## 1. A technical assistance (TA) mission on External Sector Statistics (ESS) was conducted for ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [1. A technical assistance (TA) mission on External Sector Statistics (ESS) was conducted for](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/tar/2024/english/tarea2024077-print-pdf.pdf) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/-/media/files/publications/tar/2024/english/tarea2024077-print-pdf.pdf.md) - [Structured JSON version](/-/media/files/publications/tar/2024/english/tarea2024077-print-pdf.pdf.json) --- ### Mission objective and participants - Main purpose: assist the Statistics Department of Montserrat (SDM) in extrapolating results of the Visitor Expenditure Survey (VES) conducted by the SDM and Montserrat Tourism Division (MTD) to improve estimates of travel services credits in the current account of the balance of payments (BOP). - Mission part of CARTAC work program on ESS and conducted in response to a request from the SDM. - SDM compilers participated; consultations with MTD, the Ministry of Finance and Economic Management, and the Cabinet of Montserrat. ### VES design, fieldwork, and data processing - VES conducted using questionnaire designed in July 2023 TA mission. - Field period: March 2024; targeted departing passengers at John A. Osborne Airport and Little Bay ferry terminal. - Total responses collected: 1,119. - Enumerators: SDM hired 22 temporary employees; training conducted by SDM and the mission (online). - Data collection method: questionnaire loaded on tablet computers; direct upload to an online platform. - Data cleaning: 61 responses excluded for missing key information; 15 excluded as outliers; no duplicate responses found. - Note: Since 2024 the ferry is operating the whole year. ### Key survey results and statistics - Average Daily Expenditure (ADE) for overnight visitors: US$185.3 (EC dollar 500.3). - Confidence interval: with 95 percent confidence ADE falls within the range of US$182.85 and US$187.75 (given the true sample size). - ADE in 2010 VES for overnight visitors: US$108.6 (EC dollar 293.22). - ADE for excursionists (day-trip visitors), estimated for the first time: US$155. - Cruise survey results: expected to become available in December this year. - Average length of stay from VES 2024: around 11 nights. - Arrival ED cards statistics for 2010 show average length of stay around 10 nights. - Expenditure by category for overnight visitors (percentage shares): - Food and beverage (including restaurants): around 34 percent. - Accommodation: 27 percent. - Activities: 21 percent. - Transportation: 11 percent. - Other: about 6 percent. - Residency composition (arrival ED cards average 2015–2019 for overnight visitors): - Caribbean: 39 percent. - United Kingdom: 29 percent. - United States: 28 percent. - Other countries: 4 percent. - Residency composition (arrival ED cards average 2015–2019 for excursionists): - Caribbean: 52 percent. - United Kingdom: 22 percent. - United States: 21 percent. - Other countries: 6 percent. ### Updated travel credits estimates and methodology - New estimate for travel credits in 2023: US$17.4 million. - This represents 32 percent of current account credits. - Previous estimate for travel credits in 2023: US$8.7 million. - Previously represented 15 percent of current account credits. - Main drivers of higher new estimate: - Higher ADE from 2024 VES versus 2010 VES. - Inclusion of excursionists in the new estimate (previous estimate included only overnight visitors). - ADE from 2010 VES was not previously adjusted for local inflation nor for length of stay. - Estimation model: - Travel credits = ADE × number of visitors × average length of stay (number of days). - Segmentation by country of residency: Caribbean, United Kingdom, United States, and other countries. - New ADE deflated using the consumer price index for Montserrat back to 2014; ADE from 2010 VES inflated for 2011–2013 using same method. - Average length of stay currently based on 2010 estimate because VES 2024 may not be representative (St. Patrick’s festival effect). - Observed change in estimates since 2014: new estimates are around 100 percent higher than previous ones (Figure 1 comparison). ### ADE by residency groups (Table values) - Table 2: Calculation for Visitors’ Categories (US$) - Caribbean: Previous ADE (2010 VES) 122.51 → New ADE (2024 VES) 201 → Difference 78.49 - United Kingdom: Previous ADE (2010 VES) 