterly GDP time series per international best practice. - Recommended Actions (explicit): - Collect data sources for medium and small enterprises on a discrete basis. - Implement the new reference year 2024 in the national accounts time series. ### C. Officials Met During the Mission - List of officials and affiliations: - Mr. Bakhodir Begalov — Director of SA - Mr. Abrorali Mamadjanov — Head of the Macroeconomic Indicators and National Accounts Department (NAD), SA - Mr. Umarjon Obidov — Deputy Head of the NAD, SA - Ms. Zioda Kamilova — Head of Annual National Accounts Division, SA - Mr. Odiljon Mamadaliev — Head of the International Cooperation Department, SA - Mr. Abdugafir Mirzakhidov — Head of the Service Statistics Department, SA - Mr. Akrom Sultanov — Head of the Coordination and Monitoring Department, SA - Mr. Rakhmatjon Urusbayev — Head of the Satellite Accounts Division, NAD, SA - Ms. Tatyana Kuksina — Chief Specialist, NAD, SA *Source: IMF | CCAMTAC Report – Republic of Uzbekistan National Accounts Statistics Mission (July 2024).* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/tar/2024/english/tarea2024071-print-pdf.pdf_