100.16 → New ADE (2024 VES) 219 → Difference 118.84 - United States: Previous ADE (2010 VES) 116.44 → New ADE (2024 VES) 222 → Difference 105.56 - Other countries: Previous ADE (2010 VES) 104.13 → New ADE (2024 VES) 185 → Difference 80.87 ### Data quality issues and limitations - ED card data limitations: - ED cards categorize length of stay into buckets (<4 days, 4 to 7 days, 8 to 10 days, >10 days, not stated) which prevents precise average length-of-stay calculation required for travel credits. - Attempts to update average length of stay from CTO-TIMS (ED card data) for 2011–2023 showed discrepancies with the 2010-based estimate. - Seasonality concerns: - VES 2024 conducted during St. Patrick’s festival; sample likely affected by higher return of Montserratians living abroad (UK and US), making it possibly unrepresentative for the rest of the year. - ADE and length of stay likely differ between high and low seasons. ### Priority recommendations and action plan (target dates and responsibilities) - Priority recommendations (PR) and targets: - PR: During the low tourism season the SDM and MTD conduct the VES on visitors departing Montserrat by air and ferry (including excursionists). Target completion: September 2024. Responsible: SDM and MTD. - PR: Include visitors arriving by cruise ships and yachts in the estimation of travel credits and revise the travel credits series in the compiled BOP. Target completion: December 2024. Responsible: SDM. - PR: The SDM and MTD conduct the VES on visitors departing Montserrat by cruise ships during the high tourist season. Target completion: December 2024. Responsible: SDM and MTD. - High-priority and methodological actions: - H: Include cruise ship crew members disembarking in Montserrat in estimation of travel credits and revise time series in compiled BOP. Target completion: December 2024. - H: Extract visitors' average length of stay from the CTO-TIMS database categorized by country of residence and use it to estimate travel credits. Target completion: September 2024. - Mission recommendations (explicit): - Extract visitors' average length of stay from CTO-TIMS database categorized by country of residence and use it to estimate travel credits. - Include visitors arriving by cruise ships and yachts in the estimation of travel credits and revise the travel credits series in the compiled BOP. - Include cruise ship crew members disembarking in Montserrat in the estimation of travel credits and revise the time series in the compiled BOP. - Undertake a VES during the low season (April to September) and conduct cruise surveys in April, November, and December. ### Operational observations and next steps - Survey logistics improvements: - Use of tablets and direct online platform reduces time and resources vs. paper-based approach. - Supervisory oversight provided on-site; enumerators submitted test responses during training. - Planned follow-ups: - Low-season VES expected to be completed before September 2024 to capture seasonality. - Cruise visitor and crew VES planned for completion by December 2024 to incorporate cruise expenditure into travel credits. ### Average Daily Expenditure (ADE) by country of residency - The ADE differs somewhat between the four groups. - Due to the uneven distribution of visitors and the underrepresentation of United States and United Kingdom visitors, it could be argued that for the BOP compilation the overall average should be used for all visitors irrespective of their country of residency. ### Expenditure distribution by category for excursionists - Activities: about 32 percent - Transportation: 27 percent - Food and beverage, including expenditure on restaurants: 26 percent - Other expenditures: about 14 percent ### Updated plan for the visitor expenditure surveys (VES) - Low-season survey: - Survey locations: John A. Osborne Airport and the Little Bay ferry terminal. - Timing: during the low season, from April through September this year. - Yacht visitors: - No strategy developed due to uncertainty about when and where they can be surveyed. - Some information was collected on yacht visitors from the VES, however, not significant. - Cruise visitors: - One cruise ship with around 100 passengers visited Montserrat during the mission. - Enumerators captured 10 responses for the pilot cruise survey. - The pilot was a success: all responses aligned with questionnaire expectations. - The SDM will continue to conduct the cruise survey in accordance with the cruise arrival schedule of 2024 (April, November, and December). ### Population size and suggested sample for low season and cruise survey (Table 3) - Tourists, low season: - Departing visitors: 4,965 - Conventional sample (error 2.5%): 1,173 - Suggested sample: 496 - Margin of error (suggested sample): 4.4% - Cruise passengers: - Departing visitors: 3,044 - Conventional sample (error 2.5%): 1,021 - Suggested sample: 400 - Margin of error (suggested sample): 4.9% ### Recommendations (from survey planning) - During the low tourism season, the SDM and MTD conduct the VES on visitors departing Montserrat by air and ferry (including excursionists). - The SDM and MTD conduct the VES on visitors departing Montserrat by cruise ships during the high tourist season. ### Officials met during the mission (selected) - Ms. Siobhan Tuitt — Chief Statistician – Statistics Department Montserrat - Mrs. Rosetta West-Gerald — Director - Montserrat Tourism Division - Mrs. Sarah Tucker — Governor of Montserrat - Mr. Joseph Farrell — Premier of Montserrat - Mrs. Lindorna Lambert-Sweeney — Financial Secretary – Ministry of Finance - Mrs. Daphne Cassell — Permanent Secretary – Office of the Premier - Additional Statistics Department Montserrat staff and media experts listed in the mission record. ### Completed action points (Appendix I) - PR: During the high tourism season, the SDM and MTD conduct the VES on visitors departing Montserrat by air and ferry (including excursionists), using questionnaire in Appendix II. — March 2024 — Completed - H: Conduct a pilot cruise survey at the ferry terminal to test the tablets, the questionnaire, and the Wi-Fi connection. — October 2023 — Completed - H: Use QR codes to provide easy access to the online version of the surveys. — October 2023 — Completed - H: Ensure sufficient IT resources, including tablet computers for conducting the VES. — October 2023 — Completed - H: Coordinate actions to ensure that SDM and MTD staff has access to passenger departure areas and reach a formal agreement with the airport and Montserrat Port Authority. — October 2023 — Completed *Source: IMF | CARTAC mission report for the Statistics Department of Montserrat, March 18–28, 2024.* ### 1. A technical assistance (TA) mission on External Sector Statistics (ESS) was conducted for ### A technical assistance (TA) mission on External Sector Statistics (ESS) was conducted for the Statistics Department of Montserrat, during March 18–28, 2024 ### Mission objective and participants - Main purpose: assist the Statistics Department of Montserrat (SDM) in extrapolating results of the Visitor Expenditure Survey (VES) conducted by the SDM and Montserrat Tourism Division (MTD) to improve estimates of travel services credits in the current account of the balance of payments (BOP). - Mission part of CARTAC work program on ESS and conducted in response to a request from the SDM. - SDM compilers participated; consultations with MTD, the Ministry of Finance and Economic Management, and the Cabinet of Montserrat. ### VES design, fieldwork, and data processing - VES conducted using questionnaire designed in July 2023 TA mission. - Field period: March 2024; targeted departing passengers at John A. Osborne Airport and Little Bay ferry terminal. - Total responses collected: 1,119. - Enumerators: SDM hired 22 temporary employees; training conducted by SDM and the mission (online). - Data collection method: questionnaire loaded on tablet computers; direct upload to an online platform. - Data cleaning: 61 responses excluded for missing key information; 15 excluded as outliers; no duplicate responses found. - Note: Since 2024 the ferry is operating the whole year. ### Key survey results and statistics - Average Daily Expenditure (ADE) for overnight visitors: US$185.3 (EC dollar 500.3). - Confidence interval: with 95 percent confidence ADE falls within the range of US$182.85 and US$187.75 (given the true sample size). - ADE in 2010 VES for overnight visitors: US$108.6 (EC dollar 293.22). - ADE for excursionists (day-trip visitors), estimated for the first time: US$155. - Cruise survey results: expected to become available in December this year. - Average length of stay from VES 2024: around 11 nights. - Arrival ED cards statistics for 2010 show average length of stay around 10 nights. - Expenditure by category for overnight visitors (percentage shares): - Food and beverage (including restaurants): around 34 percent. - Accommodation: 27 percent. - Activities: 21 percent. - Transportation: 11 percent. - Other: about 6 percent. - Residency composition (arrival ED cards average 2015–2019 for overnight visitors): - Caribbean: 39 percent. - United Kingdom: 29 percent. - United States: 28 percent. - Other countries: 4 percent. - Residency composition (arrival ED cards average 2015–2019 for excursionists): - Caribbean: 52 percent. - United Kingdom: 22 percent. - United States: 21 percent. - Other countries: 6 percent. ### Updated travel credits estimates and methodology - New estimate for travel credits in 2023: US$17.4 million. - This represents 32 percent of current account credits. - Previous estimate for travel credits in 2023: US$8.7 million. - Previously represented 15 percent of current account credits. - Main drivers of higher new estimate: - Higher ADE from 2024 VES versus 2010 VES. - Inclusion of excursionists in the new estimate (previous estimate included only overnight visitors). - ADE from 2010 VES was not previously adjusted for local inflation nor for length of stay. - Estimation model: - Travel credits = ADE × number of visitors × average length of stay (number of days). - Segmentation by country of residency: Caribbean, United Kingdom, United States, and other countries. - New ADE deflated using the consumer price index for Montserrat back to 2014; ADE from 2010 VES inflated for 2011–2013 using same method. - Average length of stay currently based on 2010 estimate because VES 2024 may not be representative (St. Patrick’s festival effect). - Observed change in estimates since 2014: new estimates are around 100 percent higher than previous ones (Figure 1 comparison). ### ADE by residency groups (Table values) - Table 2: Calculation for Visitors’ Categories (US$) - Caribbean: Previous ADE (2010 VES) 122.51 → New ADE (2024 VES) 201 → Difference 78.49 - United Kingdom: Previous ADE (2010 VES) 100.16 → New ADE (2024 VES) 219 → Difference 118.84 - United States: Previous ADE (2010 VES) 116.44 → New ADE (2024 VES) 222 → Difference 105.56 - Other countries: Previous ADE (2010 VES) 104.13 → New ADE (2024 VES) 185 → Difference 80.87 ### Data quality issues and limitations - ED card data limitations: - ED cards categorize length of stay into buckets (<4 days, 4 to 7 days, 8 to 10 days, >10 days, not stated) which prevents precise average length-of-stay calculation required for travel credits. - Attempts to update average length of stay from CTO-TIMS (ED card data) for 2011–2023 showed discrepancies with the 2010-based estimate. - Seasonality concerns: - VES 2024 conducted during St. Patrick’s festival; sample likely affected by higher return of Montserratians living abroad (UK and US), making it possibly unrepresentative for the rest of the year. - ADE and length of stay likely differ between high and low seasons. ### Priority recommendations and action plan (target dates and responsibilities) - Priority recommendations (PR) and targets: - PR: During the low tourism season the SDM and MTD conduct the VES on visitors departing Montserrat by air and ferry (including excursionists). Target completion: September 2024. Responsible: SDM and MTD. - PR: Include visitors arriving by cruise ships and yachts in the estimation of travel credits and revise the travel credits series in the compiled BOP. Target completion: December 2024. Responsible: SDM. - PR: The SDM and MTD conduct the VES on visitors departing Montserrat by cruise ships during the high tourist season. Target completion: December 2024. Responsible: SDM and MTD. - High-priority and methodological actions: - H: Include cruise ship crew members disembarking in Montserrat in estimation of travel credits and revise time series in compiled BOP. Target completion: December 2024. - H: Extract visitors' average length of stay from the CTO-TIMS database categorized by country of residence and use it to estimate travel credits. Target completion: September 2024. - Mission recommendations (explicit): - Extract visitors' average length of stay from CTO-TIMS database categorized by country of residence and use it to estimate travel credits. - Include visitors arriving by cruise ships and yachts in the estimation of travel credits and revise the travel credits series in the compiled BOP. - Include cruise ship crew members disembarking in Montserrat in the estimation of travel credits and revise the time series in the compiled BOP. - Undertake a VES during the low season (April to September) and conduct cruise surveys in April, November, and December. ### Operational observations and next steps - Survey logistics improvements: - Use of tablets and direct online platform reduces time and resources vs. paper-based approach. - Supervisory oversight provided on-site; enumerators submitted test responses during training. - Planned follow-ups: - Low-season VES expected to be completed before September 2024 to capture seasonality. - Cruise visitor and crew VES planned for completion by December 2024 to incorporate cruise expenditure into travel credits. *Source: IMF | CARTAC mission report for the Statistics Department of Montserrat, March 18–28, 2024.* ### 21. Figure 6 shows the ADE for excursionists by country of residency as calculated from the ### tarea2024077-print-pdf - 21. Figure 6 shows the ADE for excursionists by country of residency as calculated from the ### Average Daily Expenditure (ADE) by country of residency - The ADE differs somewhat between the four groups. - Due to the uneven distribution of visitors and the underrepresentation of United States and United Kingdom visitors, it could be argued that for the BOP compilation the overall average should be used for all visitors irrespective of their country of residency. ### Expenditure distribution by category for excursionists - Activities: about 32 percent - Transportation: 27 percent - Food and beverage, including expenditure on restaurants: 26 percent - Other expenditures: about 14 percent ### Updated plan for the visitor expenditure surveys (VES) - Low-season survey: - Survey locations: John A. Osborne Airport and the Little Bay ferry terminal. - Timing: during the low season, from April through September this year. - Yacht visitors: - No strategy developed due to uncertainty about when and where they can be surveyed. - Some information was collected on yacht visitors from the VES, however, not significant. - Cruise visitors: - One cruise ship with around 100 passengers visited Montserrat during the mission. - Enumerators captured 10 responses for the pilot cruise survey. - The pilot was a success: all responses aligned with questionnaire expectations. - The SDM will continue to conduct the cruise survey in accordance with the cruise arrival schedule of 2024 (April, November, and December). ### Population size and suggested sample for low season and cruise survey (Table 3) - Tourists, low season: - Departing visitors: 4,965 - Conventional sample (error 2.5%): 1,173 - Suggested sample: 496 - Margin of error (suggested sample): 4.4% - Cruise passengers: - Departing visitors: 3,044 - Conventional sample (error 2.5%): 1,021 - Suggested sample: 400 - Margin of error (suggested sample): 4.9% ### Recommendations (from survey planning) - During the low tourism season, the SDM and MTD conduct the VES on visitors departing Montserrat by air and ferry (including excursionists). - The SDM and MTD conduct the VES on visitors departing Montserrat by cruise ships during the high tourist season. ### Officials met during the mission (selected) - Ms. Siobhan Tuitt — Chief Statistician – Statistics Department Montserrat - Mrs. Rosetta West-Gerald — Director - Montserrat Tourism Division - Mrs. Sarah Tucker — Governor of Montserrat - Mr. Joseph Farrell — Premier of Montserrat - Mrs. Lindorna Lambert-Sweeney — Financial Secretary – Ministry of Finance - Mrs. Daphne Cassell — Permanent Secretary – Office of the Premier - Additional Statistics Department Montserrat staff and media experts listed in the mission record. ### Completed action points (Appendix I) - PR: During the high tourism season, the SDM and MTD conduct the VES on visitors departing Montserrat by air and ferry (including excursionists), using questionnaire in Appendix II. — March 2024 — Completed - H: Conduct a pilot cruise survey at the ferry terminal to test the tablets, the questionnaire, and the Wi-Fi connection. — October 2023 — Completed - H: Use QR codes to provide easy access to the online version of the surveys. — October 2023 — Completed - H: Ensure sufficient IT resources, including tablet computers for conducting the VES. — October 2023 — Completed - H: Coordinate actions to ensure that SDM and MTD staff has access to passenger departure areas and reach a formal agreement with the airport and Montserrat Port Authority. — October 2023 — Completed *Source: tarea2024077-print-pdf* --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/tar/2024/english/tarea2024077-print-pdf.pdf_